Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Bill Marsh]

Regardless of what happens with the ACC, everything in the future of the Big XII hinges on what Texas does. Since Oklahoma is apparently on its way out the door, does Texas really want to hang around with the rest of that group without the Sooners?

Every one of the other 4 P5 conferences has been a rumored landing spot for the Longhorns. So, Ithink we'll just have to wait to see what Texas does. They've been pretty quiet lately. If there's any truth to the B1G - ACC rumor, it suggests that Texas has no interest in the B1G. They likely wouldn't have any interest in a decimated ACC either. That leaves the SEC or the PAC-12. Such a move would also leave the Big XII lifeless.

[_lh]

Regardless of what happens with the ACC, everything in the future of the Big XII hinges on what Texas does. Since Oklahoma is apparently on its way out the door, does Texas really want to hang around with the rest of that group without the Sooners?

Every one of the other 4 P5 conferences has been a rumored landing spot for the Longhorns. So, Ithink we'll just have to wait to see what Texas does. They've been pretty quiet lately. If there's any truth to the B1G - ACC rumor, it suggests that Texas has no interest in the B1G. They likely wouldn't have any interest in a decimated ACC either. That leaves the SEC or the PAC-12. Such a move would also leave the Big XII lifeless.

I agree that the Big XII's fate is tied to Texas but where is Oklahoma out the door to exactly?

[billyjack]

As a VT alum, I don't know what to think about a B1G raid of the ACC but it mostly smells fishy to me.

Considering the political muscle that was flexed within the state of Virginia to get VT in the ACC despite UVA's objections (the governor was involved), I have a hard time believing that UVA will be able to easily make that move. Now maybe 12 years after the fact a change in the political scene and the amount of money being bandied about makes this rumor realistic... plus if there's an offer on the table for VT from the SEC, maybe that changes things a bit. However, I think political decision-makers within the state would make it extremely difficult for UVA to move to the B1G if it left VT out in the cold with less financial security. That's in addition to the $50 million exit fee.

The only thing I could see making VT hesitate joining the SEC is for academic reasons - one of the big selling points for VT's move to the ACC was to raise its academic profile and that's why it likes being in the ACC so much. There's a few other peripheral issues with the SEC that might make VT hesitate as well. That mostly boils down to Olympic sports programs like field hockey, women's lacrosse, men's soccer & wrestling (a blossoming national power) that might be left out in the cold.

One other thing I'll speak to about the ACC that's been bandied about in this thread - I think there's little chance of any ACC school ever going to the Big East. The obvious main reason for this is football. Just because Wake Forest, Boston College or Duke are not perennial powers within the conference, they still have invested heavily in football infrastructure. Duke is in the middle of a $100 million renovation project of their football stadium. Boston College has just announced $200 million in athletics facility improvements, including plans for a long-needed indoor practice facility. And because these are private schools, it's mostly all through private donations. Alumni aren't going to allow an athletic department to just bail on the sport because of the sheer dollar amounts many have given to support football in the first place. Really, the only thing that I could see causing athletics programs to ax football is declining interest/participation in the sport due to long-term health effects.

Great first post HUSTLE.

[billyjack]

I could change my mind of course, but to me, I like the 10 of us as we are. And if we want to expand, I still like the idea of going with some of our current expansion candidates. The 10 of us took a big risk and built the current Big East with our brains and talent.

So in the impossible scenario where some ACC teams are available, it's not appealing in my mind to toss in Wake and BC into the Big East mix... these 2 schools combined to go 2-34 last year in-conference, plus they were part of a group that wanted to see the 10 of us destroyed. There really is no sizzle in adding Wake, and BC is horrible... and the 17 remaining BC hoops fans would act like they're doing us a favor.

I'd rather that we add a hungry school (the regular candidates that we always list) looking to build and grow their hoops.

[DeltaV]

I could change my mind of course, but to me, I like the 10 of us as we are. And if we want to expand, I still like the idea of going with some of our current expansion candidates. The 10 of us took a big risk and built the current Big East with our brains and talent.

So in the impossible scenario where some ACC teams are available, it's not appealing in my mind to toss in Wake and BC into the Big East mix... these 2 schools combined to go 2-34 last year in-conference, plus they were part of a group that wanted to see the 10 of us destroyed. There really is no sizzle in adding Wake, and BC is horrible... and the 17 remaining BC hoops fans would act like they're doing us a favor.

