Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Angry Dan]

Go get the Zags.

No one is going to buy into a College Basketball Championship without Gonzaga. (I think the same goes for Nova). If we add Gonzaga it makes it tougher to keep the Big East out

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

With how aggressive everyone else is getting, we need to add Gonzaga and figure out logistics after. This day in age with enough $ and branding, you just figure it out. The days of conf names making sense geographically are long gone. This is about survival. If the big football conferences keep going in this direction, they're having their own NCAAT as well just without the NCAA, since they will leave. It won't make sense because many watch for Cinderella potential and intrigue, but they would still have enough viewers to make good $. It becomes much harder to push the Big East aside from a tournament like that if you add Gonzaga to Nova, UConn, etc.

Brilliant post, Mayhem!

Mark Few (630–124; .836 W-L%) will turn 59 in December. In six years, there’s a good chance that Mark Few will retire from coaching and pursue his life-long passion for fishing. He’s that kind of guy – sort of a ‘Martin Crane’ with a brilliant basketball mind, known for his great rapport with his players.

No amount of money will lure Mark Few away from Gonzaga before he retires, and it is likely that no amount of money will keep Mark Few from full-time fishing when he turns 65. In many respects, Mark Few is a very unique college basketball coach.


..... Mark Few - Wikipedia

Mark Few is an American college basketball coach who has been the head coach at Gonzaga University since 1999. He has served on Gonzaga's coaching staff since 1989, and has been a constant on the sidelines throughout a period that has seen the Bulldogs rise from mid-major obscurity to consistent NCAA Tournament contenders. During his tenure as head coach, Few has led the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament every season (except 2019–20, when the team had secured an automatic bid but the tournament was cancelled), a stretch that has garnered the Bulldogs recognition as a major basketball power despite playing in a mid-major conference.

For more than 20 years, Mark Few had been the best-known American college basketball coach in Australia. During that time, he has consistently recruited Australia’s best high school players, in addition to many West Coast 4-star and 5-star prospects.

Gonzaga’s President is already on record vetoing a move to the Big East Conference because of the great expense for all non-revenue sports. “It’s just not financially viable” he has been quoted as saying. In 2027, Gonzaga’s Athletic Director will likely have the unenviable task of replacing Mark Few. In order to continue Gonzaga’s present success in basketball, the Athletic Director will need to hire Jay Wright or an NBA head coach that Gonzaga cannot possibly afford. So Gonzaga will hire someone they CAN afford. The probability of hiring another 'Mark Few' they can afford is close to zero. So a relative decline in Gonzaga’s basketball program over a period of years is inevitable.

In 2027, the last thing the President of Gonzaga wants is the permanent financial commitment of sending non-revenue sports teams to the East Coast while Mark Few is enjoying his days fishing.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I hate to break it to the board, but there are considerable barriers for Gonzaga ever becoming a member in the Big East without a full western pod to compliment it. First and foremost, the Big East is an East coast, NYC-centered, basketball conference. If Gonzaga were located in Cleveland, they would have been added a decade ago easily. However, even with our $4-$5 million payouts annually, it makes zero financial sense to add Gonzaga as a full-member (which NCAA laws require, as your basketball home is your home for all sports). Gonzaga cannot be added as a men's basketball-only member. For Gonzaga, being in the WCC does not prevent them from competing for national championships. Their donations are at an all-time high. There is zero incentive for them to join an East Coast league, one that would require annual trips to Newark, New York City, Washington D.C., Storrs and Philadelphia (let alone the other Midwestern states).

Secondly, all of these moves being made (and soon to be made) are all for football, first and foremost. The cold harsh reality that Kansas, a blue blood basketball program, is not going to be picked up by the B1G, ACC or PAC, speaks volumes to where the pecking order of realignment falls. The C7 have very intimate knowledge of this. Every single move is because of football. Because of that, there is no move to make right now. The Big East doesn't need to because it does not affect its standing in the basketball hierarchy, and the Big East continues to be treated as a peer to the power conferences.

