How many Big East teams will make the NCAA tourney?

[stever20]

Syracuse would have a overall SOS of 44 and a OOC SOS of 168 6-7 proj vs top 50, 9-10 proj vs top 100
Marquette would have a overall SOS of 55 and a OOC SOS of 232. 5-7 proj vs top 50, 9-11 proj vs top 100

Then you add in the conference tourney.
Marquette would be playing Creighton most likely.
Syracuse would be if they finish 10-8 either the 6 or 7 seed(would hinge on the Miami/Va Tech game). So they would get in the 1st round the 10 or 11 seed- Wake Forest or Georgia Tech. (this is why that win vs Duke was so gigantic because it took them almost definitely out of that 8/9 game).

I think both Marquette and Syracuse need 2 wins to seal their spot. The thing is, I feel like Syracuse with Georgia Tech and then Wake Forest or Georgia Tech left has a whole lot easier road than Marquette with their schedule of @ Providence, @ Xavier, Creighton, and then vs Creighton.

[milksteak]

Here's Team Rankings Selection Sunday projection update for today:

#1 Villanova (3rd overall)...100% chance for NCAA bid, 47% chance for auto-bid
#2 Butler (6th overall)...100% chance for NCAA bid, 18% chance for auto-bid
#5 Creighton (20th overall)...100% chance for NCAA bid, 14% chance for auto-bid
#9 Xavier (33rd overall)...94% chance for NCAA bid, 8% for auto-bid
#10 Marquette (39th overall)...53% chance for NCAA bid, 7% for auto-bid
#12 Seton Hall (50th overall)...46% chance for NCAA bid, 2% chance for auto-bid

Providence: 41% chance for bid, 2% chance for auto-bid
Georgetown: 5% chance for bid, 2% chance for auto-bid
St. John's: 0% chance for bid, 0% chance for auto-bid
DePaul: 0% chance for bid, 0% chance for auto-bid

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... gy/detail/

Let's dig into it a little more for Xavier, Marquette, Seton Hall and Providence...

1. For Xavier, everything is gonna have to go wrong for them to miss the field. If they lose out, they will have 18 wins. With 18 wins, they would have a 23.0% chance of making the field. If they only win one more game (19 wins total), they would still have a 68.6% chance of making the field. They have a 75.5% chance of getting at least 20 wins. With 20 wins, they have a 94.1% chance of making the field. Xavier should be fine, but they still have a little bit of work to do.

2. If Marquette gets two more wins, Team Rankings says they have a 79.4% chance of getting a bid. With 21 wins, they would have a 95.5% chance. KenPom and TeamRankings both predict one more win in the regular season (at home against Creighton). They are expected to finish 5th in conference, which likely puts them against Xavier in the Big East Tournament. Currently, Marquette would probably be about a 1-point statistical favorite against Xavier on a neutral floor. Marquette fans are going to be sweating for the next few weeks, but they are comfortably in the field with two more wins. With one more win, they only have a 44.3% chance of making it.

3. At 20 wins, Seton Hall has a 70.1% chance of making the tournament. Unfortunately, they are three wins away from 20. They should win their next two games (vs. DePaul, vs. Georgetown), but winning at Butler on Senior Day will be very tough. At 19 wins, they have only a 35.0% chance of making the field. Seton Hall will likely finish 6th in the conference, which means they would face Creighton in the Big East Tournament. On a neutral court, Creighton would be statistically favored by a few points. Gonna be tough, but Seton Hall has a shot at making the field.

4. Providence (at the moment) is the perfect case of too little, too late. They have a 60.1% chance at a bid with 20 wins. With 21 wins, they have a 86.8% chance at a bid. Unfortunately, they only have a 23.1% chance at 20 wins, and 21 wins is very unlikely. They should beat DePaul at home, but Marquette at home and @ St. John's are basically pick'ems. Should Providence win out, they would be 10-8 in conference, which would likely put them in 4th (they would own the tiebreaker with Xavier). They would probably play Xavier in the Big East Tournament, but they would probably not be favored in the game. Long story short, Providence is on life-support.

[MUWarrior1090]

to say that Marquette at 9-9 would be a lock with a RPI of 70 is comical. They would need to win in the BET in what would likely be a game with Creighton I think. If they are 18-13, things would be really dicey for them. No way would that be a 50/50 shot.

The problem looking at the Matrix is sure they're in a lot of brackets.. But they are in a lot of folks 1st 4 right now where a loss or 2 and they are out.

Also, the one thing that would give me pause for Marquette fans quite frankly is the bracket reveal from a few weeks ago. The committee used RPI quite a lot in that.

If it's comical to say that Marquette would be a lock with an RPI of 70, why did you say in another thread that Syracuse is a lock when their RPI projects to 75?

3
I never said they would be a lock at 9-9. I said 9-9 with a win in the BET. I would be sweating it out big time at 18-13. And the committee may have used RPI, but they also made it known top 50 wins were very important and MU has 5 of those and would likely end up with 7 if they can get to 19 wins

[MUPanther]

I think the conference tournament is virtually meaningless. People always act like those games matter, but I can't remember anyone playing their way in or out in recent years. If you're not part of their bracket on Tuesday, nothing you do after will change that unless you win the automatic bid.

