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Being a VCU fan, it is obvious what outcome I would like for the Rams but in all honesty I wanted to show everyone some statistics that I put together. If the conference is about making the best basketball conference, VCU and Wichita State shouldn't be ignored.
Here are some statistics that I put together. http://www.vcuramfootball.com/NewBigEast.htm Oh by the way; I had to store it on a domain I own, which coincidentally deals with starting football at VCU. To alleviate any stress that VCU may add football, I can tell you for sure that it probably will never happen. If VCU gets into the New Big East it will definitely never happen. My study concluded it probably would cost around 150 million to start up but that is another story.

I believe a 14 team conference adding Dayton, St. Louis, VCU and Wichita State would be one of the top conferences in the country. It would be split into 2 divisions of 7 where each school would play their division twice (home & away) and the other division once equaling 19 conference games. In my statistics, you can clearly see that VCU and Wichita State's average RPI for the last 5 years would have been one of the highest in the New Big East. You also look for team stability and willingness to invest in the basketball program as both VCU and Wichita State have kept their coach from taking higher profile jobs. Both schools also pay their coach around 1.5 million and play in front of sellout crowds. And now that Wichita State is in the Final Four; it just puts the icing on the cake. These two programs have shown that their success is sustainable and it would be a shame for the New Big East league to ignore it.

Here is a conference map. It gives Creighton a natural rival and it would allow for a public school rivalry between VCU and Wichita State.

I like that 14 team league. It could get 6-7 teams into the NCAA Tournament every year and I could see it earning $15-$20 Million in tournament money each year. On top of the TV money from Fox, that is not bad at all.
Obviously VCU and Wichita State are not good institutional fits for the new league. But they would make it more competitive basketball wise.

I think the Fox contract tops out at 12 teams, and since the schools wanted 10 to begin with I doubt they would take more than 12 if there was not substantial extra money.

I don't see 14 happening unless there was some huge advantages financially.

Burrito wrote:I like that 14 team league. It could get 5-7 teams into the NCAA Tournament every year and I could see it earning $13-$17 Million in tournament money each year. On top of the TV money from Fox, that is not bad at all.
Obviously VCU and Wichita State are not good institutional fits for the new league. But they would make it more competitive basketball wise.

With 12 teams you will likely get 5-7 NCAA teams a year. so 14 gives them nothing. Seriously i don't want to diss Wichita State or anything but they are not in the picture. I know their final four run is impressive and they have had some good seasons in the valley, but the BE can't just pick up every team that goes wild for two weeks in March. I mean seriously is Mason still in play? Wichita State does not fit the league profile, is a further location outlier than Creighton, doesn't have the school president sitting on Marquettes Board of Trustees, and doesn't have a chance of getting in the league. 14 is impossible unless fox pony's up more money. the 14 team schedule logistically costs more in transportation especially in non-revs, and dilutes the media and tournament revenues. I can't see Fox doing this for a 2nd team in Richmond and the media market of Wichita.
Then again i didn't see WKY going CUSA either so what do i know.

RPI is nothing short of an atrocious statistic for comparing quality of teams, especially if you're taking average position instead of average score. The problem with RPI is that it is trying to rank a success of a season,not how good a team is. You need to use a predictor like KenPom, Sagarin, or LRMC, which are trying to judge quality of teams. It's a subtle difference, but a quality predictor should be able to recognize if a 12 team conference had the 12 best teams in the nation, whereas RPI would probably have the unluckiest of the bunch in the 100's (someone has to lose in conference play).

I have a spread of Sagarin data, and stopping at 10 gave the strongest conference running over the last 15 or so years, which was with the teams currently involved. Going to 14 was not good for the conference except in the last two seasons. Here's a chart, BE7 is the original 7's conference rating, while BE10 is the 10 teams for next season and BE14 is your proposed arrangement.



Going from BE7 to BE10 was a boon for the conference, it only had a small decrease in quality for the conference in 3 seasons while often giving it nice gains. Going from BE10 to BE14, eliminates those gains and leaves the conference in worse shape than the original BE7. EXCEPT, in the last 2 seasons. The last two seasons your arrangement absolutely is a boon, but it doesn't dramatically change the position of the conference.

This year Sagarin:
1 BIG TEN = 85.54
2 BIG EAST = 83.26
--BE14-- = 82.94
3 BIG 12 = 82.12
--BE10-- = 81.78
4 ATLANTIC COAST = 81.17
--BE7-- = 81.03
5 PAC-12 = 80.79
6 SOUTHEASTERN = 80.17
7 MOUNTAIN WEST = 79.72
8 ATLANTIC 10 = 78.76
9 MISSOURI VALLEY = 77.31

It's similar with last year, a one spot boost, so in the best two seasons this 14 would have had in comparing to the current 10, it boosts the conference one position. Yeah, that's good, but why should we assume this is going to be the norm and not a fluke where all four teams hit quality years? It's a danger in looking at teams having success right now.

