Bracketology

[stever20]

Not sure how familiar you all are with Dance Card, but they have historically been extremely accurate in predicting the at-large bids. Here is their prediction through Sunday: http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
It has to be concerning for Butler fans to seem them behind a handful of teams for the last at-large spots.

Also, Stanford appears to be fairly safely in the field for the moment. I don't think many other bracketologists have the Cardinal in.

The only thing with that was they struggled last year with the shift in the way the committee selected the field. Missed 3.

[stever20]

few tweets from Lunardi:
@ESPNLunardi Does Providence lock up a bid w/ wins vs Creighton & St. Johns this week?
Lunardi: Yes

@ESPNLunardi If Creighton wins every game they have left except the Big East Championship game, do they make it to the tournament?
Lunardi: 50/50

[stever20]

ESPN update:
Providence 10 W- 3rd team with a bye- 7th team in
Butler 11 W- 2nd team in
Nova 1 E- 2nd seed overall
Seton Hall 7 E
Xavier 2 S

PC fell a seed due to Vandy winning again. Tonight just a huge one for PC. a loss and they're likely looking at Dayton at best unless they win in the BET. And Butler needs tonight probably to just get in.

[Hall2012]

ESPN update:
Providence 10 W- 3rd team with a bye- 7th team in
Butler 11 W- 2nd team in
Nova 1 E- 2nd seed overall
Seton Hall 7 E
Xavier 2 S

PC fell a seed due to Vandy winning again. Tonight just a huge one for PC. a loss and they're likely looking at Dayton at best unless they win in the BET. And Butler needs tonight probably to just get in.

Butler needs to beat both Marquette and Seton Hall to get in. It doesn't particularly matter if they beat Seton Hall tonight or in the Big East quarterfinals, but their path to the dance pretty much goes through the Pirates.

[stever20]

ESPN update:
Providence 10 W- 3rd team with a bye- 7th team in
Butler 11 W- 2nd team in
Nova 1 E- 2nd seed overall
Seton Hall 7 E
Xavier 2 S

PC fell a seed due to Vandy winning again. Tonight just a huge one for PC. a loss and they're likely looking at Dayton at best unless they win in the BET. And Butler needs tonight probably to just get in.

Butler needs to beat both Marquette and Seton Hall to get in. It doesn't particularly matter if they beat Seton Hall tonight or in the Big East quarterfinals, but their path to the dance pretty much goes through the Pirates.

I disagree. I think if Butler beats Seton Hall tonight, they're in- with a caveat. So they lose to Marquette on Saturday. That would put Butler in 7th place. They would then have to beat St John's to punch their ticket in the BET.

[Hall2012]

Perhaps, but I think in your scenario (which still involves a win over Seton Hall, which was my main key), they would need another BET win to feel safe. Fair or not, MU is currently an rpi 100+ loss.

Basically I was saying if they win these last 2 they're set and the BET doesn't matter. If they lose tonight and beat Marquette, they likely get the 6 seed and another shot at the Hall, which would be an absolute must win.

[stever20]

Perhaps, but I think in your scenario (which still involves a win over Seton Hall, which was my main key), they would need another BET win to feel safe. Fair or not, MU is currently an rpi 100+ loss.

Basically I was saying if they win these last 2 they're set and the BET doesn't matter. If they lose tonight and beat Marquette, they likely get the 6 seed and another shot at the Hall, which would be an absolute must win.

It wouldn't be a bad loss if they beat Butler. Marquette would jump into the top 100..... Also, the BET win would be in the 7/10 game vs St John's- and not against one of the good teams(or even one of the decent teams).

[milksteak]

Lost of interesting scenarios for Butler. Here's what I think could happen:

1. If we win out the regular season, we'll make Dayton at the very minimum. Win one more in the BET, and we firmly avoid Dayton.

2. Go 1-1, and 0-1 in the BET, we're squarely on the bubble, regardless of who that win is against. Go 1-1 in the BET, we'll definitely make Dayton at a minimum, as long as our regular season win is against Marquette.

3. Lose out the regular season, we are NIT-bound. This team doesn't have the horses to make a BET run.

I believe this team will definitely seal an invite to the dance with 21 wins (we currently have 19). 20 wins would put us squarely on the bubble and put us to the fate of the selection committee (which has screwed over Butler plenty of times to date). 22 wins should easily avoid Dayton.

[stever20]

Lost of interesting scenarios for Butler. Here's what I think could happen:

1. If we win out the regular season, we'll make Dayton at the very minimum. Win one more in the BET, and we firmly avoid Dayton.

2. Go 1-1, and 0-1 in the BET, we're squarely on the bubble, regardless of who that win is against. Go 1-1 in the BET, we'll definitely make Dayton at a minimum, as long as our regular season win is against Marquette.

3. Lose out the regular season, we are NIT-bound. This team doesn't have the horses to make a BET run.

I believe this team will definitely seal an invite to the dance with 21 wins (we currently have 19). 20 wins would put us squarely on the bubble and put us to the fate of the selection committee (which has screwed over Butler plenty of times to date). 22 wins should easily avoid Dayton.

As far as #2 is concerned, if you go 1-1 and 1-1 in the BET, you'll be in. Even if the win in regular season is vs Seton Hall and then win in BET is vs St John's. Marquette as a result wouldn't be a bad loss.

[stever20]

Patrick Stevens
Xavier 1 W
Seton Hall 7 W
Providence 9 S
Villanova 1 E
Butler 11 E FF- 2nd to last team in