GumbyDamnit! wrote:stever20 wrote:I don't think coaches today will coach as long as the guys there now.
And even with that..... take Wright 15 years from now. That would be 69. That would be 5 years older than Pitino is right now. Do you really think Pitino will coach for 5 more years? I sure don't. I don't really think he'll coach 2 more years even.
Oh, thanks for the in depth analysis. Since "you don't think so", I should probably let Coach Wright know that he's got 6-7 years left.
Please tell us... how many years does Coach K have left? Laranaga? And the only reason guys like Pitino, Roy Wms or Boeheim may not coach well into their 70's is b/c they run less than clean programs and may either get forced to move on or just get tired of the microscope. I just read an article about Izzo on Fanside in which he predicts he'll stick around for 8-10 more years. He's 62. Larry Brown, is 76 for God's sake. So other than that same Stever "gut feeling" that predicted the demise of the BE and the rise of the AAC, what are you basing your opinions on? I'll answer for you: nothing.
stever20 wrote:The thing is, your initial statement in this was that if the core remains for 15 years.... The fact is looking at the coaches list for all 351 schools, only 16 coaches have been at their schools for longer than 15 years right now. With of those 16, 12 being at non P6 conferences. Boeheim, Coach K, Izzo, and Brey are the exceptions- and not the rule. Wright is already tied for 17th in longest tenure at 1 school with Pitino and Bennett(from St Mary's) right now. Only 55 guys enter this year starting at least their 10th year at the school. Turnover happens.
So to act like all of the guys you listed would be around in 15 years is extremely unlikely. Wright and McDermott 15 years from now will be older than Pitino is right now. Willard was on the hot seat last year, and if Seton Hall falls apart after this class departs, he'll be gone too. Holtmann is an interesting one as well. Odds are very good that at least 2-3(if not more quite frankly) are gone in 15 years.
also- Izzo is only 61, not 62.
GumbyDamnit! wrote:stever20 wrote:The thing is, your initial statement in this was that if the core remains for 15 years.... The fact is looking at the coaches list for all 351 schools, only 16 coaches have been at their schools for longer than 15 years right now. With of those 16, 12 being at non P6 conferences. Boeheim, Coach K, Izzo, and Brey are the exceptions- and not the rule. Wright is already tied for 17th in longest tenure at 1 school with Pitino and Bennett(from St Mary's) right now. Only 55 guys enter this year starting at least their 10th year at the school. Turnover happens.
So to act like all of the guys you listed would be around in 15 years is extremely unlikely. Wright and McDermott 15 years from now will be older than Pitino is right now. Willard was on the hot seat last year, and if Seton Hall falls apart after this class departs, he'll be gone too. Holtmann is an interesting one as well. Odds are very good that at least 2-3(if not more quite frankly) are gone in 15 years.
also- Izzo is only 61, not 62.
Yawn. The Steven two step in mid-season form. Step 1: Presents argument that BE coaches won't be around for 15 years because of age. Gets slapped down with actual data. Step 2: Change argument to something else; this time focus on turnover and anything else that you can cling to.
Not sure you understand what "core" means. I fully expect 2, 3, 4 even 5 to leave. But Wright, Cooley, JT3, Mack have all said in no uncertainties that they were in their "dream job(s)." Add in Big Mac, who has had a P5 job and seems giddily content with the support he gets at CU. That CORE of coaches could very easily stick around for a long time. Also why is Pitino the comparison you keep pointing to. First the guy is still coaching so who really knows how long he'll remain at UL. And secondly, who really f'ing cares about Slick Rick anyway? When I presented my opinion I used phrases like "IF they continue coaching," and you of course speak in absolutes as if you have a Stever-BE-half-empty crystal ball.
Thanks for the Izzo correction. I stand corrected. So his tentative plan is to coach until he is 71, not 72. How could I have been so careless? Lol.
GumbyDamnit! wrote:stever20 wrote:just looking- probably not realistic for that core to be here in 15 years...
Wright is 54 believe it or not. I'd kind of guess about 6-7 years left for him most likely.
McDermott is 51 already.
Cooley and Mack are 47 and 46 respectively.
The 2 young pups that you list are Holtmann(44) and Willard(41). Those 2(along with Wojo) IMO are the biggest flight risks right now. I think for Willard the key will be to watch next years recruiting class. If they don't have much by this time next year- you really would start to worry.
AS far as the SEC money, I'd say that the money difference between them(and Big Ten now) and the other P5's - has grown considerably. Look at some of the guys that the SEC has gotten coaches wise last few years. Ben Howland prime example.
Yeah, OK Stever. What a tool statement.
Pitino - 64
Roy Wms - 66
Laranaga - 67
Coach K - 69
Boeheim - 71
Stever: "No way Wright will coach another 15 years" (would be 69), "and probably not MC Dermott either!" (would be 66). Yeah, OK pal.
Hall2012 wrote:#22- Indiana
Do we see the next Big East school (most likely Seton Hall or Creighton) tomorrow, or are they putting 4 in the top 20?
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