Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Bill Marsh]

I agree that the Big XII's fate is tied to Texas but where is Oklahoma out the door to exactly?

No idea.

But the OU pres David Boren has made it clear that he is totally dissatisfied with the way things are being run in the Big XII. That has led to a lot of expansion talk, but OU insiders seem to think that the,even of dissatisfaction is so deep that it is only a matter of time before the Sooners bolt.

Could OU stay? I think that it would take a lot of concessions from Texas and a rethinking of how things are done in the conference as well as expansion with the right candidates. The LHN seems to be a failure so far,so perhaps this could happen.

Knowing how slowly this kind of change happens and how entrenched the self-serving people at Texas are, I'm expecting that the Sooners are as good as gone - especially when I read reports like the rumor in this thread, which suggests some major realignment may come sooner than we expected.

Although there have been rumors of OU to the B1G, I think the more likely landing spot is the SEC with the PAC-12 also a possibility. Pairing them with Kansas could be the outcome unless Texas jumps on board and is willing to make concessions.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/sportsextra/johnklein/john-klein-no-news-is-actually-good-news-for-big/article_4425c70a-7c17-5697-9435-4579f37051fe.html

I think OU wants to stay in the B12 but obviously wants 12 teams. No one can agree on what two to ask and if the two they really want would even accept.

Good find. Thanks for the link. Much appreciated.

No doubt that OU would prefer to stay where they are. Noreen's frustration with the rest of the conference has been palpable. Will he be satisfied with the "kick the can down the road" strategy? And is it even feasible?

The article is obviously referring to ACC members potentially becoming available. They would still have to deal with a current $52+ million, soon to grow to $60 million, exit fee. They'd better have a lot to offer besides long travel distances. Although the article refers to lucrative TV money in the Big XII, every independent article I've read is pessimistic about the long term prospects of TV revenue of the Big XII. Not only does it not match the SEC nor have the long term growth potential of the B1G, they will renegotiate at arise that will likely be less favorable than when they negotiated last time. In addition, they are renegotiating without Missouri, Colorado, and Texas A&M, 3 of their biggest markets in the past.

The other factor is Texas. With the disappointment that the LHN has been, it's unknown whether they will stay pat. They certainly have better opportunities whenever they want to exercise their option. Will OU wait around in hopes of something better, in hopes of not being victimized again? Boren has to know that if he seizes the initiative before other dominoes fall, he has a much better chance of controlling his destiny and landing in a better place than if he sits on the sidelines waiting for others to decide his fate.

I may be reading the tea leaves wrong, but I think that OU is out the door if the Big XII doesn't come up with an improvement plan soon.

[_lh]

As the article suggests, the problem with B12 expansion is that there are not really any good viable expansion candidates. Certainly not that enough current members can agree on. Oklahoma wants 12 teams but adding two AAC teams to get there seems to be a non starter for Texas and many others. The questions then becomes, why expand at all at this time. They got a team in the football playoff with 10 teams. They can have a conference title game with 10 teams and basketball is thriving at 10.

I understand that some will say you expand to ensure your conference survives if current members leave for another conference. Outside of OU and Texas, I don't see any current members as prime targets for the SEC, B10 or PAC. Having 12 teams is not going to save the B12 if either Texas or OU leaves.

Boren may be coming around to being patient on expansion as their current options aren't great. Both OU and Texas will be fine if the B12 is blown up.

[Bill Marsh]

As the article suggests, the problem with B12 expansion is that there are not really any good viable expansion candidates. Certainly not that enough current members can agree on. Oklahoma wants 12 teams but adding two AAC teams to get there seems to be a non starter for Texas and many others. The questions then becomes, why expand at all at this time. They got a team in the football playoff with 10 teams. They can have a conference title game with 10 teams and basketball is thriving at 10.

I understand that some will say you expand to ensure your conference survives if current members leave for another conference. Outside of OU and Texas, I don't see any current members as prime targets for the SEC, B10 or PAC. Having 12 teams is not going to save the B12 if either Texas or OU leaves.

Boren may be coming around to being patient on expansion as their current options aren't great. Both OU and Texas will be fine if the B12 is blown up.

Good points.

