Bubble/tournament Watch 3/12/23

[stever20]

updated with the new seed list.
1 Alabama vs Texas A&M-won 82-63
2 Houston vs Memphis-lost 65-75
3 Kansas
4 Purdue vs Penn St-won 67-65
5 Texas
6 Arizona
7 UCLA
8 Marquette
9 Baylor
10 Gonzaga
11 Kansas St
12 Tennessee
13 UConn
14 Indiana
15 Xavier
16 Duke
17 Virginia
18 Iowa St
19 TCU
20 Texas A&M vs Alabama-lost 63-82
21 Miami
22 San Diego St
23 Saint Mary's
24 Kentucky
25 Missouri
26 Creighton
27 Northwestern
28 Michigan St
29 Florida Atlantic
30 Memphis vs Houston-won 75-65
31 Iowa
32 Arkansas
33 Penn St vs Purdue-lost 65-67
34 Maryland
35 Illinois
36 West Virginia
37 Auburn
38 USC
39 Mississippi St
40 Utah St
41 Boise St
42 Rutgers
--------------first 4
43 Providence
44 Arizona St
45 Pittsburgh
46 North Carolina St
-------------cutline
69 Oklahoma St
70 Clemson
71 Nevada
72 Wisconsin
73 Vanderbilt
74 Oregon
75 North Carolina
76 Michigan

auto bids:
47 Charleston
48 Oral Roberts
49 Drake
50 VCU vs Dayton Sun-won 68-56
51 Kent St
52 Iona
53 Yale vs Princeton Sun lost 74-65
54 Louisiana
55 Furman
56 UC Santa Barbara
57 Grand Canyon
58 Kennesaw St
59 Vermont
60 Montana St
61 Colgate
62 UNC Asheville
63 Northern Kentucky
64 Texas A&M Corpus Christi
-----------------first 4
65 Howard
66 SE Missouri St
67 Fairleigh Dickinson
68 Texas Southern

[stever20]

Lunardi right now:
Marquette 2 E Columbus vs Colgate, Northwestern/Auburn
UConn 3 S Greensboro vs Vermont, Miami/Utah St
Xavier 4 MW Albany vs Iona, Indiana/Oral Roberts
Creighton 6 W Albany vs Miss St/Pitt, Kansas St
Providence 10 MW Sacramento vs Mich St, Arizona

If UConn gets 3 seed, they're likely going to not be in NYC.
Kansas gets 1 MW
Texas gets 2 South

if Big 12 gets 2 3 seeds(Baylor and Kansas St) they have to go West and East by bracketing rules.

[kayako]

The committee likes to get cute with matchups. Do they force a X vs. Dayton matchup if the Flyers win today?

[stever20]

The committee likes to get cute with matchups. Do they force a X vs. Dayton matchup if the Flyers win today?

it's possible for sure.

With the Yale win the 12/13 seed lines are gonna be as good as we ever see it I think. the 4/5's will be tested in rd 1 and 2 for sure.

[kayako]

Hypothetically...

12. Pitt/ASU, Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, VCU
13. Kent, Iona, Louisiana, Furman

We'd get 2 extra 12 seeds and 16 seeds... do I have this correct?

[stever20]

Hypothetically...

12. Pitt/ASU, Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, VCU
13. Kent, Iona, Louisiana, Furman

We'd get 2 extra 12 seeds and 16 seeds... do I have this correct?

Don't think so. Pitt/ASU would be on the 11 line as the 2nd FF game.

So if they expanded to 72 if I'm getting your idea would be 2 FF games with the next 4 at large teams, then Charleston and Oral Roberts as 12 seeds. 13 seeds would be Drake, VCU, Kent St, and Iona. 14 seeds would be Yale, Louisiana, Furman, and UCSB.

[stever20]

Lunardi final bracketology:
Providence 10 S Des Moines vs Missouri, Texas
Xavier 4 MW Albany vs Kent St, Texas A&M/VCU
Marquette 2 E Columbus vs Kennesaw St, Northwestern/USC
UConn 4 W Albany vs Iona, Iowa St/Oral Roberts
Creighton 6 W Greensboro vs Rutgers/Pitt, Kansas St

So looking at it, if Marquette is the #8 overall seed, they would be going to the East given the other 3 2's are UCLA, Arizona, and Texas. That makes it where UConn even if they are a 4 seed can not go to the East and MSG.

[XUFan09]

Lunardi final bracketology:
Providence 10 S Des Moines vs Missouri, Texas
Xavier 4 MW Albany vs Kent St, Texas A&M/VCU
Marquette 2 E Columbus vs Kennesaw St, Northwestern/USC
UConn 4 W Albany vs Iona, Iowa St/Oral Roberts
Creighton 6 W Greensboro vs Rutgers/Pitt, Kansas St

So looking at it, if Marquette is the #8 overall seed, they would be going to the East given the other 3 2's are UCLA, Arizona, and Texas. That makes it where UConn even if they are a 4 seed can not go to the East and MSG.

Relevant. It's like getting the right answer on a math problem after doing all the wrong work along the way.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketb ... o_miss_the

[stever20]

so some Bracketologist scores:
Bracketville 367 (T55th)
CBS(Jerry Palm) 361 (T106th)
ESPN(Lunardi) 359(T120th)
Fox(DeCourcey) 349 (T182nd)

[stever20]

so they posted the final scores on things:
avg bracketologist scores last 5 years:
2018 337.8
2019 341.9
2021 346.4
2022 347.0
2023 356.5

the overall bracket matrix last 5 years:
2018 347
2019 361
2021 366
2022 370
2023 379

amazing how much better they've gotten now than 5 years ago. Or maybe how the committee has gotten more predictable these last 5 years.