Bracketology

[stever20]

Today's ESPN bubble watch has 4 Big East locks and 1 with work to do (Butler).

AAC has no locks, not even any they think should be in... I still think they'll get 2-3 in, but man what a disaster.

ESPN pretty crazy IMO not calling Butler/Cincy locks. even with a loss in QF, they're safe.

If AAC gets 3 in, without SMU eligible, how exactly is that a disaster? It's better than last year.

[XUFan09]

Today's ESPN bubble watch has 4 Big East locks and 1 with work to do (Butler).

Though one could knock Butler's overall non-conference SOS, they still played some tough matchups and picked up a couple really good wins (a road win versus Cincinnati and a neutral court win versus Purdue) and a solid win (neutral court win versus Temple).

In one of the best conferences, they put together a 10-8 record while generally avoiding bad losses, unless you want to count a road game versus a borderline top 100 Marquette squad that everyone knows has a lottery pick (and since the Committee makes adjustments for venue, that will really be considered the equivalent of a loss to a borderline top 50 team on a neutral court). They picked up a couple more good wins in conference, and their poor record against the top 25 just means that they are not getting a good seed. Regardless, they are a lock for the tournament, because the worst that can happen now is they lose to another tournament team in Providence.

[JohnW22]

Today's ESPN bubble watch has 4 Big East locks and 1 with work to do (Butler).

AAC has no locks, not even any they think should be in... I still think they'll get 2-3 in, but man what a disaster.

ESPN pretty crazy IMO not calling Butler/Cincy locks. even with a loss in QF, they're safe.

If AAC gets 3 in, without SMU eligible, how exactly is that a disaster? It's better than last year.

The problem with the AAC is their good teams arnt that good and their bad teams are terrible, there's a major drop off between the top and bottom half. I was watching UCONN a week or two ago on ESPN and when there resume was on screen and under bad losses it had Temple. When the top team in the conference is considered a bad loss it isn't good.

[Xudash]

Today's ESPN bubble watch has 4 Big East locks and 1 with work to do (Butler).

AAC has no locks, not even any they think should be in... I still think they'll get 2-3 in, but man what a disaster.

ESPN pretty crazy IMO not calling Butler/Cincy locks. even with a loss in QF, they're safe.

If AAC gets 3 in, without SMU eligible, how exactly is that a disaster? It's better than last year.

Woe nelly: an insight into the way you think.

How is that a disaster?

Firstly, most of us like dealing in absolutes. 3 in is 3 in, period, end of story. There is no credit given for dirty programs.

Secondly, now that the dirty program thing has been mentioned, it is far worse for a conference and a specific program to be ineligible due to violations than anything else - - cesspool stuff for the brand; no respect for doing it in dirty fashion.

The AAC is a crap conference right now. UCONN is down and in trouble as compared to where it used to be during its time in the BE. Any program that has Mick Cronin at the helm is in for a wild ride. Did you read what he said the other day about UC and its place for consideration in the Tournament? In essence, he said that UC has the same overall record as Duke and therefore deserves to be in the field. Perhaps UC should be in given its specific resume, but he had no right comparing his program to an ACC program.

The AAC is a disaster. How can any conference that sees itself as one of the better conferences in the nation be sitting in a NO LOCK STATUS situation on March 7th? It's a rhetorical question; you have no answer for it, because there is no answer for it. It's inexcusable.

[Westbrook#36]

ESPN pretty crazy IMO not calling Butler/Cincy locks. even with a loss in QF, they're safe.

If AAC gets 3 in, without SMU eligible, how exactly is that a disaster? It's better than last year.

Remember the SMU(23-8, 12-6, #55 rpi) snub 2 years ago or the Temple(22-9, 13-5, # 34 rpi) snub of last year? 3 teams from the AAC getting in is far from a given. No it wouldn't be a disaster, but it wouldn't be the excellent awesomeness that AAC homers were crowing/claiming was a sure fire inevitability 3 years ago.

[stever20]

ESPN pretty crazy IMO not calling Butler/Cincy locks. even with a loss in QF, they're safe.

If AAC gets 3 in, without SMU eligible, how exactly is that a disaster? It's better than last year.

Remember the SMU(23-8, 12-6, #55 rpi) snub 2 years ago or the Temple(22-9, 13-5, # 34 rpi) snub of last year? 3 teams from the AAC getting in is far from a given. No it wouldn't be a disaster, but it wouldn't be the excellent awesomeness that AAC homers were crowing/claiming was a sure fire inevitability 3 years ago.

I asked if the AAC gets 3 in, without SMU eligible, how is it a disaster? I'm not saying they will get 3 in- it's VERY possible though- UConn beats Cincy( who would be in), UConn is in. Then either Tulsa or Temple (or Houston for that matter) win the tourney, and they are in.

It would be a pretty big improvement from last year.

As far as UConn's problems- it's got NOTHING to do with the AAC. Their recruiting has been extremely good. UConn's problem is their coach isn't doing exactly all that great in close games. 4-6 in games 5 points or less, and 7-9 in games 10 points or less. If the conference was so bad, why are they struggling so much in conference games? right now for last 3 years, UConn is #3 7 games back of SMU and Cincy. last 2 years, #5.

And it was absolutely dumb as hell to call losses to Temple bad losses. Temple is in the top 60. That has NEVER been a bad loss in 30 years.

