Non-Big East Conference Realignment Thread v. 2017

[Westbrook#36]

No, I'm disagreeing with you that Uconn isn't trending in the wrong direction, they are. I'll leave it at that, because you get ultra defensive about Uconn.

[EMT]

No, I'm disagreeing with you that Uconn isn't trending in the wrong direction, they are. I'll leave it at that, because you get ultra defensive about Uconn.

FIFY:

No, I'm disagreeing with you that Uconn isn't trending in the wrong direction, they are. I'll leave it at that, because you get ultra defensive about anyone disagreeing with you.

[Bill Marsh]

Hey, guys, chill a little. Just tell me what you want. I like a spirited discussion. I thought that's what people came here for. If you want me to respond differently, I'm open to suggestion. No hard feelings. It's all good.

[ecasadoSBU]

As a Uconn fan I think they are definitely down. Being bad in the Big East is not the same as being bad in the AAC. Their struggles in the AAC have even led to much lower attendance. I hope they can right the ship soon enough and maybe get into the Big East conference. This situation sucks for everyone. The AAC tournament was hosted in Hartford and they couldn't even draw good crowds to their games.

[EMT]

As a Uconn fan I think they are definitely down. Being bad in the Big East is not the same as being bad in the AAC. Their struggles in the AAC have even led to much lower attendance. I hope they can right the ship soon enough and maybe get into the Big East conference. This situation sucks for everyone. The AAC tournament was hosted in Hartford and they couldn't even draw good crowds to their games.

So, as a UConn fan, couple of questions:

1. Is the jury still out on Ollie? To me, he has eerie similarities to Mike Davis replacing Bobby Knight.

2. Where is UConn basketball in 10 years if the AAC remains their home?

[Bill Marsh]

As a Uconn fan I think they are definitely down. Being bad in the Big East is not the same as being bad in the AAC. Their struggles in the AAC have even led to much lower attendance. I hope they can right the ship soon enough and maybe get into the Big East conference. This situation sucks for everyone. The AAC tournament was hosted in Hartford and they couldn't even draw good crowds to their games.

The fact is that attendance dropped immediately by 2000 in the last year of the Big East, coinciding with the announcement of the Big East break up, the postseason ban, and Calhoun's retirement. It remained at that same level in the AAC until this year. It wasn't struggles in the AAC that caused that, it was the fact that no one cared about games against East Carolina, Central Florida, Tulane, etc. The C7 knew that. It was the addition of those very football schools that prompted the C7 to split.

The AAC was particularly devastating to attendance at the Civic Center. It was sell outs of 16,000 vs Syracuse and the rest at the Covic Center that boosted UConn's average attendance beyond the 10,000+ Gampel Pavilion capacity. Those games have disappeared. Here's the Gampel schedule from a recent season (2014-15), the first one that popped up when I googled it:

Coppin State
Central Connecticut
Temple
Cincinnati
South Florida
Tulsa
SMU

How many people do you think were motivated to buy that package as compared with the number that bought a Civic Center package with the old Big East schedule?

There is no doubt that this season depressed attendance severely. But one season is not a trend. There are 2 factors that that go into this. First is that the Big East was a safety net that could sustain the attendance even in a down year. People still cared about the rivalries and hoped for an upset against the teams they loved to hate. There are no more rivalries and no more safety net. Second is that there are many alumni of the old Big East schools who live and work in Connecticut. They would go to games to see their alma maters even if they didn't care about UConn. There are no more ticket sales to alums of the opposition in the AAC. They simply don't live in New England.

Here is the UConn attendance for the past 15 years. For the first 5 years (2003-07), it averaged 13,500. For the next 5 years (2008-12), it averaged 12,000. Those 10 years were all Big East years. For the next 4 years (2013-16), it averaged 10,500. This year, it dropped to 8732. The first of the past 5 years was the last Big East season, followed by the 4 years in the AAC.

2003 - 13,229
2004 - 13,549
2005 - 13,771
2006 - 13,948
2007 - 13,012
2008 - 11,887
2009 - 12,578
2010 - 11,685
2011 - 11,569
2012 - 12,640
2013 - 10,728
2014 - 10,134
2015 - 10,687
2016 - 10,413
2017 -- 8,732

I'd have to do more research to explain thedrop from 2007 to 2008 and beyomd, but I vaguely recall that they were scheduling more games on campus and fewer at the Covic Center, coinciding with expansion of Gampel Pavilion. I may be wrong on that point. Bottom line is that the recent big drop in attendance came in their last yearn the Big East and stayed at that same level in the AAC until this year.

