Bracketology

[stever20]

Steven your problem is you look at the AAC ledger and hope everything falls into place and then you look at everyone else and hope it doesn't. Let me paint a scenario for you. Cincy beats UCONN, Temple and Houston ti win the AAC. Not just possible but very possible.

UCONN is out. Temple is out. Tulsa is out. And Houston would have needed the qualifier. 1 bid is as likely as 3. If I were to bet today I'd say that they are MOST likely a 2 bid league. But it's March and anything can happen. Wouldn't be surprised by 1, 2 or 3. Nothing is definitive but as of today I don't see more than 2.

UConn is favored over Cincy. Pretty tough to beat a good team 3x. We see that all the time....
Tulsa will be favored over Houston.

If just those 2 results happen, 3 bids becomes very likely.. And if it's Tulsa/Temple in the final, and Temple wins- all 4 could easily get in.

Huh? Uconn is not a good team. They are a bubble team. They are not UConn of the early 2000's. You are saying all of this as if it is in a vacuum and if it falls exactly as you predict. I was only noting that as you paint a picture to 3, now 4 (LOL) for the AAC it is just as possible for 1. Do you disagree that if it happens as I described that the AAC would be a single bid league?

As of today the ONLY at-large teams that Lunardi has in from the AAC is Cincy and UCONN. UCONN is in the play in game. They lose to Cincy they are out. Tulsa is in the first 4 out. So beating the 74th RPI-ranked team will jump them over several other teams? I don't think so. Actually the bracket hurts them as they won't get a chance at Cincy or UConn until the finals and if they lose that , it doesn't help them.

I have some what if's for you...

What if Gonzaga knocks off St. Mary's?
What if FL beats ARK & Tex A&M?
What if Ohio St or Michigan beat Indiana or Mich St?
What if Ore St knocks off Cal?
What if someone completely unexpected wins one of these conf tournaments?

For every "what if" in the AAC that you present, you fail to acknowledge that anything else could possibly happen around the country to derail your master plan.

Your scenario would PROBABLY get the conference 1 bid, but it's not a lock. And it's the ONLY scenario where 1 bid would be even possible.... And if you looked at the rankings, it's not likely either.

The thing is also- some teams are in worse shape than the AAC teams are. Pitt/Syracuse loser would have a lot more to worry about than UConn if they win vs Cincy or Cincy. St Bonnie/VCU loser would be lower. Also, he's assuming Monmouth is in(also Wichita but that's more likely). Monmouth is hardly a lock at all right now with the slide they've had. St Mary's no lock if Gonzaga beats them.

[JohnW22]

Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Temple would not of had good enough records to make the tournament if they were in the Big East. They'd get walked all over. Dont even start with that Georgetown and Marquette crap, you better believe they would be better cuz they'd be playing the teams in the AAC and get the easy wins. Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Temple would be 7 or 8-10 in the Big East.

Cincy in the Big East that we're talking about would have games with
DePaul
St John's
Tulane
UCF
USF
so there's 5 wins right there....
They swept UConn so 6...

Think it's very easy to see them with 4 more wins between Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Temple, Memphis, Marquette, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Providence, and Nova(toughest by far).... To say any of Tulsa, Cincy, or Temple would have been with 7-8 wins is a joke.... Not much of a difference playing USF and UCF and playing St John's or DePaul.....

Georgetown and Marquette would have gotten these 5 easy wins there, and would have had a tough rest of the schedule. Georgetown did play UConn and lose unfortunately.

A lot would hinge on who you played 2x quite frankly.

You always talk best case scenario for your AAC teams and worse case for the Big East teams. What has Cincinnati done that was impressive this year? NOTHING. They're 0-4 against Big East teams since leaving the Big East. A 17 team conference should get more auto bids than a 10 team conference, but the conference would be much worse(you even say it when saying Marquette and Georgetown would get more wins.)

[GumbyDamnit!]

What if Gonzaga knocks off St. Mary's?

For every "what if" in the AAC that you present, you fail to acknowledge that anything else could possibly happen around the country to derail your master plan.

Your scenario would PROBABLY get the conference 1 bid, but it's not a lock. And it's the ONLY scenario where 1 bid would be even possible.... And if you looked at the rankings, it's not likely either.

