College Sports Madness Previews

[Bill Marsh]

5 Big East teams in College Sports Madness top 24.

[stever20]

I don't think coaches today will coach as long as the guys there now.

And even with that..... take Wright 15 years from now. That would be 69. That would be 5 years older than Pitino is right now. Do you really think Pitino will coach for 5 more years? I sure don't. I don't really think he'll coach 2 more years even.

Oh, thanks for the in depth analysis. Since "you don't think so", I should probably let Coach Wright know that he's got 6-7 years left.

Please tell us... how many years does Coach K have left? Laranaga? And the only reason guys like Pitino, Roy Wms or Boeheim may not coach well into their 70's is b/c they run less than clean programs and may either get forced to move on or just get tired of the microscope. I just read an article about Izzo on Fanside in which he predicts he'll stick around for 8-10 more years. He's 62. Larry Brown, is 76 for God's sake. So other than that same Stever "gut feeling" that predicted the demise of the BE and the rise of the AAC, what are you basing your opinions on? I'll answer for you: nothing.

The thing is, your initial statement in this was that if the core remains for 15 years.... The fact is looking at the coaches list for all 351 schools, only 16 coaches have been at their schools for longer than 15 years right now. With of those 16, 12 being at non P6 conferences. Boeheim, Coach K, Izzo, and Brey are the exceptions- and not the rule. Wright is already tied for 17th in longest tenure at 1 school with Pitino and Bennett(from St Mary's) right now. Only 55 guys enter this year starting at least their 10th year at the school. Turnover happens.

So to act like all of the guys you listed would be around in 15 years is extremely unlikely. Wright and McDermott 15 years from now will be older than Pitino is right now. Willard was on the hot seat last year, and if Seton Hall falls apart after this class departs, he'll be gone too. Holtmann is an interesting one as well. Odds are very good that at least 2-3(if not more quite frankly) are gone in 15 years.

also- Izzo is only 61, not 62.

[stever20]

St Mary's #24, 6 seed
teams left....
ACC, B10 5 ea
BE 4 ea
B12, P12 3 ea
WCC , AAC, SEC 1 ea

[GumbyDamnit!]

The thing is, your initial statement in this was that if the core remains for 15 years.... The fact is looking at the coaches list for all 351 schools, only 16 coaches have been at their schools for longer than 15 years right now. With of those 16, 12 being at non P6 conferences. Boeheim, Coach K, Izzo, and Brey are the exceptions- and not the rule. Wright is already tied for 17th in longest tenure at 1 school with Pitino and Bennett(from St Mary's) right now. Only 55 guys enter this year starting at least their 10th year at the school. Turnover happens.

So to act like all of the guys you listed would be around in 15 years is extremely unlikely. Wright and McDermott 15 years from now will be older than Pitino is right now. Willard was on the hot seat last year, and if Seton Hall falls apart after this class departs, he'll be gone too. Holtmann is an interesting one as well. Odds are very good that at least 2-3(if not more quite frankly) are gone in 15 years.

also- Izzo is only 61, not 62.

Yawn. The Steven two step in mid-season form. Step 1: Presents argument that BE coaches won't be around for 15 years because of age. Gets slapped down with actual data. Step 2: Change argument to something else; this time focus on turnover and anything else that you can cling to.

Not sure you understand what "core" means. I fully expect 2, 3, 4 even 5 to leave. But Wright, Cooley, JT3, Mack have all said in no uncertainties that they were in their "dream job(s)." Add in Big Mac, who has had a P5 job and seems giddily content with the support he gets at CU. That CORE of coaches could very easily stick around for a long time. Also why is Pitino the comparison you keep pointing to. First the guy is still coaching so who really knows how long he'll remain at UL. And secondly, who really f'ing cares about Slick Rick anyway? When I presented my opinion I used phrases like "IF they continue coaching," and you of course speak in absolutes as if you have a Stever-BE-half-empty crystal ball.

