Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Bill Marsh]

The logic is simple. UCONN wants to be in a P5 comference because they spent a large snout of money in that quest but they currently are not in a P5 conference with only the Big XII as a remote possibility. What UCONN wants and what they get are currently not the same and maybe never will be. Eventually they will have to give up on their dream if the Big XII expands and leaves UCONN out.

I asked what the financial logic is. You're answering the wrong question.

[_lh]

The logic is simple. UCONN wants to be in a P5 comference because they spent a large snout of money in that quest but they currently are not in a P5 conference with only the Big XII as a remote possibility. What UCONN wants and what they get are currently not the same and maybe never will be. Eventually they will have to give up on their dream if the Big XII expands and leaves UCONN out.

I asked what the financial logic is. You're answering the wrong question.

No I'm not. I did not bring up the potential financial benefits for UCONN to drop football and join the BE. I am pointing out the simple logic that UCONN WANTS something they don't have and may never have. It is nice to WANT things but you don't always GET those things. UCONN can WANT and PLAN all they want but it is basically out of their hands. Without P5 money their quest can only last so much longer. Sorry.

[NJRedman]

You're ignoring money that is available to them from other sources.

I pointed out how they are different. Don't change the subject. UConn has options those other schools don't. I know I know Bill Marsh lives in CT so he knows everything going on at the school. Still doesn't change the fact that they are hemorrhaging money through their chase for a spot in the FB5 that seems more and more unlikely with each passing month.

Let's follow the logic here for those who are promoting the UConn-back-to-the-BE argument. Consider the following:

1. UConn spent $71.5 million on athletics in its most recently reported season.
2. UConn currently receives just under $2 million per year from its AAC TV contract.
3. The Big East currently distributes about $4.2 million annually to each member from its TV contract.

So, a UConn move to the BE could increase its TV revenue by about $2.35 million over its TV revenue in the AAC.

BUT . . .

4. The AAC distributed $15.2 million in college football playoff money to its members in the most recent report, which breaks down to $1.27 million per school in a 12 member distribution model. UConn would lose this money if it leaves the AAC, money which will undoubtedly be higher in future seasons.

So, the net gain for UConn in moving to the Big East is a little over $1 million ($4.2 mill vs $3.1 mill). That is a very small piece of UConn's $71.5 million expenditures on athletics.

So, the logic is that UConn will move to the BE for a net gain equivalent to about 1.4% of its total athletic budget? A number that will decline as college football playoff money grows. Someone's going to have to explain to me how this solves their budget crunch.

Well they wouldn't be spending that much money if they drop or deemphisize FB. You think the FB5 are going to give the little guys MORE money? hahaha Out of what, the kindness of their hearts? hahaha Yeah the money trickling down MIGHT go up but so does the cost of doing business as a FB school. And that # will grow faster than any $ they might get from the scraps off of the FB5s table.

BTW who is paying for most of that 71+million? The tax payers. You think the state is going to continue to gladly keep cutting UConn checks to chase FB5 membership when a better alternative sits right there full of former rivals? Of course you don't you live in CT, you know all the workings of the school and state house.

Oh wait whats that? Private donors you say? Yes, i'm sure those donors will gladly keep writing checks for losing seasons in the AAC and even more glad as they watch their precious BBall program become a middle of the pack also ran in the AAC. Yup, those guys wont want to see the Huskies play in a power BBall conference at all. They definitely WANT to go to more empty arenas for the AAC tourny in such wonderful destinations as Orlando, Memphis and Storrs instead of MSG.

[Bill Marsh]

UCONN is not in great shape if they get left behind in the AAC. They may find out by this summer that they are left out and have to re-evaluate pursuing big time football. Sunk costs are sunk costs but only idiots continue to throw money at a losing proposition.

It may be a long shot but the long shots are the only ones that make sense for additions. The BE can stay at 10 and be just fine or welcome in a long shot or two if things break that way. There is no need to add anyone else...ever.

Idiots and visionaries.

