Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[BEX]

and X left a nice parting gift to the A-10 of a bazillion units, a factor that really hurt us the first year in the BE.

[Masterofreality]

Dayton is not getting an invite to the Big East. Not now, not in the forseeable future. Put that dead dog down and bury it. Fun for message board fodder, but it's not happening, VD fan.

I heard a very interesting interview, however, after the Xavier game on Cincinnati radio on Saturday between WLW radio host Ken Broo and Mark Hoover- writer for the Tulsa World newspaper who is dialed into the University of Oklahoma and the Big 12. Broo was pumping him for an opinion as to "if the Big 12 expanded, who had the best chances of being taken?" Obviously Broo was hoping for some kind of validation that Cincinnati was a top choice...he didn't get it, however.

Hoover surprised Broo by saying that, based upon his "tea leaves readings", BYU would be the first choice and, because of the television eyes in the Northeast that could be added, that Connecticut would be second- but they would have to fix their "football situation". Broo sputtered with asking where Cincinnati would fall and Hoover said "maybe 3rd but that a Florida school or Memphis could be attractive too.

Fact is that Cincinnati's brand is falling, despite their continual lobbying efforts. Football under Tubervill is going down and their basketball is declining under Cronin. They can't get the money raised for their hoped-for basketball arena renovation and have had to delay that for at least 1 year. UConn fans rejoice. You may be bailed out of a sinking AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC ship.

Dayton isn't some long shot and neither is Cincy. We get it, X has to be the winner of realignment and it's two rivals need to be losers. Put that dead dog down and bury it. Fun for message board fodder, but it's not happening.

Look. You can believe me or not. I really have no thought about Dayton except for their fans that can't stay off this board looking for some morsel of hope. They're not a Xavier rival anymore. I'm not blithely bragging about this, but I have relationships with people in power with knowledge of the situation, and, for many many reasons, Dayton is not, and will not be a candidate for a Big East expansion, no matter how many people from whatever base say on a message board. But you are right. Dayton is not some long shot. They are NO shot. It is not going to happen.

As to Cincinnati. I only quoted what was actually commentated on on a public radio forum on Saturday. I only shared it here because it might have been interesting and what was said came from the Tulsa writer I quoted. I really don't give a crap what happens to Cincinnati. With Cronin as a basketball coach and Tubberville as a football coach, they won't be elite anyway.

[NJRedman]

Dayton is not getting an invite to the Big East. Not now, not in the forseeable future. Put that dead dog down and bury it. Fun for message board fodder, but it's not happening, VD fan.

I heard a very interesting interview, however, after the Xavier game on Cincinnati radio on Saturday between WLW radio host Ken Broo and Mark Hoover- writer for the Tulsa World newspaper who is dialed into the University of Oklahoma and the Big 12. Broo was pumping him for an opinion as to "if the Big 12 expanded, who had the best chances of being taken?" Obviously Broo was hoping for some kind of validation that Cincinnati was a top choice...he didn't get it, however.

Hoover surprised Broo by saying that, based upon his "tea leaves readings", BYU would be the first choice and, because of the television eyes in the Northeast that could be added, that Connecticut would be second- but they would have to fix their "football situation". Broo sputtered with asking where Cincinnati would fall and Hoover said "maybe 3rd but that a Florida school or Memphis could be attractive too.

Fact is that Cincinnati's brand is falling, despite their continual lobbying efforts. Football under Tubervill is going down and their basketball is declining under Cronin. They can't get the money raised for their hoped-for basketball arena renovation and have had to delay that for at least 1 year. UConn fans rejoice. You may be bailed out of a sinking AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC ship.

Dayton isn't some long shot and neither is Cincy. We get it, X has to be the winner of realignment and it's two rivals need to be losers. Put that dead dog down and bury it. Fun for message board fodder, but it's not happening.

Look. You can believe me or not. I really have no thought about Dayton except for their fans that can't stay off this board looking for some morsel of hope. They're not a Xavier rival anymore. I'm not blithely bragging about this, but I have relationships with people in power with knowledge of the situation, and, for many many reasons, Dayton is not, and will not be a candidate for a Big East expansion, no matter how many people from whatever base say on a message board. But you are right. Dayton is not some long shot. They are NO shot. It is not going to happen.

