Hearing Creighton is #10

[Edrick]

No its not.

There is no probability of 12 next year. There is some profitability of 9. I understand that we were all told that there would be no math, but..... some > none

[BillEsq]

No its not.

There is no probability of 12 next year. There is some profitability of 9. I understand that we were all told that there would be no math, but..... some > none

Nah you loose money with 9. Especially if Fox is paying the tiering . Plus 9 gives you the problem of one team not playing a game every weekend. In the course of the reg season that 2 weekends of lost sales/rev. Fox looses out too now it gets stuck with just 4 C7 games to put on tv a weekend versus 6 with a twelve team league. So now fox is loosing out on revenue on league advertisement (they pay on adds shown during games, less games less revenue). Teams are loosing weekend basketball games (at least one home) and the revenue associated with it. Unless they scramble a pay NJIT or some other 300 plus RPI independent to play them. So now you have lost revenue and a choice between taking 2 weeks off or being forced to schedule and RPI stinker.

with 9 teams Fox loses inventory and advertisement revenue and additional markets, with 9 the C7 plus loose out on gate revenue and potentially get stuck scheduling a buy game rpi sink in the middle of the conference schedule.

Add to the fact that now you have the same logistical problems in all of your non-rev sports so now they are loosing even more money in the non-revs. So once you total it all together you end up with a net loss. I know bball is the money sport and most people could care less about non-revs but Athletic Departments just can't ignore them.

Yes they might go to 9 but it would be a horrible business decision.

[yorost]

I don't know why you think that. If they go with 9 what reason other them money would make them do that? Take the ifs away, they have the money figures, so why would they do something costly just to have 9?

[xu95]

It will be 9 or 10 next year. There is no chance of 12 next year. Unless they decide on Creighton it will only be Xavier and Butler joining next year. There is still no consensus between Richmond, Dayton, and St. Louis.

[BillEsq]

I don't know why you think that. If they go with 9 what reason other them money would make them do that? Take the ifs away, they have the money figures, so why would they do something costly just to have 9?

I have no clue why they would go to 9. 10 makes more sense then 9, and they still lose money with 10. I am near certain they would start with 12. Heck even if they announced 9/10 2013 and 12 in 2014, i would still fully expect 12 by 2013.

Put it this way the only way 9 teams makes any financial sense is if FOX if paying basically the same amount regardless of it being a 9 team 10 team or 12 team conference. If FOX is tiering the money like all rumors suggest and is common in most media contracts less teams quickly looses money to the 12 teams. The 9 teams because of the logistical problems of having an odd number of teams creates even more logistical problems and lost revenue. The other problem with 9 over 10 is that due to your non-revs you now are not just loosing potential revenue your actually creating greater expenses.

FOX has every incentive to tier their media plan.

12 teams gives them more games and more inventory
12 teams gives them more games so more advertisement money (advertisers pay with add placement in games- more games more add placement more money)
12 teams gives fox more markets. this helps two ways
first more advertisement revenue potential and secondly and most importantly it allows more regions for Fox to get more leverage in increasing its FOX sports bundle rates. (forget anything else in cable this is what makes money.... its not who watches what anymore heck our cable packages have hundreds of stations you don't watch... you still get charged for them. Fox will make more money off these stations by people who don't watch them then by people who do... Fox obviously will be able to increase the fees for its stations where it has a strong market presence. Having a team in a market increases this presence. Fox also gains leverage where it already has a regional presence where it can bundle its regional networks with its new sports tiers.

Fox is pumping allot of money into this. Yes is it possible that they would pay money to the C7 sure... but this is business, they are in it to make money not for the purity of college basketball. But we have all seen bad business deals before maybe the C7 have a golden ticket i don't know. I just wouldn't count on it.

[BillEsq]

It will be 9 or 10 next year. There is no chance of 12 next year. Unless they decide on Creighton it will only be Xavier and Butler joining next year. There is still no consensus between Richmond, Dayton, and St. Louis.

Do you really think Fox would be putting up this much money if it didn't know what schools it was getting? I mean i know the internet rumors are great but lets look at this practically. We are talking 9 figures. The neither the C7 or Fox would have taken this risk if they hadn't decided the most important part of your conference (ummm... who is in it?)

