Non-Big East Conference Realignment Thread v. 2017

[Toronto Rapture]

https://tmgcollegesports.com/2017/03/01/american-conference-looking-to-upgrade-hoops/

Not sure if I like this for our league.

I actually wouldn't mind this because I know that if VCU, Wichita or Dayton was ever invited to the BE they would leave the AAC in a heartbeat. It would be a good move for the AAAAAAC.

Hard to tell with the uncertainty of future TV revenue. It'd have to be pretty lopsided for them to deal with exit fees and jump over to us, and good expansion candidates are our biggest weapon in preparation for the next negotiation with Fox, ESPN, etc. We're in a good place and most of the teams are trending up, but ideally the BE probably needs an extra team or two in not sure distant future.

Its a fine line between being reactionary and proactive. The conference as it is right now is stable, but in order to remain so or even become stronger, it will likely have to grow at some point. It appears that there are no perfect candidates for expansion at this time, but waiting until the next round of P5 realignment could mean that even good candidates like a Wichita State might not be available by then, not to mention what other uncertainties that realignment might bring as well as uncertainties with the negotiation of the next TV contract and even with MSG remaining the site for the BE tourney in the future. On the other hand, you don't want to be reactionary and add members that are less than ideal. As a fan, I'm not sure what the right answer, but hopefully the leadership of the conference can make the right decisions.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

VCU and/or Dayton would never leave the A10 for the AAC.

Wichita State is not even on the radar of the Presidents of the Big East schools. It is a public commuter school with 14,500 students, very low academic standards, and a 96% acceptance rate. In short, it is the polar opposite of the Big East schools in every institutional category. The Shockers’ basketball team is having an off year and is on the bubble.

UDPride RPI Rankings – Thursday morning March 2nd

RPI Ranking – Team, W-L (Conf W-L) SOS Ranking • Record vs. RPI Top 100

21 – Dayton 23-5 (15-2) #64 • 11-4
22 -Virginia Commonwealth 23-7 (13-4) #56 • 7-5

41 – Wichita State 26-4 (17-1) #169 • 2-4
81 - Richmond 18-11 (12-5) #90 • 2-6
109 - Connecticut 13-15 (9-8) #46 • 3-10
242 - Saint Louis 11-19 (6-11) #137 • 0-11

Dayton clinches second-straight A-10 title, appears primed for postseason run – CBS Sports – March 1, 2016

Dayton beats VCU to secure the regular-season A-10 title and a 1-seed for the conference tournament

Dayton is back-to-back A-10 champs after beating the Rams, 79-72.

The Dayton victory, the Flyers’ ninth straight in league play, not only clinches the outright regular-season crown but also secures the top seed in the upcoming A-10 tournament in Pittsburgh.

It’s another notch in the budding resume for Archie Miller, who has not only led his team to consecutive conference titles, but also to three straight top-two finishes.

The sustained level of success is why Miller, if or when he chooses, will be one of the top coaching commodities in the country. He’s built Dayton into a power program year in and year out and shown that the Flyers can compete with the nation’s best.

UCONN lost to [RPI # 219] ECU today.....lol.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

. . . the next round of P5 realignment . . .

As I previously posted on Februaty 10th, the next round of P5 realignment will not affect the Big East:

The SEC generated $527.4 million of revenue and dispersed $457.8 million to its 14 member schools - an average of $32.7 million per school.

The Big Ten generated $448.8 million of revenue and dispersed $411.3 million to its 14 member schools - an average $32.4 million per school.

The Pac-12 generated $439 million of revenue and dispersed $301.4 million to its 12 member schools - an average of $25.1 million per school.

The ACC generated $403.1 million in revenue and dispersed $373 million to its 15 member schools - an average of $26.2 million per school.

The Big 12 generated $267.8 million in revenue and dispersed $227.2 million to its 10 member schools, - an average of $22.7 million per school.

Given the financial information above, and the fact that Vanderbilt, Duke and Wake Forest cannot be voted out of their respective conferences, why would any of these three schools choose to leave their present conferences?
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Many have speculated that we are eventually heading towards 4 power conferences, and it’s going to be a bit crazy to see just where everyone ends up, and whether all of the schools currently in P5 conferences will be able to remain in a power conference?

No.

2016 College Football Standings . . 2016 College Football Rankings . . 2017 College Basketball Standings. . 2017 College Basketball Rankings

It is not possible to reasonably speculate how good various college football and basketball programs will be eight years from now (because their future student-athletes are 10 to 14 years old now), but if the next big reshuffle happened this weekend, here are my guesses:

• The Big 10 will add Texas and Oklahoma to finish with 16 schools. Nebraska is already in the Big 10, and these rivalries attract national attention.

• The ACC will add Notre Dame football and West Virginia to finish with 16 schools. The Mountaineers are not a good academic fit for the ACC, but they are a very good geographic fit. The WV football team finished 18th in the Final AP Poll and the WV basketball team is ranked 13th in present AP Poll.

