OOC Performance. How will it effect Selection Sunday?

[kayako]

The issue is going into the conference season already have if everyone wins out Nova with 5 losses, and 5 other teams with 3 losses. Gonna be tough for any of those 6 teams to get in at 10-10 for instance in conference play already. Marquette and Providence could easily join the 3 loss group. At some point, raw record means something.

If we're strictly concerned with number of bids, ideally there's a gap between top 5 or 6 and the rest. A bunch of 10-10 teams below top 3 teams would not be ideal if our conference numbers don't improve dramatically. I'm just saying it's a little premature to say Villanova needs 14 BE wins at minimum with 3 of them being vs. UCONN and Creighton. I am going to wait until the challenge vs. B12 is complete to project what's needed for each team going forward.

[adoraz]

Well, the OOC thus far has been awful. Lots of close losses and underachievers. Further, expansion candidates have all taken a step back. Difficult given TV negotiation I'm sure are ongoing, and the conference is in a worse state now than over the past several years. Our flagship program has tanked worse than anyone could have expected in a matter of weeks (although UConn/Creighton have filled in for now).

That said, two big things to keep in mind:
1. Given NET factors how teams play (such as O/D efficiency... unlike RPI), I'm not expecting NET to be terrible for most teams. I think the top 3-5 teams in BE play should make it, as long as they aren't Georgetown. The biggest issue I don't think will be NET, but rather lack of OOC resume wins. Should have some opportunities in conference, though.
2. In terms of visibility, we have two teams in the Top 10. Realistically speaking the big majority of fans, especially those from opposing conferences, only pay attention to their own team as well as Title contenders. Should still make for some great TV with all other teams having 4 opportunities to knock off contenders. I'd argue that 2 teams in the top 10 is better visibility for the league than 3-4 teams outside of that range. Not as good for depth of course, but more interesting for the average viewer.

The doubters (such as ESPN) will double down and we may be #6 in power rankings (I don't think worse, right?) but Creighton and UConn (and hopefully the Johnnies...) have really helped the league maintain visibility. As long as two of those teams finish non-conference play top 15ish then we'll be in OK shape I'd think as far as TV ratings go. That's probably the most important thing long-term.

[Xuperman]

If we're strictly concerned with number of bids, ideally there's a gap between top 5 or 6 and the rest. A bunch of 10-10 teams below top 3 teams would not be ideal if our conference numbers don't improve dramatically. I'm just saying it's a little premature to say Villanova needs 14 BE wins at minimum with 3 of them being vs. UCONN and Creighton. I am going to wait until the challenge vs. B12 is complete to project what's needed for each team going forward.

I think you generally agree with the thinking that started this thread.

As far as Villanova goes, I kinda think we've already seen enough to ballpark the necessary numbers needed for an at large. Oklahoma is the best it's gonna get for an OOC resume enhancer and Portland is history. Realistically your Wildcats need to feather their cap with several wins at the very top of the conference AND get to at least 14-6 20-11. Perhaps you see a scenario where an at large is obtained otherwise.

Let's look at Xavier for comparison and give them the benefit of the doubt of winning out OOC. Best W, WVU + Florida and UC (probably on par w/ Temple). Worse L- none. Go 12-8 20-11. Unless there is multiple losses vs the lower BE, only a couple of wins at the top would be needed IMO.

Yes, loong waay to go......just noodling ways to get to 5 bids.

[Django]

The Big East is a solid #4 in Massey, ahead of the ACC and PAC, pretty much the same as always. Although we had some bad matchups and those putrid road games in Portlandia (that thing SUCKED! I hope CU never plays that lame ass tourney with more dead skin from Phil Knights face on his suit lapels than there were people in the stands). For comparison look at the AACK: they have soon to be gone Houston at #2 but they’re still at no 8 and slipping into oblivion once the split happens. Hell, Georgetown is at 162… I think that’s better than they were last year, which actually helps us overall. Yes this is the FIRST YEAR we’ve been behind in the F5 matchups but the sky hasn’t fallen yet!

