How many Tournament bids?

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

So, how many teams are we realistically looking to get into the tournament as of the end of today, 1/23/16?

Team(s) that are in:

Villanova
Xavier
Providence

Team(s) that are in but can't afford any "bad" losses:

Butler

Team(s) that are on the bubble:

Seton Hall

Team(s) that have work to do:

Creighton
Georgetown
Marquette

RPI Forecast – through games of Jan. 24, 2016

Projected Final RPI Ranking – Team • Projected W-L Record

2 – Villanova • 26-5
5 – Xavier • 25-5
27 – Providence • 23-8
41 – Butler • 21-9
60 – Seton Hall • 19-11
69 – Georgetown • 17-14
72 – Creighton • 20-11
135 – Marquette • 17-14
168 – DePaul • 10-20
223 – St. John’s • 7-23

I think it is a 60% [chance of 6 NCAA bids] and 40% [chance of 5 NCAA bids]. You guys are discounting the St. Johns/ DePaul factor, where most teams are looking like they are starting with 4 wins.

RPI Forecast does not support your optimism, but it does include the St. Johns/ DePaul factor. While 6 NCAA bids for BE teams is mathematically possible this season, it is not probable – too many unlikely results are required for 6 BE teams to make the tournament.

RPI Forecast also suggests that the probability of 4 bids for BE teams is greater than the 0% chance that you implicitly assigned to it.

I wouldn’t bet against the BE getting 5 teams into the tournament, but in order for that to happen, one of {Seton Hall, Georgetown, or Creighton} will have to finish the season better than presently predicted (but not at the expense of Butler).

Given the strength of top of the Big East, it is highly unlikely that any of the bottom 6 BE teams will win the Big East Tournament. Villanova and Xavier fans are already looking forward to their third meeting of the season in the BE Tournament Championship game. If I had to handicap the Big East Tournament today, it would be as follows:

Probability of Winning the Big East Tournament

45% - Villanova
40% - Xavier
15% - the field

If the present top four BE teams are the semifinalists in the BE Tournament (as might be expected), that will not be helpful for the chances of Seton Hall, Georgetown, or Creighton getting an ‘at large’ invitation to the Big Dance.

Updated 1/25 bracketology

Xavier 2 S vs N Illinois, then Dayton/Valpo- St Louis- then Mich St
Providence 5 S vs Tulsa, then Oregon- Spokane
Villanova 1 W vs Navy, then Michigan/Florida- Brooklyn- then Louisville
Butler 10 W vs Texas, then Virginia- Raleigh- then Maryland/Duke

Butler right now the next to last team with a bye.
Seton Hall 3rd team out
Georgetown 7th team out

[BMRadio99]

And the other thing for Butler- they need Purdue to keep on winning- they are RPI 26 right now. Need to have that RPI top 50 win. They are one that if Cincy got going some could REALLY help Butler out big time.

Agreed. Purdue has two dates with Maryland coming up, which would help them immensely. UC has no margin for error...their upcoming schedule, outside of closing with SMU (and maybe kinda UConn), is full of typical AAC dumpster fire teams. Now, granted, winning conference games would fix everything. But right now...yeah.

[stever20]

And the other thing for Butler- they need Purdue to keep on winning- they are RPI 26 right now. Need to have that RPI top 50 win. They are one that if Cincy got going some could REALLY help Butler out big time.

Agreed. Purdue has two dates with Maryland coming up, which would help them immensely. UC has no margin for error...their upcoming schedule, outside of closing with SMU (and maybe kinda UConn), is full of typical AAC dumpster fire teams. Now, granted, winning conference games would fix everything. But right now...yeah.

Cincy has left 2 with UConn, 1 with SMU, 1 @ Tulsa(who is the highest non SMU team left), home games left with USF and ECU- but then road games with Memphis, UCF, ECU, and Houston. If they can win the other 6 games(which would help their RPI with 4 of those on the road)- getting a split in the other 2 games would put them up to 23-8 and easily in the top 50. Also with 6 road games left total- that could help pump up Butlers 50% pot quite frankly...

[Xudash]

Nice article on X and its chances in the Tournament:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2610942-xavier-is-a-legit-final-four-contender-and-that-shouldnt-surprise-anyone

[jaxalum]

This is the first I've seen that "Dance Card" has started publishing for this year. For those of you not familiar, Jay Coleman, a professor at the University of North Florida has been doing this for a few years and has one of the best, if not, the best system/model of picking the field of 68.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Interesting that he has Seton Hall in and Butler below the line. Lots of season left though.

It's still looking like Nova, X, and Providence are locks.

I'm hoping that 2-3 out of Butler, Seton Hall, or Georgetown can punch their ticket.

[hoyahooligan]

I believe Georgetown needs at least 11-7 and a first round BET win to get in. Anything more than that they're safely in. At 6-2 Hoyas just need to split their last 5 games assuming no loss to St. Johns. Obviously the Uconn win would've helped a lot, but Hoyas aren't out of it yet. 11-7 puts us at 18-13 pre BET and RPI of 51 SOS of 16 and likely top 50 in kenpom. 19-14 with the BET would put us in. Based on Kenpom we're currently favored in 5 of our remaining 10 games so we should be expected to split and make the tournament, just have to take care of business and Hoyas will go dancing.

[stever20]

I believe Georgetown needs at least 11-7 and a first round BET win to get in. Anything more than that they're safely in. At 6-2 Hoyas just need to split their last 5 games assuming no loss to St. Johns. Obviously the Uconn win would've helped a lot, but Hoyas aren't out of it yet. 11-7 puts us at 18-13 pre BET and RPI of 51 SOS of 16 and likely top 50 in kenpom. 19-14 with the BET would put us in. Based on Kenpom we're currently favored in 5 of our remaining 10 games so we should be expected to split and make the tournament, just have to take care of business and Hoyas will go dancing.

To me, if we go 5-5 rest of the way(like you say beating St John's as that would be a devastating loss)- we would be 18-13 with a top 50 RPI most likely and a top 20 SOS. That's not just a lock to make the tourney, but quite frankly- most likely not even going to Dayton. Regardless of what happens in the BET quite frankly!

As far as Creighton... they would need to win all the home games- Seton Hall, DePaul, Xavier, Marquette, and St John's- and then probably 2 road games. Villanova, Marquette, Butler, Providence(Senior night), Xavier(Senior night). That's gonna be rough IMO.

[ta111]

This is the first I've seen that "Dance Card" has started publishing for this year. For those of you not familiar, Jay Coleman, a professor at the University of North Florida has been doing this for a few years and has one of the best, if not, the best system/model of picking the field of 68.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Interesting that he has Seton Hall in and Butler below the line. Lots of season left though.

It's still looking like Nova, X, and Providence are locks.

I'm hoping that 2-3 out of Butler, Seton Hall, or Georgetown can punch their ticket.

Yes, Dance Card is the best at not only picking the teams, but also ranking their expected "S" curve placement based upon the committee's criteria. Right now Georgetown is pretty far down the list and would need a very strong finish to get at large consideration.

[Barley]

I'd place a lot more money on 3 than 6. Butler, GTown, SetonHall and Creighton all have significant flaws. Now I think we actually get 4 but under certain scenarios league play could eliminate several of the aforementioned.

[DudeAnon]

I would say:

4: 30%
5: 50%
6: 20%

People need to remember the bubble is awful this year. I am biased, but I have a very hard time believing that

1) Butler won't regain its footing
2) At least 1 of: Georgetown, Seton Hall and Creighton won't make it.