I'd rather that we add a hungry school (the regular candidates that we always list) looking to build and grow their hoops.

The reason I liked WF is the same reason I've been a fan of Davidson, despite their small size...i think there is a lot to gain by moving south into the Carolinas. The B1G seems to agree, along with the SEC... Alot of the chatter seems to involve getting into the North Carolina market, and even a diminished WF would be a better option than a Davidson, or other schools like SLU, Richmond.

Now, after looking at the potentially available schools, I see that there's just enough schools to fill up a relevant, football playing conference without embarrassing themselves by adding directional schools, so I agree that they're very unlikely to ever join us. Still, stranger things have happened.

[Bill Marsh]

Regardless of what happens with the ACC, everything in the future of the Big XII hinges on what Texas does. Since Oklahoma is apparently on its way out the door, does Texas really want to hang around with the rest of that group without the Sooners?

Every one of the other 4 P5 conferences has been a rumored landing spot for the Longhorns. So, Ithink we'll just have to wait to see what Texas does. They've been pretty quiet lately. If there's any truth to the B1G - ACC rumor, it suggests that Texas has no interest in the B1G. They likely wouldn't have any interest in a decimated ACC either. That leaves the SEC or the PAC-12. Such a move would also leave the Big XII lifeless.

I agree that the Big XII's fate is tied to Texas but where is Oklahoma out the door to exactly?

No idea.

But the OU pres David Boren has made it clear that he is totally dissatisfied with the way things are being run in the Big XII. That has led to a lot of expansion talk, but OU insiders seem to think that the,even of dissatisfaction is so deep that it is only a matter of time before the Sooners bolt.

Could OU stay? I think that it would take a lot of concessions from Texas and a rethinking of how things are done in the conference as well as expansion with the right candidates. The LHN seems to be a failure so far,so perhaps this could happen.

Knowing how slowly this kind of change happens and how entrenched the self-serving people at Texas are, I'm expecting that the Sooners are as good as gone - especially when I read reports like the rumor in this thread, which suggests some major realignment may come sooner than we expected.

Although there have been rumors of OU to the B1G, I think the more likely landing spot is the SEC with the PAC-12 also a possibility. Pairing them with Kansas could be the outcome unless Texas jumps on board and is willing to make concessions.

[Bill Marsh]

I could change my mind of course, but to me, I like the 10 of us as we are. And if we want to expand, I still like the idea of going with some of our current expansion candidates. The 10 of us took a big risk and built the current Big East with our brains and talent.

So in the impossible scenario where some ACC teams are available, it's not appealing in my mind to toss in Wake and BC into the Big East mix... these 2 schools combined to go 2-34 last year in-conference, plus they were part of a group that wanted to see the 10 of us destroyed. There really is no sizzle in adding Wake, and BC is horrible... and the 17 remaining BC hoops fans would act like they're doing us a favor.

I'd rather that we add a hungry school (the regular candidates that we always list) looking to build and grow their hoops.

The reason I liked WF is the same reason I've been a fan of Davidson, despite their small size...i think there is a lot to gain by moving south into the Carolinas. The B1G seems to agree, along with the SEC... Alot of the chatter seems to involve getting into the North Carolina market, and even a diminished WF would be a better option than a Davidson, or other schools like SLU, Richmond.

Now, after looking at the potentially available schools, I see that there's just enough schools to fill up a relevant, football playing conference without embarrassing themselves by adding directional schools, so I agree that they're very unlikely to ever join us. Still, stranger things have happened.

Yes, and not only are there enough schools to fill up a relevant football conference but that's even without turning to former Big East members like UConn and Cincy, who would also be options for them.

Another factor that would inhibit the movement of ACC members to any other conference except to one like the B1G is the ungodly exit fees they would incur. After Maryland left, the ACC increased its exit penalty to an amount equivalent to triple the amount of the conference's operating budget in the year that the member was leaving. The last ACC operating budget I've seen was $17.5 million, and I expect it's gone up since then. But even at that, the exit fee would be $52.5 million. Only if a team were to leave with the promise of revenues comparable to the B1G or the SEC would a school be able to absorb that. Even the $32 million that Maryland paid after taking the conference to court was a tough nut - especially since I believe they're not get full member payouts for their first few years in the B1G.

[alduflux]

I've followed conference realignment for a long time and I believe the following to be true. Just my opinion.

I do not believe the B1G will have twenty teams after this summer. (I mean an announced twenty. Not a literal twenty for the 2016 football season)

No one is leaving the B1G or SEC. Vandy and Northwestern are safe.

