Bubble Watch 3/7/24

[stever20]

33 Texas Sat vs 41 Oklahoma Q2
34 Nebraska Sun @ 129 Michigan Q2
35 Michigan St Sun @ 95 Indiana Q2
36 Colorado St Sat @ 271 Air Force Q4
37 Oklahoma Sat @ 28 Texas Q1
38 TCU Sat vs 67 UCF Q2
39 Florida Atlantic Sat @ 70 Memphis Q1
40 Seton Hall Sat vs 321 DePaul Q4
--------first four------
41 Virginia Sat vs 125 Ga Tech Q3
42 New Mexico Sat @ 32 Utah St Q1
43 St John's Sat vs 204 Georgetown Q4
44 Villanova Sat vs 11 Creighton Q1
--------cutline---------
69 Utah Thu @ 160 Oregon St-lost 85-92 Q3 Sat @ 66 Oregon Q1
70 Iowa Sun vs 16 Illinois Q1
71 Providence Sat vs 3 UConn Q1
72 Colorado Thu @ 66 Oregon Q1-won 79-75 Sat@ 160 Oregon St Q3
73 Memphis Sat vs 34 Florida Atlantic Q2
74 Drake Fri vs 198 Evansville Q3-won 79-58
75 James Madison Sat in Sun Belt Tolurney
76 Texas A&M Sat @ 78 Ole Miss Q2
77 Pittsburgh Sat vs 83 NC State Q3
78 Wake Forest Sat vs 24 Clemson Q1
79 UNLV Sat @ 33 Nevada Q1
80 Ohio St Sun @ 90 Rutgers Q2
81 Kansas St Sat vs 8 Iowa St Q1
82 Syracuse reg season over
83 Ole Miss Sat vs 49 Texas A&M Q2
84 Oregon Thu vs 31 Colorado-lost 75-79 Q2 Sat vs 46 Utah Q2

[ecasadoSBU]

So the Big East is closer to 7 bids than to 5?

Tomorrow is hugeee. PC is gonna need a miracle if it wants to beat UConn. They beat UConn and they are in.

Villanova looking for the sweep against Creighton at the Wells Fargo. That's going to be one heck of a game.

I may go to the garden tomorrow and check out the SJU-GT finale

[stever20]

So the Big East is closer to 7 bids than to 5?

Tomorrow is hugeee. PC is gonna need a miracle if it wants to beat UConn. They beat UConn and they are in.

I dunno that I'd agree with your first statement. Quite possible that to make the tourney Nova has to beat Creighton. And right or wrong, PC needs to beat UConn to feel safe. Those would be upsets. And also, St John's would probably have to beat Seton Hall or Marquette in the QF of the BET to clinch a spot.

[SJUBBALL]

So the Big East is closer to 7 bids than to 5?

Tomorrow is hugeee. PC is gonna need a miracle if it wants to beat UConn. They beat UConn and they are in.

I dunno that I'd agree with your first statement. Quite possible that to make the tourney Nova has to beat Creighton. And right or wrong, PC needs to beat UConn to feel safe. Those would be upsets. And also, St John's would probably have to beat Seton Hall or Marquette in the QF of the BET to clinch a spot.

Yea, even if there aren't any bid stealers (there always are at least a few) SJU is left extremely vulnerable if they do not win in the QF of the BET.

Lotta Johnnies fans feel good because they think the committee will want Pitino and an NYC team in the dance, but to me that is just wishful thinking and nothing more. They are going to (likely) play Seton Hall and they are going to need to win that game. No disrespect to Seton Hall, they are a tough team, but if you can't beat them once in three tries... you don't deserve to go to the dance

[kayako]

So the Big East is closer to 7 bids than to 5?

I think 4 is more likely than 7, or even 6. Loser of 4/5 game in the BET is going to be sweating bullets, and 6th and 7th teams may be facing season deciding games against Creighton and Marquette. Villanova and Providence needs to win tomorrow to not feel nervous.

[stever20]

So the Big East is closer to 7 bids than to 5?

I think 4 is more likely than 7, or even 6. Loser of 4/5 game in the BET is going to be sweating bullets, and 6th and 7th teams may be facing season deciding games against Creighton and Marquette. Villanova and Providence needs to win tomorrow to not feel nervous.

I think especially Nova. If they lose tomorrow, they are 17-14. That might take 2 BET wins to get in the dance at 19-15. One would be vs DePaul likely. but would then need to beat Marquette likely in the QF of the BET to feel comfortable at all.

[kayako]

I think especially Nova. If they lose tomorrow, they are 17-14. That might take 2 BET wins to get in the dance at 19-15. One would be vs DePaul likely. but would then need to beat Marquette likely in the QF of the BET to feel comfortable at all.

Quota for # of wins likely never existed, and if there's human element favoring 19-20 wins over 18, it probably means a lot less now, especially if Nova can keep their metrics in the 20s. At least that's what I want to believe, otherwise it only encourages soft home-heavy NC scheduling. Honestly, I might even admit that getting Kyle Neptune fired could be worth not making the tournament. If we don't make it, I hope it's because St. john's took our place.

[kayako]

Btw the situation in American gets pretty wild if Memphis wins @FAU tomorrow. They're occupying 2 spots ATM, but it could end up with just 1 or even 3.

You don't want Indiana State vs. Drake MVC final. Ideally you want one of then to lose early and the other to win the tournament. Something to keep an eye on today.

[stever20]

I think especially Nova. If they lose tomorrow, they are 17-14. That might take 2 BET wins to get in the dance at 19-15. One would be vs DePaul likely. but would then need to beat Marquette likely in the QF of the BET to feel comfortable at all.

Quota for # of wins likely never existed, and if there's human element favoring 19-20 wins over 18, it probably means a lot less now, especially if Nova can keep their metrics in the 20s. At least that's what I want to believe, otherwise it only encourages soft home-heavy NC scheduling. Honestly, I might even admit that getting Kyle Neptune fired could be worth not making the tournament. If we don't make it, I hope it's because St. john's took our place.

The bad thing for nova is their Results based Metrics. They are 62 in KPI and 56 in SOR. That's not good. I wouldn't say their metrics are great. Even the NET now they are 31st- and if they went 1-2 rest of the way with win over DePaul but losses to Creighton and then Marqette or Seton Hall in the BET- I don't know if that's gonna be enough.