Massey as of today:

5 Connecticut
16 Creighton
30 St John's
54 Marquette
57 Xavier
65 Seton Hall
77 Butler
82 Providence
84 Villanova
115 DePaul
162 Georgetown

[kayako]

If we're strictly concerned with number of bids, ideally there's a gap between top 5 or 6 and the rest. A bunch of 10-10 teams below top 3 teams would not be ideal if our conference numbers don't improve dramatically. I'm just saying it's a little premature to say Villanova needs 14 BE wins at minimum with 3 of them being vs. UCONN and Creighton. I am going to wait until the challenge vs. B12 is complete to project what's needed for each team going forward.

I think you generally agree with the thinking that started this thread.

As far as Villanova goes, I kinda think we've already seen enough to ballpark the necessary numbers needed for an at large. Oklahoma is the best it's gonna get for an OOC resume enhancer and Portland is history. Realistically your Wildcats need to feather their cap with several wins at the very top of the conference AND get to at least 14-6 20-11. Perhaps you see a scenario where an at large is obtained otherwise.

Let's look at Xavier for comparison and give them the benefit of the doubt of winning out OOC. Best W, WVU + Florida and UC (probably on par w/ Temple). Worse L- none. Go 12-8 20-11. Unless there is multiple losses vs the lower BE, only a couple of wins at the top would be needed IMO.

Yes, loong waay to go......just noodling ways to get to 5 bids.

We still don't know what a road win in Marquette, Butler, etc is going to look like down the road. It's very possible thar there will be more big win opportunities in the conference than you are projecting.

[stever20]

The Big East is a solid #4 in Massey, ahead of the ACC and PAC, pretty much the same as always. Although we had some bad matchups and those putrid road games in Portlandia (that thing SUCKED! I hope CU never plays that lame ass tourney with more dead skin from Phil Knights face on his suit lapels than there were people in the stands). For comparison look at the AACK: they have soon to be gone Houston at #2 but they’re still at no 8 and slipping into oblivion once the split happens. Hell, Georgetown is at 162… I think that’s better than they were last year, which actually helps us overall. Yes this is the FIRST YEAR we’ve been behind in the F5 matchups but the sky hasn’t fallen yet!

Massey as of today:

5 Connecticut
16 Creighton
30 St John's
54 Marquette
57 Xavier
65 Seton Hall
77 Butler
82 Providence
84 Villanova
115 DePaul
162 Georgetown

It's dangerous to look at the computer ratings right now as they still have last year baked into them. The NET won't. And like looking at RPI right now things aren't good at all-
obviously not the same as the NET- but still a decent indicator:
Creighton 7
UConn 18
Marquette 79
St John's 84
Butler 97
Seton Hall 100
Xavier 141
DePaul 189
Georgetown 207
Providence 263
Villanova 292

[Angry Dan]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e ... 0587775926

The CBS Eye on College Basketball guys, Gary Parrish and Kyle Boone, have re assessed the Big East, UCONN is now the favorite based on the impressive PK Invite wins over three Ken Pom top 50 teams, Oregon, Bama and the ISU Cyclones.

UCONN is the hunted and my Bluejays are back to hunter status

I have to admit winning all three games by double digits is impressive. Hats off to the Huskies.

[hoops22]

All the computer rankings are pretty worthless right now. RPI has Charleston, Sam Houston, and Hofstra all ranked in the top ten, while Virginia, Kansas, and North Carolina are all in the 30's and 40's. The NET seems to be more accurate to me right now in most cases, but not all. Below I'll list the top 10 NET rankings and see who can guess who mystery team number 6 is.

1 Gonzaga
2 Houston
3 Kansas
4 Arizona
5 Baylor
6 ????
7 Tennessee
8 Texas Tech
9 Kentucky
10 Duke

Mystery team number 6? Villanova

[stever20]

All the computer rankings are pretty worthless right now. RPI has Charleston, Sam Houston, and Hofstra all ranked in the top ten, while Virginia, Kansas, and North Carolina are all in the 30's and 40's. The NET seems to be more accurate to me right now in most cases, but not all. Below I'll list the top 10 NET rankings and see who can guess who mystery team number 6 is.

1 Gonzaga
2 Houston
3 Kansas
4 Arizona
5 Baylor
6 ????
7 Tennessee
8 Texas Tech
9 Kentucky
10 Duke

Mystery team number 6? Villanova

The NET is still last years end of regular season. Guessing the NET for this year should be coming out maybe next Monday or the following Monday for the first time?

[adoraz]

Our NET should be better than our RPI, but still will be pretty bad in comparison to previous years.