Bubble/Tournament Watch 3/9/23

[stever20]

1 Alabama vs Miss St Fri-QF
2 Kansas vs West Virginia Thu-QF-won 78-61 Fri vs Iowa St-SF
3 Houston vs East Carolina Fri-QF
4 Purdue vs Rutgers Fri-QF
5 UCLA vs Colorado Thu QF-won 80-69 vs Oregon Fri-SF
6 Texas vs Oklahoma St Thu QF-won 60-47 vs TCU Fri-SF
7 Baylor vs Iowa St Thu QF-lost 72-78 season over
8 Arizona vs Stanford Thu QF-won 95-84 vs Arizona St Fri SF
9 Kansas St vs TCU Thu QF-lost 67-80 season over
10 Marquette vs St John's Thu QF-won 72-70 vs UConn Fri SF
11 Tennessee vs Ole Miss Thu 2nd rd-won 70-55 Fri vs Missouri QF
12 Gonzaga Season over
13 UConn vs Providence Thu QF won 73-66 vs Marquette Fri SF
14 Indiana vs Maryland Fri QF
15 Xavier vs DePaul Thu QF-won 89-84 vs Creighton Fri-SF
16 Virginia vs North Carolina Thu QF-won 68-59 vs Clemson Fri-SF
17 TCU vs Kansas St Thu QF-won 80-67 Fri vs TCU SF
18 Iowa St vs Baylor Thu QF-won 78-72 Fri vs Kansas SF
19 Miami vs Wake Forest Thu QF-won 74-72 Fri vs Duke SF
20 Saint Mary's Season over
21 San Diego St vs Colorado St Thu QF-won 64-61 vs San Jose St Fri-SF
22 Creighton vs Villanova Thu QF won 87-74 vs Xavier Fri-SF
23 Duke vs Pittsburgh Thu QF won 96-69 Fri vs Miami SF
24 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Fri QF
25 Michigan St vs Ohio St Fri QF
26 Northwestern vs Penn St Fri QF
27 Texas A&M vs Arkansas Fri QF
28 Missouri vs Tennessee Fri QF
29 Iowa vs Ohio St Thu 2nd rd-lost 69-73 Season Over
30 Illinois vs Penn St Thu 2nd rd-lost 76-79 Season Over
31 Florida Atlantic vs Western Kentucky Thu QF-won 75-51 vs Middle Tennessee Fri-SF
32 Arkansas vs Auburn Thu 2nd rd-won 76-73 vs Texas A&M Fri-QF
33 Maryland vs Minnesota Thu 2nd rd-Won 70-54 Fri vs Indiana QF
34 Memphis vs UCF Fri QF
35 West Virginia vs Kansas Thu QF-lost 61-78 Season over
36 USC vs Arizona St Thu
37 Auburn vs Arkansas Thu 2nd rd-lost 73-76 Season Over
38 Providence vs UConn Thu QF-lost 66-73 Season Over
39 Mississippi St vs Florida Thu 2nd rd-won 69-68 Fri vs Alabama SF
40 Pittsburgh vs Duke Thu QF-lost 69-96 Season Over
41 North Carolina St vs Clemson Thu QF-lost 54-80 Season Over
42 Boise St vs vs UNLV Thu QF-won 87-76 vs Utah St Fri-SF
---------------------first 4
43 Penn St vs Illinois Thu 2nd rd-won 79-76 vs Northwestern Fri-QF
44 Rutgers vs Michigan Thu 2nd rd-won 62-50 vs Purdue Fri- QF
45 Nevada vs San Jose St Thu QF-lost 77-81 season over
46 Oklahoma St vs Texas Thu QF-lost 47-60 season over
--------------------- cutline
69 Arizona St vs USC Thu QF-won 77-72 vs Arizona Fri SF
70 Utah St vs New Mexico Thu QF won 91-76 vs Boise St Fri SF
71 North Carolina vs Virginia Thu QF-lost 59-68 Season Over
72 Wisconsin Season Over
73 Michigan vs Rutgers Thu 2nd rd-lost 50-62 Season Over
74 Clemson vs NC State Thu QF-won 80-54 vs Virginia Fri-SF
75 Oregon vs Washington St Thu QF-won 75-70 vs UCLA Fri-SF
76 Vanderbilt vs LSU Thu 2nd rd-won 77-68 vs Kentucky Fri-QF

