Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Barley]

Some time late Monday afternoon, the Big 12's presidents may finally provide a definitive decision on expansion.

A news conference has been scheduled after the conference's board of directors meeting, presumably to let everyone know whether the Big 12 will add new members, stand pat at 10 or punt.

Sources confirmed Wednesday that pretty much all the options are on the table, including the possibility of football-only membership with Houston and BYU the most likely members. The sources also confirmed that expansion has gone from likelihood about six weeks ago to maybe a 1-in-3 chance.

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... ready-lost

[stever20]

Stever, those are not comparable. UConn was once in a major conference living in the top 15 seemingly every year. They were at the top of the crop. Now they DOWNGRADE to the AAC playing those no names. Gonzaga has been constant in the same conference. They are clearly a major program playing in a mid major conference i.e. Xavier, Butler, Creighton which is why we snatched those teams up. They have been very good throughout coaching changes. UConn has had almost all of its success with 1 coach: Calhoun. UConn has yet to show they are world-beaters without Calhoun's fingerprints on them in a mid major conference. Gonzaga is also a pretty big outlier. There are exceptions to everything. No offense to G'Town, but look how quickly they went from competing for Elite 8's and Final Four's to being perceived as declining (btw I think G'Town will be fine but that's the perception nationally). UConn's lore was directly tied to the Big East. MSG, the Northeast rivalries, the brand in the tri-state. Now they play in the boonies and are out of their region. They chose football and they are now paying for it. They tried to be something they weren't. Now they will have to come crawling back.

First off, the AAC minus UConn blows the doors off of the WCC minus Gonzaga. just looking at last years ken pom ratings- you could use RPI as well-
AAC minus UConn- 86,16,32,65,61,75,185,191,238,200
WCC minus Gonzaga- 34,53,137,205,244,206,218,227,269

or to put another way. AAC was the #7 conference last year. UConn was rated #26.
WCC was the #14 conference. Gonzaga was rated #21

Ollie has shown that he can recruit kids to the AAC.

Also Gonzaga has had only 2 coaches thru their run. Dan Monson who was there for 2 years, and Mark Few, who has been there for the last 17 years. So hardly being very good throughout coaching changes. They've had 1. Only like around 20 guys have been at 1 program as long or longer than Few now.

So there's no doubt in my mind that UConn could remain in the AAC and be a perennial top 25 team easily. Especially if they keep on recruiting the way that Ollie has.

[stever20]

Also with the WCC- in the last 15 years, they've been a top single digit conference twice. Last year far more the normal than in previous years. But that's not hurt Gonzaga much at all. And as especially with Xavier and Butler- but also VCU- have shown- you don't have to be in a top conference in basketball to be a really good team long term. I mean- VCU has been in the tourney now 7 of the last 10 years.

Also I love how folks want to make the AAC out like UConn is playing ECU and Tulane every game. Right now there are 4 bad teams in the AAC- UCF, USF, ECU, and Tulane. UConn plays those teams only 6 games this year, meaning the other 12 games in conference are vs top 100 teams. Because they have 18 games and they get to avoid playing 2 teams a 2nd time.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I'm not sure if anyone watched the March to Madison Square Garden video that was released by the BE yesterday, but I did notice that UConn was shown a considerable amount for not being a conference team (more so than Louisville - which wasn't shown at all, Notre Dame - which wasn't shown at all, Pittsburgh - which was just shown in highlights where UConn beat them, and Syracuse - which had a considerable amount of memories in the Big East Tournament over the years).

I have no doubt that was intentional. Perhaps with the Big 12's conference expansion announcement on Monday, some ripples will be made.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

It would be stupid for UConn to say no.

It may be stupid, but I'm pretty close to entirely convinced that is what they would say. The few people who would actually be making a decision like that don't seem to have any desire to cut football, or reclassify football to FCS, or leave their current situation to join a league in all sports that is not an FBS conference. I think they would let everything collapse around them before they'd look to join a non FBS league.

