An interesting trend

[Bill Marsh]

I've noticed something. Maybe you have too.

Dominance of the NC game may have ended with John Wooden's retirement at UCLA, but it didn't end the incidence of individual programs dominating the Final Four. there have been 3 big runs since the end of the UCLA dynasty:

Duke (1986-94) - 7 FF in 9 years
North Carolina (1991-2000) - 6 FF in 10 years
Michigan State (1999-2010) - 6 FF in 12 years

The only other program positioned for that kind of run is Kentucky with 4 FF in the past 6 years. But the trend seems to be going away from having programs that routinely return to the FF multiple times within the same decade. No one else has mounted the kind of 4 appearance run that we've just seen from Kentucky since the 1990's other than MSU and UK. In the '90's alone Duke, Carolina, and Kentucky all did it in the same decade. When Duke started their run in the '80's, Louisville was just capping a 4 appearance run with a NC and Kansas was also starting a 4 appearance run which ran concurrently with Duke's into the '90's.

At the same time that we're seeing traditional powers struggling to dominate the FF as they once did, we're seeing more and more non-P5 schools making it to the FF. Look at this list in recent years:

2003 - Marquette
2004 - UConn
2006 - George Masonm
2007 - Georgetown
2008 - Memphis
2009 - Villanova
2010 - Butler
2011 - Butler
2011- -VCU
2013 - Wichita State
2014 - UConn
2016 - Villanova

Almost one non-P 5/6 school per year. This was a complete turnaround from a decade (1993-2002) that had seen only UMass '96, Utah '98, and UConn '99 make it to the FF from outside the P6.

The combination of the 2 trends has to bode well for the Big East. I could attribute it to the over-reliance of P5 schools like Kentucky on 1-and-done freshmen, making them young & inexperienced, while schools just a notch below are fielding veteran teams. In other words, experience overcomes talent. But that wouldn't explain the unexpected losses by North Carolina and Kansas in this year's tournament since both fielded veteran teams.

There's probably more than one reason. Whatever the explanation, I welcome the trend. I expect to see more good things coming out of The Big East.

[BEhomer]

more parity in talent level. in the past, the cinderella team almost always was made up of small guards who can knock down 3s. Often, those teams didn't start anyone over 6'6". Now almost every team has someone who's 6'9" or above. and in some cases more athletic. (eg FGCU)

[gtmoBlue]

Parity? Cindrellas? Get real fellas.
Trends...This is an April Fool's thread, right? Oh, I get it now.

Since when are Georgetown, Marquette, UConn, Villanova, even Memphis considered non-power teams? The Big East is a power conference. Since when have those named teams become midmajors? Stop moving the goalposts...that's the Steverrrr's job.

When Mason, VCU, Wichita St, or Kent St, Murray St, Steven F Austin, Alcorn St, Howard, or other middie Wins the National Championship - then we can talk "parity". Until then that is propaganda put forth by the media and power conference fans such as yourselves.

[Bill Marsh]

Parity? Cindrellas? Get real fellas.
Trends...This is an April Fool's thread, right? Oh, I get it now.

Since when are Georgetown, Marquette, UConn, Villanova, even Memphis considered non-power teams? The Big East is a power conference. Since when have those named teams become midmajors? Stop moving the goalposts...that's the Steverrrr's job.

When Mason, VCU, Wichita St, or Kent St, Murray St, Steven F Austin, Alcorn St, Howard, or other middie Wins the National Championship - then we can talk "parity". Until then that is propaganda put forth by the media and power conference fans such as yourselves.

No one said they were non "power" teams. Advanced in the media has been the belief that schools with big football money have advantages even in non-football sports.

Regardless of whether this theory is true, it's a simple fact that by the '90's, P6 football schools began to dominate the Final Four. Basketball-first schools which had even successful in the postseason began in the 1930's were no longer getting to the F4. The success of the BE was fading. Catholic schools from any conference were no longer making it deep into the tournament.

Say what you want about which schools are "power" schools, the evidence isn't there to support them as such in the '90's and early 2000's.

[BEhomer]

I wasn't referring to Nova's championship. Just noting the gap between major schools (BE included of course) and mid-majors have narrowed significantly.

It used to be a big thing when 12 seed upset 5 seed. Now the only question is how many. Let me remind you Butler got real close couple of times out of Horizon. so, I wouldn't be surprised if/when one of these schools actually pull it off.

[ecasadoSBU]

I don't get it. These five where all part of the P6 (BCS leagues) Big East so I don't understand how they are now considered non-P5?

1999 - UConn
2004 - UConn
2011 - UConn
2007 - Georgetown
2009 - Villanova

[ecasadoSBU]

I don't think there is any more parity in College basketball than before.

