Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[stever20]

Not including yesterday's games, the American without SMU had an RPI no higher than .5290, which would put it .0113 lower than the A-10 at .5403... The Colonial is at .5246, which is only .0044 lower than the AAC (again, if you remove SMU... and again, this is before yesterday's games).

the thing is you can't just act like SMU isn't there. You might, but 99.9% of the folks do see SMU in the AAC. all the metrics include SMU being in the AAC. AAC teams certainly are benefitting from SMU being in the AAC. Tulsa and UConn are certainly benefitting. Cincy could as well. SMU may very well be the reason why the AAC gets 4 teams in the tourney.

The thing that will be interesting to watch here in the next few years is which of the A10 or AAC will be considered as the best basketball conference PERIOD outside of the power 6. This year it's extremely close between the 2. RPI has A10 up by .0028. KP and Sagarin have AAC up. Both are going to wind up in the 2-4 bid range.

My SMU comments were in response to your question (just above) about which non-Big-6 conference would be stronger in the years to come. In fairness to the A-10, you can't use the success of a team that cheats like SMU to use in a conference strength discussion.

My SMU comments had nothing to do with tourney bids this year.

The thing is, we don't know that SMU will fall back to being awful. Next year they sure won't. Just looking at KP- over 60% of the time right now they're using only 2 seniors on the floor at the same time. Frankly, Tulsa is the team that will collapse next year.....

And why can't we use SMU in the conference strength discussion? Because you don't like it? Sorry- but when the media and committee looks at the AAC, they see SMU. This year the AAC and A10 are right about the same in RPI, with the AAC pretty far ahead in KP. You ask the media about the 2 conferences- and they would say they're pretty darn close to the same.

[DudeAnon]

2 of our possible expansion (Dayton and Slu) candidates just put up an exhilarating 14 - 19 half.

[herodotus]

the thing is you can't just act like SMU isn't there. You might, but 99.9% of the folks do see SMU in the AAC. all the metrics include SMU being in the AAC. AAC teams certainly are benefitting from SMU being in the AAC. Tulsa and UConn are certainly benefitting. Cincy could as well. SMU may very well be the reason why the AAC gets 4 teams in the tourney.

My SMU comments were in response to your question (just above) about which non-Big-6 conference would be stronger in the years to come. In fairness to the A-10, you can't use the success of a team that cheats like SMU to use in a conference strength discussion.

My SMU comments had nothing to do with tourney bids this year.

The thing is, we don't know that SMU will fall back to being awful. Next year they sure won't. Just looking at KP- over 60% of the time right now they're using only 2 seniors on the floor at the same time. Frankly, Tulsa is the team that will collapse next year.....

And why can't we use SMU in the conference strength discussion? Because you don't like it? Sorry- but when the media and committee looks at the AAC, they see SMU. This year the AAC and A10 are right about the same in RPI, with the AAC pretty far ahead in KP. You ask the media about the 2 conferences- and they would say they're pretty darn close to the same.

The biggest difference between the AAC, and A10 is that Cincy, Memphis, and especially UConn, have a higher profile than any team in the A10. The biggest problem the AAC has, is that Cincy, UConn, and to a lesser degree, Houston have their eye on the door, making the league unstable. If that league holds together, they may become quite formidable. They are top heavy, but the top has a ton of history. Provided no more dominoes fall in the near future, there are basically 3 keys to how good the AAC will be. Will Memphis swallow Pastner's contract, and get a real coach in there? Can SMU continue to win, post Larry Brown? Can Kelvin Sampson keep Houston on the rise, and return them to something close to what they were under Guy Lewis? Don't sleep on Houston. From the mid 60s, until Lewis retired, they were probably a more successful program than St. John's, reaching 5 Final Fours, and 2 Finals, to St. John's 1 FF, and producing 3 players who were better than any SJU has ever had in their entire history. If people can assume that SJU can return to glory, it's no more of a reach to assume that Houston can do the same thing, and they have already improved substantially since Sampson took over. In my opinion, it's better to be top heavy, with teams that can do serious damage in March, than to have a bunch of good teams, but no great ones. The SEC is garbage after UK, and Florida, but no one really bashes them, because the top 2 have gotten the job done in March.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Every school in the AAC has an eye towards the door - not just UConn, Cincinnati, Houston, etc. It's what made the Old Big East a ticking time bomb. Everyone knew, especially after BC, VT and Miami left, that UConn, Syracuse and Pittsburgh were the next in line to bolt - it was just a matter of time. Today, everyone knows that UConn (still), Cincinnati, Houston, et al., want to leave and be in a better conference. School administrators know, fans know, coaches know, everyone knows.

It's an unfortunate (and sad) reality, but a majority of schools in the AAC - Cincinnati, USF, UCF, Tulsa, Tulane, East Carolina, Houston, SMU, and perhaps you even include UConn in this grouping now - have never been in a stable conference (one that is not at threat of losing members to other conferences). While the old Conference USA (and today's American) schools were always at threat of losing schools to bigger programs, it was those mentioned schools that were consistently left behind to rebuild and, essentially, start over. It's a huge reason why there was such animosity among fans on the other board (and why we started a new board here) when they were finally invited to the Big East, only to see that dream taken away.