Thirdly, for all conferences, a school has to provide value to the league if their top sport suddenly crumbles and is no longer nationally relevant. What value would Gonzaga offer to the Big East if they lost Few and hired a coach that tanked the program? What would happen if they underwent a long rebuild? What value would our programs have traveling in all-sports to Spokane annually if it wasn't a strong matchup? Think like a University President, not a college basketball fan.

[sju88grad]

I hate to break it to the board, but there are considerable barriers for Gonzaga ever becoming a member in the Big East without a full western pod to compliment it. First and foremost, the Big East is an East coast, NYC-centered, basketball conference. If Gonzaga were located in Cleveland, they would have been added a decade ago easily. However, even with our $4-$5 million payouts annually, it makes zero financial sense to add Gonzaga as a full-member (which NCAA laws require, as your basketball home is your home for all sports). Gonzaga cannot be added as a men's basketball-only member. For Gonzaga, being in the WCC does not prevent them from competing for national championships. Their donations are at an all-time high. There is zero incentive for them to join an East Coast league, one that would require annual trips to Newark, New York City, Washington D.C., Storrs and Philadelphia (let alone the other Midwestern states).

Secondly, all of these moves being made (and soon to be made) are all for football, first and foremost. The cold harsh reality that Kansas, a blue blood basketball program, is not going to be picked up by the B1G, ACC or PAC, speaks volumes to where the pecking order of realignment falls. The C7 have very intimate knowledge of this. Every single move is because of football. Because of that, there is no move to make right now. The Big East doesn't need to because it does not affect its standing in the basketball hierarchy, and the Big East continues to be treated as a peer to the power conferences.

Thirdly, for all conferences, a school has to provide value to the league if their top sport suddenly crumbles and is no longer nationally relevant. What value would Gonzaga offer to the Big East if they lost Few and hired a coach that tanked the program? What would happen if they underwent a long rebuild? What value would our programs have traveling in all-sports to Spokane annually if it wasn't a strong matchup? Think like a University President, not a college basketball fan.

Could not agree more Golden. We are the #1 conference (by far) that does not play football. We don’t have to do anything right now because we have no idea where/when all this insanity ends. I’d rather wait to see what schools are available after realignment and go from there.

Schools like St. Louis, Dayton, VCU, etc don’t have a better option than the Big East so what’s the rush?

[Xudash]

I hate to break it to the board, but there are considerable barriers for Gonzaga ever becoming a member in the Big East without a full western pod to compliment it. First and foremost, the Big East is an East coast, NYC-centered, basketball conference. If Gonzaga were located in Cleveland, they would have been added a decade ago easily. However, even with our $4-$5 million payouts annually, it makes zero financial sense to add Gonzaga as a full-member (which NCAA laws require, as your basketball home is your home for all sports). Gonzaga cannot be added as a men's basketball-only member. For Gonzaga, being in the WCC does not prevent them from competing for national championships. Their donations are at an all-time high. There is zero incentive for them to join an East Coast league, one that would require annual trips to Newark, New York City, Washington D.C., Storrs and Philadelphia (let alone the other Midwestern states).

Secondly, all of these moves being made (and soon to be made) are all for football, first and foremost. The cold harsh reality that Kansas, a blue blood basketball program, is not going to be picked up by the B1G, ACC or PAC, speaks volumes to where the pecking order of realignment falls. The C7 have very intimate knowledge of this. Every single move is because of football. Because of that, there is no move to make right now. The Big East doesn't need to because it does not affect its standing in the basketball hierarchy, and the Big East continues to be treated as a peer to the power conferences.

Thirdly, for all conferences, a school has to provide value to the league if their top sport suddenly crumbles and is no longer nationally relevant. What value would Gonzaga offer to the Big East if they lost Few and hired a coach that tanked the program? What would happen if they underwent a long rebuild? What value would our programs have traveling in all-sports to Spokane annually if it wasn't a strong matchup? Think like a University President, not a college basketball fan.

