Non-Big East Conference Realignment Thread v. 2017

[marquette]

When the TV deal was made, I remember reading about the $500M figure going up if the league expanded, in order to match what each school received from Fox. Up to 12 teams. Is that option no longer on the table? I don't even know if there's anything to be gained from waiting for the next round of football realignments. Like, what's the point of waiting for Wake Forest or TCU to get the ax?

Given the fact that the Big 12 had that clause in their contract, the fact that it was reported at the time of the split, and that at that time it was in Fox's best interest to get as much content for FS1 as possible. As has been shown with the recent Big 12 buyout, Fox may not be as enthusiastic about paying for a little bit of new inventory anymore. Even so, if the clause was in the contract then it can't be unilaterally axed. Generally an alteration in a contract requires additional consideration from the party wanting the change and Fox would probably have to give the Big East some kind of one-time payoff to get it removed. My guess is it would be a nominal fee, in the interest of creating good will with Fox. Right now there is no interest in expansion so no conversations on the subject are likely happening with Fox.


My general thoughts on expansion right now are that we are doing extremely well as a conference. As long as there is at least one other power conference at 10 teams it doesn't hurt our perception so we really are in an ideal wait-and-see position. My guess is that we are currently in year 4 of a 12 year audition and if a couple of schools can make it so the next tv contract is more valuable with them, then we will see expansion at that time.

[Bill Marsh]

When the TV deal was made, I remember reading about the $500M figure going up if the league expanded, in order to match what each school received from Fox. Up to 12 teams. Is that option no longer on the table? I don't even know if there's anything to be gained from waiting for the next round of football realignments. Like, what's the point of waiting for Wake Forest or TCU to get the ax?

Given the fact that the Big 12 had that clause in their contract, the fact that it was reported at the time of the split, and that at that time it was in Fox's best interest to get as much content for FS1 as possible. As has been shown with the recent Big 12 buyout, Fox may not be as enthusiastic about paying for a little bit of new inventory anymore. Even so, if the clause was in the contract then it can't be unilaterally axed. Generally an alteration in a contract requires additional consideration from the party wanting the change and Fox would probably have to give the Big East some kind of one-time payoff to get it removed. My guess is it would be a nominal fee, in the interest of creating good will with Fox. Right now there is no interest in expansion so no conversations on the subject are likely happening with Fox.


My general thoughts on expansion right now are that we are doing extremely well as a conference. As long as there is at least one other power conference at 10 teams it doesn't hurt our percaeption so we really are in an ideal wait-and-see position. My guess is that we are currently in year 4 of a 12 year audition and if a couple of schools can make it so the next tv contract is more valuable with them, then we will see expansion at that time.

Big difference between the dollars involved in the Big 12 contract and the BE. Bad comparison.

Fox would only be interested in paying more toward the BE deal only if they thought their investment would improve their return. Obviously.

[Bill Marsh]

The only public school with a nonzero chance of admittance is UConn and that's only because their football program is an albatross and it makes some sense they'll eventually rid themselves of it.

Discussing the merits of VCU has no more pertinence than discussing any random school on the map. They just do not meet the prerequisites.

The "prerequisites" are each person's set of assumptions. And no one knows if they will change.

No, the prerequisites are pretty clear based upon the actions of the C7 university presidents when they selected the 3 teams to add. And there is literally zero reason to believe that they will change in the near future.

That's an assumption.

[NJRedman]

When the TV deal was made, I remember reading about the $500M figure going up if the league expanded, in order to match what each school received from Fox. Up to 12 teams. Is that option no longer on the table? I don't even know if there's anything to be gained from waiting for the next round of football realignments. Like, what's the point of waiting for Wake Forest or TCU to get the ax?

Given the fact that the Big 12 had that clause in their contract, the fact that it was reported at the time of the split, and that at that time it was in Fox's best interest to get as much content for FS1 as possible. As has been shown with the recent Big 12 buyout, Fox may not be as enthusiastic about paying for a little bit of new inventory anymore. Even so, if the clause was in the contract then it can't be unilaterally axed. Generally an alteration in a contract requires additional consideration from the party wanting the change and Fox would probably have to give the Big East some kind of one-time payoff to get it removed. My guess is it would be a nominal fee, in the interest of creating good will with Fox. Right now there is no interest in expansion so no conversations on the subject are likely happening with Fox.


My general thoughts on expansion right now are that we are doing extremely well as a conference. As long as there is at least one other power conference at 10 teams it doesn't hurt our perception so we really are in an ideal wait-and-see position. My guess is that we are currently in year 4 of a 12 year audition and if a couple of schools can make it so the next tv contract is more valuable with them, then we will see expansion at that time.

Actually reports were that Fox was okay with the Big XII expanding but ESPN was against it because they would be paying out the nose for product they already controlled for peanuts.

[milwaukeejedi1]

When the TV deal was made, I remember reading about the $500M figure going up if the league expanded, in order to match what each school received from Fox. Up to 12 teams. Is that option no longer on the table? I don't even know if there's anything to be gained from waiting for the next round of football realignments. Like, what's the point of waiting for Wake Forest or TCU to get the ax?

The contract w/ Fox: payment increases to $600 mil if 2 schools are added...

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/12/sport ... ng-up.html

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

UD has more fans than X simply because it has a bigger enrolment?

Yes. We did this already:

Dayton. We know how much Xavier hates them, which makes for a terrific rivalry game right off the bat, even if X normally wins the game. They'll also bring plenty of people to the BET, and while it's not a big market they're in, they do dominate it.