Basketball carries little to no weight when the Power 5 expand and/or cannibalize each other.

The ACC is way more powerful then the Big-12. The reason the B1G is targeting ACC schools is because the Big-12 only has one school the B1G would want [Texas, (and Oklahoma under certain circumstances)]. If the ACC gets raided, they will then target Big-12 schools for poaching.

Texas, UNC, and ND will always have an open invitation to any conference they want either now or in the future. Those schools don't move until they want to. Those schools do not have to "act first" to protect themselves. No conference would turn away any of those schools in a vacuum. However, strings are attached to those schools. With ND it's football independence, or their perception of it. With Texas and UNC it's finding their little ugly sister (Texas Tech, NC State..etc) a rich husband to take care of them (SEC, PAC-12). Those schools have serious political hurdles that prevent them from leaving a fellow in-state school high and dry.

Every Big-12 school not named Texas would leave for the B1G/Pac/SEC (and probably ACC also) if given an invite.

Florida St wants out of the ACC, but only if it means moving up to the B1G or SEC.

Oklahoma wants to move but has to find little sister Okie st. a husband.

UCONN will be moving up after the next round of expansion (if that expansion happens). Their new conference may be the leftover Power 5 conference. None the less, it will be an upgrade from the AAC.

Kansas is in real long term trouble and could end up in the same place UCONN is now if Texas ever decides to leave the Big-12.

[H.U.S.T.L.E.]

Great first post HUSTLE.

Thanks billyjack. I've lurked for a while and figured that the ACC is in my wheelhouse, so I might as well contribute. Just to give everyone a little bit of background on myself...

I grew up in Richmond and was fortunate enough to ballboy a bunch of University of Richmond games during Beilein's and Wainwright's head coaching tenures. My best friend is from a family of UR alumni - his uncle worked on the scorer's table and his grandfather was the head statistician for 50 years. I have lots of great memories from that time and was fortunate enough to be so close to a bunch of guys who turned out to be NBA players: David West from Xavier, Jameer Nelson & Delonte West during their St. Joe's years, and Hakim Warrick in a NIT game in 2002. I was at VT during the high points of Seth Greenberg's tenure (well, at least that one year we made the tournament!) and during my final year at school, watched my hometown go crazy for VCU when they made their 2011 Final 4 run. Since then, my dad had season tickets for a few years to VCU games, so I've been lucky to see lots of good basketball.

As proud as I would be to see either school from my hometown in the Big East, I don't really have a dog in the fight. Basketball is my first love though, so I've always had an affinity for the Big East and all the great games & players the conference has produced over the years.

[Bill Marsh]

I've followed conference realignment for a long time and I believe the following to be true. Just my opinion.

I do not believe the B1G will have twenty teams after this summer. (I mean an announced twenty. Not a literal twenty for the 2016 football season)

No one is leaving the B1G or SEC. Vandy and Northwestern are safe.

Basketball carries little to no weight when the Power 5 expand and/or cannibalize each other.

The ACC is way more powerful then the Big-12. The reason the B1G is targeting ACC schools is because the Big-12 only has one school the B1G would want [Texas, (and Oklahoma under certain circumstances)]. If the ACC gets raided, they will then target Big-12 schools for poaching.

Texas, UNC, and ND will always have an open invitation to any conference they want either now or in the future. Those schools don't move until they want to. Those schools do not have to "act first" to protect themselves. No conference would turn away any of those schools in a vacuum. However, strings are attached to those schools. With ND it's football independence, or their perception of it. With Texas and UNC it's finding their little ugly sister (Texas Tech, NC State..etc) a rich husband to take care of them (SEC, PAC-12). Those schools have serious political hurdles that prevent them from leaving a fellow in-state school high and dry.

Every Big-12 school not named Texas would leave for the B1G/Pac/SEC (and probably ACC also) if given an invite.

Florida St wants out of the ACC, but only if it means moving up to the B1G or SEC.

Oklahoma wants to move but has to find little sister Okie st. a husband.

UCONN will be moving up after the next round of expansion (if that expansion happens). Their new conference may be the leftover Power 5 conference. None the less, it will be an upgrade from the AAC.

Kansas is in real long term trouble and could end up in the same place UCONN is now if Texas ever decides to leave the Big-12.

Thank you for such a comprehensive post. Greatly appreciate the thoughts.