Truth is that the Major conference keep winning the far majority of titles and most F4 programs also are from the major basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, B10, B12, SEC, PAC12)

[Bill Marsh]

I don't get it. These five where all part of the P6 (BCS leagues) Big East so I don't understand how they are now considered non-P5?

1999 - UConn
2004 - UConn
2011 - UConn
2007 - Georgetown
2009 - Villanova

I think you mean 2014 UConn, not 2011 UConn.

The old Big East was a hybrid league of P6 football schools and of non-football schools. As such, Georgetown and Villanova were never members of a P6 conference.

UConn is a unique case. They joined Big East Football for the 2004-05 season Prior to that, they were a FBS independent for a few years, following a history of playing at the FCS level (like Villanova for example). UConn's Final Four NC seasons in 1998-99, 2003-04, and 20013-14 were all earned before and/or after their membership in the P6 Big East Football Conference. OTOH, their FF/NC seasons in 2008-09 and 2010-11 were earned when they were members of P6 football.

Remember that the theory is that P5, or formerly P6 programs, have had an advantage over other programs because of the added exposure and publicity that these universities receive during football season and because of the financial benefits from their football programs which enhance all sports and facilities at those universities. UConn had none of these benefits when they won their first 2 NCs in 1999 and 2004 prior to their admission to Big East Football. If anything, their investment in their football upgrade during that period was a drain on their resources. The argument could be made that they were still receiving benefits from football in 2014, but the fact is that they were no longer in a P6 program at that point.

[Bill Marsh]

I don't think there is any more parity in College basketball than before.

Truth is that the Major conference keep winning the far majority of titles and most F4 programs also are from the major basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, B10, B12, SEC, PAC12)

I agree that there is not parity, but in the last 10-15years, there has been a place at the table for schools from outside this power conferences to a degree that had not existed for a long time. Consider the following list of F4 teams in recent years from outside the power conferences you listed;

2003 - Marquette (CUSA)
2006 - George Mason (Colonial)
2008 - Memphis (CUSA)
2010 - Butler (Horizon)
2011 - Butler (Horizon)
2011 - VCU (Colonial)
2013 - Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
2014 - UConn (American)

Consider the decade before that (1993-2002)

1996 - UMass (Atlantic 10)
1998 - Utah (Mountain West)

At the same time we has seen a decline in the ability of those same power conferences to get teams to the Final Four. Consider the PAC-12. Only 1 member has gotten a team to the Final Four in the past 15 years - UCLA 3 times (2006-08). That's hardly better than the Colonial, the Horizon, or CUSA during that same period.

Similarly, the Big XII has sent only 3 teams to the Final Four in the past 12 years - Kansas (2008, 2012) and Oklahoma (2016). How does that separate them from the Horizon and the Colonial in that same period?

Also consider that the Big Ten has not won a national championship since 2000 (Michigan State). Yet, the fledgling American Conference won the title in its first year of existence (2014).

When combined as a group, your claim that the far number of titles and most F4 programs are from the major conferences is true. But in light of the record of the PAC-12, the Big XII, and even the B1G, it would be more accurate to say that titles and F4 appearances are going to SOME of those conferences only.

[billyjack]

Programs Making The Final Four, Past 10 Years:
Conference (Programs in Conference With Final-4 in Past 10 Years), (Programs Making F4 Out Of Current Conf).

ACC (4) (3 out of ACC):
North Carolina 2,
Duke 2.
Syracuse 2 (Big East 1).
Louisville 2 (Big East 2).
3 of these "broke rules and/or but didn't cheat".
26% of their programs have made a F4 in last 10 years.

American (2) (1 out of American):
UConn 3 (Big East 2).
Memphis 1 (C-USA).
2 of these "broke rules and/or but didn't cheat".
18% of their programs have made a F4 in last 10 years.

Big East (3) (2 out of Big East).:
Villanova 2,
Georgetown 1.
Butler 2 (Horizon 2).
30% of our programs have made a F4 in last 10 years.

SEC (2):
Kentucky 4,
Florida 2.
14% of their programs have made a F4 in last 10 years.

Big Ten (4):
Michigan State 3,
Wisconsin 2,
Ohio State 2,
Michigan 1.
28% of their programs have made a F4 in last 10 years.

Big 12 (3) (2 out of Big 12):
Kansas 2,
Oklahoma 1.
West Virginia 1 (Big East).
30% of their programs have made a F4 in last 10 years.

Pac-12 (1):
UCLA 3.
8% of their programs have made a F4 in last 10 years.

Missouri Valley (1):
Wichita State 1.
10% of their programs have made a F4 in last 10 years.

A-10 (1), (0 out of A-10):
VCU 1 (Colonial).
8% of their programs have made a F4 in last 10 years.
.
The Horizon 2, Colonial 1 both have earned F4's but their representative team has moved on.