I completely agree, but more importantly, Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy and the vast majority of state politicians agree. Big-time football aspirations dominate the thinking of UConn’s President and Board of Governors, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. It is worth noting that UConn’s President and Board of Governors are political appointees who can be replaced if they don't toe the company line on UConn football.

UConn was once in a major conference living in the top 15 seemingly every year. They were at the top of the crop. Now they DOWNGRADE to the AAC...

UConn's lore was directly tied to the Big East. MSG, the Northeast rivalries, the brand in the tri-state. Now they play in the boonies and are out of their region. They chose football and they are now paying for it. They tried to be something they weren't.

I agree with all of the above, but disagree with your conclusion:

Now they will have to come crawling back.

Link to post below:

But what about UCONN?

The Big East is open to UConn's return, but it's a highly unlikely scenario

UConn could drop football (or move to the FCS) -- but why would they?

UConn isn't getting a lot of TV money currently and the state is in a ton of debt. Let's say they miss out on a Big 12 invite this time around. You could argue the football ship has sailed since the program isn't very competitive. So if they did drop it, or even went back to the FCS, then yes, they would be a perfect fit for the Big East.

Dropping football would be admitting failure, not exactly a common trait among politicians or collegiate administrators. It would also be giving up the Power 5 dream and all that money. And it would definitely piss off some influential boosters.

I just can't see it happening that way for the Huskies. And that means a Big East-UConn reunion probably isn't in the cards.

Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) Conferences

American Athletic Conference
Atlantic Coast Conference
Big Ten Conference
Big 12 Conference
Conference USA
Mid-American Conference
Mountain West Conference
Pac-12 Conference
Southeastern Conference
Sun Belt Conference

Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) Independent Institutions

United States Military Academy (Army)
University of Massachusetts
University of Notre Dame
Brigham Young University

Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) Conferences

Big Sky Conference
Big South Conference
Colonial Athletic Association
Ivy League
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Missouri Valley Football Conference
Northeast Conference
Ohio Valley Conference
Patriot League
Pioneer Football League
Southern Conference
Southland Conference
Southwestern Athletic Conference

The State of Connecticut has a lot of very wealthy benefactors who financially support UConn football and financially support the campaigns of state politicians who support UConn football. Unless and until these wealthy benefactors collectively think that the interests of UConn football would better be served as an FBS Independent or as a member of a FCS Conference, UConn’s basketball team will not be joining the Big East.

[BEX]

They are losing 20 million a year on football. Guess you don't think the taxpayers will notice:

http://www.app.com/story/sports/college ... /91840616/

[stever20]

I'm not sure if anyone watched the March to Madison Square Garden video that was released by the BE yesterday, but I did notice that UConn was shown a considerable amount for not being a conference team (more so than Louisville - which wasn't shown at all, Notre Dame - which wasn't shown at all, Pittsburgh - which was just shown in highlights where UConn beat them, and Syracuse - which had a considerable amount of memories in the Big East Tournament over the years).

I have no doubt that was intentional. Perhaps with the Big 12's conference expansion announcement on Monday, some ripples will be made.

Interesting. Next week could prove to be really interesting, especially if the big 12 does expand with Houston and Cincy. At that point, I think UConn would be at the day of reckoning. if there's no expansion, I don't think it's anywhere near as close as folks would think. I think at that point- UConn would wait at least until the new TV deal is done after the 19-20 season.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

They are losing 20 million a year on football.

The people in Connecticut who are pulling the political strings (i.e. the very wealthy benefactors) don't care, and elected officials are disinclined to subvert the wishes of the people who finance their re-election campaigns. Democracy is not the same thing as making sensible financial decisions.

Previously posted on Page 57 of this thread:

UConn's athletic budget much larger than other Big 12 expansion hopefuls – August 22, 2016

Here are the USA Today figures of the top 20 non-Power-5 schools, with athletic budget and school subsidy. The subsidy gives you an idea how much revenue the departments generate (by subtracting) but also give you an idea how much the school is committed to athletic success.