• The SEC will consider expanding to 16 schools, but ultimately remain at 14, as each school is presently getting an average of $32.7 million per school per year, and the available expansion candidate schools (from the Big 12 or elsewhere) would not bring commensurate revenue to the conference.

• The Pac 12 will remain at 12 schools, as each school is presently getting an average of $25.1 million per school per year, and the available expansion candidate schools (from the Big 12 or elsewhere) would not bring commensurate revenue to the conference. Also, there are no expansion candidate schools which are a good geographical fit for the Pac 12.

• The post-raid Big 12 will be down to 7 schools and must add 5 to 9 new schools in order to remain a viable conference. One of those schools will be Houston. The rest are anyone’s guess, but most will likely come from the American Athletic Conference. UConn will be at the front of the begging queue, but will be rejected because of geographic location (and poor football and basketball teams).

Big 12 Conference

Baylor University
Iowa State University
University of Kansas
Kansas State University
University of Oklahoma ==> Big 10
Oklahoma State University
University of Texas ==> Big 10
Texas Christian University
Texas Tech University
West Virginia University ==> ACC

[BEwannabe]

If VCU would entertain that notion it would be a quandary for the Flyers. Many UD fans would like an upgrade but the AAC seems unstable because the footballers have wandering eyes but VCU leaving would probably force UD's hand.

[H.U.S.T.L.E.]

VCU and/or Dayton would never leave the A10 for the AAC.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

I think the one advantage that the A10 can provide over the AAC is that the A10 allows teams to keep 75% of the earnings of tournament credits while the other 25% is split between conference members. I believe the AAC splits the profits evenly throughout the conference based on the total accumulated by the member schools.

So really, it could come down to this, and schools courted by the AAC would weigh this heavily - if more AAC schools are making appearances in the tournament and winning one or two games annually, the cost benefit goes in favor of the AAC than what VCU can earn on its own. There's strength in numbers, especially if a conference has a couple teams making deep tournament runs. The financial windfall the ACC received from the 2016 tournament with 4 teams in the Elite 8 and 2 teams in the Final Four is enormous.

I would also imagine the VCU finds greater value in playing college basketball brands like UConn, Cincy, Memphis, SMU and Temple every year over solid but not quite top-tier brands like Dayton, St. Bonaventure, GW, Davidson and UMass. Plus, they'd still likely keep the cross-town rivalry with Richmond, since that series was still alive while VCU was in the CAA and UR was in the A10.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

If VCU would entertain that notion it would be a quandary for the Flyers . . . VCU leaving would probably force UD's hand.

I strongly disgree. Apples and Oranges.



. . Atlantic 10 Conference footprint . . . . . . American Athletic Conference footprint

The Atlantic 10 is a much better geographic fit and a much better institutional fit for Dayton than the American Athletic Conference.

Dayton’s shared basketball history with fellow Catholic universities Duquesne, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph’s, LaSalle, and Fordham go back many generations, and Dayton is not going to join the AAC under any circumstances. VCU has no such ties to the A10.

Also, I don’t know how the AAC shares out its revenue, but for years, the Flyers have had all of their games televised, and Dayton gets to keep the vast majority of that revenue, with only a small part of it going to the Atlantic 10 Conference and its member schools.

Ditto for the NCAA Tournament units Dayton earns. Archie Miller’s 5-3 NCAA Tournament record generated 8 units worth about $1.6 million each for a total of $12.8 million – 75% of which goes to Dayton.

If VCU want to move to the AAC, they will, but I consider that to be highly improbable, and any such decision by VCU will not cause Dayton to follow.

[BEwannabe]

The Fieldhouse Flyer person makes my head spin.

[stever20]

The thing is, if VCU were to leave for the AAC, the A10 would be down to Dayton, maybe Rhode Island, and then a huge drop off. I mean this year in the A10 in KP- only those 3 are in the top 87. In RPI, those 3 are the only ones in the top 80. Only 3 others in the top 100 of KP and only 2 in the RPI. So if VCU were gone, Dayton would be in really deep trouble. The A10 would be lucky to be as good as the MVC was this year if VCU is gone. And it would be a whole hell of a lot harder to keep Archie Miller in a conference like that.

[Bluejay]

So we are to believe that the AAC is going to try to create the same sort of conference that the BE was before the split - a hodgepodge of football and non-football schools? I'm not sure I'm buying it...eventually the same problems will be present and the two blocs will end up in a dispute. Maybe UConn is counting on being a short-timer anyway and isn't worried about a similar outcome?

After seeing this new story, I can't help but think that Rothstein's little comments a few weeks back about UConn having talks with the BE may have just been a plant by UConn to get some of the football schools on board with adding some basketball schools....

[TheDon]

What a garbage article. Blaudschun was so wrong on the C7 split and who was joining he lost all credibility. And now he has his own site where he pimps for clicks and posts a couple of sentences and tells you to subscribe to read more. Umm, no thanks.