And by a big margin, with Wright State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Xavier and all getting very small slices of the Dayton College Basketball TV Market pie: Dayton Moves up to Sixth Among Top College Basketball TV Markets – March 9, 2016

According to research analyzed by ESPN, Dayton's 1.7 market share was only behind Louisville (4.8), Raleigh-Durham (2.7), Kansas City (2.5), Greensboro-High Point (2.5), and Cincinnati (1.8).

ESPN has compiled the television data for 14 years and Dayton has always been one of the top 14 markets. The Miami Valley [Dayton metro area] has been in the top 10 for six straight years and seven of the last nine.

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Cincinnati obviously is much bigger than Dayton. Who knows what casual fan support looks like, but I have to believe that Xavier is better positioned in this regard than UD.

The numbers strongly suggest otherwise:

Enrolment

65,000 – Ohio State University
44,000 - University of Cincinnati
38,000 – Ohio University
31,000 - University of Kentucky
24,000 – Miami (OH) University
22,000 – University of Louisville
18,000 – Wright State University
11,000 - University of Dayton
6,700 – Xavier University

The prosperous Cincinnati metro area attracts most of its white-collar workforce from the nearby universities listed above. It is quite reasonable to assume that most of Cincinnati’s blue-collar workforce comes from the same catchment area. Given that The University of Cincinnati has about 7 times as many students (and alumni) than Xavier, it is highly likely that Xavier fans constitute more than a quarter of the Cincinnati College Basketball TV Market.

The exact opposite is the case with Dayton. The not-so-prosperous Dayton metro area attracts most of its white-collar workforce from UD and Wright State, as employment opportunities are not nearly as plentiful as in Cincinnati, and Dayton is a far less attractive city than Cincinnati on many levels. Wright State is a commuter school with no college basketball tradition, and its student body and alumni are mostly locals who grew up as Dayton Flyers basketball fans, but couldn’t afford UD’s tuition. They’re still Dayton Flyers basketball fans who attend UD’s games in their thousands. Ditto for Dayton’s blue-collar locals. It would not be unreasonable to assume that Dayton Flyers basketball fans constitute more than 90% of the Dayton College Basketball TV Market.

Outside of Southwest Ohio, UD has far more alumni than Xavier, and on a percentage basis, UD’s alumni are no less likely to be college basketball fans than Xavier’s alumni. The loyalty and support of the Dayton Flyers’ basketball fanbase is well-documented, and is the primary reason that the NCAA has always chosen Dayton to host their tournament’s first-round play-in games.

[paulxu]

Mudster, we've been down this road.

1.7 share of a smaller market means a lot less viewers.
Passionate basketball watchers in Dayton (lack of other leisure activities?), but you don't know for sure who they're watching.
Could be the BE.

[Bill Marsh]

Mudster, we've been down this road.

1.7 share of a smaller market means a lot less viewers.
Passionate basketball watchers in Dayton (lack of other leisure activities?), but you don't know for sure who they're watching.
Could be the BE.

I don't get the identification of Dayton exclusively as UD's "market". They are not a local public commuter school. They are a private school which draws its students regionally and whose alumni are distributed regionally. Their TV market is bigger than just the city of Dayton and its surrounding communities.

[Xudash]

Mudster, we've been down this road.

1.7 share of a smaller market means a lot less viewers.
Passionate basketball watchers in Dayton (lack of other leisure activities?), but you don't know for sure who they're watching.
Could be the BE.

So, by way of important perspective and recap, UD was never considered for inclusion in the Big East 4 years ago. Take it or leave it, but I'd say its chances and case for being considered for expansion have seriously diminished over time since then. The first reason for that being that the Big East leadership has no interest in expanding. The second reason for that is Xavier. Frankly, I suspect it would be the same - a block out - if the situation were reversed. But the situation isn't reversed. Right or wrong, there is perceived institutional advantage at play here. Would Villanova go all "open-arms" and insist that St. Joe's be added to the Big East. Um, no. Same general dynamic is at play here.

BTW, when it comes to UD and its general place in the pecking order of things, while channel surfing one evening around the hoops dial, I caught an ESPN halftime show where they were discussing mid majors. The general theme was once again about which schools could be considered high majors which otherwise participate in mid major conferences. As you would guess, Wichita St. and Gonzaga were mentioned. Then the announcers took a shot at mid majors that could make it to the higher tier. They rattled off names like St. Mary's, Valporaiso, and URI. UD was never mentioned during this little discussion. Anecdotal, but telling. Not even a whiff of a thought about them.

Muddled, I suggest you drop it, because you type too much, hurt your own case, and generally make UD look pretty stupid around here. There is no way to know precisely which school has the most fans. What we do know is that Xavier's basketball program is much more highly regarded by every important metric than UD's program. And, either way, Xavier isn't hurting in the fan support category by a long shot.

What we also know is that UD is stuck in Dayton. Dayton's television market is worthless, and it certainly isn't attractive to the Big East. Dayton's television coverage is terrible. Dayton's basketball schedule is almost laughable. If people are tuning into basketball games in Dayton, OH, they're probably watching BE games or B1G games or ACC games as much as they're tuning in with rabbit ears to watch UD play one of its crap games.

Muddy, with your last post in particular, you really made the City of Dayton look pretty bad. I'd consider giving it a rest, especially since - you know - you've been banned from two boards already and that you're fussing here as a "guest."

[butlerguy03]

Didn't know where to put this, but I thought it was funny (via UniWatch Twitter):