Would Miller Have Left Dayton If They Were In The BE?

[BEXU]

“There’s really been no negatives,” said Larry Jones, a Fox executive vice president.

[_lh]

So you don't think in 8 years when this TV deal is up that Fox will say to keep getting 4 million per school per year, we must have more volume? That's the biggest thing that folks here want to ignore. 10 may be great for Big East Fans but I'm not so sure about Fox liking having at the most only 5 games to choose from each game round. So I think that's something that really has got to be watched in about 6 years. And lets say VCU keeps on for 6 years- making tourney each year. That would be 13 straight tournament appearances with at least 3 coaches.

FOX is already selling multiple games per year to CBS. Why do you think they need more volume if they are already selling their current volume? Plus add in the addition of the Big 10 - FOX isn't going to need or want more volume.

Further, why do people think any of the teams that their fans come on here to bring up would move the needle AT ALL in terms of viewership? If the opportunity to add a UConn or Notre Dame were to materialize - yea, FOX would be all over that. To add a VCU or Dayton or SLU or Witchita State? None of those schools move the needle in terms of viewership.

Agreed. Not only that but no one knows what TV will look like in 6 years or 10 years. Discussing expansion now to potentially make FS1 happy 6 years from how, when we don't even know if most people will have cable in 6 years is just silly.

I think we can all agree that non of the current potential candidates for expansion make any sense. They do nothing for the BE. Certain school not available would make sense to add but none that are currently available.

Some seem to think adding VCU or UD is going to magically make FSI drool all over themselves to give the BE more money. I just don't see it.

[stever20]

So you don't think in 8 years when this TV deal is up that Fox will say to keep getting 4 million per school per year, we must have more volume? That's the biggest thing that folks here want to ignore. 10 may be great for Big East Fans but I'm not so sure about Fox liking having at the most only 5 games to choose from each game round. So I think that's something that really has got to be watched in about 6 years. And lets say VCU keeps on for 6 years- making tourney each year. That would be 13 straight tournament appearances with at least 3 coaches.

FOX is already selling multiple games per year to CBS. Why do you think they need more volume if they are already selling their current volume? Plus add in the addition of the Big 10 - FOX isn't going to need or want more volume.

Further, why do people think any of the teams that their fans come on here to bring up would move the needle AT ALL in terms of viewership? If the opportunity to add a UConn or Notre Dame were to materialize - yea, FOX would be all over that. To add a VCU or Dayton or SLU or Witchita State? None of those schools move the needle in terms of viewership.

Volume might be the wrong word- but choice would be the right one. You're telling me Fox wouldn't want to have the chance instead of showing a DePaul/Villanova game a VCU/Villanova game? Right.

Big Ten addition- it's not anywhere near as big of a deal as folks here want to make it seem. It's 50 basketball games. Over what 17 weeks. Like 2-3 games a week. Compare that to the Big East with 100 games.

If ratings haven't continued to improve- and frankly by a much bigger margin than they have been- Fox is going to want expansion to just keep paying what they have. To act like it's impossible fox would want that is comical. Having more schools means no round robin which means top teams don't have to see the worst teams in the league twice in a season. Which Fox would like very much.

[gtmoBlue]

Good comments Stever.

More GOOD content will be a boon to the league's ratings. Take the Zags and 1 other private, up & comer school/media market now (probably SLU or BYU). Such an increase will help the viewership, regardless what the Fox/B1G setup does. Agree that this was Supposed-To-Be Georgetown and Marquette's league and the rest of us were allowed to tag along for the ride. The league has been let down by its' other marquee schools in G'twn, Marquette, and St Johns. As long as those 3 underachieve the ratings numbers will lag behind. Thank God for Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, and the newbies.
Bringing in Gonzaga will help while we wait for football 5 fallout in a few years time (S'cuse, ND, Duke, WF). The St Johns/G'twn coaching gamble may not pay the dividends that their fans hope for. It is best to strike from a position of relative strength now, rather than out of necessity later.

[Savannah Jay]

So you don't think in 8 years when this TV deal is up that Fox will say to keep getting 4 million per school per year, we must have more volume? That's the biggest thing that folks here want to ignore. 10 may be great for Big East Fans but I'm not so sure about Fox liking having at the most only 5 games to choose from each game round. So I think that's something that really has got to be watched in about 6 years. And lets say VCU keeps on for 6 years- making tourney each year. That would be 13 straight tournament appearances with at least 3 coaches.

FOX is already selling multiple games per year to CBS. Why do you think they need more volume if they are already selling their current volume? Plus add in the addition of the Big 10 - FOX isn't going to need or want more volume.

Further, why do people think any of the teams that their fans come on here to bring up would move the needle AT ALL in terms of viewership? If the opportunity to add a UConn or Notre Dame were to materialize - yea, FOX would be all over that. To add a VCU or Dayton or SLU or Witchita State? None of those schools move the needle in terms of viewership.

Volume might be the wrong word- but choice would be the right one. You're telling me Fox wouldn't want to have the chance instead of showing a DePaul/Villanova game a VCU/Villanova game? Right.