You really don't understand what UConn's vision is and you should before commenting on what's in their future. I expect that the Big East office has researched this and understands fully what's going on in Storrs. As a result, I don't expect that they're wasting any time on considering this as a future contingency.

UConn wants to be affiliated wth like institutions. That's not The Big East. Similarly the new Big East wants to be affiliated with like institutions as well. That's not UConn.

This kind of discussion is simply a parlor game for college basketball fans. It's not how university presidents think. Nor is it how their Boards and major boosters think either.

They may have been visionaries 10 plus years ago but now they are looking more like idiots with each passing day. Was it a good investment/gamble 20 years ago? At the time, it seemed so and it still may pan out but it is not looking good.

If the Big XII expands to 12 teams and UCONN is not one of them, UCONN football will continue to lose money and prestige by the hour. Someone posted here or on another site about the financial trouble UCONN is in because of them chasing this vision you keep talking about. Without a P5 conference affiliation, that vision is a fool's vision!

LH, in your recent post, you claim that finances were never your issue, but here you are citing their "financial trouble" as a problem.

I simply made the point that the small bump in revenue they'd get by moving to the Big East won't come close to addressing their financial issues.

[Bill Marsh]

UConn is such an interesting case because even though they were at the bottom of the league for the first ten years of the league's existence, they are the most successful men's basketball program that ever played under the Big East banner. Combined with their utter dominance in women's hoops, there's irony that they, along with Cincy and USF, ended up in the least prestigious league for basketball (the others being the Big East, ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten, which sort of take turns as the best league year to year).

I used to argue that UConn should try to get back in the Big East, the conference with the highest number of former rivals, and maybe try to become football-only members of the Mountain West or even try independence. I said that going to the MAC or C-USA for football only, pretending that either would even be interested, would knowingly degrade football, and that UConn is never going to do that on purpose. The Mountain West would be close enough to a lateral move for football from the American. Independence, I said, would work through some sort of brilliance in scheduling and brilliance in negotiating a decent TV contract with ESPN.

Now I'm beginning to realize that the attitude is that basketball can take care of itself. UConn feels that it has built enough of a brand name in hoops that people will still come to games regardless of who they're playing. They're going to rely more on pre-conference games against former Big East rivals as well as nationally respected programs like Ohio State and Arizona, but they're not as worried about basketball. And hey, at least there are some good teams in the American (Memphis, Cincy, Temple, Tulsa is decent, SMU is good for now, Houston maybe). The attitude for basketball seems more like, "Yes we miss the Big East, but this isn't the end of the world. We're still UConn." They don't believe that being in the American can ruin basketball, even if their league isn't what it used to be. They think that the BE Tournament can't ever be replicated, but they can still get on the New York stage by playing against St. John's and doing other neutral site games their. They seem to think that will be good enough.

Football, though, is the program they really have to fight for. Going independent or joining the Mountain West for football would be too much of a risk. Again, the belief is that basketball will be okay whether they're in the Big East, American, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten... whatever. But football would be compromised by leaving the American for an uncertainty like the MWC or for independence.

UConn's best case scenario would be for, somehow, the Longhorn Network to be converted into the Big 12 Network. Without a Big 12 Network, UConn is a lot less appealing, but because conference networks can capitalize so much on the idea that cable subscribers would pay to have the local school's network in their basic package. Without a conference network, markets matter a lot less and quality of football (i.e., willingness of casual fans to watch across the nation) matters more; Houston wouldn't want a conference network because it adds absolutely nothing to the Big 12's list of markets covered. With a conference network, quality of football matters less and presence in new, large markets matters more (i.e., Rutgers & Maryland in the Big Ten).

I think UConn will be willing to wait a long time for the Big 12, ACC, or Big Ten to come calling. Football is a very long-term investment for them, and it would have to take far more radical events than conference realignment for them to drop it. For example, if the viewership and interest level in football drops over the next 20 years as dramatically as interest in boxing has dropped over the past 25-30 years (due to less participation, ever-increasing scrutiny over football-related health hazards, etc.), then sure, it may be worth dropping. But UConn wouldn't be alone in a case like that. LOTS of schools would be dropping football, and it would not just be a UConn issue. Otherwise, the allure of that sport is going cause UConn to keep digging in. Every tiny bit of positive reinforcement, like their upset over 13-1 Houston last year, is all they need to keep on trying to make football more appealing for these other leagues.

