Conference Realignment: What Next?

[GoldenWarrior11]

Lots of speculation out there that OK and Texas could get out of paying if the whole league ending up dissolving, but the "losers" in the deal who get stuck in the Big 12 might be enriched substantially by holding things together with whomever they can.

Yeah, and tourney credits, too, and they'll have no trouble enticing top G5 schools because even in a reduced state, B12 does not have the Tulsas and ECUs to split the revenue with. AAC's P6 campaign probably ended with this, I think.

I always forget that West Virginia is in the Big 12 too. What happens to them? Only the ACC makes sense geographically, but would they want them?

No. There is historical animosity between the ACC and WVU. In addition, the ACC had to really turn the other way regarding Louisville's academics. Not sure they do that for another member.

West Virginia thrived in football when they had regular access to Florida, as they used to recruit that region very well. I would bet that they would be all over inviting UCF/USF and Cincinnati to the Big 12.

[ArmyVet]

Kansas has scheduled some type of call with the Big Ten according to reports.

[Burrito]

Conference realignment is all about Football. Kansas is awful at football. And the Big 10 recently added other mediocre football programs with Rutgers and Maryland.

[Xudash]

The exit fees from Texas and Oklahoma will be just over $150 million, paid out through the end of the current GOR in 2025. Assuming Texas and Oklahoma are in the Big 12 through only this next year, that would mean there would be three years of exits fees to distribute to the Big 8 (remaining members of the Big 12). It comes out to, roughly, $19 million per school, just over $6 million per school per year. In the long-run those are peanuts. I liken it to the scene in Goodfellas, where Henry Hill is given a wad of cash from Paulie, after he loses his connections and associations. "Thirty-two hundred dollars he gave me. Thirty-two hundred dollars for a lifetime. It wasn't even enough to pay for the coffin."

I wouldn't be shocked to see the new Big 12 TV deal pay out below $20 million per member annually, with the losses of Texas and Oklahoma. It might very well be in the $15 million range, assuming it just picks up a Cincinnati or UCF. That, in turn, rips up the AAC TV contract and drops their value likely below $5 million.

Excellent post. Loved the Goodfellas reference, and it is spot on.

As a Xavier fan, I am interested in UC's predicament in all this. Objectively, I think it would be safe to assume at this point that, assuming UT and OU exit the conference, the Big12 will prove to be an upgrade for UC, as compared to staying in the AAC as it exists today, assuming the right additions are made to the conference to make up for the losses of those two bellwether programs. It will be an upgrade, but it won't be enough.

UC is tapped out as it stands now. A lot of money was pumped into Nippert and the remodeling of 5th/3rd Arena. It incurs real losses within its athletic budget. Those losses are subsidized by healthy student fees. The academic side of that campus continues to grumble about UC's priorities. It all makes for a big mess in Clifton.

College football programs could be broken down and slotted into Heaven, Purgatory and Hell categories. It's been that way for years, but real clarity is being brought to those classifications now.

Heaven? The obvious: Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas, USC, Michigan (although in hell right now!), and a sprinkling of other SEC and other P5 teams. Depends upon how you define it. Is it about money (i.e. payouts / finances) or is it the ability to win national championships? If it's the latter, then the above list is it; it would be about the ability to be in the club and collect big paychecks. Schools like Indiana and Arizona, as examples, could continue to enjoy being in the club, collecting their share of the money, but while watching the playoffs every year. If it's the former, then it is that very short list of schools that look like Ohio State, Alabama, etc. Things may be cyclical to a degree, but the juggernauts with the 100,000+ capacity stadiums, rabid fan bases, tradition et al will be and remain in a very exclusive club.

Purgatory? Any school that ends up continuing to field a football team that has some fanbase attached to it, but which funds itself heavily from student fees. More to the point, any program that is part of an inadequate - payouts are too low to effectively fund a football program - media agreement. These are programs that want and feel they need football and continue to field teams, but they feel it financially overall within the institution.

Hell? MAC schools, C-USA, MWC, etc. Schools that do not have a prayer in hell of winning a NC and that mostly can only hope for something named along the lines of the Poulan Weedeater Bowl at the end of the season. Programs that clearly operate in the red. Programs that are at risk of dropping from the CFB grouping.

[gtmoBlue]

heh, heh. Nothing is carved in stone Husky. I'd gladly see you go if we have a shot at some ACC outcasts
or KU/Baylor. Just saying, bro.

[GoldenWarrior11]

For the Big East, I wonder what this does for the Big 12 Battle. Do we look to opt-out? Or do we wait and see who they add? If they do add a UCF or a Boise State, I think we look to bail. Cincinnati or Memphis or Houston? Look to keep?

[gtmoBlue]

We are moving towards both the SEC and B1G acquiring and consolidating all of the top remaining brands in college athletics. I very much see, eventually, the B1G taking the AAU PAC programs, along with the "Holy Grail" - UNC, Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech - that was the original Jim Delaney vision. The SEC, in addition to Texas and Oklahoma, would eventually acquire Florida State, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and a few others. What we finish with is two national ultra-conferences that replace the NCAA as the higher authority in governance and oversight in college athletics. This is the start of slicing off the non-valuable entities in the P5 - the Kansas States, Washington States, Oregon States, Wake Forests, etc. - and keeping all of the revenues (and more) to the top grouping. Between the NIL and the expansion of the CFP, this is all coordinated. We are likely in for a rogue wave of realignment that will make the 2010-11 cycle look like a kiddy pool.

I share this opinion wholeheartedly. The Big East is not totally "safe" like some have suggested. We're probably fine for a few years, but power is shifting rapidly. The Big East will want to watch very carefully and may benefit from making some aggressive moves.

I agree that the P5 is about to shrink considerably. Maybe not even 40 programs will make the cut.

THIS IS THE WAY...The ONLY WAY!

I love this scenario. Expansion, contraction, chaos, a new football universe. This would greatly expand the school pool from which we would grow.
No more grasping at loose straws from the West or SW (St Marys, Zags, BYU). No more the random inclusion of Wake Forest. Such chaos would toss lesser football schools that
are currently "hiding in plain sight" within the Football Five security blanket, into the streets. Puke, Vandy, WF, S'Cuse, Kansas, Baylor, and many others would suddenly be homeless.
New opiodheads/crackheads looking to do whatever it takes to regain some security. The Beast would take the picks of the litter-literally & figuratively.

[gtmoBlue]

For the Big East, I wonder what this does for the Big 12 Battle. Do we look to opt-out? Or do we wait and see who they add? If they do add a UCF or a Boise State, I think we look to bail. Cincinnati or Memphis or Houston? Look to keep?

the dust is just now rising...we've a ways to go. Let football's nature take its' course, then let the dust settle a bit. It's early and Fox will
let ratings help to make their decision.

[Husky_U]

heh, heh. Nothing is carved in stone Husky. I'd gladly see you go if we have a shot at some ACC outcasts
or KU/Baylor. Just saying, bro.

Keep it up and I'll have Val replace you with Wichita.

[Xudash]

heh, heh. Nothing is carved in stone Husky. I'd gladly see you go if we have a shot at some ACC outcasts
or KU/Baylor. Just saying, bro.

Keep it up and I'll have Val replace you with Wichita.

Please don't do that. That would be extreme punishment for us. git didn't mean it!