How many Big East teams will make the NCAA tourney?

[kayako]

To me right now-
5 teams- about a 80% chance
6 teams- about a 10% chance
4 teams- about a 5% chance
7 teams- about a 5% chance

If you stuck a gun to my head and asked how many teams the BE gets.

I am surprised you didn't give 4 teams a token %5 chance
But I think I will:

4 teams - 5% chance (A disastrous scenario caused by St. Johns and Depaul wrecking havoc)
5 teams - 40%
6 teams - 50%
7 teams - 4%
8 teams - 1% (some crazy combination of the committee overrating the Big East like they did Pac12 last year, extremely weak bubble, Nova & Butler giving games away, and an unlikely BET winner)

*edit* you actually did heh

[stever20]

To me right now-
5 teams- about a 80% chance
6 teams- about a 10% chance
4 teams- about a 5% chance
7 teams- about a 5% chance

If you stuck a gun to my head and asked how many teams the BE gets.

I am surprised you didn't give 4 teams a token %5 chance
But I think I will:

4 teams - 5% chance (A disastrous scenario caused by St. Johns and Depaul wrecking havoc)
5 teams - 40%
6 teams - 50%
7 teams - 4%
8 teams - 1% (some crazy combination of the committee overrating the Big East like they did Pac12 last year, extremely weak bubble, Nova & Butler giving games away, and an unlikely BET winner)

Um, I actually did give it a 5% chance. I still think there's too much that has to happen to feel like 6 is more likely than 5.

I mean if you just look at the raw favorites here's what the projected final standings are-
5 Seton Hall 9-9 19-11
6 Providence 8-10 18-13
7 Marquette 8-10 17-13
8 Georgetown 7-11 16-15
9 St John's 7-11 13-18

Providence, Marquette, and Georgetown wouldn't be in at all. Looking- Providence's 2 projected losses are @ Creighton and @ St John's. Marquette's 3 projected losses are @ PC, @ X, and Creighton. Georgetown's projected losses are @ Creighton, @ Seton Hall, and Nova. Of those 8 projected losses, only the PC one @ St John's is a game that you really would think the projection would be wrong. The 2nd best shot would likely be Georgetown @ Seton Hall- but that would hurt Seton Hall quite a bit.

[kayako]

I still think there's too much that has to happen to feel like 6 is more likely than 5.

A lot has happened, so I am curious what your outlook is now. 6 > 7 > 5 seems about right to me.

[stever20]

looking at things-
Seton Hall-
still needs wins @ DePaul on Saturday and then home vs Georgetown (or beat Butler)
Marquette-
needs to win 2/3 vs @ Providence, @ Xavier, and Creighton(with 2/3 on the road)
Providence-
needs to win 2/3 vs Marquette, DePaul, and @ St John's

the loser of the Marquette/Providence game is in real trouble, esp. if it's Marquette.

To me right now it's
6- 50%
5- 25%
7- 25%

Getting 5 wouldn't be that much of a shock- Seton Hall loses to Georgetown in a surprise, Marquette beats Providence but loses to Xavier and Creighton- and that's a pretty easy 5.

And Xavier would be really wise to not lose these next 2, they could get really into a must win @ DePaul. They are looking more and more like 8/9 seed trap situation.

[Bill Marsh]

I still think there's too much that has to happen to feel like 6 is more likely than 5.

A lot has happened, so I am curious what your outlook is now. 6 > 7 > 5 seems about right to me.

I'll say the number is 6. After their wins tonight, Providence and Seton Hall are both looking like tournament teams to me - as long as they take care of business.

[kayako]

I'll say the number is 6. After their wins tonight, Providence and Seton Hall are both looking like tournament teams to me - as long as they take care of business.

You know Marquette fans will feel neglected.

[Edrick]

6: 60%
5: 20%
7: 15%
4: <>5%

[gofriars08]

I'm going with 6. I think PC needs to win out from here and then get a win in the BET; going 20-13 puts them probaby either among the last teams in or the first teams out. Does not leave room for error.

I think Marquette can afford one loss down the stretch, but their schedule is tough - @ PC, @ Xavier, vs Creighton is about as hard as it gets to end the conference schedule.

After that win last night, Seton Hall is in the dance unless they push themselves out. They've got two pretty easy games with DePaul / Georgetown plus @ Butler. 2-1 in that stretch and I think they're in.

The key will be these 3 teams not shooting themselves in the foot with a bad loss in their final 3 games. MQ doesn't have any of those, but PC plays DePaul & St. John's and SHU plays GTown and DePaul. To get 6, we need the Friars and Pirates to go 4-0 in that stretch.

[Bill Marsh]

I'm going with 6. I think PC needs to win out from here and then get a win in the BET; going 20-13 puts them probaby either among the last teams in or the first teams out. Does not leave room for error.

I think Marquette can afford one loss down the stretch, but their schedule is tough - @ PC, @ Xavier, vs Creighton is about as hard as it gets to end the conference schedule.

After that win last night, Seton Hall is in the dance unless they push themselves out. They've got two pretty easy games with DePaul / Georgetown plus @ Butler. 2-1 in that stretch and I think they're in.

The key will be these 3 teams not shooting themselves in the foot with a bad loss in their final 3 games. MQ doesn't have any of those, but PC plays DePaul & St. John's and SHU plays GTown and DePaul. To get 6, we need the Friars and Pirates to go 4-0 in that stretch.

One of the things that helps the Friars is that they're looking like a 5-seed in the BE tournament at this point - even with a possible loss to St John's. That would mean a matchup with the 4-seed, a very competitive game that they are completely capabke of winning - AND a resume booster.

[brewcity77]

I think 9-9 will be enough to get in for Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. The bubble is terrible this year and they are all trending in the right direction. There will be high-major teams with losing records making the tourney.

I think the conference tournament is virtually meaningless. People always act like those games matter, but I can't remember anyone playing their way in or out in recent years. If you're not part of their bracket on Tuesday, nothing you do after will change that unless you win the automatic bid.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if we got one of the above three in with 8-10 in league play. Seton Hall would probably be the most likely as they would still have 18 wins and no really bad losses. That said, I expect the Hall in at 9-9, with Marquette at 10-8 and Providence at 9-9.