Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/25-lgbt-groups-send-letter-to-big-12-urging-it-to-shun-byu-080816

BYU's candidacy into the Big 12 took a hit today. The Big 12 is dealing with enough headaches with Baylor as it currently stands - I'm not sure if the Big 12 Presidents would want to deal with an added migraine dealing with this issue.

If BYU gets snubbed, a Cincinnati/Houston combination jumps into the lead.

The news linked above is now being widely reported, and it is a game-changer. The Big 12 school administrators (along with appropriate legal counsel) will be reviewing this issue in great detail in the coming days and weeks, but there are only three possible outcomes that I can think of:

(1) The Big 12 Presidents change their rules/code of conduct in order to become compatible with BYU’s current policies (highly unlikely).

(2) BYU changes their rules/code of conduct in order to become compatible with the Big 12’s current policies (highly unlikely).

(3) BYU is eliminated as a Big 12 expansion candidate due to the incompatibility between BYU’s policies and the Big 12’s policies.

It is also highly unlikely that Fox and ESPN would agree to a four-school expansion under any circumstances. With BYU out of the running, any plans for a four-school expansion now appear to be dead.

One possible scenario at this point is a compromise between the Big 12, Fox, and ESPN for a two-team expansion (Houston and Cincinnati), with Fox and ESPN pushing hard to pay less than an additional $ 40 million per year to the Big 12 for the two schools added. This would reduce the pay-out to each Big 12 school to less than it current $ 20 million per year, which might just scupper the Big 12’s expansion plans altogether.

Big 12 TV partners push back on expansion – August 1, 2016

The Big 12’s TV partners are pushing back on the conference’s plans to expand.

ESPN and Fox Sports believe that expansion with schools from outside the power five conferences will water down the Big 12 and make it less valuable, not more, sources said. But the Big 12 is financially motivated to add more teams. A clause in the conference’s media deals stipulate that if the Big 12 expands, it would receive pro rata increases in its rights fees.

The original deals pay $2.6 billion over 13 years, or about $20 million per school annually. Expansion by two schools, theoretically, would force ESPN and Fox combined to pay an additional $40 million per year in rights fees. Expansion by four teams could mean another $80 million per year.

Both networks, according to sources, are digging their heels in against paying those kinds of increases based on expansion with schools outside the power five.

That kind of cash grab, sources say, is rubbing ESPN and Fox the wrong way because any new schools would not carry the profile of most power five schools, which is what the networks are paying for.

Network officials are not happy with any plan that depends on steep rights-fee increases, even if such increases are spelled out in the media contracts.

Several options are being considered at the networks’ headquarters.

ESPN and Fox could negotiate smaller rights-fee increases as opposed to the pro rata increases.

If the networks, both of which have encountered some financial challenges in the last year with cutbacks and subscriber losses, decided to staunchly challenge the contracts, they could simply not pay the increases and force the conference to take them to court. ESPN and Fox would argue that the move to expand and charge the TV networks more money does not reflect the spirit of the original deals, which were signed four years ago. The conference, of course, can fall back on its contracts, which spell out pro rata increases.

. . . a risky gamble for all parties concerned - which could take many years to conclude, as the losing side would likely appeal an adverse judgement.

I am very surprised that the lawyers representing Fox and ESPN left the very important issue of future Big 12 expansion to chance, but they obviously did.

The simple insertion of a ‘Prior Approval’ clause in their contract with the Big 12 (i.e. a ‘veto clause’) would have eliminated the current stand-off.

[Bill Marsh]

I have to agree that BYU would appear to be dead in the water as a Big XII expansion candidate. I also agree that the reports that Fox and ESPN are balking at coming up with more money is a game changer. I think we will see some interesting developments, possibly some real surprises.

Specifically, the implications are that TV will determine who the expansion schools will be just as they did with ACC expansion. I believe that in the end, the networks will come up with the dollars but only if they control who the additions are. As a result, throw all previous rumors out the window. It won't be who the Big XII presidents want. If they want expansion, it will be who the networks want and they only care about one thing: markets.