Spot on.

What is taking place in college football with respect to conference realignment is taking place because of money that is being driven by media packages. It's taking place in the world of college football, not college basketball. A conference will add to its membership if at the end of the day it manages through its media partners to INCREASE THE PER SCHOOL PAYOUT for each of its members. Can the SEC make that happen by adding UT and OU? Yes, apparently. Could the Big12 make that happen the last time around when it attempted to expand beyond 10? No, much to the chagrin of schools like UCONN, UC, Houston, etc. They couldn't make the media payout numbers work where the corn grows tall, so they moved on, focusing on at least getting approval for a conference championship game for a 10-member conference.

Does this or will this conglomeration of football brands in any combination ultimately screw up college basketball? A student of history could argue that anything is possible, and that change is constant or assured, or whatever. The obvious example is having gone from no NCAA organization to having formed the NCAA, coupled with the reality that the NCAA overtook the NIT in stature at some point and never looked back. Could basketball get screwed up or screwed over? Well, sure, anything is possible.

However, here is the difference as I see it, and this is what I'm banking on. Yes, it is true that the NCAA overtook the NIT in relevance, and all that took place before CBS, in particular, came calling with a wagon load of cash. But THE business model has been cast and has been in place now for the NCAAT since the mid-80's. What did the powers that be learn? They learned that the formula for success was about expanding the tournament and making it into an inclusive event involving athletic conferences up and down the strada. Maybe a few athletic and media executives could fathom what the NCAAT would become back then, but I doubt many people understood what it would become.

It now is simply one of the premier sporting events on the calendar. If the power elites in college football, essentially, break it up, unwind it, reduce it, split out from it - whatever - they will not end up with as much unit income as they enjoy from it now (i.e. yes, their denominator would be smaller from having created a power college "U" group, but their numerator (revenue) would be reduced, and I believe fairly seriously. It certainly wouldn't be a compelling 64-team tournament, assuming they're about a 4x16 or 2x32 structure. Political backlash would be severe, IMO. Casual fans who had tuned in for the cinderella, inclusive aspect of it would be put off by such an elitist show, unless they're salivating over the likes of a Washington State v Vanderbilt first round match up.

We have no reason to panic. The power elite in college football are solving for football, not basketball. More importantly for the BE, the change that is coming for football may lead to new opportunities for the BE when it comes to our basketball membership. We should (will; we have bright people running the BE) only add to our membership where and when such additions bring value to our media agreement - we only add when we can INCREASE THE PER SCHOOL PAYOUT, just like the football schools are doing. Our media partner will mutually determine all that with us. Additions to the BE will be made on a proactive, value-added basis, not based on panic moves that may or may not have anything to do with their economic value to the conference.

Unless the world goes truly crazy, the BE will have a seat at THE table that is about the premier college basketball tournament in the United States, whether the organization that runs it is still the NCAA or something else. The NIL dynamic will have to be managed effectively by our members, but we should at least be positioned to deal with that effectively.

[DeltaV]

^ what X said. We should make no moves which would devalue the conference and brand. If there were any additions that would increase our value, we already would have taken them, or would have added them when we picked up UConn.

If realignment rattles a few things free, and they're willing to put football on the back burner, then sure. But until then, we sit and wait.

[Xudash]

^ what X said. We should make no moves which would devalue the conference and brand. If there were any additions that would increase our value, we already would have taken them, or would have added them when we picked up UConn.

If realignment rattles a few things free, and they're willing to put football on the back burner, then sure. But until then, we sit and wait.

Exactly.

News from the NCAA: https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/31922593/ncaa-sets-table-dramatic-overhaul-how-governs-college-athletics

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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This lengthy article by Yahoo's Pete Thamel is well worth a read:

Ohio State AD Gene Smith says 'pause button should be hit' on CFP expansion. Others fret over ESPN's grip on football - Pete Thamel - July 30, 2021

ESPN's broadcast dominance of college football

Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith is perhaps the most powerful athletic director in the country and a former member of the CFP committee. Smith’s point is tied, in part, to potential changes in the fundamental structure of conferences and overall college athletics. Essentially, it's difficult to determine access when there’s little certainty as to what leagues will look like. There’s also NCAA governance issues, as it’s uncertain what the collegiate leadership model will look like in two years.

