Myles Davis Is Back - - UPDATE 01/20 ---> Leaving Team - -

[JohnW22]

Any concern from Xavier fans that if you lose to Butler and Creighton, that you are on the bubble? Or even the wrong side of the bubble? Looking at your resume, I don't see any wins over sure fire NCAA tournament teams yet. We have talked about the upside of the musketeers so much on this board, but the actual resume is pretty thin if you don't get wins over the top of the BE.

Is this a joke? I mean if it does happen I'll be worried but until then no.

So you're agreeing that if you lose to Butler and Creighton, you would be concerned. That was the whole point.

Yea but this seems like a Stever thing with the if's in the negative direction

[JohnW22]

xavier has had the benefit of the doubt since the first preseason polls came out that it was a top 25 team. That is the real reason Xavier will never approach the bubble this year, assuming the train stays on the track. You start losing games consistently against the bottom half of the league, then its maybe time to be concerned. If you get to the 20-22 win range, I really don't think there's any danger of them missing out.

Also second the thoughts about the quality of local Jays coverage. Its unfortunate to hear Gumby's opinion on the Banter guys because they are kind people, but anyone expecting more than middling quality reporting out of the Herald or the bigger radio station is setting the bar too high.

Xavier is 13-3. With all 3 losses on the road and 2 to top 3 teams. What indicates losses to the bottom half of the league? Man people overreact when things go wrong.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Any concern from Xavier fans that if you lose to Butler and Creighton, that you are on the bubble? Or even the wrong side of the bubble? Looking at your resume, I don't see any wins over sure fire NCAA tournament teams yet. We have talked about the upside of the musketeers so much on this board, but the actual resume is pretty thin if you don't get wins over the top of the BE.

Xavier fans have nothing to worry about. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

RPI Forecast – Xavier

Through games of Jan. 11, 2017 (i.e., after loss to Villanova.)

Expected RPI: 19.0
Current RPI: 14
Expected SOS: 14
Current SOS: 24
Current Record: 13-3
Expected Record: 22-9 ==> Projected future games: 9 wins, 6 losses
Current Conf Record: 3-1
Expected Conf Record: 12-6

Current OOC Record: 10-2
Expected OOC Record: 10-3
Expected OOC RPI: 12
Expected OOC SOS: 20

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record Expected RPI Probability

27-4 1.8 0.20%
26-5 3.5 1.26%
25-6 5.7 4.90%
24-7 9.0 11.60%
23-8 13.4 18.68%
22-9 17.9 21.99%
21-10 22.3 19.55%
20-11 27.2 13.17%
19-12 33.4 5.82%
18-13 41.8 2.21%
17-14 53.2 0.55%
16-15 68.0 0.04%
15-16 75.0 0.01%
14-17 89.0

Date Opponent (Expected RPI) Conf Location Score Outcome Prob(W) Spread

1-14 Butler (11.7) BE A 0-0 34% -4.5
1-16 Creighton (15.0) BE H 0-0 54% 1.2
1-22 Georgetown (83.4) BE H 0-0 74% 7.4
1-26 Cincinnati (15.2) Amer A 0-0 29% -6.4
1-29 St. John's (147.9) BE A 0-0 72% 6.5
2-1 Seton Hall (57.0) BE H 0-0 75% 7.6
2-4 Creighton (15.0) BE A 0-0 33% -5.1
2-8 DePaul (220.0) BE H 0-0 95% 18.4
2-11 Villanova (3.4) BE H 0-0 39% -3.0
2-15 Providence (101.8) BE A 0-0 66% 4.6
2-18 Marquette (62.1) BE A 0-0 48% -0.7
2-22 Seton Hall (57.0) BE A 0-0 54% 1.2
2-26 Butler (11.7) BE H 0-0 56% 1.8
3-1 Marquette (62.1) BE H 0-0 69% 5.7
3-4 DePaul (220.0) BE A 0-0 86% 12.0

As stated above, Xavier is projected to lose 6 more games: @ Cincinnati and 5 more conference losses en route to a 22-9 (12-6) record and an expected RPI Ranking of # 19 or 18. Four of the projected conference losses are flagged in red above, plus one more unidentified conference loss.

