Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[xusandy]

Buncha folks posting in this thread with a LOT of time on their hands, playing endless what-if games with each other. Well, these speculations do fill the down time between seasons. But the obvious reality on realignment is that the BE is not driving the bus, and is arguably not even on the bus. I like to think we're riding in the limo in the next lane over --- in the enviable position of getting richer and richer as we cruise along with 10 like-minded friends, and so we can sit back, sip our favorite beverages, and watch the football bus careen wildly down the highway. If/when the bus crashes and the proverbial sh*t hits the fan, we just might find an attractive opportunity or 2 among the survivors (Vandy seems like a pretty good fit, plus maybe Duke or Wake, etc.), but then again we might not find anyone we want to pick up, and the bus might not even crash. Ever since the BE was formed 3+ years ago, I've been waiting for SLU (obvious great fit, basketball program quality notwithstanding) and one other school to be invited in, but now I think the smarter strategy is to just wait and watch. You can make mine a rum drink, but forget the little paper umbrella, please.

[gtmoBlue]

If the ACC loses 6 members it could have a negative impact on the Big East. In addition to adding UConn, Cincy, and Memphis they may poach Nova, Georgetown, and less likely SJU (for MSG and an attempt to hold the ACC tournament there). Yes I know football drives the bus but they'd be losing their best basketball schools and I don't see 6 AAC candidates worthy of joining the ACC. It was rumored a few years ago Nova, Georgetown and SJU had interest from the ACC, and if the ACC lost 6 major basketball programs it could happen.

And yes I know there's plenty of reasons why this wouldn't happen but believe it would be a possibility.

Without the 6 conjectured loses from the ACC, the remaining nine schools would not have the same attraction for Nova, Georgetown and St. John's. Furthermore, those three would be exhibiting an extremely short memory in recreating the situation they (along with four other Basketball-centric schools) left just 3+years ago!

In addition, despite the current smarmy coaching situations at Louisville, I suspect the Cardinals would be "ripe" for the picking by the Big 12 if they ever decide to go to 12 (possibly along with BYU). Heck, even WITH Louisville, that depleted version of the ACC would only have two members (Syracuse and Louisville) who traditionally rank within the top tier of D-1 College Basketball. Nova, G-town and St. John's would do well to stay with 7 other schools that share mutual visions and whose basketball is easily on a par with the remaining members of the ravaged ACC.

Fair points, but all it'd take is Nova or Georgetown agreeing and the other schools would follow. Why would they follow with everything that happened 3 years ago? It's simple, $. ACC would pay a lot more than the current Big East contract. Basketball only schools wouldn't receive as much as the football schools, but ESPN could still pay multiple times what Fox is paying. By doing this ESPN would again blow up the Big East and this time Fox.

As much as we in the BE might like to think our teams are worthy...the potential scenarios of a raid on the ACC is solely about football and expanding footprints in new regions. If the Big would take 6 (including a non research accredited FSU and a weak football school in Duke), you can rest assured that the SEC would take 2 in NCST and VT to expand its reach. The Big 12 would pick from the rest. At a minimum 8 teams would be grabbed, 10 if you include FSU and Duke. As for the SEC looking at the Big12?? That wouldn't make sense...you attack and kill the weakest target - in this case the ACC. Additionally, the SEC has longed to get a foothold in NC and Virginia for years.

The 5-7 leftover teams would be looking to survive...It is here that the BE might choose to grab 2 or more of the leftover private schools. If the ACC chose to rebuild...it would be with lesser football schools from the AAC, CUSA, and A-10 - in order to salvage whatever they could from the old ESPN contract. If we look at the contracts from the 3 conferences mentioned...it is a drastic fall off from the current ACC contract. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 million/yr per school or less. A new, reconfigured ACC would only make in the neighborhood of the AAC/CUSA in terms of any new contract. Big East schools don't fit the criteria in a rebuilding ACC, as their football level is below the AAC/CUSA teams. No one would be calling on G'twn or 'Nova to join them.