I'm not against any of these teams, but this 14 shows historically that it undoes our gains to 10. Biting on the now is not a gamble, it's reading too much into a contrived scenario. It will not be the top conference in basketball, nor is there a trend suggesting that any proposed arrangement will be. Our conference already dominates all other non-FBS conferences in basketball, according to computer numbers, so there's no change in going to 12 or 14 there. We're pretty much where we're going to be, unless we land some complete surprise unknown. To get to the top, this conference has to grown from within.

Also, I hate divisions. There's no need for divisions with 14 teams.

IbleedVCU wrote:Being a VCU fan, it is obvious what outcome I would like for the Rams but in all honesty I wanted to show everyone some statistics that I put together. If the conference is about making the best basketball conference, VCU and Wichita State shouldn't be ignored.
Here are some statistics that I put together. http://www.vcuramfootball.com/NewBigEast.htm Oh by the way; I had to store it on a domain I own, which coincidentally deals with starting football at VCU. To alleviate any stress that VCU may add football, I can tell you for sure that it probably will never happen. If VCU gets into the New Big East it will definitely never happen. My study concluded it probably would cost around 150 million to start up but that is another story.

I believe a 14 team conference adding Dayton, St. Louis, VCU and Wichita State would be one of the top conferences in the country. It would be split into 2 divisions of 7 where each school would play their division twice (home & away) and the other division once equaling 19 conference games. In my statistics, you can clearly see that VCU and Wichita State's average RPI for the last 5 years would have been one of the highest in the New Big East. You also look for team stability and willingness to invest in the basketball program as both VCU and Wichita State have kept their coach from taking higher profile jobs. Both schools also pay their coach around 1.5 million and play in front of sellout crowds. And now that Wichita State is in the Final Four; it just puts the icing on the cake. These two programs have shown that their success is sustainable and it would be a shame for the New Big East league to ignore it.

VCU President or AD said that the matter of football was a WHEN NOT AN IF. As much as it would help in this situation to not have football, VCU will have football before too long. Also, VCU would use a renovated City Stadium for their football stadium (renovations allegedly supported by the Redskins to be used as an offseason practice facility - though that is a rumor). Even if they had to renovate City Stadium by themselves, they aren't looking anywhere near $150M.

All things can change. If the point of using football was to move up in conferences and gain revenue for sports, joining our conference could mitigate the need. I'm sure the more basketball success they have the less imperative it is for them to have football. It's not like they can just add football and join a power conference, or even make money. Don't read to far into past statements, if football coming blocks them from money they probably aren't going spend money to do it without someone giving them assurances for their future in football, i.e. Metro ensuring them a football spot or something.

It's also worth pointing out that if they joined our conference football might become near impossible to add. If we really have a grant of rights they'll be in a jam to try and move somewhere with football. Maybe they leave down the road, but that's ok, a school adding football isn't going to give a terribly poor perception on them leaving.

NCAA Tournament credits are going to bring a greater source of revenue to this league versus the major football leagues and their huge TV contracts. I believe the New Big East earned 10 credits this year. At approximately $1.9 Million a credit, that would be $19 million in earnings spread over 6 years. If we were to add Richmond and Dayton to get to 12, we would just be dividing that $19 Million by 12 instead of 10.

yorost wrote:All things can change. If the point of using football was to move up in conferences and gain revenue for sports, joining our conference could mitigate the need. I'm sure the more basketball success they have the less imperative it is for them to have football. It's not like they can just add football and join a power conference, or even make money. Don't read to far into past statements, if football coming blocks them from money they probably aren't going spend money to do it without someone giving them assurances for their future in football, i.e. Metro ensuring them a football spot or something.

It's also worth pointing out that if they joined our conference football might become near impossible to add. If we really have a grant of rights they'll be in a jam to try and move somewhere with football. Maybe they leave down the road, but that's ok, a school adding football isn't going to give a terribly poor perception on them leaving.

I am a basketball guy, but I think vcu could make more money in football (with obviously their bball team still bringing in revenue) then they could make in basketball in the big east. Its a higher revenue sport. Also, Charlotte and Old Dominion are in Conf USA after about 2 or 3 years and with vcu's characteristics, I imagine they would have a easier time getting invited to a better conference than that with more $.