How many Big East teams will make the NCAA tourney?

[kayako]

The way things are shaping up, I think there's a real chance of only 9 conferences getting multi-bids. WCC, A10, and AAC probably gets 7 or 8 bids, but may only end up with 6 barring a big tournament upset. Things can change on a dime, but the trend is good for middling power conference bubble teams, like Seton Hall and Marquette. Hell, I still think Gtown has a shot if they can put some wins together.

[stever20]

The way things are shaping up, I think there's a real chance of only 9 conferences getting multi-bids. WCC, A10, and AAC probably gets 7 or 8 bids, but may only end up with 6 barring a big tournament upset. Things can change on a dime, but the trend is good for middling power conference bubble teams, like Seton Hall and Marquette. Hell, I still think Gtown has a shot if they can put some wins together.

The thing with all the Big East teams- if they get the wins, they're in. If they don't, they're out. It's really that simple.

[kayako]

The way things are shaping up, I think there's a real chance of only 9 conferences getting multi-bids. WCC, A10, and AAC probably gets 7 or 8 bids, but may only end up with 6 barring a big tournament upset. Things can change on a dime, but the trend is good for middling power conference bubble teams, like Seton Hall and Marquette. Hell, I still think Gtown has a shot if they can put some wins together.

The thing with all the Big East teams- if they get the wins, they're in. If they don't, they're out. It's really that simple.

That's the case with most power conference teams with still opportunities to add to their resume. But the last few spots always seem to be up for grabs between teams that don't get those wins. I think it's likely that Seton Hall and Marquette continue this lateral movement and sweat it out until the end. We'd all prefer to have more locks, but one positive aspect to this is it creates added juice to the conference tournament. Even 8v9 and 7v10 games may be meaningful.

[herodotus]

The five bubble teams are 5-22 against the four powerhouse teams. They have zero wins against Villanova, and Xavier, and were fortunate to get two wins over Creighton immediately after Watson's injury. In order for one or two of these teams to make it, they will either have to step up, and win a game or two against the top 4, or, separate themselves by dominating the remaining games against the other bubble teams. If they continue to knock each other off, and don't get any upset vs the top 4, this may end up a four bid league, although all four would then have good seeds. This of course brings up the question of whether it's better to have the top 4 wipe out the bubble teams, knocking them out, but assuring that none of the top 4 ends up lower than a 6 seed, which would give them all a fair chance to reach the Sweet 16; or is it better to get 6 teams in, even though this might result in a couple of the top 4 taking losses that would knock their seed down to where they would have a difficult time escaping the first weekend. There are no guarantees of course, but the four team scenario gives you a decent chance to place all four in the Sweet 16, while the 6 team model makes that more difficult, and depending on the damage the extra two teams did to the top 4 while earning their bids, might result in a scenario where only two, or maybe only Villanova, advances to the Sweet 16.

[gosports1]

I'm holding out hope that PC gets NIT bid. don't think NCAA is in the cards (barring some miraculous run at the BE tourney)
My gut says PC will lose to Xavier take one from Marquette/Creighton beat DePaul and play potential spoiler with a win @ St Johns. that should be enough for NIT.

[kayako]

The five bubble teams are 5-22 against the four powerhouse teams. They have zero wins against Villanova, and Xavier, and were fortunate to get two wins over Creighton immediately after Watson's injury. In order for one or two of these teams to make it, they will either have to step up, and win a game or two against the top 4, or, separate themselves by dominating the remaining games against the other bubble teams. If they continue to knock each other off, and don't get any upset vs the top 4, this may end up a four bid league, although all four would then have good seeds. This of course brings up the question of whether it's better to have the top 4 wipe out the bubble teams, knocking them out, but assuring that none of the top 4 ends up lower than a 6 seed, which would give them all a fair chance to reach the Sweet 16; or is it better to get 6 teams in, even though this might result in a couple of the top 4 taking losses that would knock their seed down to where they would have a difficult time escaping the first weekend. There are no guarantees of course, but the four team scenario gives you a decent chance to place all four in the Sweet 16, while the 6 team model makes that more difficult, and depending on the damage the extra two teams did to the top 4 while earning their bids, might result in a scenario where only two, or maybe only Villanova, advances to the Sweet 16.

Marquette beat Villanova.

I just made a similar post in another thread, but looking at the committee's top 16, St. Mary's may have to win their conference tournament to receive a bid. Mid-major might be dead this season.

[Bill Marsh]

I'm holding out hope that PC gets NIT bid. don't think NCAA is in the cards (barring some miraculous run at the BE tourney)
My gut says PC will lose to Xavier take one from Marquette/Creighton beat DePaul and play potential spoiler with a win @ St Johns. that should be enough for NIT.