From the Big East's perspective, there shouldn't be so much concern. UConn's problem isn't their problem.

Here is the problem both have, without P5 money and affiliation, how long can UCONN and UC survive? Are both okay being Akron for the next several decades? Eventually money runs out, yes? UC is in a deep hole financially and I believe UCONN is too. If the Big XII makes a move this year and UCONN is left out, what then?

Here you are again saying that finances are the issue.

[Bill Marsh]

Bill,

I agree, Fenway Friar did do an excellent job making his point. I have been making the same point! I mentioned the very article he posted a link to when I spoke about UCONN’s financial troubles.

If the Big XII expands to 12 teams and UCONN is not one of them, UCONN is in trouble and can’t wait forever hoping to get into a P5 conference. Money is running out.

Here you go again highlighting money as the problem.

[Bill Marsh]

This is dead on! UCONN is not in great shape if they get left behind in the AAC. They may find out by this summer that they are left out and have to re-evaluate pursuing big time football. Sunk costs are sunk costs but only idiots continue to throw money at a losing proposition.

It may be a long shot but the long shots are the only ones that make sense for additions. The BE can stay at 10 and be just fine or welcome in a long shot or two if things break that way.

Here's one of your early posts on the topic. Money was integral to your runner right from the very beginning.

[_lh]

I never said finances were NOT an issue. They are a big issue for UCONN. As you cited, I have said that numerous times. UCONN is in bad financial shape without P5 money to bail them out.

I did NOT however talk about there being financial win fall for UCONN by joining the BE. Not once...ever. Sorry.

[Bill Marsh]

The logic is simple. UCONN wants to be in a P5 comference because they spent a large snout of money in that quest but they currently are not in a P5 conference with only the Big XII as a remote possibility. What UCONN wants and what they get are currently not the same and maybe never will be. Eventually they will have to give up on their dream if the Big XII expands and leaves UCONN out.

I asked what the financial logic is. You're answering the wrong question.

No I'm not. I did not bring up the potential financial benefits for UCONN to drop football and join the BE. I am pointing out the simple logic that UCONN WANTS something they don't have and may never have. It is nice to WANT things but you don't always GET those things. UCONN can WANT and PLAN all they want but it is basically out of their hands. Without P5 money their quest can only last so much longer. Sorry.

Once again, you are ignoring who UConn is at this point. They are not a basketball school with FCS football. They are an all sports school with FBS football as well as being a major basketball school. They need a home for all of their sports. The Big East does not provide this for them. Nor is UConn the kind of school that the BE universities are looking to affiliate with.

Of course UConn wants its football to compete at the highest level, but if they are unsuccessful in achieving that kind of conference affiliation within an arbitrary 10 years, that doesn't mean they're shutting down their football program.

You're singling out UConn, but there is nothing unique about their situation. You're going to have to establish that NO PROGRAM outside the P5 can sustain football to legitimize your argument. Is everyone from BYU to UMass and everyone in between dropping or deemphasizing football? Everyone in the MAC, the AAC, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt, and the Big West? You can't repeatedly claim that football at UConn is unsustainable while ignoring that there are dozens of others who will also be moving forward in FBS football outside the P5.

[Bill Marsh]

I never said finances were NOT an issue. They are a big issue for UCONN. As you cited, I have said that numerous times. UCONN is in bad financial shape without P5 money to bail them out.

I did NOT however talk about there being financial win fall for UCONN by joining the BE. Not once...ever. Sorry.

Right, you never claimed a financial windfall for UConn moving to the Big East. BUT you did repeatedly claim that money and finances are the problem that will become so great not just now but in the future, that BE membership will become their "best option".

How is the BE their "best option" If it doesn't solve the financial issues that you've repeatedly identified as being the problem in the first place?