Non-Big East Conference Realignment Thread v. 2017

[cu blujs]

Only six pages so far? This thread is going to have to pick up some steam if its going to reach the levels of the Realignment 2016 version.

[DudeAnon]

lets look at the numbers.....

Smart was at VCU for 6 years.... looking at team defensive stats....
2010- FTRate was #41 in the country. TO rate was #130
2011- FT Rate was #93 in the country. TO rate was #62.
2012- FT Rate was #186 in the country. TO rate was #1
2013- FT Rate was #272 in the country. TO rate was #1
2014- FT Rate was #158 in the country. TO rate was #1
2015- FT Rate was #198 in the country. TO rate was #11
At Texas
2016 FT rate was #203 in the country. TO rate #152
2017 FT rate is #49 in the country. TO Rate #179

So while it did hurt them a bit in 2013 really only- the turnovers still were coming. But get this. The freedom of movement stuff started up not in 2013, but in 2014.

And look at VCU now....
2016- FT Rate #171 TO Rate #18
2017- FT Rate #242 TO Rate #22

So they're still turning teams over more than just about anyone. Get turnovers on about 2 of every 9 possessions.

As far as Texas this year- they are 7-7, but against a really tough schedule. 7 losses, and only 1 is outside the KP top 100. Northwestern, Colorado, Michigan, Arkansas, and Kansas St- all 5 away from home. Their SOS right now is #33. Projected to finish with a top 10 SOS overall.

The question was, did you watch them? I actually watched them when Xavier was in the A-10 with them and they would start the game by having every single defender put their hand on the guy they were gaurding. The refs would let it go and then they would continue the rest of the game. VCU deserves props for their defense, but Shaka's HAVOC did use gimmicks as part of it.

[paulxu]

Here's some off the wall thoughts.
In looking at history, today's high school and college players probably could care less about a school's achievements in the last century.
It's for sure the media doesn't care what happened then.
So, I tend to look at what's happened since 2000.

1 - Breakup of P6 to P5, and creation of BE as we know it now
2 - Validation of conference by Nova winning it all...thank you Nova
3 - Continued validation will require good NCAA showings
4 - Needed to add teams at breakup for Fox content

Teams selected for BE and history from 2000, while meeting institutional criteria and making market sense:

1 - Butler (11 NCAA this century, 4 S16's)
2 - Xavier (10 NCAA's this century, 6 S16's)
3 - Creighton (9 NCAA's this century)

In looking at other candidates I'm struck by something...coaching changes. When you look at the history from 2000, of Non P5 school achievements in the NCAA, a certain pattern appears. If one of those schools reaches the E8 or F4, the coach tends to leave to a P5 school.

1 - Jim Larranaga FF George Mason, goes to Miami
2 - Shaka Smart FF VCU, goes to Texas
3 - Brad Stevens 2 FF Butler, goes to Celtics
4 - Thad Matta E8 Xavier, goes to OSU
5 - Sean Miller E8 Xavier, goes to Arizona
6 - Phil Martelli E8 St Joes...too old to move on?
7 - Bob Mikilop E8 Davidson...too old to move on?
8 - Archie Miller E8 Dayton....??????

The common denominator in all but one is that the team (except for Xavier) has yet to return to a S16 since their great (E8) or magical (FF) appearance. Xavier has been lucky with our coaching succession, but even yet has not returned to an E8 (a pox on you Wisconsin).

I still think Fox may want one more team in 2019 for content in our round robin format. Hard to see a good fit anywhere on the horizon.
Dayton seems to be a market overlap, and I think if history is any key, Archie will leave soon. The shine of his FF was wearing off for Shaka with not returning past the first weekend, and he took Texas. Archie like Thad and Sean, has an E8 under his belt. I think he will want the challenge off a P5 situation, and waiting for the big blue bloods is not something I think he'll do.

Wish Richmond or St Louis could have put together more than one S16 in the discussed time frame, and institutionally and market wise I think they would be a great fit. They just haven't recruited/coached well enough to compete with VCU, Dayton, etc in the A10. As good as the A10 has been in the past, they don't have 1 current team who has been to a second S16 this century.

I personally can't see the current BE schools accepting any state institution, even Connecticut. If they are pushed to add a school it may just be one of those above who shows the most promise long term for the league.

[stever20]

I watched them quite a bit.

My point is simple. If it was all a gimmick, then why when they put the freedom of movement rules in place did their foul rate go DOWN and not way up?

As a lot of presses go, they got a lot of their turnovers on passes- either directly stealing the pass or forcing bad passes.

[stever20]

Here's some off the wall thoughts.
In looking at history, today's high school and college players probably could care less about a school's achievements in the last century.
It's for sure the media doesn't care what happened then.
So, I tend to look at what's happened since 2000.

1 - Breakup of P6 to P5, and creation of BE as we know it now
2 - Validation of conference by Nova winning it all...thank you Nova
3 - Continued validation will require good NCAA showings
4 - Needed to add teams at breakup for Fox content

Teams selected for BE and history from 2000, while meeting institutional criteria and making market sense:

1 - Butler (11 NCAA this century, 4 S16's)
2 - Xavier (10 NCAA's this century, 6 S16's)
3 - Creighton (9 NCAA's this century)

In looking at other candidates I'm struck by something...coaching changes. When you look at the history from 2000, of Non P5 school achievements in the NCAA, a certain pattern appears. If one of those schools reaches the E8 or F4, the coach tends to leave to a P5 school.