The committee says they start seeding the teams on Friday. If that is the case, the 36 at-large spots are picked. Making bubble teams runs in conference tournaments almost meaningless, unless they win it all.

[Hall2012]

Here's Team Rankings Selection Sunday projection update for today:

#1 Villanova (3rd overall)...100% chance for NCAA bid, 47% chance for auto-bid
#2 Butler (6th overall)...100% chance for NCAA bid, 18% chance for auto-bid
#5 Creighton (20th overall)...100% chance for NCAA bid, 14% chance for auto-bid
#9 Xavier (33rd overall)...94% chance for NCAA bid, 8% for auto-bid
#10 Marquette (39th overall)...53% chance for NCAA bid, 7% for auto-bid
#12 Seton Hall (50th overall)...46% chance for NCAA bid, 2% chance for auto-bid

Providence: 41% chance for bid, 2% chance for auto-bid
Georgetown: 5% chance for bid, 2% chance for auto-bid
St. John's: 0% chance for bid, 0% chance for auto-bid
DePaul: 0% chance for bid, 0% chance for auto-bid

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... gy/detail/

Let's dig into it a little more for Xavier, Marquette, Seton Hall and Providence...

1. For Xavier, everything is gonna have to go wrong for them to miss the field. If they lose out, they will have 18 wins. With 18 wins, they would have a 23.0% chance of making the field. If they only win one more game (19 wins total), they would still have a 68.6% chance of making the field. They have a 75.5% chance of getting at least 20 wins. With 20 wins, they have a 94.1% chance of making the field. Xavier should be fine, but they still have a little bit of work to do.

2. If Marquette gets two more wins, Team Rankings says they have a 79.4% chance of getting a bid. With 21 wins, they would have a 95.5% chance. KenPom and TeamRankings both predict one more win in the regular season (at home against Creighton). They are expected to finish 5th in conference, which likely puts them against Xavier in the Big East Tournament. Currently, Marquette would probably be about a 1-point statistical favorite against Xavier on a neutral floor. Marquette fans are going to be sweating for the next few weeks, but they are comfortably in the field with two more wins. With one more win, they only have a 44.3% chance of making it.

3. At 20 wins, Seton Hall has a 70.1% chance of making the tournament. Unfortunately, they are three wins away from 20. They should win their next two games (vs. DePaul, vs. Georgetown), but winning at Butler on Senior Day will be very tough. At 19 wins, they have only a 35.0% chance of making the field. Seton Hall will likely finish 6th in the conference, which means they would face Creighton in the Big East Tournament. On a neutral court, Creighton would be statistically favored by a few points. Gonna be tough, but Seton Hall has a shot at making the field.

4. Providence (at the moment) is the perfect case of too little, too late. They have a 60.1% chance at a bid with 20 wins. With 21 wins, they have a 86.8% chance at a bid. Unfortunately, they only have a 23.1% chance at 20 wins, and 21 wins is very unlikely. They should beat DePaul at home, but Marquette at home and @ St. John's are basically pick'ems. Should Providence win out, they would be 10-8 in conference, which would likely put them in 4th (they would own the tiebreaker with Xavier). They would probably play Xavier in the Big East Tournament, but they would probably not be favored in the game. Long story short, Providence is on life-support.

If Seton Hall finishes the season 2-1, they're more likely to finish 7th in the conference as they lose tiebreakers to Marquette and Providence. That means, at 19 wins, they'll face DePaul 1st in the Big East tourney. If 20 wins is the magic number, regardless of who they come against, that gives them a pretty good shot. On the other hand, if they need another impressive win, it leaves them trying to avoid a bad loss first and then going for an impressive win the next day on no rest.

[JohnW22]

Crazy question for Xavier, but would winning out the regular season and winning against what would most likely be Providence and Butler then losing to Nova in the Championship givining them a 15 RPI 3 SOS 23-11 record get Xavier a 4-5 Seed? Just thinking maybe everything could go right since nothing has this season

[stever20]

looking at Ken Pom- if Marquette does what they're projected to do- going 1-2 with win over Creighton, losses to Xavier and Providence- they would be 9-9-and in a 3 way tie. 1-3 vs Seton Hall and Providence PC would be 3-1, SH 2-2. So it would be PC 5, SH 6, and Marquette 7.

The thing that's interesting there is would a win for Marquette over DePaul be worth their percentage going up from 53% to 79%? They may need a 2nd win over Butler to seal the deal.

I get what you're saying about Xavier, but you have the x factor(no pun intended) of how they've played since the injury. If they do what you suggest, winning 1 game(vs DePaul)- and losing 1st round- they would have gone 4-7 since the injury with 2 of the wins vs DePaul. I don't think numerically you can account for that.

PC to me has a great shot. If they can win at home vs Marquette and then beat DePaul, they're 9-8 going into that St John's game.

