2016-17 Preseason Basketball Polls

[gtmoBlue]

Well, it is Bleacher Report and Kerry Miller, so I am not surprised they got it wrong.

Underestimated the Hall and the Johnnies - over estimated Butler and Marquette.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Predicting the 2015-16 Big East College Basketball Standings – Bleacher Report – November, 2015

Villanova looks like it could run away with the league, but how much will that actually impress people? And how much can the Wildcats actually accomplish as the flag bearer in March?

Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller projects three bids this season, with only Nova as a lock.

2015-16 Final AP Poll (March 14, 2016) ... 2015-16 Final Big East Conference Game Standings

(4) Villanova ... 16-2 *
(9) Xavier ... 14-4 **
(20) Seton Hall ... 12-6 **
Providence ... 10-8 **
Butler ... 10-8 **
Creighton ... 9-9
Marquette ... 8-10
Georgetown ... 7-11
DePaul ... 3-15
St. John's ... 1-17

* NCAA Tournament Champion
** NCAA Tournament Participant

Kerry Miller missed the boat last year.
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Predicting the 2016-17 Big East College Basketball Standings - Bleacher Report - August 8, 2016

1. Villanova
2. Xavier
3. Creighton
4. Georgetown
5. Butler
6. Marquette
7. Seton Hall
8. Providence
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

The Big East could legitimately send seven teams to the NCAA tournament.

It looks like Kerry Miller missed the boat again this year, simply because it is highly improbable for a 10-team conference to get seven NCAA bids, and in the unlikely event that happens, it can only happen when certain circumstances arise. Specifically, the three bottom teams have to absorb a hell of a lot of losses in order for the top seven teams to have winning conference records.

Each season, there are 90 regular-season wins and 90 regular season losses to be decided (10 teams each play 18 regular-season games).

If seven teams go 10-8 in conference play, that uses up 70 of the available 90 wins, leaving a total of 20 wins for the three bottom teams.

Last season, the top seven BE teams had 79 wins, the bottom three teams had 11 wins, and the Big East got ‘only’ 5 NCAA bids.

It is instructive to look at three different scenarios for seven Big East teams getting NCAA bids. For illustrative purposes, I’ll post hypothetical Final 2016-17 Standings using Kerry Miller’s predicted order of finish.

Scenario 1 – Top Seven Teams Win 70 Games

Villanova ... 10-8
Xavier ... 10-8
Creighton ... 10-8
Georgetown ... 10-8
Butler ... 10-8
Marquette ... 10-8
Seton Hall ... 10-8
Providence ... 7-11
St. John's ... 7-11
DePaul ... 6-12

Gary Parrish and his top 25 include: #3 Villanova, #5 Xavier, #22 Creighton, and #24 Butler.

NBC sports: #4 Villanova, #13 Xavier, #23 Creighton.

ESPN: #2 Villanova, #9 Xavier, #20 Creighton.

It will now be assumed that Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, and Butler will win enough games to justify their respective predicted 2016-17 rankings, using last season’s Final AP Rankings and BE Conference W-L Records as a guide.

Scenario 2– Top Seven Teams Win 84 Games

Villanova ... 16-2
Xavier ... 14-4
Creighton ... 12-6
Georgetown ... 11-7
Butler ... 11-7
Marquette ... 10-8
Seton Hall ... 10-8
Providence ... 2-16
St. John's ... 2-16
DePaul ... 2-16

That looks a bit harsh. Let’s say the bottom three teams average 3 wins apiece. That takes 3 wins away from the top seven teams, but I can’t take any wins away from Villanova, Xavier, or Creighton because if I do, they won’t keep their predicted 2016-17 rankings. I can’t take any wins away from Marquette or Seton Hall, because a 9-9 conference record might not be good enough for an at-large invitation, so I’ll take one win away from both Georgetown and Butler and give them to Providence and St. Johns:

Scenario 3 – Top Seven Teams Win 82 Games

Villanova ... 16-2
Xavier ... 14-4
Creighton ... 12-6
Georgetown ... 10-8
Butler ... 10-8
Marquette ... 10-8
Seton Hall ... 10-8
Providence ... 3-15
St. John's ... 3-15
DePaul ... 2-16

Still highly improbable. From what I have read, St. John's and DePaul are expected to be a lot better than last year, and I can’t see Providence dropping from 10-8 to 3-15. The bottom three teams in 2016-17 (whoever they are) should at least match the 11 wins by the bottom three teams in 2015-16, leaving only 79 wins for the top seven teams in 2016-17, which resulted in 5 NCAA bids last year.