It makes a better argument for the remaining 3-5 leftover ACC teams to join the AAC or CUSA.

[adoraz]

Gtmo- if the Big Ten becomes 20 teams then I'd think what's left of the ACC would try to approach that number. I'd think rather than dilute their brand by becoming AAC 2.0 with lower tier AAC teams they'd consider a few Big East teams. Adding a Georgetown doesn't add anything in terms of football but it also doesn't take anything away from the conference. It helps basketball.

Again I think all of this, including the original rumor, are very unlikely. I'm just saying if the ACC was interested in Nova, Georgetown and SJU a few years ago then an ACC half the size of the current would be too. ESPN would have an incentive also for killing off the current Big East. Anything to hurt Fox.

[Xudash]

Gtmo- if the Big Ten becomes 20 teams then I'd think what's left of the ACC would try to approach that number. I'd think rather than dilute their brand by becoming AAC 2.0 with lower tier AAC teams they'd consider a few Big East teams. Adding a Georgetown doesn't add anything in terms of football but it also doesn't take anything away from the conference. It helps basketball.

Again I think all of this, including the original rumor, are very unlikely. I'm just saying if the ACC was interested in Nova, Georgetown and SJU a few years ago then an ACC half the size of the current would be too. ESPN would have an incentive also for killing off the current Big East. Anything to hurt Fox.

adoraz, a few thoughts, and with no intent of being argumentative:

1. The leftover ACC schools approaching a 20 member conference following a post-B1G raid would only make sense if a TV partner sees value in doing that. Given the nature of what's left over at that point and what would be available to add at that point, chances are pretty good that the TV-supplied numerator wouldn't go around enough for the 20 that would populate the denominator; the per school payout scenario would be problematic.

2. The ACC being interested in Nova, Georgetown and SJU at one point - an "if" as you put it - was probably speculation at the time, but certainly has no credence now. These decisions are being made exclusively and entirely for reasons having to do with football. Realignment decisions from here will be even more severe and much more about football. A highly successful basketball-centric conference already exists. It's called the Big East. The ACC in any form, assuming it survives, will remain focused on solving for football and therefore all sports first and foremost.

3. ESPN can have whatever ESPN conjures up as an incentive for itself, but, in the meantime, it probably will now pay more attention to realigning its Income Statement. ESPN presently is in a hot financial mess from all indications. ESPN is in no position to kill off the Big East as it presently exists.

[DeltaV]

Buncha folks posting in this thread with a LOT of time on their hands, playing endless what-if games with each other.

Guilty.

You can make mine a rum drink, but forget the little paper umbrella, please.

I'll be the guy drinking microbrews and insulting everyone drinking coors/miller/bud. Yuengling is ok though.

Part of me thinks it would be fun to pull a few of the private football schools in, but agree that they're very unlikely to do so. I do wonder, though, if some schools would look at our tight nit group and seek the emulate that instead of the 'monster conference' idea. If a post mega-raid core of 'former' ACC teams knew they weren't going to get a huge contract, why would they dilute what money they do get? I think once you get past the obvious pickups from AAC (UConn, UC, UL, and maybe Temple and Memphis), you're really not getting any more from the addition.

Imagine if we had a 10 team competitor conference...even though we'd have to split the attention, I think it would be a great way to keep national casual viewer eyes on us smaller northeastern schools. A Big East - New ACC challenge...headline the first year with Georgetown-Syracuse, Providence-UConn, Villanova-Pitt, Xavier-Cinci...those would be some epic matchups. Better than FSU-Minnesota or Clemson-Texas A&M, thats for sure.

[adoraz]

Gtmo- if the Big Ten becomes 20 teams then I'd think what's left of the ACC would try to approach that number. I'd think rather than dilute their brand by becoming AAC 2.0 with lower tier AAC teams they'd consider a few Big East teams. Adding a Georgetown doesn't add anything in terms of football but it also doesn't take anything away from the conference. It helps basketball.