With BYU appearing to be out of the picture, here are the markets of the prospective candidates, ranked by market size:

1. 6.6 mill - Houston
2. 3.7 mill - Connecticut
3. 3.0 mill - USF (Tampa)
4. 2.4 mill - UCF (Orlando)
5. 2.2 mill - Cincinnati
6. 1.3 mill - Memphis

Houston is easily the most desirable market, but will the networks want UH? There's already competition in that market from A&M as well as from the NFL. With that kind of competition, does UH really bring anything more than the league already has from Longhorn fans in Houston? Suddenly the market looks a lot less valuable.

The networks don't care about travel distance for student athletes, so I think that UConn may become the #1 target. The stature of their football program is the major drawback and that's not a small thing, but the networks have watched them successfully build their basketball program program over the past 25 years. They can do the same thing in football. Better opponents will bring attendance back to where it was in Big East days and beyond. The stadium is expandable and facilities are excellent. I think the market of 3.7 million, which is wealthy and which has no instate competition from either another college or from the pros, will just be too tempting.

Let's assume for the moment that I'm right about UConn. This could set off a really interesting chain of events. With a Big XII offer in their pocket, UConn could try to leverage that into an ACC or B1G offer. Both conferences have had their eye on UConn as a future possibility. Would either accelerate their time line and make a preemptive move to prevent the Big XII from locking them up? It could get interesting.

Cincinnati is another interesting case since they've been the leader all along. As much as they have going for them, they have one of the smallest markets on the list - and unlike UCF, they have competition in town from the NFL. Although they get the Big XII into Ohio, it's really only into a corner of Ohio with a school that doesn't have statewide appeal in a state that is dominated by Ohio State. And despite upgraded facilities, their stadium isn't expandable due to the lack of real estate. I have a feeling that their bloom could come off their rose pretty quickly.

That leaves one of the Florida schools as the 2nd addition to go along with UConn and maybe both Florida schools as the top candidates if UConn goes elsewhere.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

I can’t see UConn getting 8 votes under any circumstances.



REPORT: No Team Has 8 Votes for Big 12 Expansion – August 5, 2016

DMN’s Chuck Carlton reports that no one has the eight votes necessary to expand. That can change on a dime and I’d imagine that there will be some horse trading, you vote for this team, I’ll vote for your team. Apparently it is Houston, Cincinnati and BYU in the lead, with the idea of a football only addition is unlikely and “nobody wants it”.

Note that the article linked above was published three days before BYU’s Code of Honor hit the headlines.

If the Presidents of the Big 12 schools decide to expand conference membership, Houston will be in.

This very lengthy article is well worth a read if you have an interest in what is going on behind the scenes in Texas:

Inside the University of Houston's Political Push to Join The Big 12 – The Texas Tribune – August 10, 2016

The groundswell of support for the University of Houston’s bid to join the Big 12 Conference seemed to come out of nowhere.

For two decades, the Cougars' major athletic conference dreams seemed hopeless. Then on July 21, Governor Greg Abbott declared on Twitter that Big 12 expansion was a “non-starter” without UH. Within hours, more state politicians, including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, and leaders of other Texas Big 12 schools were voicing their support, too.

The show of support for UH was surprising and impressive. But it didn’t materialize from nothing. The university's most powerful supporters have urged state leaders to back their bid for months. Aware that college sports and politics are inextricably linked in Texas, university boosters have used friendly political allies, face-to-face lobbying, and campaign contributions to make their case. It seems to be working.

The UH PAC, which is known for aggressively pursuing the university’s interests, has been key. Wilson said the group identified Big 12 membership as one of its top priorities about two years ago. Ever since, its leaders have lobbied more than 50 lawmakers to support their bid. The group has the power of the purse behind it. According to campaign finance records, it has made more than $800,000 worth of political expenditures since 2012.

Perhaps even more important, the UH System’s billionaire board chairman has made his own push. Tilman Fertitta, who owns numerous chain restaurants and casinos, is a powerful figure in the state, having donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to Texas politicians, including more than $350,000 to Governor Greg Abbott.

A decision will likely come in the next few months, with two or four teams added. Or the conference may choose not to expand. Fox and ESPN are reportedly opposed to expansion, and could pressure the conference to stay at 10 teams.

In short, Texas billionaire Tilman Fertitta is Chairman of the Board of the University of Houston, and he has very great influence over Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who has effective control over the votes of the Presidents of 4 of the 10 universities who will be voting on Big 12 expansion.