It is theoretically possible for a 10-team conference to get 7 NCAA Tournament bids, but in order for that to happen, the conference’s best teams can’t finish much above .500 in conference play (see Scenario 1 above).

In this year’s edition of the Big East, the top four or five teams in the final standing should finish well above .500 in conference play, meaning that there won’t be enough conference wins left over to get seven teams into the NCAA tournament.

Disclaimers: The examples posted above are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to endorse Kerry Miller or anyone else’s predictions. My apologies to any Providence, St. John's, or DePaul fans who may be unintentionally offended by the examples above. There is no direct correlation between conference W-L Records and AP Poll results. For the purposes of this post and simplicity, many relevant variables have been omitted, such as non-conference results, SOS, Big East Tournament results, etc.

[Hall2012]

He said could get 7 teams, not will. If you read the whole thing, he actually thinks the Big East will get 6 as he says in his write up for Seton Hall (his 7th place team) that they'll be on the wrong side of the bubble.

I personally agree with 6, but I don't think 7 is unreasonable if the league performs very well in non-conference play.

[DudeAnon]

He said could get 7 teams, not will. If you read the whole thing, he actually thinks the Big East will get 6 as he says in his write up for Seton Hall (his 7th place team) that they'll be on the wrong side of the bubble.

I personally agree with 6, but I don't think 7 is unreasonable if the league performs very well in non-conference play.

Seton Hall as the 7th place team? Did he watch the league at all last year. Whitehead was great but that team was a lot more than just him. I would put Seton Hall 4th behind Creighton.

[gtmoBlue]

He said could get 7 teams, not will. If you read the whole thing, he actually thinks the Big East will get 6 as he says in his write up for Seton Hall (his 7th place team) that they'll be on the wrong side of the bubble.

I personally agree with 6, but I don't think 7 is unreasonable if the league performs very well in non-conference play.

Seton Hall as the 7th place team? Did he watch the league at all last year. Whitehead was great but that team was a lot more than just him. I would put Seton Hall 4th behind Creighton.

Calling JPSchmack... Calling JPSchmack... They are playing your song...
Will JPSchmack pls respond at the white courtesy telephone. Calling JPSchmack.

[milksteak]

He said could get 7 teams, not will. If you read the whole thing, he actually thinks the Big East will get 6 as he says in his write up for Seton Hall (his 7th place team) that they'll be on the wrong side of the bubble.

I personally agree with 6, but I don't think 7 is unreasonable if the league performs very well in non-conference play.

Seton Hall as the 7th place team? Did he watch the league at all last year. Whitehead was great but that team was a lot more than just him. I would put Seton Hall 4th behind Creighton.

I agree. I have them fourth in my preseason picks. They return a ton of experience. SHU would be fighting for the title if Whitehead was coming back.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

1. Villanova
2. Xavier
3. Creighton
4. Georgetown
5. Butler
6. Marquette
7. Seton Hall
8. Providence
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big East, Villanova carry newfound swagger into 2016-17 season – SB Nation – August 15, 2016

MEANINGLESS SUMMER POWER RANKINGS WITH TWITTER-ESQUE SUMMARIES

1. Villanova -- It's been said before, but this might be the best shot we've seen at a repeat national champion in college basketball since Florida achieved the feat exactly a decade ago.

2. Xavier -- Chris Mack has one of the most lethal backcourts in the country. If he can get enough production from his frontcourt, the Musketeers will be right back in the national title discussion for a second straight year.

3. Georgetown -- The Hoyas were one of the most puzzling and disappointing teams of 2015-16. They lose leading scorer D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, but there's still more than enough top-tier talent on this roster for JT III to be able to compete with Villanova and Xavier.

4. Seton Hall -- This would have been a legitimate top 20 team in the nation had Isaiah Whitehead not opted to head to the NBA. Even so, the other four sophomore starters who led the Pirates to their first Big East Tournament title since 1993 are back, and that should be enough for Kevin Willard to keep the program moving forward.

5. Creighton -- Kansas State transfer Marcus Foster and former top 100 recruit Justin Patton should be enough to get the Jays back into the thick of the conference discussion.

6. Marquette -- The Golden Eagles have the best incoming freshman class in the conference and a key transfer in UNLV's Katin Reinhardt, but are still likely a season away from being a legitimate threat to the top of the conference.

7. Butler -- Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones are obviously enormous losses for the program, but in their absence, expect to see a star turn from junior Kelan Martin.

8. Providence -- While there's certainly hope for Providence in the post-Dunn/Bentil era, it's foolish to think that the Friars won't be taking a massive step back in 2016-17.