To me- the HUGE game is tomorrow Marquette @ PC The winner of that game IMO will be in really good shape. The loser will be in some trouble, especially IMO if it's Marquette given their remaining schedule. Looking at things, the loser of the game will almost certainly be in 7th place, and in a worthless game with DePaul.

[milksteak]

Here's Team Rankings Selection Sunday projection update for today:

#1 Villanova (3rd overall)...100% chance for NCAA bid, 47% chance for auto-bid
#2 Butler (6th overall)...100% chance for NCAA bid, 18% chance for auto-bid
#5 Creighton (20th overall)...100% chance for NCAA bid, 14% chance for auto-bid
#9 Xavier (33rd overall)...94% chance for NCAA bid, 8% for auto-bid
#10 Marquette (39th overall)...53% chance for NCAA bid, 7% for auto-bid
#12 Seton Hall (50th overall)...46% chance for NCAA bid, 2% chance for auto-bid

Providence: 41% chance for bid, 2% chance for auto-bid
Georgetown: 5% chance for bid, 2% chance for auto-bid
St. John's: 0% chance for bid, 0% chance for auto-bid
DePaul: 0% chance for bid, 0% chance for auto-bid

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... gy/detail/

Let's dig into it a little more for Xavier, Marquette, Seton Hall and Providence...

1. For Xavier, everything is gonna have to go wrong for them to miss the field. If they lose out, they will have 18 wins. With 18 wins, they would have a 23.0% chance of making the field. If they only win one more game (19 wins total), they would still have a 68.6% chance of making the field. They have a 75.5% chance of getting at least 20 wins. With 20 wins, they have a 94.1% chance of making the field. Xavier should be fine, but they still have a little bit of work to do.

2. If Marquette gets two more wins, Team Rankings says they have a 79.4% chance of getting a bid. With 21 wins, they would have a 95.5% chance. KenPom and TeamRankings both predict one more win in the regular season (at home against Creighton). They are expected to finish 5th in conference, which likely puts them against Xavier in the Big East Tournament. Currently, Marquette would probably be about a 1-point statistical favorite against Xavier on a neutral floor. Marquette fans are going to be sweating for the next few weeks, but they are comfortably in the field with two more wins. With one more win, they only have a 44.3% chance of making it.

3. At 20 wins, Seton Hall has a 70.1% chance of making the tournament. Unfortunately, they are three wins away from 20. They should win their next two games (vs. DePaul, vs. Georgetown), but winning at Butler on Senior Day will be very tough. At 19 wins, they have only a 35.0% chance of making the field. Seton Hall will likely finish 6th in the conference, which means they would face Creighton in the Big East Tournament. On a neutral court, Creighton would be statistically favored by a few points. Gonna be tough, but Seton Hall has a shot at making the field.

4. Providence (at the moment) is the perfect case of too little, too late. They have a 60.1% chance at a bid with 20 wins. With 21 wins, they have a 86.8% chance at a bid. Unfortunately, they only have a 23.1% chance at 20 wins, and 21 wins is very unlikely. They should beat DePaul at home, but Marquette at home and @ St. John's are basically pick'ems. Should Providence win out, they would be 10-8 in conference, which would likely put them in 4th (they would own the tiebreaker with Xavier). They would probably play Xavier in the Big East Tournament, but they would probably not be favored in the game. Long story short, Providence is on life-support.

If Seton Hall finishes the season 2-1, they're more likely to finish 7th in the conference as they lose tiebreakers to Marquette and Providence. That means, at 19 wins, they'll face DePaul 1st in the Big East tourney. If 20 wins is the magic number, regardless of who they come against, that gives them a pretty good shot. On the other hand, if they need another impressive win, it leaves them trying to avoid a bad loss first and then going for an impressive win the next day on no rest.

You are correct. They will probably finish 7th and play DePaul.

I only have one concern with this scenario: 2/3 wins would be against #183 DePaul. They would still be cutting it close.

[HoosierPal]

If Seton Hall finishes the season 2-1, they're more likely to finish 7th in the conference as they lose tiebreakers to Marquette and Providence. That means, at 19 wins, they'll face DePaul 1st in the Big East tourney. If 20 wins is the magic number, regardless of who they come against, that gives them a pretty good shot. On the other hand, if they need another impressive win, it leaves them trying to avoid a bad loss first and then going for an impressive win the next day on no rest.

There are 52 teams with 20 or more wins as of today. If 20 wins is the magic number, the tourney will be full by the end of this weekend. All wins aren't equal.

[milksteak]

If Seton Hall finishes the season 2-1, they're more likely to finish 7th in the conference as they lose tiebreakers to Marquette and Providence. That means, at 19 wins, they'll face DePaul 1st in the Big East tourney. If 20 wins is the magic number, regardless of who they come against, that gives them a pretty good shot. On the other hand, if they need another impressive win, it leaves them trying to avoid a bad loss first and then going for an impressive win the next day on no rest.

There are 52 teams with 20 or more wins as of today. If 20 wins is the magic number, the tourney will be full by the end of this weekend. All wins aren't equal.

True. But Seton Hall should finish with a SOS in the Top 40, which will put them near the top of that list.