[DudeAnon]

Not sure if this accounted for yesterday's LGBT stuff about BYU. But right now Vegas has them as the favorites:

https://twitter.com/ChuckCarltonDMN/sta ... 2338723840

Odds on who joins Big 12 next (via http://SportsBettingDime.com )
BYU 5/3
UH 5/2
Cincinnati 5/2
UCF 3/1
Memphis 7/1
UConn 8/1
Col St 8/1
USF 10/1

[cu blujs]

Thought I had read that BYU policies prohibit all pre-marital or extra marital sex, not just LGBT. So, not sure where the discrimination is there. But, I don't really pay attention so I don't know for sure. Perhaps the bigger issues for the league are no alcohol and no games on Sunday.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Thought I had read that BYU policies prohibit all pre-marital or extra marital sex, not just LGBT.

BYU's Honor Code forbids 'homosexual behavior.' That's a Big 12 expansion issue - August 9, 2016

BYU’s Honor Code does not forbid LGBT people from attending, but the latest version does include the following, which is discriminatory by any definition:

Homosexual behavior is inappropriate and violates the Honor Code. Homosexual behavior includes not only sexual relations between members of the same sex, but all forms of physical intimacy that give expression to homosexual feelings.

BYU has a legal right to include this in its Honor Code, just as the Big 12 has a legal right to invite a university that guarantees equal treatment for all students. BYU has made its choice, and the Big 12 will soon make its.

[sciencejay]

Just thought I'd add this: While Colorado State isn't on anyone's short list for B12 expansion, they are busting their arses to get into the P5. New stadium on campus (opens in 2017). New football-only facilities (academic center, training center, training table). They argue that they bring the Denver and northern Colorado market which exceeds 4 million (I think). CU from the Pac12 argues that CSU doesn't bring that big of a market, but they are in-state rivals--can't say I know. Interestingly, in light of the recent posts, one of their main arguments for inclusion was as a travel partner for BYU who obviously is/was a leading candidate.

[Bill Marsh]

Just thought I'd add this: While Colorado State isn't on anyone's short list for B12 expansion, they are busting their arses to get into the P5. New stadium on campus (opens in 2017). New football-only facilities (academic center, training center, training table). They argue that they bring the Denver and northern Colorado market which exceeds 4 million (I think). CU from the Pac12 argues that CSU doesn't bring that big of a market, but they are in-state rivals--can't say I know. Interestingly, in light of the recent posts, one of their main arguments for inclusion was as a travel partner for BYU who obviously is/was a leading candidate.

Lots of teams claim to bring a market. I think it's always important to look at how big the market is and who else they share it with.

CSU shares the Colorado market with the University of Colorado and with the NFL Broncos. CSU is 65 miles outside of Denver in Fort Collins. University of Colorado in Boulder is only 29 miles from Denver and has a long history as the premier college program in the state. CSU has a lot of catching up to do. While the state of Colorado has been growing its population, I'm not sure that it can support a 2nd college program out in the boonies in addition to an NFL franchise.

[sciencejay]

When I was a kid, Ft. Collins was a ways north of the Denver metro area. Now, they are contiguous. You are right that CU in Boulder is closer to the bulk of the metro area, but Ft. Collins just isn't that much farther. CSU's student population is now ~5,000 more than CU's. Anyway, I'm not arguing that CSU really does bring the Denver market. My point was that that's what CSU is arguing (of course they would), and they are investing massive amounts of $$ into their facilities, etc. to give themselves a shot at the prize (P5 membership). They very well could end up like UConn--investing a ton of money into a program that hemorrhages it out the back side.

[Bill Marsh]

When I was a kid, Ft. Collins was a ways north of the Denver metro area. Now, they are contiguous. You are right that CU in Boulder is closer to the bulk of the metro area, but Ft. Collins just isn't that much farther. CSU's student population is now ~5,000 more than CU's. Anyway, I'm not arguing that CSU really does bring the Denver market. My point was that that's what CSU is arguing (of course they would), and they are investing massive amounts of $$ into their facilities, etc. to give themselves a shot at the prize (P5 membership). They very well could end up like UConn--investing a ton of money into a program that hemorrhages it out the back side.

Thanks for the insights.