Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[ta111]

Chicago, I think that is exactly what Murphy is saying. Dayton really isn't that interested at this point. The BE is doing fine and the Flyers are doing fine where they are. Neither side really needs the other right now.

[Bluejay]

UD gets plenty of national exposure through the FIRST FOUR

No they don't. I guarantee you that most people if quizzed, have no idea where the play in games are played (assuming they even know what the First Four is). Of those that do know what it is and where it is played, nobody really cares where it is played. Hell, most bracket pools don't even have the play in games included in the contest.

In fact, outside of worrying about travel to watch their team, nobody really cares about where any of the tourney games take place. Schools that are first round hosts do not garner any long standing national exposure just because they were a host school at a tourney site. One could argue that if any entity benefits it is the town itself, rather than a school, since at least the town reaps the benefit of tourist spending and sales and hotel taxes. Host schools get very little.

(In case you were wondering, I do know what I am speaking about. Creighton has been the second/third round host several times and will be a host for the later rounds in the near future).

I have no idea if your claim that Dayton isn't interested in the Big East any more is accurate or not. Truth is, I don't really care because they aren't getting an offer any time soon anyway. I do, however, find it hard to believe that if the Big East called UD tomorrow and offered membership that UD would turn it down. Your whole posts seems to be textbook rejection protocol ("I never really liked her any way....").

[adoraz]

Dayton is doing well but if Big East came calling they would accept without even thinking about it.

That'd be like UConn turning down a Big 12 invite. Makes no sense. Is there even one advantage the A10 has over the Big East?

Personally I'd like Dayton because of their passionate fans but at this point there's no reason to expand. Let the current 10 continue growing.

I will say if Dayton makes the Final 4 this year then invite them, but I don't see that happening.

[JPSchmack]

JP, i think I get your idea. I don't think it's crazy at all. I think people get sidetracked on the bottom third idea and miss your qualifiers. I was just trying to say how the idea hinges on "who YOU ARE, and who you are adding, to an extent." Meaning the OOC schedule and wins and also what I thought the line for diminishing returns of a max of 13 schools. The "show your work" was more my idea that sometimes its easier for people to understand with concrete examples so if you could show how the A10 (using the years it was 12 or 13 teams) might have gained a bid because of say a Bonnie. However, not only would this have been a lot of work, but I hadn't considered the "who YOU ARE" part which might render the A10 to BE analogy impractical. I think your replies to Dave and myself should have clarified things for everyone.

My only disagreement is the quantified value of the increased payout v the intangible, impossible to quantify perception of the conference after years of this group being attacked and torn down by fans of football schools, ESPN, and pundits. I think many here feel that the conference needs to solidify its standing first.

Yes, gaining another bid would help the reputation. But even if (and I'm finding myself in agreement with you) the numbers work out, the danger is that the detractors will still attack and that the conference is still vulnerable. I am convinced that expansion will happen eventually to gain extra bids.

I think it was Socrates who said “haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate.” Or maybe that was T-Swizzle. Either way, the Big East is ALWAYS going to have detractors from envious basketball schools, to arrogant football schools, to ESPN pretending the Big East is dead because they no longer own the property. Any “What are they doing adding ______ ?” would last for a week or so. Then everyone’s gonna go back to talking football. And if you’re going to go for the gutsy move that makes the league get more bids by adding an unconventional choice, you simply announce the move on the first Friday of the NCAA Tournament at 11:59 am. That makes the “what are they doing?” convo last for six minutes.

Then everyone will forget and the next Big East story is “the new guys finished at the bottom, but the Big East looks even stronger this year, with 9 teams in contention for NCAA bids!”



The main issue with OOC scheduling win percentage is that everyone’s OOC is different each year, and current conference foes can become OOC foes if you change leagues.

When I look at someone like Dayton, they’ve been unbelievably consistent OOC because they know what they’re doing and target 9-10 OOC wins. The main issue with them, in my opinion, is they’re too similar to the teams 7-8-9-10 in the Big East now. And it’s another team that’s gonna beat each other up and damage each other’s chances.

The other thing to consider is that because OOC scheduling changes, any team joining the Big East is going one of two ways:
1. Dayton might think there’s no need to change what’s working. And if they do what they normally do OOC, they’d probably take a step back as a program because the Big East is tougher than the A-10.

2. Step back OOC because they know the Big East is tougher, and carry as many OOC wins into January as possible.

It’s less about TOTAL OOC win percentage for the “bottom” candidates, and more about the RPI breakdown. Humor me and imagine you did invite Bonaventure. They’re not going to play at Syracuse OOC. They won’t need the guarantee money from the game because they just got a 12x increase in their TV payout. They would use that new money to up the guarantees they pay to visiting teams so they can schedule better. Anyone who’d accept a guarantee to Bona has a better chance of winning, and that’s why Bona’s dropped a couple OOC to some of the better mid-majors over the last few years. Anyone they can kick the crap out of gets more money from bigger schools. And yet, Bonaventure is still .783 OOC over the last 20 years against mid-majors OOC. With more money, they can buy easier wins and avoid accepting games they can lose. That’s they type of schedule they’d put together in the Big East.


My unconventional thinking is that if you added Dayton, Bonaventure, and Belmont for 13 (I’ll pause while you all say “Bona & Belmont? Are you freaking kidding me?” Done? Okay)…

You add two to the bottom, one to the middle.
You add one slam dunk “yeah, they’re one of us” program in Dayton.
You add one role player in Bona who’s OOC scheduling and ability to constantly exceed expectations make them never hurt you. And they’re in an uncontested region that could net you TWO top 50 TV markets in Buffalo and Rochester.
And you add one bottom team that’s in a “winnable” Nashville market and is a .754 (237-78) program the last 10 years against non-power conferences, and most those losses are against middle-tier teams they probably shouldn’t play so much of.