Auto bids

47 Charleston Season over
48 Oral Roberts Season Over
49 Drake Season over
50 VCU vs Davidson Thu QF-won 71-53 vs Saint Louis Sat-SF
51 Sam Houston St vs Cal Baptist Thu QF-won 64-51 vs Grand Canyon Fri-SF
52 Toledo vs Miami Oh Thu QF-won 91-75 vs Ohio Fri-SF
53 Louisiana Season Over
54 Iona vs Niagara Fri-SF
55 Yale vs Cornell Sat-SF
56 Furman Season Over
57 UC Irvine vs CS Bakersfield Thu QF-won 75-51 vs CS Fullerton Fri SF
58 Kennesaw St Season Over
59 Colgate Season Over
60 Vermont vs Mass-Lowell Sat-F
61 Montana St Season Over
62 UNC Asheville Season Over
63 Northern Kentucky Season Over
64 Texas A&M Corpus Christi Season Over
--------------------------first 4
65 Grambling St Fri vs Jackson St SF
66 Howard Fri vs UMES SF
67 SE Missouri St Season Over
68 Farleigh Dickinson Season Over

[kayako]

We may not get a real bid thief this season without Florida Atlantic losing or some monumental upsets in the power conferences + AAC. It could still happen in the MWC, but most likely a potential thief from that conference will knock a fellow conference member off the bracket in the process.

[stever20]

From David Worlock:
Committee voted 20 teams into the field yesterday, while another 38 made it to the under consideration board. The 58 aligns w/ a normal total for a Wednesday, though 20 is on the low end for getting in as an AL. They also seeded 2 lines and started today w/ selecting more teams.

and from Bracketville guy:
Definitely on the low side for initial ballot. Suggests that once you get past the 5-seed line, a lot of teams look very similar with different strengths and weaknesses.

Guessing the top 4 BE teams are in(remember Gonzaga is automatic already as well).

Would suggest that conference tournaments this year would mean more than normally recently they have I'd guess...

[stever20]

Lunardi has Providence right now as the 7th team in.

[kayako]

Lunardi has Providence right now as the 7th team in.

At the rate teams near the cutline are losing, I don't really see a Providence to Dayton path. Not enough teams left to charge past them.

[stever20]

Lunardi has Providence right now as the 7th team in.

At the rate teams near the cutline are losing, I don't really see a Providence to Dayton path. Not enough teams left to charge past them.

He has Penn St, Miss St, and Rutgers just behind them. If they all win 1 more game, they pass Providence probably. Also Florida Atlantic is in, so if they lose, they take an at large spot and push Providence down.

[kayako]

Lunardi has Providence right now as the 7th team in.

At the rate teams near the cutline are losing, I don't really see a Providence to Dayton path. Not enough teams left to charge past them.

He has Penn St, Miss St, and Rutgers just behind them. If they all win 1 more game, they pass Providence probably. Also Florida Atlantic is in, so if they lose, they take an at large spot and push Providence down.

That'd require beating 2 top 5 teams and Northwestern in Chicago... so yeah I guess there is a chance.

[stever20]

That'd require beating 2 top 5 teams and Northwestern in Chicago... so yeah I guess there is a chance.

Alabama hasn't been playing well at all. Purdue has been gettable at times- to include Rutgers beating them earlier in the year. And Northwestern has lost 3 of their last 4 games.

And that's assuming that Providence is ahead of Pittsburgh as well- could see that either way really.

[kayako]

That'd require beating 2 top 5 teams and Northwestern in Chicago... so yeah I guess there is a chance.

Alabama hasn't been playing well at all. Purdue has been gettable at times- to include Rutgers beating them earlier in the year. And Northwestern has lost 3 of their last 4 games.

And that's assuming that Providence is ahead of Pittsburgh as well- could see that either way really.

You're describing a situation in which 3 underdogs, all playing 2nd night in a row against 3 rested teams, winning straight up, while assuming Lunardi's placement is more accurate. Sure, maybe Pitt was ahead, but maybe Auburn or WVU were behind. Providence wasn't likely to be Dayton bound before today, and they're even less likely despite losing to uconn. If they end up in Dayton, the committee probably had them lower than the bracketologists to begin with.

I wouldn't even mind getting sent to Dayton. It's a very winnable game.

[kayako]

Is it just me or is Iowa kind of unremarkable? Their resume and the metrics look like they should be a lot closer to the bubble than where they're at.....