Big Ten addition- it's not anywhere near as big of a deal as folks here want to make it seem. It's 50 basketball games. Over what 17 weeks. Like 2-3 games a week. Compare that to the Big East with 100 games.

If ratings haven't continued to improve- and frankly by a much bigger margin than they have been- Fox is going to want expansion to just keep paying what they have. To act like it's impossible fox would want that is comical. Having more schools means no round robin which means top teams don't have to see the worst teams in the league twice in a season. Which Fox would like very much.

The problem with an unbalanced schedule is that, yes, there will be some years when Villanova gets Xavier twice and DePaul once, which Fox would love. But the reverse is also true. There will be years when Villanova gets DePaul twice and X once.

What the league needs more than expansion is for Georgetown and St. Johns to be really good again and for DePaul to seem like they care a little bit. The ratings this year jumped significantly (thank you Villanova). Every new TV venture takes a while to build ratings, including the WWL's. When the current TV contract is up, the league will benefit far more in negotiations if the Hoyas and Johnnies are final four caliber teams than if VCU (or Dayton, or SLU, or fill in the blank) are in the league.

[stever20]

The problem with an unbalanced schedule is that, yes, there will be some years when Villanova gets Xavier twice and DePaul once, which Fox would love. But the reverse is also true. There will be years when Villanova gets DePaul twice and X once.

What the league needs more than expansion is for Georgetown and St. Johns to be really good again and for DePaul to seem like they care a little bit. The ratings this year jumped significantly (thank you Villanova). Every new TV venture takes a while to build ratings, including the WWL's. When the current TV contract is up, the league will benefit far more in negotiations if the Hoyas and Johnnies are final four caliber teams than if VCU (or Dayton, or SLU, or fill in the blank) are in the league.

The problem with your first statement is the league makes sure that like right now, Nova would ALWAYS play DePaul only once. I mean you look at the old Big East. DePaul never played the top teams twice. DePaul doesn't like it- get better.

The problem is 90 conference games is still only 90 conference games. Along with roughly 70 OOC games(of which 50 are unshowable). Compare to with 12 teams with 108 conference games and then roughly 95 OOC games(of which 70 are unshowable). So goes from about 110 good games to 133 good games. Also You have the MSG thing where 12 teams equals 1 more session of the BET.

I just do not think the league and fox views the round robin as an absolute sacred cow- not the way folks here want to make it seem.

[Xavier4036]

So you don't think in 8 years when this TV deal is up that Fox will say to keep getting 4 million per school per year, we must have more volume? That's the biggest thing that folks here want to ignore. 10 may be great for Big East Fans but I'm not so sure about Fox liking having at the most only 5 games to choose from each game round. So I think that's something that really has got to be watched in about 6 years. And lets say VCU keeps on for 6 years- making tourney each year. That would be 13 straight tournament appearances with at least 3 coaches.

FOX is already selling multiple games per year to CBS. Why do you think they need more volume if they are already selling their current volume? Plus add in the addition of the Big 10 - FOX isn't going to need or want more volume.

Further, why do people think any of the teams that their fans come on here to bring up would move the needle AT ALL in terms of viewership? If the opportunity to add a UConn or Notre Dame were to materialize - yea, FOX would be all over that. To add a VCU or Dayton or SLU or Witchita State? None of those schools move the needle in terms of viewership.

Stever made an excellent point. Moreover, more members means more eyeballs interested in Big East games even when their school isn't directly involved. Even if they don't broadcast any more games, I expect that they'd like the games they do broadcast to get higher ratings than they have been getting. VCU, for example, has an enrollment of 30,000. That's a lot of potential viewers from students, families, and alums. They're the largest public university in a state with a population of 8 million.

Bill, VCU isn't moving the ratings needle. If VCU was that prized of a possession and had blockbuster ratings the A-10 would have a better TV deal than the absolutely abysmal one they have right now. The onlyschools that would have the potential to move the ratings needle significantly (and plausibly ever seek admission to the BE) would be UConn and Notre Dame. A state school in Virginia that has made it to the Sweet 16 once in its entire history will not move the ratings needle on a national channel like FS1 or FOX.

Further, Steve's insistence that FOX will DEMAND the Big East adds more schools because Fox needs more volume - makes no logical sense. If FOX needed more inventory, they wouldn't currently be selling multiple games to CBS. To dabble in Stever's world and ignore the fact FOX doesn't want/need more inventory because it is already selling its current inventory to CBS, any perceived inventory need will be filled by the addition of the Big 10.

[stever20]

What exactly is Fox selling CBS? Some of the lower tier games they don't want to air. DePaul and St John's- projected to finish 9th and 10th- were both on there 3 times this year in conference play.

By getting 2 more teams, the number of conference games goes up from 90 to 108. The number of OOC home games goes up from approx. 70 to approx. 84(saying 7 per school). So number of games goes up from 160 to 192. So even if Fox doesn't air more games, they get more of the better games.

You can act like the round robin is a sacred cow. I don't believe for a second that the Big East or ESPECIALLY Fox views the round robin as a sacred cow. Do you think they want to have good teams having to play DePaul twice? No way in hell. It hurts the RPI and folks don't want to watch it.

