(2) Tuesday BE Games - 01/31/2017...

[cu blujs]

Georgetown will be facing a different team in Omaha than the one it beat in DC.

[Bill Marsh]

Georgetown will be facing a different team in Omaha than the one it beat in DC.

Good point. No one expects that Georgetown could beat them by 20 again.

[stever20]

looking at Ken Pom-
the 4 they're favorites in-
Sat vs Seton Hall 64%
2/11 vs Marquette 51%
2/22 vs DePaul 89%
2/25 @ St John's 54%
so 2 pretty good favorite games but then 2 pick'em type of games... projected wins in those 4 games- 2.58

the 4 they're underdogs in-
2/7 @ Nova 9%
2/19 @ Creighton 18%
2/28 @ Seton Hall 38%
3/4 Villanova 26%
no real pick'em type of games. Projected wins in those 4 games- .91

If we had just held on to beat Maryland, things would be SO much different right now.

All this shows that Saturday is pretty much a must win situation for Georgetown.

[billyjack]

My hunch is that the committee will be willing to give Georgetown a break, sort of like Syracuse last year. They already have 3 excellent wins, plus 2 other respectable OOC wins... these wins should offset the hiccup vs Arkansas State (which isn't even that bad a team).

Especially if Oregon, UConn and Syracuse continue winning, the Hoyas could almost go on cruise control the rest of the way and still get in. Again, just my hunch. Saturday is not a must-win, with a ton of hoops still remaining.

[stever20]

My hunch is that the committee will be willing to give Georgetown a break, sort of like Syracuse last year. They already have 3 excellent wins, plus 2 other respectable OOC wins... these wins should offset the hiccup vs Arkansas State (which isn't even that bad a team).

Especially if Oregon, UConn and Syracuse continue winning, the Hoyas could almost go on cruise control the rest of the way and still get in. Again, just my hunch. Saturday is not a must-win, with a ton of hoops still remaining.

Georgetown can't go on cruise control. You have to have a decent enough record to make the tourney. 17-14 regular season just won't cut it. You bring up Syracuse last year. They were 19-13. I'm not even saying we need to get to 19 wins, just 18 wins. So need to go 5-3- with 3 tough road games left, a tricky road game at St John's, and tough home games with Seton Hall, Marquette, and Nova. Need to go 4-3 in those 7 games(and beat DePaul at home). So a loss to Seton Hall, and all of a sudden, you need 4-2 in those other 6, with 2 games with Nova included in that 6. So either need to beat Nova once, or win out vs St John's, Seton Hall, Marquette, and Creighton(with 3 of those on the road). So while technically the Hoya's aren't dead if they lose to Seton Hall, it makes it exponentially harder. It's pretty darn close to a must win.

Georgetown has the resume in spades. But just have to get enough wins to really get considered. If they're 16-15 or 17-14, won't be seriously considered. 18-13 though and they're close to a lock. They aren't your typical bubble team.

[ivet]

My hunch is that the committee will be willing to give Georgetown a break, sort of like Syracuse last year. They already have 3 excellent wins, plus 2 other respectable OOC wins... these wins should offset the hiccup vs Arkansas State (which isn't even that bad a team).

Especially if Oregon, UConn and Syracuse continue winning, the Hoyas could almost go on cruise control the rest of the way and still get in. Again, just my hunch. Saturday is not a must-win, with a ton of hoops still remaining.

As much as I'd love to see Georgetown get in, I don't really want them to get in and lose in the first round.

[Bill Marsh]

looking at Ken Pom-
the 4 they're favorites in-
Sat vs Seton Hall 64%
2/11 vs Marquette 51%
2/22 vs DePaul 89%
2/25 @ St John's 54%
so 2 pretty good favorite games but then 2 pick'em type of games... projected wins in those 4 games- 2.58

the 4 they're underdogs in-
2/7 @ Nova 9%
2/19 @ Creighton 18%
2/28 @ Seton Hall 38%
3/4 Villanova 26%
no real pick'em type of games. Projected wins in those 4 games- .91

If we had just held on to beat Maryland, things would be SO much different right now.

