Bracketology

[adoraz]

[
Stever's right about this one. Wow. I actually said that.

But yeah, Oklahoma is an absolute match-up nightmare for Butler. We really struggle against teams with big, physical guards.

Obviously some paths are easier than others. You also have upsets along the way which factors into that. But projections are absolute nonsense, especially with more games to play. Nobody knows who will be playing who.

[stever20]

[
Stever's right about this one. Wow. I actually said that.

But yeah, Oklahoma is an absolute match-up nightmare for Butler. We really struggle against teams with big, physical guards.

Obviously some paths are easier than others. You also have upsets along the way which factors into that. But projections are absolute nonsense, especially with more games to play. Nobody knows who will be playing who.

but the point is- for 7-10 seeds, you normally don't have the upsets.

The one thing I agree with you- they are all brutal matchups:
Kansas in Des Moines guaranteed
Oklahoma in Oklahoma City guaranteed
Virginia in Raleigh guaranteed
Oregon in Spokane guaranteed
North Carolina in Raleigh guaranteed
Michigan St in St Louis most likely

not an easy one in there.... some more brutal than others(Oklahoma for instance).

[billyjack]

If the Big East gets 3 Final Four teams later this month, does the ACC invite UConn and Cincinnati to join the ACC...?

[adoraz]

[
Stever's right about this one. Wow. I actually said that.

But yeah, Oklahoma is an absolute match-up nightmare for Butler. We really struggle against teams with big, physical guards.

Obviously some paths are easier than others. You also have upsets along the way which factors into that. But projections are absolute nonsense, especially with more games to play. Nobody knows who will be playing who.

but the point is- for 7-10 seeds, you normally don't have the upsets.

The one thing I agree with you- they are all brutal matchups:
Kansas in Des Moines guaranteed
Oklahoma in Oklahoma City guaranteed
Virginia in Raleigh guaranteed
Oregon in Spokane guaranteed
North Carolina in Raleigh guaranteed
Michigan St in St Louis most likely

not an easy one in there.... some more brutal than others(Oklahoma for instance).

We'll have several 7-10 teams so the second round matchups will be tough regardless of projections. But we also will have 1-2 seeds. It all evens out.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever your problem is you look at the AAC ledger and hope everything falls into place and then you look at everyone else and hope it doesn't. Let me paint a scenario for you. Cincy beats UCONN, Temple and Houston to win the AAC. Not just possible but very possible.

UCONN is out. Temple is out. Tulsa is out. And Houston would have needed the qualifier. 1 bid is as likely as 3. If I were to bet today I'd say that they are MOST likely a 2 bid league. But it's March and anything can happen. Wouldn't be surprised by 1, 2 or 3. Nothing is definitive but as of today I don't see more than 2.

As of today the ONLY at-large teams that Lunardi has in from the AAC is Cincy and UCONN. UCONN is in the play in game. They lose to Cincy they are out. Tulsa is in the first 4 out. So beating the 74th RPI-ranked team will jump them over several other teams? I don't think so. Actually the bracket hurts them as they won't get a chance at Cincy or UConn until the finals and if they lose that , it doesn't help them.

I have some what if's for you...

What if Gonzaga knocks off St. Mary's?
What if FL beats ARK & Tex A&M?
What if Ohio St or Michigan beat Indiana or Mich St?
What if Ore St knocks off Cal?
What if someone completely unexpected wins one of these conf tournaments?

For every "what if" in the AAC that you present, you fail to acknowledge that anything else could possibly happen around the country to derail your master plan.

Hate to say: "I told you so, Stever." 3 correct predictions down, with two more to be decided. This is getting to be a broken record each March. You never seem to factor in that there are actual other teams outside of the AAC that are still playing. And many of those teams get to play good teams in their tournaments while there is exactly one team in the Top 50 RPI in the AAC tourney bracket. That's why they are the 8th best league.

This really is worse case scenario for non power conference bubble dwellers lke the 3 AAC teams, Valpo, SMC and Monmouth...Mich knocks off Indiana. FL only down 2 at half to Texas A&M, Ohio St still to come. Everyone near the bubble moves down. So now Tulsa can't just beat Houston to get in...need to win the AAC tourney. UConn out if they lose without a doubt. Temple needs to win the AAC. If Cincy wins the AAC it's a one bid league. If not, they get 2. I don't see another path for an at-large other than Cincy. Even if UConn beats Cincy and Temple and loses in the finals, they are going to be really, really close to that cut line as the 3rd AAC team will take one of the last available spots. And the fact that it is a Sunday afternoon final is going to hurt them if it ends up being UConn / Tulsa. The committee will use that as the final "play-in" IMO.

[stever20]

St Mary's is HARDLY a lock right now....
Florida is tied with A&M right now so your prediction isn't right at all yet.

Oregon St lost to Cal....

Even Michigan is no sure thing. They were 7th team out, so to say they're going to automatically push ahead of 8 teams is a joke. UConn beats them, they'll pass by them and Cincy will still be ahead of them...

Also there are 2 teams in the RPI top 50 playing. Cincy is 40 and Tulsa is 47.
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi

So the only correct one so far that could be a problem is Michigan winning.

If it's UConn/Tulsa in the final, 3 teams are making the tourney from the AAC. The committee will just have it winner as say 10 seed, loser as 11 seed in FF or something like that.

[stever20]

just saw Lunardi tweeted that he's moved Michigan into his last 4 out instead of next 4 out. So they aren't in yet.

[JohnW22]

just saw Lunardi tweeted that he's moved Michigan into his last 4 out instead of next 4 out. So they aren't in yet.

Why do we listen to Launardi when we have Stever though??

[GumbyDamnit!]

St Mary's is HARDLY a lock right now....
Florida is tied with A&M right now so your prediction isn't right at all yet.

Oregon St lost to Cal....

Even Michigan is no sure thing. They were 7th team out, so to say they're going to automatically push ahead of 8 teams is a joke. UConn beats them, they'll pass by them and Cincy will still be ahead of them...

Also there are 2 teams in the RPI top 50 playing. Cincy is 40 and Tulsa is 47.
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi

So the only correct one so far that could be a problem is Michigan winning.

If it's UConn/Tulsa in the final, 3 teams are making the tourney from the AAC. The committee will just have it winner as say 10 seed, loser as 11 seed in FF or something like that.

Why are you so obtuse? I never said anyone was a lock; that WAS my point. I was simply showing that there are several scenarios in OTHER tournament games that could impact your little dream scenario of the AAC getting 4 teams in. I provided a series of possibilities and so far 3 of 4 have occurred, another is coming down to the wire and another later today. Point being the Michigan and Gonzaga wins, while unexpected, have certainly made things much more uncomfortable for your favorite teams.

And as for Tulsa, what does it say after the number 53:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/page/1/sort/RPI

Oh, let me guess you've got your own site that is partial to the AAC teams, right?

[GumbyDamnit!]

just saw Lunardi tweeted that he's moved Michigan into his last 4 out instead of next 4 out. So they aren't in yet.

Hey Stever just saw that your buddy Lunardi only has two current AAC teams in his field and one is Temple, who we all agree is not a tourney team at this point.