If Xavier fares worse than projected and finishes with two more unprojected losses, the Musketeers will finish with a 20-11 (10-8) record and an expected RPI Ranking of # 27.

If Xavier fares far worse than projected and finishes with three more unprojected losses, the Musketeers will finish with a 19-12 (9-9) record and an expected RPI Ranking of # 33.

As long as Xavier does not finish withfour more unprojected losses, the Musketeers should be a lock for a # 9 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament.

[scoscox]

Obviously I'd be concerned, but I don't think it would put us on the wrong side of the bubble by any stretch.

[GumbyDamnit!]

xavier has had the benefit of the doubt since the first preseason polls came out that it was a top 25 team. That is the real reason Xavier will never approach the bubble this year, assuming the train stays on the track. You start losing games consistently against the bottom half of the league, then its maybe time to be concerned. If you get to the 20-22 win range, I really don't think there's any danger of them missing out.

Also second the thoughts about the quality of local Jays coverage. Its unfortunate to hear Gumby's opinion on the Banter guys because they are kind people, but anyone expecting more than middling quality reporting out of the Herald or the bigger radio station is setting the bar too high.

That wasn't me. Westbrook is the troublemaker from the Nova fan base.

[stever20]

Yea but this seems like a Stever thing with the if's in the negative direction

stever thinks this is a joke.

Xavier is 13-3 right now. If they get to 19 wins, even losing to Cincy(barf I know)- their RPI would be 33.4. With the #20 OOC SOS and #14 projected overall SOS. That's such an easy in right now it's not funny.

To give you an idea about it- right now RPI forecast says that they have a 2.82% chance of NOT finishing with 19 wins. They would practically have to implode for Xavier to miss right now. And even with that, they would still have a chance!

[Omaha1]

From Matt Norlander-

Xavier's conceivably No. 4 in the league, but we can now start to pick apart this team's resume and ask: What have the Musketeers done, and what will they do to show us they're worthy not just of being ranked, but of at-large consideration?

[JohnW22]

From Matt Norlander-

Xavier's conceivably No. 4 in the league, but we can now start to pick apart this team's resume and ask: What have the Musketeers done, and what will they do to show us they're worthy not just of being ranked, but of at-large consideration?

Look at Xavier's 2015 resume. They got a 6 seed that year what have they done up to this point that year. Your idea of Xavier being a bubble team is pretty stupid. I hope we kill Creighton to take away any hope you have at Xavier being on the bubble. I mean what has Creighton really done away from home at this point? They beat Butler and Wisconsin at home and blew a game to Nova at home. Xavier still has their 3 best win opportunities at home which is why I'm confused about you thinking Xavier should be worried. If Xavier's losses to Butler and Nova were at home then it be a different story, Creighton already blew one of their big opportunities at home, Xavier hasn't.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

From Matt Norlander-

Xavier's conceivably No. 4 in the league, but we can now start to pick apart this team's resume and ask: What have the Musketeers done, and what will they do to show us they're worthy not just of being ranked, but of at-large consideration?

F Matt Norlander.

RPI Forecast - Teams Ranked # 1 to # 351 Through games of Friday, January 13, 2017.

1 - Villanova
3- Baylor
9 - Butler
16 - Creighton
19 - Xavier

January 4 , 2017: Butler 66, Villanvona 58 (6-point Bulldogs win at Hinkle Fieldhouse)

January 14, 2017: Butler 83, Xavier 78 (5-point Bulldogs win at Hinkle Fieldhouse)

RPI Forecast projected a Xavier loss at Butler, and were correct in this instance.

Butler and Baylor are both Top 10 teams, and losing to them on their homecourts is no cause for concern.

[Omaha1]

A national college basketball writer just stated almost exactly what I said on this board a couple of days ago and you continue to attack me? OK whatever.