As to Cincinnati. I only quoted what was actually commentated on on a public radio forum on Saturday. I only shared it here because it might have been interesting and what was said came from the Tulsa writer I quoted. I really don't give a crap what happens to Cincinnati. With Cronin as a basketball coach and Tubberville as a football coach, they won't be elite anyway.

Okay I don't believe anyone on the internet saying they have any kind of inside access to people in the know. Also, just because X doesn't want a team doesn't mean the other 9 will go along with that. I think expansion is still 9 years away, I doubt your "insiders" or anyone else is seriously talking about expansion yet.

This is how I know it's BS. Dayton wont be a CANDIDATE? Thats horse poo, it's one thing to say so and so school will block a team from getting in but to say they wont even be considered? That the conference isn;t going to do it's due diligence and actually take an honest look at possible additions because X says no? I don't believe a word of that. Are they not a candidate right now? No, they aren't because no one is. Will they never be a candidate? No, they will be vetted just like the others on the short list.

Once again, we get it, X is better than everyone in the greater Cincy area. You are the grand supreme program/college! You won realignment and the other two will rue the day they were in the south west ohio area.

[JPSchmack]

Someone else already broke down the additional units needed for the Big East to be better off. If the BE averages 50% of the league earning an NCAA bid, they'd need an extra unit every six years to make money by expanding to 12. Check a few pages back.

And the PERFECT candidate, Gonzaga. Obvious obstacle is logistics. Is this still the impossible dream?

Explain what happens in the Big East standings if you have Gonzaga. This is the type of “conventional wisdom” nonsense that drives me nuts.

Your 6 NCAA bids + Gonzaga + Dayton doesn't equal 8 NCAA bids just because Dayton and Gonzaga have made the dance.


Gonzaga is a national brand because since 1997, they've won .817 of their games, been in the dance every year for almost two decades, and have seven Sweet 16s. But in the Big East, virtually NONE of that matters.

In their 18-year run, Gonzaga is (pre-NCAA Tourney)
.817 overall, but that includes WCC games.
.883 vs West Coast Conference teams, none of whom will be in the Big East.
.886 in the West Coast Tournament, which they won’t be in anymore — 13-time West Coast Tournament champions (aka the auto bid) which they won’t be eligible for.

What the Big East actually gets is, based on their RPI breakdowns, a program that is:
.306 vs Top 25 RPI teams
.482 vs Top 50 RPI teams
.765 vs 51-100 RPI teams
.936 vs 101+ RPI teams

Which works out to an average of 10-8 or 9-9 Big East record. Probably lower because the 51-100 RPI teams in the Big East are teams like Marquette and Creighton — teams which would also be higher if not for the ridiculously tough Big East schedule — instead of WCC teams like Pepperdine and San Diego.

So now they’re on the bubble half time time, which takes away half their bids, half their Sweet 16 opportunities. Which makes them less relevant and less of a national brand than now.

And of course, it hands out more losses to the OTHER Big East teams.


What you really get is a program that’s 184-66 (.736) OOC. Which is 10-3 on average. We’ll say 10-2 because most their 18-year run included 14 WCC games pre-expansion, not 18; and because with 12 top 75 RPI games in the Big East instead of 4 in the WCC, they would really tone down their OOC SOS.

So you get a program that’s capable of going 10-2 OOC and 9-9 in the Big East and on the bubble. You’ve got nine of them already.


You’d be devaluing Gonzaga, just like you devalued Creighton and Marquette. If any of your bottom four TRADED PLACES with Gonzaga, don’t you think THEY’D be going 14-4 or better every year and winning the auto-bid at half the time? I do.

[NJRedman]

Someone else already broke down the additional units needed for the Big East to be better off. If the BE averages 50% of the league earning an NCAA bid, they'd need an extra unit every six years to make money by expanding to 12. Check a few pages back.

And the PERFECT candidate, Gonzaga. Obvious obstacle is logistics. Is this still the impossible dream?

Explain what happens in the Big East standings if you have Gonzaga. This is the type of “conventional wisdom” nonsense that drives me nuts.

Your 6 NCAA bids + Gonzaga + Dayton doesn't equal 8 NCAA bids just because Dayton and Gonzaga have made the dance.