Other leaders around the country have expressed a skepticism toward the financial value of allowing ESPN to continue to be the sole owner of the most powerful rights in college football. The College Football Playoff is, essentially, a television contract with ESPN that runs through the 2025 season. ESPN owns all of it now, which includes three playoff games and other New Year’s six bowls.

Right now, ESPN has exclusive negotiating rights because it owns the contract. The idea of bringing those rights to open market has only increased around the sport now that ESPN rode shotgun on the bold and expensive move of Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 for the SEC. (The Big 12 was mad enough in the wake of losing its two alpha members that it sent ESPN a “cease and desist” letter and alleging in an interview that ESPN “provided incentives” for another league to “destabilize” the Big 12. ESPN denied this.)

The acquisitions of OU and Texas fortifies SEC as the dominant brand in the sport, as it owns the SEC Network and all of the SEC’s relevant television rights starting in the summer of 2024. (ESPN also runs the ACC Network and owns the conference's rights through 2036, but that deal is widely viewed as so lopsided toward ESPN that it’s an impediment for the league’s future.)

The notion among many leaders around the sport: Why allow ESPN access to the most valuable set of rights around the sport without other bidders to drive up the price?

How ESPN's domination of CFP could cost conferences in long run

It’s not uncommon among major professional sports, like the NFL and NBA, to have multiple networks broadcast their postseason. Also, that would take perhaps an additional half billion of ESPN’s dollars a year off the table that could theoretically be directed toward upcoming rights to leagues like the upcoming deals of the Big Ten (2023) and Pac-12 (2024).

“It’s behooves everyone not named the SEC and ACC [for the CFP rights to go to market],” said a Power 5 athletic director outside the Big Ten. “It’s in all of our best interest [of other leagues] to let the contract through and go to open market. Why would a streaming service want to bid on a league like the Big Ten or Pac-12 to carry the regular season if they are going to just hand it over to ESPN for the playoffs?”

The discomfort around the country with ESPN owning the entire playoff sets up the stakes for an undercurrent that will define the next iteration of conference realignment and the next generation of college sports — the ESPN and the SEC vs. Fox and everyone else. The biggest unknown in the TV market is if another traditional suitor (CBS, NBC) or streaming service will join Fox Sports in the fray.

Link:

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS IN NCAA DIVISION I FBS – Wikipedia


TABLE 4: Niche's 2021 Best Colleges in America - SCHOOL RANKINGS

Niche Rank • Niche Grade • School • Conference • Niche Net Price

11 • A+ • Vanderbilt Commodores • Southeastern • $25,855
23 • A+ • MICHIGAN WOLVERINES • BIG TEN • $17,357
56 • A+ • Florida Gators • Southeastern • $10,457
57 • A+ • TEXAS LONGHORNS • BIG 12 • $15,502
59 • A+ • Georgia Bulldogs • Southeastern • $15,961
80 • A+ • Texas A&M Aggies • Southeastern • $19,237
92 • A+ • OHIO STATE BUCKEYES • BIG TEN • $18,706
94 • A • FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES • ACC • $12,568
99 • A • CLEMSON TIGERS • ACC • $21,482
134 • A • Auburn Tigers • Southeastern • $23,562

153 • Southeastern Conference - Average Niche Ranking for Present 14 Schools

156 • A • OKLAHOMA SOONERS • BIG 12 • $21,804
161 • A • South Carolina Gamecocks • Southeastern • $21,787
164 • A • Alabama Crimson Tide • Southeastern • $20,623
167 • A- • Mississippi State Bulldogs • Southeastern • $16,471
175 • A- • Missouri Tigers • Southeastern • $15,850
182 • A- • Arkansas Razorbacks • Southeastern • $16,263
201 • A- • Ole Miss Rebels • Southeastern • $14,672
223 • A- • Tennessee Volunteers • Southeastern • $21,024
241 • A- • LSU Tigers • Southeastern • $18,143
283 • B+ • Kentucky Wildcats • Southeastern • $18,958