The alternative question to "why expand at all at this time" is "why stay with the Big XII at this time"? Without a viable expansion plan, the answer for Boren and OU may well be "no reason to stay" since they appear to have better options.

[_lh]

But do they have better options? Do they have an invite from the SEC or Big 10? Can they just up and leave long time rivals behind? Can they go any where without OSU?

[Bill Marsh]

But do they have better options? Do they have an invite from the SEC or Big 10? Can they just up and leave long time rivals behind? Can they go any where without OSU?

$64,000 question

From what I read, there's a spot for them in the SEC any time they want it. The fly in the ointment is that they have to come without OSU.

But, who knows? What I've read may be completely unreliable.

[gtmoBlue]

Sorry to intrude on your (private) conversation ih and Bill, but Oklahoma and the fellas in the Big 12 will wait n watch. Seems only a very few care what transpires in the corn n wheat belt. After the lions feed (B1G and SEC) on the ACC, the Big 12 will feast on the leftovers. If they don't want to be patient, they can take some AAC teams. Neither the B1G nor the SEC want another B12 team...not when better strategic additions ly in the ACC. ESPN is talking in terms of converting the failed LHN into a Big12 Network. That should enable that network to move out of the red and into the black.
Ho hum...

[Bill Marsh]

Sorry to intrude on your (private) conversation ih and Bill, but Oklahoma and the fellas in the Big 12 will wait n watch. Seems only a very few care what transpires in the corn n wheat belt. After the lions feed (B1G and SEC) on the ACC, the Big 12 will feast on the leftovers. If they don't want to be patient, they can take some AAC teams. Neither the B1G nor the SEC want another B12 team...not when better strategic additions ly in the ACC. ESPN is talking in terms of converting the failed LHN into a Big12 Network. That should enable that network to move out of the red and into the black.
Ho hum...

Not Texas? Not Oklahoma?

ACC schools will pay $60 million exit fees to leave the ACC for the unstable Big XII?

[DeltaV]

Sorry to intrude on your (private) conversation ih and Bill, but Oklahoma and the fellas in the Big 12 will wait n watch. Seems only a very few care what transpires in the corn n wheat belt. After the lions feed (B1G and SEC) on the ACC, the Big 12 will feast on the leftovers. If they don't want to be patient, they can take some AAC teams. Neither the B1G nor the SEC want another B12 team...not when better strategic additions ly in the ACC. ESPN is talking in terms of converting the failed LHN into a Big12 Network. That should enable that network to move out of the red and into the black.
Ho hum...

Not Texas? Not Oklahoma?

ACC schools will pay $60 million exit fees to leave the ACC for the unstable Big XII?

The assumption in this case is that the ACC is essentially disbanded as a result of a B1G/SEC raid.

Does anyone know if there is any sort of 'breakup' clause in the ACC bylaws? Wasn't there some version of that in the old Big East bylaws that the Catholic 7 thought they could possibly use so that we wouldn't have to pay exit fees to what is now the AAC?

[alduflux]

Wasn't there some version of that in the old Big East bylaws that the Catholic 7 thought they could possibly use so that we wouldn't have to pay exit fees to what is now the AAC?

The old Big East did have a breakup clause that required a 2/3 vote. At the time, the Big East only had ten voting members, so the Catholic 7 had the power to break up the conference.

[alduflux]

But do they have better options? Do they have an invite from the SEC or Big 10? Can they just up and leave long time rivals behind? Can they go any where without OSU?

From what I understand the following is likely true. OU likely has open invites to the SEC and probably also Pac 12 and B1G. However, that invite is for them alone, not OSU. OU is more or less, the same as Nebraska only they have baggage (OSU). Nebraska had no such baggage.

Can they leave OSU behind? The answer is almost certainly yes, but they can't leave OSU high and dry without a good home (Pac-12, B1G, SEC). A Big-12 that does not include OU is not likely to keep its anchor (Texas) for long, thus imploding the Big-12 as any kind of power conference. Realistically, OU is stuck with OSU.

Ultimately, no state school acts independent of its fellow instate institutions. Any instate institution that improves itself is only allowed to do so if the benefit outweighs the negative for the other instate institution. No one is cutting off the left hand to strengthen the right hand.