1 - Jim Larranaga FF George Mason, goes to Miami
2 - Shaka Smart FF VCU, goes to Texas
3 - Brad Stevens 2 FF Butler, goes to Celtics
4 - Thad Matta E8 Xavier, goes to OSU
5 - Sean Miller E8 Xavier, goes to Arizona
6 - Phil Martelli E8 St Joes...too old to move on?
7 - Bob Mikilop E8 Davidson...too old to move on?
8 - Archie Miller E8 Dayton....??????

The common denominator in all but one is that the team (except for Xavier) has yet to return to a S16 since their great (E8) or magical (FF) appearance. Xavier has been lucky with our coaching succession, but even yet has not returned to an E8 (a pox on you Wisconsin).

I still think Fox may want one more team in 2019 for content in our round robin format. Hard to see a good fit anywhere on the horizon.
Dayton seems to be a market overlap, and I think if history is any key, Archie will leave soon. The shine of his FF was wearing off for Shaka with not returning past the first weekend, and he took Texas. Archie like Thad and Sean, has an E8 under his belt. I think he will want the challenge off a P5 situation, and waiting for the big blue bloods is not something I think he'll do.

Wish Richmond or St Louis could have put together more than one S16 in the discussed time frame, and institutionally and market wise I think they would be a great fit. They just haven't recruited/coached well enough to compete with VCU, Dayton, etc in the A10. As good as the A10 has been in the past, they don't have 1 current team who has been to a second S16 this century.

I personally can't see the current BE schools accepting any state institution, even Connecticut. If they are pushed to add a school it may just be one of those above who shows the most promise long term for the league.

If UConn wants to come, and Fox wants them to come, UConn will be in the Big East. Period the end.

[Bluejay]

I made the following post in the JT3 thread yesterday:

I'm going to throw this out there and then duck for cover....

Shaka's a fraud. His VCU teams won by playing a modified version of football on the court as opposed to actual basketball. They weren't "physical" in the sense of the 1980's BE "physical," they just outright fouled constantly but the fouls didn't get called. I contend that Shaka's struggles at Texas actually have more to do with the recent rule changes and rule emphases that have made "havoc" illegal (as it always really was anyway), rather than due to any other reason. Mind you - I have no problem with Shaka utilizing that format at the time because the refs let him get away with it, but it was barely basketball.

[Gopher+RamFan]

I made the following post in the JT3 thread yesterday:

I'm going to throw this out there and then duck for cover....

Shaka's a fraud. His VCU teams won by playing a modified version of football on the court as opposed to actual basketball. They weren't "physical" in the sense of the 1980's BE "physical," they just outright fouled constantly but the fouls didn't get called. I contend that Shaka's struggles at Texas actually have more to do with the recent rule changes and rule emphases that have made "havoc" illegal (as it always really was anyway), rather than due to any other reason. Mind you - I have no problem with Shaka utilizing that format at the time because the refs let him get away with it, but it was barely basketball.

Shaka's problem this year is the PG position. He doesn't have a true point guard and went after several transfers in the offseason.

[Gopher+RamFan]

Being the only VCU poster here, it looks like I missed a few good posts.

1. What market overlap are people posting about? Richmond-Petersburg is the 56th DMA (not great, just good) and doesn't overlap with DC. Being a state school, alternating w/GMU as having the largest student base in VA, we do tend to be connected to all parts of the commonwealth, including Fairfax and Arlington which is the only way I could see an overlapping market.

2. Success: VCU hasn't been outside the top 100 rpi since the 2002-2003 season despite being in the CAA. Put that against any other expansion candidate. VCU is on pace to make their 7th straight NCAA tournament (2nd under Will Wade) and the recruiting has been sustained or rising since Shaka left; as Wade brought in a top 25 2017 class.

3. Commitment: VCU opened a $25 million practice facility and pays the full cost of attendance for athletes. The program has sold out 90 straight games dating back to before the Final Four. Basketball is the #1 sport and priority for the school of 32,000 students. It has arguably the best traveling fanbase for conference tournaments (Dayton close behind). This commitment to being the best in basketball can be seen in the hiring of successive successful coaches: Capel, Grant, Smart and Wade.

4. Academic rankings: VCU is ranked nationally in the 160s right next to Saint John's. VCU did $240 million in sponsored research this past year and boasts a great medical school with a level 1 trauma center.

5. Media/Money: VCU has an endowment of $1.65 Billion. VCU's Athletic Department signed a 10 year media rights deal valued at $2.5 million a year - this currently beats Georgetown's similar deal signed the same year. Georgetown's is based in performance (2.0-3.0 million/yr) and that has been lacking.

People on this board comment on who "really brings in the market" or "who would Fox want us to bring in". If a public school is not out the question - just look at the respective candidates' media rights deals and VCU is at the top of that list.

[Bill Marsh]

You guys make it sound like the only factor is basketball. While it was clearly the most important factor, it wasn't the only one. Creighton also had the academic pedigree and commitment to other sports - notably high level soccer and volleyball.

Jays are a Top 10 program and the recruiting is just now picking up steam. Why is there an argument over this at all?

I don't think there is. Some comments were taken out of context and/or misunderstood. Nobody disputes that Creighton is an excellent conference member and was the right choice from day one.

[EastCoastFan]

Long time lurking..first time posting.
I have been following NBE from the inception. Just wanted to post a NYT Nate Silver article from the time when Catholic schools broke away.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... l-schools/

As you can see, if you scroll down to the end of the article to the potential additions list, there was no question that Xavier, Butler and Creighton were the best available programs after Gonzaga at the time. There was not clear 11th or 12th potential member. To this day, there is still no clear 11th or 12th potential member. I don't see how there will be any clear 11th or 12th potential member in the next 5/6 years. Currently Big East is perfectly constructed with 10 members, 18 games schedule. I hope they don't mess with it.