Gonzaga is a national brand because since 1997, they've won .817 of their games, been in the dance every year for almost two decades, and have seven Sweet 16s. But in the Big East, virtually NONE of that matters.

In their 18-year run, Gonzaga is (pre-NCAA Tourney)
.817 overall, but that includes WCC games.
.883 vs West Coast Conference teams, none of whom will be in the Big East.
.886 in the West Coast Tournament, which they won’t be in anymore — 13-time West Coast Tournament champions (aka the auto bid) which they won’t be eligible for.

What the Big East actually gets is, based on their RPI breakdowns, a program that is:
.306 vs Top 25 RPI teams
.482 vs Top 50 RPI teams
.765 vs 51-100 RPI teams
.936 vs 101+ RPI teams

Which works out to an average of 10-8 or 9-9 Big East record. Probably lower because the 51-100 RPI teams in the Big East are teams like Marquette and Creighton — teams which would also be higher if not for the ridiculously tough Big East schedule — instead of WCC teams like Pepperdine and San Diego.

So now they’re on the bubble half time time, which takes away half their bids, half their Sweet 16 opportunities. Which makes them less relevant and less of a national brand than now.

And of course, it hands out more losses to the OTHER Big East teams.


What you really get is a program that’s 184-66 (.736) OOC. Which is 10-3 on average. We’ll say 10-2 because most their 18-year run included 14 WCC games pre-expansion, not 18; and because with 12 top 75 RPI games in the Big East instead of 4 in the WCC, they would really tone down their OOC SOS.

So you get a program that’s capable of going 10-2 OOC and 9-9 in the Big East and on the bubble. You’ve got nine of them already.


You’d be devaluing Gonzaga, just like you devalued Creighton and Marquette. If any of your bottom four TRADED PLACES with Gonzaga, don’t you think THEY’D be going 14-4 or better every year and winning the auto-bid at half the time? I do.

I agree that you don't just add a team and their bid comes with them. But you leave out the boost a team like Gonzaga would get on the recruiting trail by joining the Big East.

[DudeAnon]

JP, you just jumped the shark man.

[Bill Marsh]

1 bid = $1.5 million (currently),or $250K per year for 6 years.
5 bids = $7.5 million = $750K per team annually in a 10 team league.
6 bids = $9.0 million = $750K per team annually in a 12 team league.

Actually it's up to 1.67 million now and probably more this yr. So last yr. 5 x 1.67= 8.35 million 1 (X) 1.67 x 3 == 5.1 million or a total of 13.45 million divided by 10.

Yes, I was using last year's numbers, but the point remains the same.

[Bill Marsh]

Someone else already broke down the additional units needed for the Big East to be better off. If the BE averages 50% of the league earning an NCAA bid, they'd need an extra unit every six years to make money by expanding to 12. Check a few pages back.

Schmack, you think like an A10 fan by focusing on the number of teams that the conference will get in the tournament. It does no good to get an extra team I if those 6-7 teams all go out in the first round. Tournament revenue is generated by winning tournament games, not just by getting teams into the tournament.

Using last year's dollars, that one extra team every 6 years = an extra $1.5 mill every 6 years, spread out over 6 years, i.e. 'an extra $250K for the league annually, split 12 ways. Do you seriously believe that it would be worth it to create a watered down product in order to increase each member's revenue by a measly $20,000 a year?

If all we're striving for is 50% bids + 1 every 6 years, then stay at 10. That is no incentive to expand.

Your calculation totally ignores the hit that the league would take in its value for the next television contract by watering down the level competition with inferior teams. If the league were to expand, the reason would be to make the league stronger and more marketable, not weaker and less marketable.

And the PERFECT candidate, Gonzaga. Obvious obstacle is logistics. Is this still the impossible dream?

Explain what happens in the Big East standings if you have Gonzaga. This is the type of “conventional wisdom” nonsense that drives me nuts.

Your 6 NCAA bids + Gonzaga + Dayton doesn't equal 8 NCAA bids just because Dayton and Gonzaga have made the dance.


Gonzaga is a national brand because since 1997, they've won .817 of their games, been in the dance every year for almost two decades, and have seven Sweet 16s. But in the Big East, virtually NONE of that matters.

