Conference Realignment: What Next?

[GreatDaneAttorney]

And I still think it's easier for everyone to realize that GoRs are good for everyone overall and for the ACC to simply press ESPN for more money to avoid the collapse of the ACC Network and potentially paying even more if schools join the SEC.

Seems the least risky thing to simply work something out within the existing system. And really, FSU and Clemson's number to stay in the ACC is probably lower than we're all thinking. I don't think it's 100% clear cut better for FSU and Clemson to leave the ACC. If they got an additional $10-15m / yr they'd certainly be content with their position, no? So I'd just figure out what amount extra from ESPN is needed to reach that number (when combined with unequal revenue sharing, of course) so that the top ACC brands get approximately P2-level distributions.

[GoldenWarrior11]

And I still think it's easier for everyone to realize that GoRs are good for everyone overall and for the ACC to simply press ESPN for more money to avoid the collapse of the ACC Network and potentially paying even more if schools join the SEC.

Seems the least risky thing to simply work something out within the existing system. And really, FSU and Clemson's number to stay in the ACC is probably lower than we're all thinking. I don't think it's 100% clear cut better for FSU and Clemson to leave the ACC. If they got an additional $10-15m / yr they'd certainly be content with their position, no? So I'd just figure out what amount extra from ESPN is needed to reach that number (when combined with unequal revenue sharing, of course) so that the top ACC brands get approximately P2-level distributions.

If GORs are good for everyone, why doesn't the SEC have one?

GORs protect a conference and restrict a school, or schools, from having an easy pathway to leave for a better opportunity (for example, greater financial earnings). For non-power (and in this usage, I refer to any conference not named the Big Ten or SEC) conferences, they mainly benefit 1) a network from requiring to renegotiate a deal if the market changes and/or 2) the mid-to-low tier teams within a conference, as they have little value to bring to other leagues. A school like Wake Forest loves its GOR, as it ties them to an FSU or a Clemson, despite not possessing nearly the same amount of brand value, market, revenues or on-field success. For an FSU, who is not only not getting paid like an SEC or Big Ten school, but should be, and has to share more of its conference revenues with a Wake, is certainly harmed by it.

Now, make no mistake, the ACC is in its current state because it signed an incredibly long-term television deal with ESPN for below market value. Frankly, if there was ever a negative mark that Val and the Big East leadership ever received, it would have been agreeing to a 12-year (long-term) deal with Fox; the league has been paid below-market value now for several years (the next deal is hopefully much shorter than that). If a program performs, or is valued greater, than its current market value, why shouldn't it have the opportunity to earn more (either from its current network or from a competitor)? If the ACC was valued on-par with the SEC and B1G, which it very much is not, then this is not even a topic (as FSU, Clemson and others aren't looking elsewhere).

Personally, I think ESPN/ACC need to settle with FSU and Clemson relatively soon, as if these court cases either 1) open up discovery to what these legal documents stipulate (ESPN/ACC are fighting hard to keep them confidential and under lock-and-key in North Carolina) or 2) that a GOR is, in fact, not legally enforceable. They should negotiate a settlement with exit fees and allow them to walk. Now, they don't want them to move to Fox/Big Ten, but a network cannot restrict movement (especially if another network is willing to pay equal to or more). However, that cannot be made public as they are still under rights with the ACC/ESPN. We will see who blinks first, but FSU and Clemson will eventually depart the ACC.

[GreatDaneAttorney]

I'm not that the SEC needs a GoR, I'm saying the enforceability of a GoR is good for everyone, because without it, most other exit clauses could also be challenged, and nobody wants a total free-for-all. In an environment like that, contracts cannot be long-term because nobody would ever pay for future uncertainty. It's why the AAC had such a terrible TV deal initially.

But yes, I agree the ACC and ESPN should just settle with FSU and Clemson before it's too late. But not to allow an exit. They should settle because it's in everyone's interest, even FSU and Clemson. They can avoid potentially several hundred million in exit fees/GoR settlements AND start earning ~P2 money right away. Win win.