With Bluiett hobbled and PC having a home court advantage, my gut sees a PC win over Xavier, but I don't see them beating St John's in NYC - not as long as the Johnies keep playing as well as they have been. I agree that they'll likely get a win over Marquette.

I predict their conference season ending in a 4-way tie for 5th place with Seton Hall, St John's, and Marquette with PC getting a 6-seed and facing Butler in The Garden. From the group in the 4-way tie, I think The Hall has the best shot at a tournament bid. But it should be a close call.

Back in the real world, there's a lot of hoops still to be played.

[stever20]

The five bubble teams are 5-22 against the four powerhouse teams. They have zero wins against Villanova, and Xavier, and were fortunate to get two wins over Creighton immediately after Watson's injury. In order for one or two of these teams to make it, they will either have to step up, and win a game or two against the top 4, or, separate themselves by dominating the remaining games against the other bubble teams. If they continue to knock each other off, and don't get any upset vs the top 4, this may end up a four bid league, although all four would then have good seeds. This of course brings up the question of whether it's better to have the top 4 wipe out the bubble teams, knocking them out, but assuring that none of the top 4 ends up lower than a 6 seed, which would give them all a fair chance to reach the Sweet 16; or is it better to get 6 teams in, even though this might result in a couple of the top 4 taking losses that would knock their seed down to where they would have a difficult time escaping the first weekend. There are no guarantees of course, but the four team scenario gives you a decent chance to place all four in the Sweet 16, while the 6 team model makes that more difficult, and depending on the damage the extra two teams did to the top 4 while earning their bids, might result in a scenario where only two, or maybe only Villanova, advances to the Sweet 16.

Marquette beat Villanova.

I just made a similar post in another thread, but looking at the committee's top 16, St. Mary's may have to win their conference tournament to receive a bid. Mid-major might be dead this season.

St Mary's is about as safe as you can be. I think you are really crazy if you think there's any chance at all whatsoever a team that would have a 20ish RPI and is in the top 20 in KP would be out. Lets be realistic about it.

[stever20]

I'm holding out hope that PC gets NIT bid. don't think NCAA is in the cards (barring some miraculous run at the BE tourney)
My gut says PC will lose to Xavier take one from Marquette/Creighton beat DePaul and play potential spoiler with a win @ St Johns. that should be enough for NIT.

With Bluiett hobbled and PC having a home court advantage, my gut sees a PC win over Xavier, but I don't see them beating St John's in NYC - not as long as the Johnies keep playing as well as they have been. I agree that they'll likely get a win over Marquette.

I predict their conference season ending in a 4-way tie for 5th place with Seton Hall, St John's, and Marquette with PC getting a 6-seed and facing Butler in The Garden. From the group in the 4-way tie, I think The Hall has the best shot at a tournament bid. But it should be a close call.

Back in the real world, there's a lot of hoops still to be played.

If it's a 4 way tie at 8-10, going to be really hard for any of them to make it.
St John's would be 14-17 so out. 4-2 vs tied teams 5 seed
Providence would have a 68 RPI 3-3 vs tied teams 6 seed
Seton Hall would have a 52 RPI. 3-3 vs tied teams 7 seed
Marquette would have a 87 RPI 2-4 vs tied teams. Would be 8 seed.

it could even get to be a 5 way tie with Georgetown in there as well. Wouldn't take much at all.

[Devil's Advocate]

The five bubble teams are 5-22 against the four powerhouse teams. They have zero wins against Villanova, and Xavier, and were fortunate to get two wins over Creighton immediately after Watson's injury. In order for one or two of these teams to make it, they will either have to step up, and win a game or two against the top 4, or, separate themselves by dominating the remaining games against the other bubble teams. If they continue to knock each other off, and don't get any upset vs the top 4, this may end up a four bid league, although all four would then have good seeds. This of course brings up the question of whether it's better to have the top 4 wipe out the bubble teams, knocking them out, but assuring that none of the top 4 ends up lower than a 6 seed, which would give them all a fair chance to reach the Sweet 16; or is it better to get 6 teams in, even though this might result in a couple of the top 4 taking losses that would knock their seed down to where they would have a difficult time escaping the first weekend. There are no guarantees of course, but the four team scenario gives you a decent chance to place all four in the Sweet 16, while the 6 team model makes that more difficult, and depending on the damage the extra two teams did to the top 4 while earning their bids, might result in a scenario where only two, or maybe only Villanova, advances to the Sweet 16.

Totally agree with the premise of this post, just wondering how many points Marquette and Georgetown needed to win by in those two games in order for them not to be considered lucky. Trailing by 19 on their home court and 20+ in DC, those really got away from Creighton.