In their 18-year run, Gonzaga is (pre-NCAA Tourney)
.817 overall, but that includes WCC games.
.883 vs West Coast Conference teams, none of whom will be in the Big East.
.886 in the West Coast Tournament, which they won’t be in anymore — 13-time West Coast Tournament champions (aka the auto bid) which they won’t be eligible for.

What the Big East actually gets is, based on their RPI breakdowns, a program that is:
.306 vs Top 25 RPI teams
.482 vs Top 50 RPI teams
.765 vs 51-100 RPI teams
.936 vs 101+ RPI teams

Which works out to an average of 10-8 or 9-9 Big East record. Probably lower because the 51-100 RPI teams in the Big East are teams like Marquette and Creighton — teams which would also be higher if not for the ridiculously tough Big East schedule — instead of WCC teams like Pepperdine and San Diego.

So now they’re on the bubble half time time, which takes away half their bids, half their Sweet 16 opportunities. Which makes them less relevant and less of a national brand than now.

And of course, it hands out more losses to the OTHER Big East teams.


What you really get is a program that’s 184-66 (.736) OOC. Which is 10-3 on average. We’ll say 10-2 because most their 18-year run included 14 WCC games pre-expansion, not 18; and because with 12 top 75 RPI games in the Big East instead of 4 in the WCC, they would really tone down their OOC SOS.

So you get a program that’s capable of going 10-2 OOC and 9-9 in the Big East and on the bubble. You’ve got nine of them already.


You’d be devaluing Gonzaga, just like you devalued Creighton and Marquette. If any of your bottom four TRADED PLACES with Gonzaga, don’t you think THEY’D be going 14-4 or better every year and winning the auto-bid at half the time? I do.

You're treating this like it's math exercise, which it is not. You're fine as far as the math goes, but that's not how it works. The goal is to get strong teams who take turns at the top of the league, not to water down the league by adding bottom feeders. Candidates for expansion need to demonstrate a high level of commitment to their program, a proven level of fan and alumni support for the program, and a track record of successful accomplishment. That will result in a strong, competitive league.

A strong,competitive league will produce a group of strong, competitive teams that can win games in the tournament every year. Winning tournament games is what produces the real tournament revenue, not simply grabbing one more bid for a team that will exit in the first round.

A strong, competitive league will mean that every member is attractive to top recruits. It means that all conference games will be attractive to our TV partners, resulting in a continued commitment from Fox or an even better offer from another network. It will mean all members can compete successfully against top OOC competition and thereby enhance the RPI of every other member while improving everyone's shot at a bid.

The gold standard for the Big East is the 1980's when every one of the original 8 member got at least to the Elite 8 by 1990, when 6 members made it to a Final Four, and when 3 got to the F4 in the same season. Your mathematics would never have predicted that.

The whole point of this conference is to think big, not to think small. That's who we are, the BIG East.

[Xudash]

Excellent post Bill.

I chimed back in a few pages ago to make a few simple points:

1. The Big East as it presently is configured is working beautifully; its membership shouldn't be adjusted.

2. Diluting a product seldom, if ever makes sense. That is absolutely the case when it comes to the Big East.

3. I firmly believe we should remain at 10 schools for the above two reasons, in particular.

BTW, whether you believe him or not - and you are certainly free to believe or not believe him, and to do that simply because he's a Xavier fan, but MOR is spot on. Sorry.

[NJRedman]

Excellent post Bill.

I chimed back in a few pages ago to make a few simple points:

1. The Big East as it presently is configured is working beautifully; its membership shouldn't be adjusted.

2. Diluting a product seldom, if ever makes sense. That is absolutely the case when it comes to the Big East.

3. I firmly believe we should remain at 10 schools for the above two reasons, in particular.

BTW, whether you believe him or not - and you are certainly free to believe or not believe him, and to do that simply because he's a Xavier fan, but MOR is spot on. Sorry.

Spot on with what? That Dayton will never even be a candidate? Once again, it's X fans superiority complex at play. Even if MOR has inside info at X doesn't mean he does at Marquette, SJU, Nova etc etc etc. If you think that Dayton wont even be considered than I have a bridge for sale you might be interested in.