1. Connecticut $72 million ($28M subsidy)
2. Cincinnati $52 million ($23M subsidy)
10. Houston $44 million ($25M subsidy)

[XtoDC]

With each passing year, it becomes clearer and clearer that the C7 made out like bandits in the Big East/American split. Not only did we get the Big East name (which was a priceless asset for the basketball schools in itself), Madison Square Garden (which was equally as valuable to the Big East name) and our freedom from the football schools, but - with the move - we secured our place as finally being able to be in a position where we, the basketball schools, got to make the choices and decisions in realignment - not simply be relegated as a bystander or an unwilling accomplice for more revenue. It is unfortunate that schools like Tulane, East Carolina, UCF, USF, Houston and SMU receive bad reputations in basketball (history and lack of prior success drive that), but (by being in a basketball league with those schools) it was a long-term building process that the C7 could not and did not want to afford (not to mention make more revenue without them).

Unfortunately, UConn is part of that long-term building process with those schools in a different and more unique way. They need schools like Tulane, East Carolina, UCF, USF, Houston and SMU to do well in basketball and football. If they don't the prestige and reputation of their league suffers - as does their own athletic program. It is a challenging situation for them because, with those schools eventual and hopeful success, UConn needs to ensure that it does better than those programs in order to be firmly situated in the driver's seat when a realignment wave hits again. If they continue to lose to Houston, SMU, Tulsa, East Carolina, Tulane, UCF and USF in football and/or basketball, then their athletic program prestige drops while those programs are elevated.

I said it three years ago, but UConn staying in the American was a lose/lose scenario. They had nothing to gain and everything to lose - and still do. They may not realize it today, and they certainly did not realize it three years ago, but perhaps there will be a day where they finally pull the plug on the American experiment and pursue other options. I think it can be universally assumed that UConn is not destined to be in the American long-term.

That reminds me a lot of when Xavier joined the Atlantic 10 in the 90's. It was considered a good conference at the time and had strong programs like UMass and Temple. They weren't able to keep a stranglehold on their perch at the top and Xavier knocked them off to be the most attractive addition from the A-10 for basketball reasons.

What happens if the Big East finally decides to expand in ten years, and UConn is finally willing to accept because of whatever has changed the college sports landscape, but they have been overtaken as the top dog? Maybe UMass finds another Calipari level coach that wants to stick around and has rediscovered their 90's mojo? Steph Curry remains an MVP contender for 5+ years and he and UA develop a relationship and branding that elevates Davidson? A couple of the programs in attractive cities (Detroit, Belmont, Boston U, Duquesne) develop high profiles and UConn is struggling to make tourneys? UConn could be f---ing up their bball more than they know by pursuing football.

[FenwayFriar]

I'm not sure if anyone watched the March to Madison Square Garden video that was released by the BE yesterday, but I did notice that UConn was shown a considerable amount for not being a conference team (more so than Louisville - which wasn't shown at all, Notre Dame - which wasn't shown at all, Pittsburgh - which was just shown in highlights where UConn beat them, and Syracuse - which had a considerable amount of memories in the Big East Tournament over the years).

I have no doubt that was intentional. Perhaps with the Big 12's conference expansion announcement on Monday, some ripples will be made.

That's funny, I thought the same exact thing when I watched that video. Especially since during Media Day they had Jim Calhoun alongside P.J. Carlesimo and Chris Mullin speaking with Bill Raftery during the legends round table. I highly doubt they would have invited a legend from Syracuse (founding member), BC (founding member), or Pitt (joined in 1982), let alone West Virginia, Notre Dame, or Louisville who all joined later. So clearly the Big East still has a good relationship with UConn, which I doubt they have with any of the other schools. Obviously this can be traced back to the fact that UConn didn't actually leave the conference, while all of the others did.

However, Calhoun also said this at Media Day on the chances UConn returns to the Big East: “Not likely. Now if they can’t get into a (power five) conference, then they should do that (come back). But if you have the chance to make $20 million (per year), you can’t pass that up."