Conference Realignment: What Next?

[DeltaV]

I think you'd be more likely to see some sort of partial merger, where the remaining Big 12 schools pick up enough of the AAC to dissolve it (so no exit fees, penalties, etc) while getting rid of poor performers and long travel partners (basically abandoning Tulane, Temple, and East Carolina).

[GoldenWarrior11]

Rule #1 of realignment - moves always run downhill.

The AAC will not be able to poach from the Big 12. Even if the Big 12 gets down to three members, their brand and exit fees will be relevant enough that it will still be superior to that of the AAC. In addition, there would be members within the AAC looking to shed the bottom weight in the form of ECU, Tulsa and Tulane. It can get very messy and political kicking a school out of a conference (see Temple, Big East). Thus, it would be easier for the Big 12 to take from the AAC.

If Cincinnati, UConn and USF were able to pull from C-USA, without a TV deal in place, then the Big 8 will have zero problems taking the 2-6 top programs from the AAC.

Whether it is Mike Aresco or a hardcore AAC fan, anyone believing otherwise is setting themselves up for a colossal disappointment.

[Omaha1]

It all about the money.

From CBS:
Big 12 officials have discussed a structure in which Texas and Oklahoma would receive additional revenue shares as a way of enticing the two schools to remain in the conference rather than pursue a future in the SEC, conference sources have told CBS Sports.

Such a structure would grant the Longhorns and Sooners an additional half-share annually (1.5 shares each), bumping their payouts to approximately $56 million per year. The other eight schools would decrease their payouts accordingly. Big 12 schools currently average $37 million in annual TV rights earnings, including revenue from bowl games and the NCAA Tournament.

[Xudash]

It all about the money.

From CBS:
Big 12 officials have discussed a structure in which Texas and Oklahoma would receive additional revenue shares as a way of enticing the two schools to remain in the conference rather than pursue a future in the SEC, conference sources have told CBS Sports.

Such a structure would grant the Longhorns and Sooners an additional half-share annually (1.5 shares each), bumping their payouts to approximately $56 million per year. The other eight schools would decrease their payouts accordingly. Big 12 schools currently average $37 million in annual TV rights earnings, including revenue from bowl games and the NCAA Tournament.

Imagine being in that position with that structure as your best option if you are one of the other Big 12 schools.

And it is their best option (outcome). Structured subordination is their best outcome. Yikes.

[kayako]

Hell know I don’t believe it, but it makes for entertaining reading.

As has been stated, the B1G, as an organization, is more than just about football.

I am singularly focused on the NCAAT surviving all this “as-is”, or mostly as it is, such that the BE moves forward successfully.

Good, I was getting a little worried about this

I don't think this really affects the BE. But if they lose a couple more schools, I would think WVU tries to get the ACC to accept them again, and they will again get rejected. Would they be able to stay in the "B12" as football only member while having rest of their athletics return to the BE? It's far fetched but you never know, especially if they poach from the west with BYU and Houston.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Hell know I don’t believe it, but it makes for entertaining reading.

As has been stated, the B1G, as an organization, is more than just about football.

I am singularly focused on the NCAAT surviving all this “as-is”, or mostly as it is, such that the BE moves forward successfully.

Good, I was getting a little worried about this

I don't think this really affects the BE. But if they lose a couple more schools, I would think WVU tries to get the ACC to accept them again, and they will again get rejected. Would they be able to stay in the "B12" as football only member while having rest of their athletics return to the BE? It's far fetched but you never know, especially if they poach from the west with BYU and Houston.

The Big 12, with Kansas, will remain a power basketball conference. Unlike UConn, WVU does not have that same sentimental attachment to the Big East. I doubt there is a fit there.

Down the road, if/when the ACC gets raided for the larger state schools, it might be possible to see BC/Syracuse/Pitt return in a non-football fashion. But that is likely a decade away, at least.

[kayako]

The Big 12, with Kansas, will remain a power basketball conference. Unlike UConn, WVU does not have that same sentimental attachment to the Big East. I doubt there is a fit there.

Correct. But I think Uconn actually tried to stay football only at AAC but was rejected. At what point does WVU think being the geographic outlier isn't worth it for olympic sports? TV contract at under $15M? I mean this is just assuming that B12 lets them stay football only, which is probably the far fetched part of my speculation.

BC can join the Patriots league.

[Xudash]

Hell know I don’t believe it, but it makes for entertaining reading.

As has been stated, the B1G, as an organization, is more than just about football.

I am singularly focused on the NCAAT surviving all this “as-is”, or mostly as it is, such that the BE moves forward successfully.

Good, I was getting a little worried about this

I don't think this really affects the BE. But if they lose a couple more schools, I would think WVU tries to get the ACC to accept them again, and they will again get rejected. Would they be able to stay in the "B12" as football only member while having rest of their athletics return to the BE? It's far fetched but you never know, especially if they poach from the west with BYU and Houston.

Kayako — I still don’t believe Ohio State will/would leave the B1G. However, there are grumblings in Columbus about the poor leadership that exists in the B1G’s front office, and that includes the Buckeyes still being upset about how the Covid issue was handled by the conference.

We may be in for some massive shifts and changes in the college football landscape. I guess we can all pop some popcorn, sit back and watch it all unfold from here.

[Cheech]

Contracts mean nothing. As you are seeing realignment will happen and every School President and AD needs to be locked in. Most schools took a blood bath financially last year and if you don’t make money on football it gets even tougher. Xavier was already in trouble financially and Seton Hall and Providence not far behind. The Big East need to be aggressive, be out of the box and not get lost in the realignment.. If you think they can stay put and it will be ok your naive. I would find a way to get Gonzaga involved, and Add VCU, Wichita State or Dayton. We need a new contract and offer more games and inventory to Fox and or ESPN. This is a freight train and we don’t want to get rolled over. The Big schools would love to see that happen…stay tuned.

[Jet915]

If we start seeing super conferences of 16 teams we definitely need to be proactive. Gonzaga, BYU, SLU, Dayton and VCU would get us to 16. Kansas would be great if the B1G rejects them.