9. DePaul -- After spending almost a decade finishing in last or tied for last in the final Big East standings, the Blue Demons have now been out of the cellar in back-to-back seasons. Three straight years would make it a streak.

10. St. John's -- There's undoubtedly more talent on this year's roster than there was a season ago, but how well all those new pieces come together will ultimately determine just how much better the Johnnies are.
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Bleacher Report and SB Nation agree on: 1. Villanova, 2. Xavier, 6. Marquette, and 8. Providence. Their predictions for Georgetown, St. John’s, and DePaul differ by only one place. For anyone interested: Atlantic 10 Meaningless Summer Power Rankings – SB Nation – August 3, 2016

[milksteak]

1. Villanova
2. Xavier
3. Creighton
4. Georgetown
5. Butler
6. Marquette
7. Seton Hall
8. Providence
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big East, Villanova carry newfound swagger into 2016-17 season – SB Nation – August 15, 2016

MEANINGLESS SUMMER POWER RANKINGS WITH TWITTER-ESQUE SUMMARIES

1. Villanova -- It's been said before, but this might be the best shot we've seen at a repeat national champion in college basketball since Florida achieved the feat exactly a decade ago.

2. Xavier -- Chris Mack has one of the most lethal backcourts in the country. If he can get enough production from his frontcourt, the Musketeers will be right back in the national title discussion for a second straight year.

3. Georgetown -- The Hoyas were one of the most puzzling and disappointing teams of 2015-16. They lose leading scorer D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, but there's still more than enough top-tier talent on this roster for JT III to be able to compete with Villanova and Xavier.

4. Seton Hall -- This would have been a legitimate top 20 team in the nation had Isaiah Whitehead not opted to head to the NBA. Even so, the other four sophomore starters who led the Pirates to their first Big East Tournament title since 1993 are back, and that should be enough for Kevin Willard to keep the program moving forward.

5. Creighton -- Kansas State transfer Marcus Foster and former top 100 recruit Justin Patton should be enough to get the Jays back into the thick of the conference discussion.

6. Marquette -- The Golden Eagles have the best incoming freshman class in the conference and a key transfer in UNLV's Katin Reinhardt, but are still likely a season away from being a legitimate threat to the top of the conference.

7. Butler -- Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones are obviously enormous losses for the program, but in their absence, expect to see a star turn from junior Kelan Martin.

8. Providence -- While there's certainly hope for Providence in the post-Dunn/Bentil era, it's foolish to think that the Friars won't be taking a massive step back in 2016-17.

9. DePaul -- After spending almost a decade finishing in last or tied for last in the final Big East standings, the Blue Demons have now been out of the cellar in back-to-back seasons. Three straight years would make it a streak.

10. St. John's -- There's undoubtedly more talent on this year's roster than there was a season ago, but how well all those new pieces come together will ultimately determine just how much better the Johnnies are.
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Bleacher Report and SB Nation agree on: 1. Villanova, 2. Xavier, 6. Marquette, and 8. Providence. Their predictions for Georgetown, St. John’s, and DePaul differ by only one place. For anyone interested: Atlantic 10 Meaningless Summer Power Rankings – SB Nation – August 3, 2016

Man. I just don't see any justification for having DePaul anything other than 10th. They're going to be horrible. Worse than last year in my opinion.

[hoyahooligan]

Preseason, I'd switch St. John's and DePaul and creighton and Georgetown.

I think there's a gap between the top 5 and the bottom 5 though, but that's just my opinion.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Athlon Sports 2016-17 Top 25 - August 26, 2016

1. Duke
2. Kentucky
3. Villanova - The Wildcats have a leadership void without Ryan Arcidiacono. Still, huge pieces from the championship run — Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson — are back.
4. Oregon
5. Kansas
6. UNC
7. Virginia
8. Xavier - Trevon Bluiett returns. If Edmond Sumner can become a star, the Muskteers will make Villanova sweat in the Big East again.
9. Arizona
10. Wisconsin
11. Michigan State
12. Indiana
13. Louisville
14. Purdue
15. Gonzaga
16. Connecticut
17. UCLA
18. Creighton - The Bluejays are ready for a post-Doug McDermott rebound year. Maurice Watson is a star, and he’ll get help this year with a healthy lineup and the arrival of Kansas State transfer Marcus Foster.
19. Iowa State
20. Cincinnati
21. Saint Mary's
22. Virginia Tech
23. Dayton
24. Rhode Island
25. Florida State

Others considered: Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, San Diego State, VCU, Wichita State.