Again I think all of this, including the original rumor, are very unlikely. I'm just saying if the ACC was interested in Nova, Georgetown and SJU a few years ago then an ACC half the size of the current would be too. ESPN would have an incentive also for killing off the current Big East. Anything to hurt Fox.

adoraz, a few thoughts, and with no intent of being argumentative:

1. The leftover ACC schools approaching a 20 member conference following a post-B1G raid would only make sense if a TV partner sees value in doing that. Given the nature of what's left over at that point and what would be available to add at that point, chances are pretty good that the TV-supplied numerator wouldn't go around enough for the 20 that would populate the denominator; the per school payout scenario would be problematic.

2. The ACC being interested in Nova, Georgetown and SJU at one point - an "if" as you put it - was probably speculation at the time, but certainly has no credence now. These decisions are being made exclusively and entirely for reasons having to do with football. Realignment decisions from here will be even more severe and much more about football. A highly successful basketball-centric conference already exists. It's called the Big East. The ACC in any form, assuming it survives, will remain focused on solving for football and therefore all sports first and foremost.

3. ESPN can have whatever ESPN conjures up as an incentive for itself, but, in the meantime, it probably will now pay more attention to realigning its Income Statement. ESPN presently is in a hot financial mess from all indications. ESPN is in no position to kill off the Big East as it presently exists.

1. True but it wouldn't be out of the question that they'd want to be the same size as the Big Ten, or at least 16 teams like they currently are.
2. Don't think this was speculation, i know the 3 schools had discussions with the ACC. To your point the ACC didn't add them because they weren't football schools, but that version of the ACC was a 16 team league and a powerhouse in basketball. The hypothetical version we're talking about would be half that size with the best basketball schools gone.
3. ESPN is in a mess but they wouldn't be taking on an entire league. They'd be cherry picking the teams with the most value. This is much easier to do financially and they could pay, for example, twice what Fox is paying these schools. The Big East's current TV contract is also based on schools not worth as much, like DePaul. Had the Big East been 10 teams of similar caliber to Nova and Georgetown the contract would've been much more. So ESPN could easily take on a few schools without hurting their pockets and as a bonus would hurt their rival.

I don't forsee any of our teams going anywhere, but if a conference is blown up like that I think it'd be more likely the leftover schools would poach the Big East rather than the Big East poaching the leftover schools like most people here think. At least, I'm saying it could go either way. It won't be as simple as football schools taking a massive paycut and dropping football to join the Big East.

[gtmoBlue]

If the rumor has any merit - and - should the B1G again raid the ACC (for 6 teams no less). Their main competition - the SEC and Big12, would have little choice but to join in and attempt to keep pace. The SEC and Big12 could each take 2 or take more. So the 3 competitor leagues could only take 8-10 OR they might take all 15. The rest of the div1 leagues only factor in "if" there are leftovers. It's a football thing and non-football five leagues can't play. The ACC takes a massive pay cut, at the precise moment a raid occurs. When the conference loses 50-60% (or more) of its' members, the tv/cable partner turns off the money spigot. The ACC becomes the AAC - poor.

If there were a few leftover teams, the BE could negotiate with any private school left out of the raid -whether it was a football weak sister (WF, BC) or middling team (S'cuse, Duke). None are football powerhouses, so they park their football wherever they can. In all likelihood there would be no leftovers. The ACC would be no more - caput, fini, magno.

[Bill Marsh]

If the rumor has any merit - and - should the B1G again raid the ACC (for 6 teams no less). Their main competition - the SEC and Big12, would have little choice but to join in and attempt to keep pace. The SEC and Big12 could each take 2 or take more. So the 3 competitor leagues could only take 8-10 OR they might take all 15. The rest of the div1 leagues only factor in "if" there are leftovers. It's a football thing and non-football five leagues can't play. The ACC takes a massive pay cut, at the precise moment a raid occurs. When the conference loses 50-60% (or more) of its' members, the tv/cable partner turns off the money spigot. The ACC becomes the AAC - poor.