Heck i'm not saying SLU Rich Dayton or X or B are in for that matter as far as i know the c7 are bringing in duquesne and the university of south Guam. But you don't do that last. Its not media deal first, teams last its the other way around. Just because you and i don't know and the internet rumor mill doesn't know doesn't mean they haven't decided. No one really cares if you or i know. if anything it benefits them to keep us in the dark. Jesus, their not going to negotiate leaving the BE sign contracts worth 100s of millions of dollars and then go now who do we invite.

[yorost]

I don't know why you think that. If they go with 9 what reason other them money would make them do that? Take the ifs away, they have the money figures, so why would they do something costly just to have 9?

I have no clue why they would go to 9. 10 makes more sense then 9, and they still lose money with 10. I am near certain they would start with 12. Heck even if they announced 9/10 2013 and 12 in 2014, i would still fully expect 12 by 2013.

Put it this way the only way 9 teams makes any financial sense is if FOX if paying basically the same amount regardless of it being a 9 team 10 team or 12 team conference. If FOX is tiering the money like all rumors suggest and is common in most media contracts less teams quickly looses money to the 12 teams. The 9 teams because of the logistical problems of having an odd number of teams creates even more logistical problems and lost revenue. The other problem with 9 over 10 is that due to your non-revs you now are not just loosing potential revenue your actually creating greater expenses.

FOX has every incentive to tier their media plan.

12 teams gives them more games and more inventory
12 teams gives them more games so more advertisement money (advertisers pay with add placement in games- more games more add placement more money)
12 teams gives fox more markets. this helps two ways
first more advertisement revenue potential and secondly and most importantly it allows more regions for Fox to get more leverage in increasing its FOX sports bundle rates. (forget anything else in cable this is what makes money.... its not who watches what anymore heck our cable packages have hundreds of stations you don't watch... you still get charged for them. Fox will make more money off these stations by people who don't watch them then by people who do... Fox obviously will be able to increase the fees for its stations where it has a strong market presence. Having a team in a market increases this presence. Fox also gains leverage where it already has a regional presence where it can bundle its regional networks with its new sports tiers.

Fox is pumping allot of money into this. Yes is it possible that they would pay money to the C7 sure... but this is business, they are in it to make money not for the purity of college basketball. But we have all seen bad business deals before maybe the C7 have a golden ticket i don't know. I just wouldn't count on it.

Don't worry, I understand all your arguments. If it turns out to be a single transition season with all teams announced immediately, I just won't buy it being for any reason other than they crunched the numbers and this was better than 12 immediately. Your guess is as good as mine, but there is room between the exit fees and Fox maybe needing them this first year more than waiting a year.

[BillEsq]

yorost...

you have the right logic anything can happen (after all at one point the CUSA was going to merge with the Mountain West). Your also right that this all has to do with money.

Playing devils advocate i could see where you could start by announcing 9. Say the C7 takes X and Creighton and gives the A-10 notice that it will be taking SLU, D, and B in 2014. This means they would just have to pay Creightons' small exit fee and a 2 million for X. They would then have to pay only 1 million for SLU D and B in 2014 saving 3 million. The BE then spends the next 3 months negotiating with the A-10 for the release of the other three and X. Maybe so they could get them all in 2013 for 1.5 million in exits instead of 2 million. Now in the summer you can announce 12 teams in 2013 and the conference just saved 2 million dollars, and gets the full fox windfall in 2013. You also get the added benefit of a second press conference (no publicity is bad publicity). The A-10 wins by getting 6 million up front to start rebuilding its league's image.

Obviously feel free to switch the schools around and insert the school of your choice. So it might work to announce only 9 or 10 schools early.

[lukecu]

i guess 12 is possible but from recent reports i just assumed it would be 9 or 10 to start then 12 the year after.

[Edrick]

Yes BE. The value proposition of the league has already been defined for Fox. The teams that the network will go to sponsors with are among the 9. Of course it "matters" to Fox who rounds out the conference, but the material part of the valuation is at the top not with the teams who'll disproportionately be on the regional networks.