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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Bold Predictions: Ohio State will move to the SEC - Meredith Hein, SB Nation/LandGrantHolyLand - July 28, 2021

Texas, Oklahoma join SEC: Longhorns, Sooners accept invitations as Big 12 powers begin new wave of realignment – CBS Sports – July 30, 2021

The boards at Texas and Oklahoma voted Friday to officially accept membership in the SEC

Niche Rank • Niche Grade • School • Conference • Niche Net Price

110 • A • TCU Horned Frogs • Big 12 • $37,509
137 • A • Baylor Bears • Big 12 • $28,372
148 • A • Iowa State Cyclones • Big 12 • $15,195
160 • A • Oklahoma State Cowboys • Big 12 • $15,325
165 • A • Kansas State Wildcats • Big 12 • $18,103
179 • A- • Texas Tech Red Raiders • Big 12 • $16,463
193 • A- • Kansas Jayhawks • Big 12 • $19,195
276 • A- • West Virginia Mountaineers • Big 12 • $12,743

66 • A+ • Tulane Green Wave • American Athletic • $40,783
86 • A+ • SMU Mustangs • American Athletic • $40,404
118 • A • South Florida Bulls • American Athletic • $9,787
124 • A • Tulsa Golden Hurricane • American Athletic • $23,940
149 • A • UCF Knights • American Athletic • $11,617
171 • A- • Cincinnati Bearcats • American Athletic • $19,219
200 • A- • Temple Owls • American Athletic • $23,032
212 • A- • Houston Cougars • American Athletic • $13,212

523 • B • Memphis Tigers • American Athletic • $13,481
529 • B • East Carolina Pirates • American Athletic • $13,635
835 • B- • Wichita State Shockers • American Athletic • $13,849

[DeltaV]

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Bold Predictions: Ohio State will move to the SEC - Meredith Hein, SB Nation/LandGrantHolyLand - July 28, 2021

Texas, Oklahoma join SEC: Longhorns, Sooners accept invitations as Big 12 powers begin new wave of realignment – CBS Sports – July 30, 2021

The boards at Texas and Oklahoma voted Friday to officially accept membership in the SEC

Niche Rank • Niche Grade • School • Conference • Niche Net Price

110 • A • TCU Horned Frogs • Big 12 • $37,509
137 • A • Baylor Bears • Big 12 • $28,372
148 • A • Iowa State Cyclones • Big 12 • $15,195
160 • A • Oklahoma State Cowboys • Big 12 • $15,325
165 • A • Kansas State Wildcats • Big 12 • $18,103
179 • A- • Texas Tech Red Raiders • Big 12 • $16,463
193 • A- • Kansas Jayhawks • Big 12 • $19,195
276 • A- • West Virginia Mountaineers • Big 12 • $12,743

66 • A+ • Tulane Green Wave • American Athletic • $40,783
86 • A+ • SMU Mustangs • American Athletic • $40,404
118 • A • South Florida Bulls • American Athletic • $9,787
124 • A • Tulsa Golden Hurricane • American Athletic • $23,940
149 • A • UCF Knights • American Athletic • $11,617
171 • A- • Cincinnati Bearcats • American Athletic • $19,219
200 • A- • Temple Owls • American Athletic • $23,032
212 • A- • Houston Cougars • American Athletic • $13,212

523 • B • Memphis Tigers • American Athletic • $13,481
529 • B • East Carolina Pirates • American Athletic • $13,635
835 • B- • Wichita State Shockers • American Athletic • $13,849

Why do these 'prices' and ranks keep getting posted? What's the point?