You can point to the athletic budgets, alumni size, media market, resources, coaches, ESPN exposure, etc. - but none of that can change what the American really is: a stepping stone to the next conference. Some may get chosen, some won't - but it will never be a conference built upon unity or partnership. Every school is just positioning itself for the next go-around, and every school could care less about making the conference great.

[stever20]

Every school in the AAC has an eye towards the door - not just UConn, Cincinnati, Houston, etc. It's what made the Old Big East a ticking time bomb. Everyone knew, especially after BC, VT and Miami left, that UConn, Syracuse and Pittsburgh were the next in line to bolt - it was just a matter of time. Today, everyone knows that UConn (still), Cincinnati, Houston, et al., want to leave and be in a better conference. School administrators know, fans know, coaches know, everyone knows.

It's an unfortunate (and sad) reality, but a majority of schools in the AAC - Cincinnati, USF, UCF, Tulsa, Tulane, East Carolina, Houston, SMU, and perhaps you even include UConn in this grouping now - have never been in a stable conference (one that is not at threat of losing members to other conferences). While the old Conference USA (and today's American) schools were always at threat of losing schools to bigger programs, it was those mentioned schools that were consistently left behind to rebuild and, essentially, start over. It's a huge reason why there was such animosity among fans on the other board (and why we started a new board here) when they were finally invited to the Big East, only to see that dream taken away.

You can point to the athletic budgets, alumni size, media market, resources, coaches, ESPN exposure, etc. - but none of that can change what the American really is: a stepping stone to the next conference. Some may get chosen, some won't - but it will never be a conference built upon unity or partnership. Every school is just positioning itself for the next go-around, and every school could care less about making the conference great.

But the thing is, until that happens, it's going to be a good conference. You say every school is positioning itself for the next go around. What does that mean? To be the best they can possibly be right now. So until they do get pulled apart(or if)- they're going to be a conference that a year like this will be their normal I think. Heck, I don't think folks realize just how close they were to being even better than this.....
Temple- 3 OOC losses by 6 points or less
Tulsa- 3 OOC losses by 5 points or less
Cincy- 2 OOC losses by 2 points each
UConn- 2 OOC losses by 3 points each

If(and I know that's a big word) they had those, the conference would be a near lock for 4 spots in the tourney this year right now.

[GoldenWarrior11]

What if those schools lost games they actually won decided by 5 or less points?

Temple - 5 wins by 5 or fewer points
Tulsa - 3 wins by 3 or fewer points
Cincinnati - 6 wins by 5 or fewer points
UConn - 3 wins by 5 or fewer points

All four would be guaranteed to be removed from consideration from the tournament. It's why you can't place hypotheticals into tournament candidacy.

[stever20]

What if those schools lost games they actually won decided by 5 or less points?

Temple - 5 wins by 5 or fewer points
Tulsa - 3 wins by 3 or fewer points
Cincinnati - 6 wins by 5 or fewer points
UConn - 3 wins by 5 or fewer points

All four would be guaranteed to be removed from consideration from the tournament. It's why you can't place hypotheticals into tournament candidacy.

true. but you have in there some conference games as well, so teams that lost games would have now won. Temple for instance- Cincy, UConn, and Tulsa ALL 3 lost games to them by 5 points or less.

Also- the close losses ARE helping the AAC out in with Ken Pom- the margin matters.

[stever20]

I was curious so looked- Big East as a whole had 10 OOC losses by 6 points or less....
Georgetown with a whopping 5 of them....
Creighton with 2
Seton Hall with 1(imagine how different they would be with that?)
Marquette with 1
DePaul with 1

probably those cost the Big East 2 spots in the tourney. Creighton and Georgetown would both likely be in right now.... Also would venture a guess, if Georgetown had won those 5 games, they wouldn't be where they are in conference play either.

I think it's inevitable, teams that make the tourney have found a way to win those kind of games, while teams that miss the tourney find a way to lose those kind of games. Georgetown is a prime example negatively- 8 losses by 6 or less, while PC is a prime example positively with 8 wins by 6 or less. You get a close win early and it can feed a team for the entire year...

[marquette]

The thing is, we don't know that SMU will fall back to being awful. Next year they sure won't. Just looking at KP- over 60% of the time right now they're using only 2 seniors on the floor at the same time. Frankly, Tulsa is the team that will collapse next year.....

And why can't we use SMU in the conference strength discussion? Because you don't like it? Sorry- but when the media and committee looks at the AAC, they see SMU. This year the AAC and A10 are right about the same in RPI, with the AAC pretty far ahead in KP. You ask the media about the 2 conferences- and they would say they're pretty darn close to the same.

Stever with a firm "NO HYPOTHETICALS!" I can respect that.

But the thing is, until that happens, it's going to be a good conference. You say every school is positioning itself for the next go around. What does that mean? To be the best they can possibly be right now. So until they do get pulled apart(or if)- they're going to be a conference that a year like this will be their normal I think. Heck, I don't think folks realize just how close they were to being even better than this.....
Temple- 3 OOC losses by 6 points or less
Tulsa- 3 OOC losses by 5 points or less
Cincy- 2 OOC losses by 2 points each
UConn- 2 OOC losses by 3 points each

If(and I know that's a big word) they had those, the conference would be a near lock for 4 spots in the tourney this year right now.

Wait a minute...

[Westbrook#36]

What, stever playing both sides of the fence, moving goalposts, and using whichever metric supports his agenda while ignoring everything else, who would've thought?