Thanks for the Izzo correction. I stand corrected. So his tentative plan is to coach until he is 71, not 72. How could I have been so careless? Lol.

[stever20]

The thing is, your initial statement in this was that if the core remains for 15 years.... The fact is looking at the coaches list for all 351 schools, only 16 coaches have been at their schools for longer than 15 years right now. With of those 16, 12 being at non P6 conferences. Boeheim, Coach K, Izzo, and Brey are the exceptions- and not the rule. Wright is already tied for 17th in longest tenure at 1 school with Pitino and Bennett(from St Mary's) right now. Only 55 guys enter this year starting at least their 10th year at the school. Turnover happens.

So to act like all of the guys you listed would be around in 15 years is extremely unlikely. Wright and McDermott 15 years from now will be older than Pitino is right now. Willard was on the hot seat last year, and if Seton Hall falls apart after this class departs, he'll be gone too. Holtmann is an interesting one as well. Odds are very good that at least 2-3(if not more quite frankly) are gone in 15 years.

also- Izzo is only 61, not 62.

Yawn. The Steven two step in mid-season form. Step 1: Presents argument that BE coaches won't be around for 15 years because of age. Gets slapped down with actual data. Step 2: Change argument to something else; this time focus on turnover and anything else that you can cling to.

Not sure you understand what "core" means. I fully expect 2, 3, 4 even 5 to leave. But Wright, Cooley, JT3, Mack have all said in no uncertainties that they were in their "dream job(s)." Add in Big Mac, who has had a P5 job and seems giddily content with the support he gets at CU. That CORE of coaches could very easily stick around for a long time. Also why is Pitino the comparison you keep pointing to. First the guy is still coaching so who really knows how long he'll remain at UL. And secondly, who really f'ing cares about Slick Rick anyway? When I presented my opinion I used phrases like "IF they continue coaching," and you of course speak in absolutes as if you have a Stever-BE-half-empty crystal ball.

Thanks for the Izzo correction. I stand corrected. So his tentative plan is to coach until he is 71, not 72. How could I have been so careless? Lol.

You said in your original post that the core was Mack, Holtzman, Cooley, Wright, Willard, Big Mac. That's 6 coaches. Now you are saying the core is Wright, Cooley, JT3, Mack, and McDermott- and you expect all 5 of those to remain. So what happened to Holtzman and Willard? Or is the core all 10 coaches? Which is it?

And I just said it's pretty unrealistic to expect any core to be around in 15 years. Maybe 1 or 2 of them, but just looking at the turnover in the profession, it wouldn't be normal for the core to be around for 15 years total, let alone 15 plus how long they've been around so far.

Also I have a problem with you saying that it's actual data. Pitino like I said is 64. Williams is 66. Larranaga is 67. Wright 15 years from now would be 69 or older than all 3 of them. So how in the hell is that actual data?

[stever20]

West Virginia #23, 6 seed
teams left....
ACC, B10 5 ea
BE 4 ea
P12 3
B12 2
WCC , AAC, SEC 1 ea

Would think by end of weekend we'll be seeing at least 1 of Creighton or Seton Hall. A VERY strong projection IMO, better than most we're going to see I feel.

[GumbyDamnit!]

just looking- probably not realistic for that core to be here in 15 years...

Wright is 54 believe it or not. I'd kind of guess about 6-7 years left for him most likely.

McDermott is 51 already.

Cooley and Mack are 47 and 46 respectively.

The 2 young pups that you list are Holtmann(44) and Willard(41). Those 2(along with Wojo) IMO are the biggest flight risks right now. I think for Willard the key will be to watch next years recruiting class. If they don't have much by this time next year- you really would start to worry.

AS far as the SEC money, I'd say that the money difference between them(and Big Ten now) and the other P5's - has grown considerably. Look at some of the guys that the SEC has gotten coaches wise last few years. Ben Howland prime example.

Yeah, OK Stever. What a tool statement.