If there were a few leftover teams, the BE could negotiate with any private school left out of the raid -whether it was a football weak sister (WF, BC) or middling team (S'cuse, Duke). None are football powerhouses, so they park their football wherever they can. In all likelihood there would be no leftovers. The ACC would be no more - caput, fini, magno.

Or . . .

The Big XII gets raided. Once Texas and Oklahoma decide what they want to do, there's no strength left in the Big XII. Frankly the remnants of the ACC headed by Miami, Clemson, and Louisville - none of whom would likely be of interest to the SEC - is a stronger package than the Big XII without Texas and Oklahoma.

If the proposed raid of the ACC were to occur, I think it's far more likely that the successor conference would be some sort of merger of the ACC and the Big XII rather than ACC - Big East. In a merged ACC/Big XII, the ACC remnants would have the stronger hand because they have the markets.

Imagine a world in which Texas and Oklahoma go to the SEC and are then joined by VA Tech and NC State. West Virginia would bolt the Big XII in a heart beat to join the ACC, leaving the ACC looking like this:

Miami
Clemson
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Louisville
Pitt
Syracuse
BC

Sort of looks like the old Big East Football. Meanwhile the remnants of the Big XII would be:

Kansas
K State
Iowa State
OK State
Texas Texh
TCU
Baylor

Not a lot to work with in that group. But if you throw in BYU, there would be a 16 team conference with 8 team East/West divisions.

[DeltaV]

The biggest factor will probably be which conference gets hit first: ACC or B12. Right now the ACC is stronger and a tougher nut to crack, but has the more desirable schools and markets... Does anyone really want a glut of schools from flyover states?

The remaining conference will drive the reorg once the B1G and SEC have fed. If the B12 is in charge, they won't really care about smaller schools, and things could get interesting for us. The other way around, nothing happens to us except getting drunk at the bar watching the rest of the conferences consume what was once one of their own.

Another factor could be that the conferences still have some regional identity. B1G is northern, PAC is west. Currently, B12 holds the Midwest, while SEC and ACC fight over the SEC. Do we really need two superconferences based in the southeast? That may be the ultimate factor in the reason for attacking the ACC.

[H.U.S.T.L.E.]

As a VT alum, I don't know what to think about a B1G raid of the ACC but it mostly smells fishy to me.

Considering the political muscle that was flexed within the state of Virginia to get VT in the ACC despite UVA's objections (the governor was involved), I have a hard time believing that UVA will be able to easily make that move. Now maybe 12 years after the fact a change in the political scene and the amount of money being bandied about makes this rumor realistic... plus if there's an offer on the table for VT from the SEC, maybe that changes things a bit. However, I think political decision-makers within the state would make it extremely difficult for UVA to move to the B1G if it left VT out in the cold with less financial security. That's in addition to the $50 million exit fee.

The only thing I could see making VT hesitate joining the SEC is for academic reasons - one of the big selling points for VT's move to the ACC was to raise its academic profile and that's why it likes being in the ACC so much. There's a few other peripheral issues with the SEC that might make VT hesitate as well. That mostly boils down to Olympic sports programs like field hockey, women's lacrosse, men's soccer & wrestling (a blossoming national power) that might be left out in the cold.

One other thing I'll speak to about the ACC that's been bandied about in this thread - I think there's little chance of any ACC school ever going to the Big East. The obvious main reason for this is football. Just because Wake Forest, Boston College or Duke are not perennial powers within the conference, they still have invested heavily in football infrastructure. Duke is in the middle of a $100 million renovation project of their football stadium. Boston College has just announced $200 million in athletics facility improvements, including plans for a long-needed indoor practice facility. And because these are private schools, it's mostly all through private donations. Alumni aren't going to allow an athletic department to just bail on the sport because of the sheer dollar amounts many have given to support football in the first place. Really, the only thing that I could see causing athletics programs to ax football is declining interest/participation in the sport due to long-term health effects.