Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Novachap]

Not sure I could see a scenario where Nova would be in favor of Temple.... already play them once a year and the Philly market probably does not justify 2 teams ratings wise let a lone for recruiting purposes.

[Xudash]

Not sure I could see a scenario where Nova would be in favor of Temple.... already play them once a year and the Philly market probably does not justify 2 teams ratings wise let a lone for recruiting purposes.

Plus, it blows out the Round Robin format.

IF an addition is possible, and IF that addition can be UCONN, then add UCONN and stop right there.

IF UCONN isn't available, then stay at 10, and do so possibly for the duration (i.e. through our existing Fox media agreement and assuming continuing strong performance by the Big East).

When Xavier was in the A10, it always blew me away that the conference leadership allowed for 3 teams in Philly. I could certainly handle Temple and St. Joe's, but I resented LaSalle being allowed in, given its lack of commitment and its lack of ability to commit to the sport. That place they play in is still a dump. That whole deal was truly very stupid on the part of the A10.

[billyjack]

No to Temple. Most of us have no history with them, and no need to double up in Philadelphia. Same with St Joe's.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Aware that college sports and politics are inextricably linked in Texas . . .

The same can be said for Connecticut.

If you read the articles about proposed budget cuts in Connecticut (who is facing a $ 1 billion per year deficit), you can see these proposals in print:

• Reducing the State’s payroll by sacking 2,000 to 3,000 employees
• Across-the-board reductions in State employee pay and pension benefits
• Across-the-board reductions in social welfare benefits
• Across-the-board reductions in funding to hospitals
• Across-the-board reductions in law enforcement spending
• Across-the-board reductions in education spending
• Cancellation of raises already agreed with various labor unions (including the UConn professors and staff)

. . . but neither the Governor nor any Democrat or Republican State Legislators have even mentioned UConn football – an apparent ‘Holy Grail’.

The State of Connecticut is home to a lot of very wealthy individuals, many of whom are major donors to both UConn football and to State Legislators' campaigns. It can be reasonably assumed that many of these rich people know each other, talk to each other, and are like-minded about UConn joining a Power conference. Individually and collectively, Connecticut’s Governor and Legislators cannot afford to piss these people off.

It doesn’t seem to matter to anyone that TV networks will not be willing to pay $ 20 million per year or more for the TV rights to Huskies’ football.

What does matter is that UConn is not going to give up on ‘the dream’ until 65 or more schools form themselves into four larger conferences which do not include UConn.

UConn is irrelevant, because the Big East is ideal with 10 teams, and there is no good reason whatsoever for BE expansion in the foreseeable future.

[DeltaV]

No to Temple. Most of us have no history with them, and no need to double up in Philadelphia. Same with St Joe's.

Temple is a non-starter.

It would be interesting to see how much we could potentially soak UConn for in exit fees when the ACC comes calling for them. Looks like Maryland paid the ACC 31 million to get out...think we could at least get 20 million out of UConn? Plus whatever NCAA credits they earned?

Heck, it might be worth it to let them in for that alone...

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

BIG EAST EXPANSION

New Big East adds three, seals deal with Fox – USA Today – March 20, 2013

The "Catholic 7" has grown to the Catholic 10. And Wednesday, they took a major step toward officially becoming the Big East.

As expected, the seven non-football schools that announced a breakaway from the Big East in December officially added Xavier, Butler, and Creighton, and celebrated a new media rights deal with Fox during a news conference at News Corp.'s headquarters in New York.

Fox, which is launching Fox Sports 1 this fall as a would-be competitor to ESPN, wanted the programming sooner rather than later and paid handsomely to get it. Multiple reports have valued the deal at $ 500 million over 12 years, which would be more money per school for the Catholic 7 than they earned from television in the old Big East.

The league, which will keep the Big East name after a negotiation with the football schools, begins play with a 10-team line-up in 2013-14. The league is expected to grow to 12 teams, perhaps as early as 2014-15. Current A10 members Saint Louis and Dayton are thought to be primary targets if/when the Big East expands again.

Fox TV Contract Year. Basketball Season

1. 2013-14 . . . . . 7. 2019-20
2. 2014-15 . . . . . 8. 2020-21
3. 2015-16 . . . . . 9. 2021-22
4. 2016-17 . . . . 10. 2022-23
5. 2017-18 . . . . 11. 2023-24
6. 2018-19 . . . . 12. 2024-25

Unless something very unexpected happens in the next few years (such as Big East basketball ratings dropping significantly or UConn abandoning its big-time football aspirations), here’s the way I envisage any potential Big East expansion to occur:

(1) The Big East will remain a 10-school conference through the end of the 2024-25 season.

(2) Beginning with the 2025-26 season, the Big East will have a new TV rights contract in place with Fox Sports (or another major network) as a 10 or 12 school conference.

(3) The ‘ground work’ for possible BE expansion should begin around April 2023. By then, both the Big East and Fox Sports will have ten years of data at their disposal, a year to evaluate that data and evaluate potential expansion candidate schools, and two seasons before the expansion schools (if any) begin play in the Big East in the 2025-26 season.