Pitino - 64
Roy Wms - 66
Laranaga - 67
Coach K - 69
Boeheim - 71

Stever: "No way Wright will coach another 15 years" (would be 69), "and probably not MC Dermott either!" (would be 66). Yeah, OK pal.

Stever try to follow along...

1. I stated that we have a league full of good coaches that COULD be around for 15 years.

2. YOU stated that it was unlikely and pointed to the following ages of the BE coaches that I referenced as a primary reason:
Wright - 54 (69 in 15 years); McDermott - 51 (66); Cooley - 47 (62); Mack - 46 (61); let's add JT3 to that for sh!ts and giggles - 50 (65)
Avg age in 15 years = 64.6

3. I responded by demonstrating that it's not a big stretch and pointed to the ages of the the CORE coaches in the ACC as an example
Pitino - 64; RW - 66; Laranaga - 67; Coach K - 69; JB - 71
Avg age NOW - 67.4

4. You now want to change the goalposts. This is clearly not unexpected knowing your M.O. on this board.

So this is how data works. RIGHT NOW the major core of the ACC coaches averages 67.4 years of age. Want to throw Mike Brey in there? Great. He's older than Wright at 57. Point is IF the BE coaches stuck around for another 15 years, they'd still be ON AVERAGE, 3 years younger than the CURRENT ACC core coaches. That is not disputable data and it directly disproves your opinion that 15 years is too long for the BE coaches to still be in coaching positions. You remember, Wright has 6 maybe 7 years left as you presented.

And to boot show me where it says that these ACC coaches have already planned their exit. The only one is Boeheim and he is being forced out b/c of his running a questionable program. Did Coach K announce his retirement? Laranaga? Williams? So for all we know, each may stay on for another 5 or more.

EVERYTHING ELSE YOU PRESENT IS CONJECTURE. You assume this or have a "gut feeling about that." Guys leaving for better programs; guys retiring early, etc, etc etc. All that is used to deflect a poor argument that you are desperately trying to still support.

Here's the bottom line. If we were to look at conferences like a balance sheet, the BE has some great coaching assets worth a great deal of value, both now and in the future. The ACC, in comparison, has close to what we can refer to as fully depreciated assets. We know they'll have to be replaced within the next 10 years...Meaning the ACC should be at least a little concerned about how well some of these programs might transition into its next coaching generation as their coaching assets are retired. I don't believe that to be a problem for the BE for some time.

Go ahead and poke your little Stever holes with a statement that starts with :"here's the thing." Can't wait.

[stever20]

I totally agree that the ACC is a league that will be undergoing a ton of change. I've pissed off tons of ACC fans saying that same thing- especially Louisville fans who say we've had Crum and Pitino so we're basically guaranteed to be ok with whoever replaces Pitino.

You DID in your first post say that the core included Willard and Holtman.. You had 6 folks in the core. Those 2, plus Wright, McDermott, Cooley, and Mack....

I said that it's possible with Willard and Holtman they could easily be gone pretty quickly. And with the ages of Wright and McDermott- you can't guarantee 15 years at all.

My problem with your argument is that considering we have all of 16/351 guys who have been at their schools for longer than 15 years- you thinking that most of the Big East guys are going to be in place 15 years from now. Sure 1 or 2 might, but the odds definitely don't even favor that, let alone more than that.

I think a FAR more reasonable argument would be that the core coaches in the Big East will be around at least until the next TV deal is done- in about 8 years... Wright would be 62, McDermott 59, Cooley 55, Mack 54, JT3 58. Even there with turnover, etc., probably a bit of a reach, but IMO pretty reasonable.

[Hall2012]

#22- Indiana

Do we see the next Big East school (most likely Seton Hall or Creighton) tomorrow, or are they putting 4 in the top 20?

[stever20]

#22- Indiana

Do we see the next Big East school (most likely Seton Hall or Creighton) tomorrow, or are they putting 4 in the top 20?

It's funny, if I were a team and this was the Gospel, I'd rather be 21 than any of the next 4 spots at least. Avoid those tricky 5/12 games. And then avoid the 1 in the regional semi finals.