And since the market can still probably accommodate a "P3", I think the ACC should fight tooth and nail to try and take that last spot from the Big XII. The ACC has big markets, it has national championship winners, it has basketball prestige, it has its own network, and it even has Notre Dame 95% in the conference. Among Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Notre Dame, they have enough haymakers to carve out a spot in a P3 role. If they can simply make ESPN realize that a settlement is in everyone's best interest, then the ACC can survive this short period of time until the Big XII TV deal expires and potentially become an aggressor, taking the top remaining Big XII brands.

It's murky and treacherous out there for the ACC, but there's absolutely a path forward here that leads to the league's ascension to an ~P3 state above the Big XII, while retaining all its top brands.

[kayako]

2 big assumptions some of you guys are making:

1. SEC & B10 will gut the ACC until it's unrecognizable.

2. Remaining ACC teams couldn't simply backfill.

I wouldn't count on many schools being courted by SEC & B10. Oregon and Washington will start earning full shares in 2030, and Rutgers probably sooner. By keep adding members, OSU and Michigan will not be happy when their payments are eventually diluted to hell. SEC? I can imagine FSU and UNC to protect and expand its influence in the region. Clemson's often mentioned but I don't see any reason to rush to add Clemson. B10 isn't going after Clemson.

ACC situation isn't like the PAC12 either, which had zero leverage with no media contract. If anything, I think the B12 is more likely to lose Utah, or all 4 former PAC12 members to the ACC in 2031. The key is if ACC is relatively intact. We'll see but I think it's foolish calling for its demise.

[admin]

Four schools are set to announce Thursday that they will depart the Mountain West Conference to join the Pac-12, sources confirmed to ESPN on Wednesday.

The Pac-12 board of directors unanimously approved applications from Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Fresno State for membership to begin in the 2026-27 academic year, sources said.

[X-man]

Four schools are set to announce Thursday that they will depart the Mountain West Conference to join the Pac-12, sources confirmed to ESPN on Wednesday.

The Pac-12 board of directors unanimously approved applications from Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Fresno State for membership to begin in the 2026-27 academic year, sources said.

I am flying to Fort Collins this weekend to visit my brother and his wife, both of CSU. I'll see if they have any inside scoop on this decision to leave the MWC, which seems on its face to be a lateral move.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Four schools are set to announce Thursday that they will depart the Mountain West Conference to join the Pac-12, sources confirmed to ESPN on Wednesday.

The Pac-12 board of directors unanimously approved applications from Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Fresno State for membership to begin in the 2026-27 academic year, sources said.

I am flying to Fort Collins this weekend to visit my brother and his wife, both of CSU. I'll see if they have any inside scoop on this decision to leave the MWC, which seems on its face to be a lateral move.

Hardly. OSU and WSU just poached the top value of the MWC for themselves, while leaving behind the bottom-earners/spenders. It is now rumored that they are targeting select AAC schools to round-out a smaller league.

Somebody (CW?) is offering money behind the scenes that would be a higher payout than the MWC; time will reveal the details, but it is a smart move for these select MWC schools. The two interesting names left out (for now) are Air Force and UNLV. Air Force has always been historically tied to CSU, but perhaps they are a better fit with the service academics for football in the American. Las Vegas is the fastest growing sports media market in the country, and it will (likely) get an NBA franchise within the decade. Just from a market and geography perspective, it is intriguing why neither was included, but perhaps that there are other potential moves in-play. I certainly don't subscribe to the USF/UConn possibility for this new PAC, but Tulane, Texas State, UTEP, UTSA, Wichita State are each names to keep in mind in the coming months ahead.

[admin]

Air Force has emerged as a serious target to be added to the American Athletic Conference, sources told ESPN on Monday.

Air Force had been referenced in conversations as a potential AAC add in recent months, prior to the Pac-12 taking four Mountain West Conference schools last week. The AAC has 14 football schools this season, including Army and Navy.

[Gopher+RamFan]

@Brett_McMurphy: Gonzaga leaving West Coast Conference to join Pac-12, source told
@ActionNetworkHQ
. Pac-12 still needs minimum of two football members by 2026, but Gonzaga, even w/out a football team, will receive a full conference revenue share in Pac-12, source said

I've long posted here stating that Gonzaga was a non-starter due to distance and the strain it would place on their non-revenue sports. Getting a full Pac-12 share is great for their program.

[stever20]

Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, and USF all are sticking with the AAC.

So are we going to see just MWC and Pac merge now?