[BEhomer]

oh jury is still very much out on Ollie. However, I don't think he's in any kind of hot seat no matter what happens next year. He's earned that with a championship and he's their guy. and I think the team will be better next year anyway.

so comes the next question. where are they in 10 yrs. I think you're looking at that team right now. fringe NCAAT team sandwiched between some good regular season and some bad.

[stever20]

its one thing to look at overall attendance, but what about conference game attendance? That's the thing that is much more apples to apples.

just looking last 7 years....
2011 12556
2012 13517
2013 11729
2014 10806
2015 12077
2016 10928
2017 8866

I think this year probably was just an aberration with all the injuries etc.

[GoldenWarrior11]

its one thing to look at overall attendance, but what about conference game attendance? That's the thing that is much more apples to apples.

just looking last 7 years....
2011 12556
2012 13517
2013 11729
2014 10806
2015 12077
2016 10928
2017 8866

I think this year probably was just an aberration with all the injuries etc.

UConn was definitely hit hard by injuries - no doubt. But, would UConn fans concede that attendance doesn't drop that low if they had a Big East conference schedule as opposed to the American? That is what the root of UConn-to-the-Big East discussion is about. Even in down years, a conference should offer support and like-mindedness that allows schools and programs to rebound (I would even argue regionality, but that is clearly tossed out in the American).

UConn fans will never get excited about Tulane, East Carolina, Tulsa, Houston, SMU, ECU, UCF and USF. Temple, Cincinnati and Memphis - sure, but those three do not carry the same punch as a Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall and St. Johns.

A point I made a few weeks ago with Bill is whether or not it is ethical for a university to place the benefits of one program (football) over the needs of the rest - a move that UConn has clearly made and is committed to continue to make.

What if UConn struggles again next year? What if the American continues to be down? What if they don't add Wichita State? The pressure is on for the American, especially with the decrease in bids from mid-major conferences like the American. USF, Tulane and ECU will continue to drag down the bottom of the league, forcing the middle and the top to not only schedule harder OOC, but also win - in order to avoid the drain playing conference games against them causes.

I'm not advocating for UConn to come back to the Big East, but I do truly feel that UConn, long-term, needs the Big East more than some fans realize. It was clear when the separation occurred that UConn got the short stick. The question is how long and through what cost is UConn going to continue playing the hand they've been dealt, until they decide to either fold or turn in their cards for a different hand.

[billyjack]

Some numbers, regular season...
Just tossing these out there, cuz I haven't looked deep into them:
.
UCONN ATTENDANCE 2017:
.
Gampel:
Wagner 9523.
Northeastern 7573.
North Florida 7110.
UCF 8163.
Temple 6582.
East Carolina 5676.
Tulane 9207.
So Florida 6114.
Cincinnati 9331.
.
Hartford:
Boston U. 8183.
Auburn 12051.
Houston 11538.
Memphis 9631.
SMU 13553.
.
UCONN ATTENDANCE 2016:
.
Gampel:
Maine 10167.
New Hampshire 9047.
Furman 8190.
Ohio State 10167. <-- sellout
Memphis 9409.
East Carolina 9307.
Tulsa 10167. <-- sellout
Houston 9667.
UCF 10167. <-- sellout
.
Hartford:
Sacred Heart 8563.
UMass-Lowell 9848.
Central Conn State 7123.
Temple 11319.
Tulane 9516.
Georgetown 15564. <-- sellout
Cincinnati 13242.
SMU 15564. <-- sellout
.
UCONN ATTENDANCE 2015:
.
Gampel:
Bryant 10167. <-- sellout
Texas 10167. <-- sellout
Yale 9538.
UCF 10167. <-- sellout
East Carolina 8985.
Tulane 9212.
Memphis 10167. <-- sellout
.
Hartford:
Coppin State 8260.
Central Conn State 13315.
Temple 13428.
Cincinnati 15564. <-- sellout
So Florida 14105.
Tulsa 11506.
SMU 15564. <-- sellout
.
now, going back a little...
.
UCONN ATTENDANCE 2012:
.
Gampel:
Columbia 10167. <-- sellout
Wagner 9217.
Harvard 10167. <-- sellout
Cincinnati 10167. <-- sellout
DePaul 10167. <-- sellout
Syracuse 10167. <-- sellout
Pitt 10167. <-- sellout
.
Hartford:
Maine 10726.
Coppin State 11397.
Arkansas 14333.
Holy Cross 13396.
Fairfield 13821.
St John's 16294. <-- sellout
West Virginia 15805.
Notre Dame 16294. <-- sellout
Seton Hall 16294. <-- sellout
Marquette 16294. <-- sellout
.