The thing is also- some teams are in worse shape than the AAC teams are.

St Mary's no lock if Gonzaga beats them.

Uh oh Stever. Gonzaga wins the auto bid. St Marys prior to tonight was projected as an 8 seed. UCONN is an 11 and Cincy a 9. Tulsa and Temple out. So you think that the AAC teams all jump St Marys or do you concede that most AAC teams fall down another ladder rung?

You're starting to talk like you did last year when you predicted 5 AAC teams and got 2. Time to be honest not hopeful.

[stever20]

on bracket matrix before tonight, St Mary's was on average 10.01 seed. The only 2 at large teams lower than them- VCU and Syracuse. and Just ahead of St Mary's is Wichita, who is by no means a lock either....

and just saw this:
https://amp.twimg.com/v/86d70912-734f-4 ... 8fba5c1bf9

Lunardi doesn't think they'll get in. only top 50 team before tonight(Gonzaga gets in) they played was Cal and they lost. So 2-2 vs RPI top 50 and 18 wins over 200 RPI.

[adoraz]

Seriously Stever... what is your agenda? What's your end game? I don't get it. You waste so much time on here defending a conference that's awful. You claim to be a Georgetown fan but I've seen nothing on here the last 3 years to indicate you care about how Georgetown does. Then you spend a lot of time on the AAC message boards, so it's obvious you have an interest in the AAC. But do you have a team you root for in the AAC?

None of this makes sense. And I'm sorry but you're so deep in denial about how the AAC has performed the last 2 years. You can be optimistic for the future, that's perfectly fine. Personally I expect them to be better next year with how some teams (mainly UConn) are recruiting. But acting like the play of the AAC is acceptable this year is a strange fantasy you're playing out on here.

[Jet915]

on bracket matrix before tonight, St Mary's was on average 10.01 seed. The only 2 at large teams lower than them- VCU and Syracuse. and Just ahead of St Mary's is Wichita, who is by no means a lock either....

and just saw this:
https://amp.twimg.com/v/86d70912-734f-4 ... 8fba5c1bf9

Lunardi doesn't think they'll get in. only top 50 team before tonight(Gonzaga gets in) they played was Cal and they lost. So 2-2 vs RPI top 50 and 18 wins over 200 RPI.

SMC might be out according to Lunardi, but how does he have Wichita State easily in as like a 7 seed when they are 4-7 vs. RPI Top 100 while SMC is 6-3 vs RPI Top 100???

[stever20]

adoraz, I like basketball, period. Georgetown is my local team. I've liked the AAC since they've had a few teams that were in the old Big East, plus I thought with Memphis, Temple in particular that would be a really nice core with UConn and Cincy. I just like(err, love) basketball in general. I really don't like how the P5 has taken over everything, and want conferences like the Big East and AAC to have their really good teams.

As far as the AAC this year, I think first of it's much improved from last year. They're almost certainly getting 2 teams in, despite SMU not being in. Folks here want to dismiss that like it's nothing. They've had 9 more wins this year, despite a much better SOS.

[stever20]

on bracket matrix before tonight, St Mary's was on average 10.01 seed. The only 2 at large teams lower than them- VCU and Syracuse. and Just ahead of St Mary's is Wichita, who is by no means a lock either....

and just saw this:
https://amp.twimg.com/v/86d70912-734f-4 ... 8fba5c1bf9

Lunardi doesn't think they'll get in. only top 50 team before tonight(Gonzaga gets in) they played was Cal and they lost. So 2-2 vs RPI top 50 and 18 wins over 200 RPI.

SMC might be out according to Lunardi, but how does he have Wichita State easily in as like a 7 seed when they are 4-7 vs. RPI Top 100 while SMC is 6-3 vs RPI Top 100???

I think a lot of it is the OOC SOS. Wichita 12, St Mary's 157. Also St Mary's has 18 wins in the 201+ category, which would set a record for most ever to get in at large....

man, St Mary's is gonna be scary next year- looks like EVERYONE is back next year for them!

[JohnW22]

St. Mary's looked good but 0 top 50 RPI wins doesn't look good. Might be interesting to see how the committee takes that though since Gonzaga is 51

[DudeAnon]

Why is everyone cherry picking their RPI of 35? That is good enough to get in. Simple.