10-year averages for what their OOCs would look like:
.754 OOC Belmont (9-3)
.783 OOC Bona (10-2, because they go a game easier)
.810 OOC Dayton (10-2, status quo)

This season, Big East: 93-29 (.7623), Conference 90-90 (.500). TOTAL: 183-119 = (.6060 AVG SOS for a BE game),
This season, those 13: 120-37 (.7643), Conference 117-117 (.500) TOTAL: 237-154 = (.6061 AVG SOS for a BE game), which amounts to +.0010 on the RPI when you play 18 + BET)

Now, the schedule would be unbalanced, so the teams facing the bottom teams an extra time in the “six home & away opponents” would make their SOS below the average.
But they’d also have THREE MORE WINS, which far outweighs that dip.

For example, Seton Hall last year was 2-6 in 2 games each vs Butler, Xavier, Marquette and DePaul.
Instead, they’d be 5-3 in one game each vs Butler, Xavier, Marquette, DePaul, Dayton, Belmont and two vs Bona.

That’s 9-9 in Big East play, 19-12 overall, and their RPI is .5652, No. 60, tied with Ole Miss.

Miss: 20-12, 134 SOS, 3-5 vs Top 50, 11-4 vs 101+
Hall: 19-12, 93 SOS, 4-8 vs Top 50, 14-2 vs 101+

Basically, you’d be adding Seton Hall (1) and Dayton (3) to the Big East NCAA bids last year. Obviously, the alignment changes the NCAA bracket so PC can’t play UD in the Round of 64.

You’re looking at 4-5 more NCAA units:
11 units, 10 teams = 1.10 share
15 units, 13 teams = 1.16 share
16 units, 13 teams = 1.23 share

[JPSchmack]

People WATCHING the First Four or Dayton home games at UD Arena on TV hear about Dayton's fantastic fan base and basketball support all the time... that being said, those people are already Dayton fans watching Dayton games, or college basketball fans who are already aware. So it doesn't really bring much to the table.

But the "most people don't know" thing is silly because most people don't know about anything, period. According to TV ratings, over ONE-THIRD of America does NOT watch the Super Bowl and less than 30% of Americans watched the Final Four. College basketball fans are a drop in the bucket compared to "everyone."

And that's totally fine! There's about 40 million Americans (of 310m) filling out NCAA brackets. The max exposure you're going to get is when your name is on the bracket. No one is tuning in to the NCAA Tournament because of an individual program. Regular season Kansas and Duke TV ratings prove that. The BRACKET creates the stars: Gonzaga was some tiny school no one had heard of with less NCAA success than University of the Pacific... until they busted everyone's brackets in back-to-back years and became America's Cinderella.

Therefore, the max exposure your conference is going to get is more teams on the bracket, period. Which means "who the school is and what's their exposure?" matters less than "does the Big East get more programs in the dance with more teams in the league?" And the answer to that question is Yes.

[UD Flyer Fanatic]

There is one very important advantage the A10 has over the BE. Much easier for similarly situated teams to make the dance from the A10 for all the reasons mentioned by other posters. So my colleague above was correct in that UD fans are feeling fine where we are. All that said I prefer joining the BE because it's the top of our peer group. Frankly there's not too many of us private Catholic schools who bleed basketball.

[BEX]

Agreed re no expansion. We have an awesome league of terrific schools. If it aint broke...

To the moderators: - i wish you would post this - I come in peace

As a lifelong UD follower, I can honestly tell you that the vast majority of UD fans and the admin are really not interested in joining the BE
On the surface it seems surprising, however UD has finally built the team and has the top tier coach that if he leaves, will pave the way
for another quality coach to follow. UD gets plenty of national exposure through the FIRST FOUR and exposure and virtually every game is broadcast on ESPN, NBC and CBS
If they joined the the BE they would also have to cater to the whims of FOX. The UD administration is not a big fan of that network, or any other network pulling strings ( the sports and news divisions.)

I do respect the BE and XU, and it is an interesting league, thats why i frequent this board, however honestly UD admin and fans like where they are
right now. 3 years ago, they would have had a different opinion.

The BE has games on Espn, CBS and Fox. And I'm sure the UD Admin would turn down the 4.17 million a yr to stick with their 350,000 deal. C'mon Man. The UD President would be fired before he hung up the phone if Val called with an offer and he turned it down, so please don't say UD is happy where they are. 99% of UD fans would LOVE to be in the BE. Do you ever read UDPride? That being said, UD is in the right place 'cuz they can win the A-10 every year, even tho they never seem to get it done. No Xavier, No Temple, No Butler. Easy Peasy. get it done once in a while and you might get noticed.

[BEX]

And Murph, please tell us when your team goes east, you'd much rather play in the Gola Bandbox rather than Madison Square Garden with "Bucky" announcing instead of Gus and Raf. Of course, the UD Admin would hate that.
And then maybe tell us you just can't stand the thought of Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, etc. coming to your building. My God, they have to have a lottery in Dayton to get a seat. It would be chaos.

[UD Flyer Fanatic]

BEX, your likely right in that UD Arena would be able to sell 20,000 seats for a upper tier BE team's visit. And that BE team would likely love to play there. But to defend my UD friend, the A10 NCAA split among teams is pretty advantageous to those making the tournament. 25% of tournament revenues are spread equally. Each of the tourney teams keep a more substantial part of the prize than most conferences. Not sure how you guys share. Your tv deal is sweet but don't discount the revenue of a successful A10 tournament team that gets there regularly!

[BEX]

If we keep getting 60% of our teams in, not worried.