[Westbrook#36]

Remember the SMU(23-8, 12-6, #55 rpi) snub 2 years ago or the Temple(22-9, 13-5, # 34 rpi) snub of last year? 3 teams from the AAC getting in is far from a given. No it wouldn't be a disaster, but it wouldn't be the excellent awesomeness that AAC homers were crowing/claiming was a sure fire inevitability 3 years ago.

I asked if the AAC gets 3 in, without SMU eligible, how is it a disaster? I'm not saying they will get 3 in- it's VERY possible though- UConn beats Cincy( who would be in), UConn is in. Then either Tulsa or Temple (or Houston for that matter) win the tourney, and they are in.

It would be a pretty big improvement from last year.

As far as UConn's problems- it's got NOTHING to do with the AAC. Their recruiting has been extremely good. UConn's problem is their coach isn't doing exactly all that great in close games. 4-6 in games 5 points or less, and 7-9 in games 10 points or less. If the conference was so bad, why are they struggling so much in conference games? right now for last 3 years, UConn is #3 7 games back of SMU and Cincy. last 2 years, #5.

And it was absolutely dumb as hell to call losses to Temple bad losses. Temple is in the top 60. That has NEVER been a bad loss in 30 years.

Get defensive much? Point out anywhere I said anything about bad losses in my post. I merely pointed out the committee's snub's of the AAC the last 2 years and those team's resumes, that is very much germane to this topic. Again, I never mentioned UConn at all in my post let alone a loss to Temple???? Why so defensive? The committee the last 2 years has shown that they aren't overly impressed with AAC, sorry that's a fact. And yes the AAC is struggling to live up to the hopes and expectations that AAC homers were heaping on them 3 years ago.

[stever20]

Today's ESPN bubble watch has 4 Big East locks and 1 with work to do (Butler).

Though one could knock Butler's overall non-conference SOS, they still played some tough matchups and picked up a couple really good wins (a road win versus Cincinnati and a neutral court win versus Purdue) and a solid win (neutral court win versus Temple).

In one of the best conferences, they put together a 10-8 record while generally avoiding bad losses, unless you want to count a road game versus a borderline top 100 Marquette squad that everyone knows has a lottery pick (and since the Committee makes adjustments for venue, that will really be considered the equivalent of a loss to a borderline top 50 team on a neutral court). They picked up a couple more good wins in conference, and their poor record against the top 25 just means that they are not getting a good seed. Regardless, they are a lock for the tournament, because the worst that can happen now is they lose to another tournament team in Providence.

While I agree that Butler is a lock, it's pretty dumb to say a loss @ Marquette would be viewed as the equivalent of a loss to a borderline top 50 team neutral. Marquette is only 19-12 despite having only the #98 schedule in the country. 12 of their 19 wins were against teams #186 or worse in the RPI. They might not view it as a terrible loss, but it's no borderline top 50 loss either.....

[marquette]

I find myself thinking at this point about how great the split has been for Big East schools. If the C7 had stayed in the AAC (granted, it would still have the BE brand behind it) we would currently be in a 6 bid, 18 BB school league. I wonder what the national narrative would be at that point. That's certainly not power conference territory.

[stever20]

Remember the SMU(23-8, 12-6, #55 rpi) snub 2 years ago or the Temple(22-9, 13-5, # 34 rpi) snub of last year? 3 teams from the AAC getting in is far from a given. No it wouldn't be a disaster, but it wouldn't be the excellent awesomeness that AAC homers were crowing/claiming was a sure fire inevitability 3 years ago.

I asked if the AAC gets 3 in, without SMU eligible, how is it a disaster? I'm not saying they will get 3 in- it's VERY possible though- UConn beats Cincy( who would be in), UConn is in. Then either Tulsa or Temple (or Houston for that matter) win the tourney, and they are in.

It would be a pretty big improvement from last year.

As far as UConn's problems- it's got NOTHING to do with the AAC. Their recruiting has been extremely good. UConn's problem is their coach isn't doing exactly all that great in close games. 4-6 in games 5 points or less, and 7-9 in games 10 points or less. If the conference was so bad, why are they struggling so much in conference games? right now for last 3 years, UConn is #3 7 games back of SMU and Cincy. last 2 years, #5.

And it was absolutely dumb as hell to call losses to Temple bad losses. Temple is in the top 60. That has NEVER been a bad loss in 30 years.

Get defensive much? Point out anywhere I said anything about bad losses in my post. I merely pointed out the committee's snub's of the AAC the last 2 years and those team's resumes, that is very much germane to this topic. Again, I never mentioned UConn at all in my post let alone a loss to Temple???? Why so defensive? The committee the last 2 years has shown that they aren't overly impressed with AAC, sorry that's a fact. And yes the AAC is struggling to live up to the hopes and expectations that AAC homers were heaping on them 3 years ago.

I was replying to everyones post and not just yours....

This years conference is much better than it was last year...
last years conference RPI- .5248 80-49 against .4807 SOS .5547 KP rating
this years conference RPI- .5363 89-48 against .5014 SOS .6805 KP rating

you say that includes SMU. Yes. But games against SMU do count. The committee isn't going to do like folks here want and totally dismiss the SMU wins that EVERY contender in the conference got.

Also, in Ken Pom- Last year the conference had 5 teams 220 or worse(with 6 top 100 teams). This year it's 4 teams 193 or worse(with 7 top 100 teams).

Also- you look at Cincy, UConn, and Tulsa, all 3 of those have top 50 Ken Pom ratings. If it's UConn/Tulsa in the finals- all 3 will likely make the tourney.