All this shows that Saturday is pretty much a must win situation for Georgetown.

Why do I feel like I'm back in Statistics 101 again? Statistics can be so misleading. That 18% in the Creighton game is based almost entirely on a record that was compiled with the national assists leader in their lineup. Without him, Georgetown beat them by 20.

The point is that all Georgetown has to do is hold serve in the 4 games in which they're favored - even if those are expected to be close games - and pull an upset in one other, a couple of which are expected to be close games. It's not like they don't have the talent to do just that.

It may come as a surprise to you, but these are not computer games. They're played on basketball courts by real student athletes who are competing for wins.

[stever20]

looking at Ken Pom-
the 4 they're favorites in-
Sat vs Seton Hall 64%
2/11 vs Marquette 51%
2/22 vs DePaul 89%
2/25 @ St John's 54%
so 2 pretty good favorite games but then 2 pick'em type of games... projected wins in those 4 games- 2.58

the 4 they're underdogs in-
2/7 @ Nova 9%
2/19 @ Creighton 18%
2/28 @ Seton Hall 38%
3/4 Villanova 26%
no real pick'em type of games. Projected wins in those 4 games- .91

If we had just held on to beat Maryland, things would be SO much different right now.

All this shows that Saturday is pretty much a must win situation for Georgetown.

Why do I feel like I'm back in Statistics 101 again? Statistics can be so misleading. That 18% in the Creighton game is based almost entirely on a record that was compiled with the national assists leader in their lineup. Without him, Georgetown beat them by 20.

The point is that all Georgetown has to do is hold serve in the 4 games in which they're favored - even if those are expected to be close games - and pull an upset in one other, a couple of which are expected to be close games. It's not like they don't have the talent to do just that.

It may come as a surprise to you, but these are not computer games. They're played on basketball courts by real student athletes who are competing for wins.

Georgetown has 1 game solid favorites in, 5 pick'em type of games, and then the 2 Nova games. If they don't beat Nova, they have to go 4-1 in the 5 pick'em games. Of those 5 pick'em games, 3 are road games. And 3 are Seton Hall and Marquette, teams fighting for a tourney spot as well...

[Bill Marsh]

looking at Ken Pom-
the 4 they're favorites in-
Sat vs Seton Hall 64%
2/11 vs Marquette 51%
2/22 vs DePaul 89%
2/25 @ St John's 54%
so 2 pretty good favorite games but then 2 pick'em type of games... projected wins in those 4 games- 2.58

the 4 they're underdogs in-
2/7 @ Nova 9%
2/19 @ Creighton 18%
2/28 @ Seton Hall 38%
3/4 Villanova 26%
no real pick'em type of games. Projected wins in those 4 games- .91

If we had just held on to beat Maryland, things would be SO much different right now.

All this shows that Saturday is pretty much a must win situation for Georgetown.

Why do I feel like I'm back in Statistics 101 again? Statistics can be so misleading. That 18% in the Creighton game is based almost entirely on a record that was compiled with the national assists leader in their lineup. Without him, Georgetown beat them by 20.

The point is that all Georgetown has to do is hold serve in the 4 games in which they're favored - even if those are expected to be close games - and pull an upset in one other, a couple of which are expected to be close games. It's not like they don't have the talent to do just that.

It may come as a surprise to you, but these are not computer games. They're played on basketball courts by real student athletes who are competing for wins.

Georgetown has 1 game solid favorites in, 5 pick'em type of games, and then the 2 Nova games. If they don't beat Nova, they have to go 4-1 in the 5 pick'em games. Of those 5 pick'em games, 3 are road games. And 3 are Seton Hall and Marquette, teams fighting for a tourney spot as well...

So?

All you're really saying is that it's time for Georgetown to step up. That's what I'm saying too.

BTW, don't dismiss the Nova games so quickly. They're not unbeatable. Especially in DC. Nova should be favored by 6-8 points at Georgetown. That's certainly a difference that can be overcome.

[stever20]

So?

All you're really saying is that it's time for Georgetown to step up. That's what I'm saying too.

Yep. Definitely can't put it on cruise control by any means right now.