[Bill Marsh]

FOX is already selling multiple games per year to CBS. Why do you think they need more volume if they are already selling their current volume? Plus add in the addition of the Big 10 - FOX isn't going to need or want more volume.

Further, why do people think any of the teams that their fans come on here to bring up would move the needle AT ALL in terms of viewership? If the opportunity to add a UConn or Notre Dame were to materialize - yea, FOX would be all over that. To add a VCU or Dayton or SLU or Witchita State? None of those schools move the needle in terms of viewership.

Stever made an excellent point. Moreover, more members means more eyeballs interested in Big East games even when their school isn't directly involved. Even if they don't broadcast any more games, I expect that they'd like the games they do broadcast to get higher ratings than they have been getting. VCU, for example, has an enrollment of 30,000. That's a lot of potential viewers from students, families, and alums. They're the largest public university in a state with a population of 8 million.

Bill, VCU isn't moving the ratings needle. If VCU was that prized of a possession and had blockbuster ratings the A-10 would have a better TV deal than the absolutely abysmal one they have right now. The onlyschools that would have the potential to move the ratings needle significantly (and plausibly ever seek admission to the BE) would be UConn and Notre Dame. A state school in Virginia that has made it to the Sweet 16 once in its entire history will not move the ratings needle on a national channel like FS1 or FOX.

Further, Steve's insistence that FOX will DEMAND the Big East adds more schools because Fox needs more volume - makes no logical sense. If FOX needed more inventory, they wouldn't currently be selling multiple games to CBS. To dabble in Stever's world and ignore the fact FOX doesn't want/need more inventory because it is already selling its current inventory to CBS, any perceived inventory need will be filled by the addition of the Big 10.

I couldn't disagree with you more. Teams don't move needles by themselves - with rare exceptions. Were Creighton, Butler, and Xavier chose because they were going to "move the needle"? Good teams in bad leagues make for bad games that no one wants to watch. VCU in the A10 doesn't make up for Fordham, Duquesne, Bonaventure, St Louis, etc. follow your own logic. On the one hand, you're claiming that UConn would move the needle, but OTOH you're pointing to conference TV contract to prove that VCU doesn't move the needle. Following that logic, the pithy AAC contract is evidence that UConn doesn't move the needle. Bit we all know that they would if they were in the right conference.

Regardless of whether a team would move any needles, that should not be the criterion for membership. If it were, UConn would never have been invited to the Big East back in 1979. Creighton would not have been invited in 2013. VCU right now has a far, far better history than UConn did back then. Candidates should be evaluated not only on their history of success, but by how well they are managed, by their level of commitment, by their level of fan and alumni support, by their facilities, by how well they are financed, by their market potential, and the like. VCU scores well on all those criteria. In addition, they are right on the edge of the footprint, have relatively easy access to MSG for the BE tournament, and have a history of fans traveling to NYC (Barkleys) for their conference tournament. The VCU program would potentially make the BE a stronger conference and their program shows the potential to grow with the benefits of conference membership - just as UConn's did.

The fact that Fox is selling games to CBS means absolutely nothing in terms of inventory. it's a business decision. If they can make more money by selling games to CBS than they can by putting the game on FS2, then they'll sell the games. That's a factor of the strength of FS2 and the ability of those matchups to draw an audience. Furthermore, selling games on a Tuesday night is not the same as selling them on a Saturday or Sunday when there are many more programming slots. I remember one Saturday when all BE teams played on Saturday and there were no games on Sunday. Fox couldn't have used more inventory that weekend? More inventory doesn't just mean more games but it also means more high quality games to choose from. They don't want inventory for the sake of inventory, but they do want matchups that will i,prove ratings, a Gonzaga-Villanova matchup would draw a lot more eyeballs than a DePaul-Villanova rating. Frankly the fact that Fox spent money on B1G means could just as readily be considered a sign of dissatisfaction with BE ratings as a sign that there inventory is now full.

We have no idea what discussions are going on between Fox me the Big East, but it was widely reported in 2012-13 that they favore a 12 team league. I imagine that they still do. Those reports support Stever's hypothesis that they will be asking the conference to expand. Stever is just speculating, but it's not a wild idea.

[milksteak]

I hate to derail this thread, but I thought I would provide some local insight on how people are handling the Miller hire (I live in the Indianapolis area, FYI). It''s relatively relevant to the thread.

Generally, I would say people are "happy" with the hire, but they aren't treating it as a "slam dunk" like a lot of the national media guys are. Names regularly mentioned for the job by IU fans: Brad Stevens, Billy Donovan, Steve Alford, Sean Miller, Chris Mack, Fred Hoiberg, Tony Bennett, Gregg Marshall, Tom Izzo, Thad Matta (I think that mostly covers it). Some fans were rather delusional thinking some of those coaches were actually options.

I think it is a "B" hire. I think Marshall or Alford would've been "better" hires, but they both have so much baggage. The timing of the hire suggests Miller wasn't their first choice.