(4) The ‘ground work’ for the Big East schools would include: (a) determining a list of expansion candidate criteria, and the relative weights to be assigned to each criterion, (b) determining a ‘short list’ of candidate schools, and (c) evaluating each candidate school with respect to the weighted criteria.

(5) The ‘ground work’ for Fox Sports would include: (a) reviewing actual annual revenue and profit/loss vs. projected annual revenue and profit/loss for the first ten years of their contract with the BE, (b) reviewing the contract amounts between other conferences and other TV networks, and (c) conduct specific college basketball TV market research for each school on the Big East’s short list.

(6) After Fox Sports completes their ground work, they will be in a position to advise the Big East of their anticipated offers for a new TV rights contract beginning with the 2025-26 season: (a) for the present 10-team conference, and (b) for various proposed 12-team conferences. Fox Sports will likely encourage the Big East to expand, because if two teams are added, it would increase game inventory and revenue for Fox Sports and therefore increase the value of the Big East TV rights contract.

(7) After the Big East completes their ground work and receives the feedback from Fox Sports, the Presidents of the Big East schools will conduct a formal vote on expansion to publicly confirm what they have previously decided in private discussions. I would expect this to happen in March or April 2024.

In short, it would be advantageous to Fox Sports for the Big East to expand. If Fox Sports wants a 12-team Big East, it can offer the Big East more annual revenue per school for a 12-team conference than for a 10-team conference.

If Fox Sports is willing to pay more money per year per school for a 12-team conference compared to a 10-team conference, the Big East will likely expand.

If Fox Sports is NOT willing to pay more money per year per school for a 12-team conference compared to a 10-team conference, the Big East will likely NOT expand.

While the choice of whether or not to expand (and if so, which schools to invite) is ultimately the prerogative of the ten Presidents of the Big East schools, I believe that their decisions will be strongly influenced by the preliminary offers that Fox Sports will privately convey to the Big East schools.

There is also the possibility that the Big East or Fox Sports (or both) may want to move the time table forward by a couple of years in order allow two expansion teams to ‘establish’ themselves in the Big East prior to the negotiation of the next Big East TV rights contract. As you may recall, the present contract between Fox Sports and the Big East includes a provision for pro rata increases in TV rights for expansion schools.

[muskienick]

If all Flyer fans were as logical and open-minded as Fieldhouse Flyer. I predict that many XU fans would be far more "flexible" about having UD on our season schedule again. (I would also imagine that many Flyer fans would look more kindly at Xavier if some of our more Dayton-critical Muskies would be more charitable toward the Flyers.)

And the bottom line is that FhF nailed it when he summed up the whole $ituation in the final two bold-print sentences in his most recent posting. If our current 12-year FOX contract proves to be a success for all involved and FOX wants to expand its viewing opportunities, then the Big East will likely go to 12 teams. In that event, I would hope that FS1 would have a seat on the decision-making selection committee and provide the impetu$$ to make the Big East attractive enough to an orphaned UConn and/or an A-10 program that has distanced itself from the rest of the Conference through consistent success in the League and in the post-season (NCAA-style especially)!

[gtmoBlue]

Very, very pretty FHF, very pretty indeed. A nice neat package all wrapped up with a ribbon. Great work.

However, as we have seen on numerous occasions - conference expansion ain't pretty and generally they are tryin' to hang a school with the ribbons. Expansion will be unexpected and surprising. With the P5 still in flux, the ACC attempting to plug the dike with a promised network and prematurely extending a GOR to cut off escape routes, the Big 12 potentially expanding or imploding, and the SEC sitting around waiting to pounce, it is far too early for your rosey prediction. Expansion will probably occur within the next year or 2 - and it won't be UConn or an a-10 school coming aboard the BEast. It will likely be former P5 schools who get shut out in the next round of shuffling. just my 2 cents.

[hortle]

If UCONN can put their football elsewhere, and they want to come to the Big East, I can't see it not happening. Whether that is a good thing or bad thing can be discussed, but that's just how I see it. I don't see the presidents or AD's espousing this exclusive mentality of "drop football or its a no go". Maybe some of the presidents, but definitely not the AD's. I would think they see way too much to gain by adding them. They elevate our national profile and I imagine they'd be in the conference until the next round of tv contract negotiations. We lose a lot from refusing them entry, and we really don't lose that much if/when they ditch us because of football. Or am I missing something?

[Xudash]

If UCONN can put their football elsewhere, and they want to come to the Big East, I can't see it not happening. Whether that is a good thing or bad thing can be discussed, but that's just how I see it. I don't see the presidents or AD's espousing this exclusive mentality of "drop football or its a no go". Maybe some of the presidents, but definitely not the AD's. I would think they see way too much to gain by adding them. They elevate our national profile and I imagine they'd be in the conference until the next round of tv contract negotiations. We lose a lot from refusing them entry, and we really don't lose that much if/when they ditch us because of football. Or am I missing something?

Solid post.

As has been pointed out, look at this from a business point of view. It's a slam dunk.

Secondly, though I understand "never say never," I personally believe that it will be near impossible for UCONN to get to a P5 level program were they to have previously joined the Big East.