Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[JPSchmack]

Don't add bottom feeders! Add top feeders! Build the brand, don't dilute it!

UConn is really the best target "if" we were to expand. The full round robin schedule could be maintained with 11 teams. Even 12.

Adding top feeders would mean two teams going 9-3 or better OOC, and therefore getting you two more NCAA bids. However, if you’re a 10-seed calibre program in the Big East now… you’re sliding down to the bubble because you’re losing more.

When conferences change membership, everyone looks at the teams that got bids and adds those numbers together. Conferences DO NOT work like that. Conferences are a zero sum game.

I think the only thing keeping the 10 members of the Big East from getting NINE bids every year is the fact that they can’t all go 10-8 in Big East play.

[JPSchmack]

That was more a symptom of what was happening... the basketball schools becoming more and more subject to the whims and desires of the football schools. They reclaimed the ability to captain their own ships.

Of course, there are degrees of "diluting" and JP's whole idea depends on 13 or less schools with the bottom third having exceptional OOC scheduling and win percentages. So it wouldn't apply to the A10 after the 2004-05 season (14+ schools) with the exception of 2013-14 (13 schools).

It would be interesting if JP could demonstrate his idea using the applicable seasons (<14 schools).

I suspect JP is correct but I suspect it's more important to solidify the brand and perception of the Big East by performing well as 10 school conference for several more years at the expense of the additional NCAA bid/payout.

I don’t totally follow what you’re asking…

Does ADDING MORE SCHOOLS PERIOD enable more bids? No, it doesn’t. Because it depends on who YOU ARE, and who you are adding, to an extent.

For another conference that doesn’t win as much OOC as the Big East, adding bottom feeders can be bad. Like the Mountain West adding football schools that are bad at hoops. But for the Big East, literally adding anyone would probably get you one more bid. If the teams were truly terrible, it would diminish your overall SOS/RPI, but the sure victories over those teams would offset the SOS loss in the eyes of everyone on the committee. You’d get more bids, but you’d get worse seeds in the dance. And adding teams that actually win OOC would get your two more bids easy.

I am a realist. I know that my team has virtually NO SHOT at a Big East invitation because of conventional wisdom. The reason I “waste my time” talking about it is because I’ve discovered that CONVENTIONAL WISDOM IS WRONG!

So to kinda answer your question, you’re looking for THE LINE of diminishing returns. Is the A-10 “better” because they have 14 teams instead of 10 or 12? Hell no. The RIGHT 12 would be better than the current 14 if you’re stuck with a too many terrible teams that add nothing when you expand for TV reasons in the mid-90s.

There is NOT a magic number, but there IS a perfect balance.

What I’m trying to “sell you” on is the Big East is suffering from diminishing returns of having too many “top half teams” and not enough “bottom teams.” There’s 8 to 10 NCAA caliber programs in the league NOW! The only reason the Big East doesn’t get 6, 7, 8, 9 bids year after year is because of, for example, when Marquette plays Seton Hall twice, two losses go to either Seton Hall or Marquette.

You’re worried about “diluting” the league, but literally NO ONE NOTICES/CARES about the bottom of any leagues! The only reason people don’t talk about Seton Hall and Marquette as NCAA caliber teams is because AFTER going 18-6 OOC combined last year, those two teams then lost 26 Big East games and were saddled with record of 16-15 and 13-19. Both those teams would have crushed the MAAC or CAA and won the auto, or been at-larges/autos in the A-10, MWC, WCC, MWC last year.

I’m saying that if you’re a fan of Seton Hall, Creighton, Marquette or DePaul, you have to be looking at a 15-team ACC and thinking “if we were 8th in a 15-team league, we’re 9-9 and in the NCAAs instead of 5-13 in a 10-team league.”


Are you are asking me WHAT the magic number in terms of OOC win percentage is? Even THAT is fluid. Because if you added a school, that team is going SCALE BACK their OOC schedule because they’re joining the BIG FREAKING EAST. They’d also be able to schedule BETTER because they’ve have TV revenue that allows them to buy the games they need to hit their OOC marks.

And once you pass a double-round robin or a clear division format, it’s hard to project. I can easily Excel a “12-team East/West Big East” and show you what you should expect. (For the record, I should inform you that when the Big East reformed itself into the current 10 teams, I was the sole voice of reason on A-10 boards saying “relax, we’re still a 3-4 bid conference!” and everyone thought I was crazy and we’d be a 1-2 bid league and then ate crow when we got SIX BIDS. I say this not to blank my own blank, but to save you the “what makes me think this guy really knows what the heck he’s talking about?” dialogue). But once we get into Sheg’s brilliant 13-team idea, the problem becomes “Who should play whom?” in an unbalanced schedule.

Give me the six teams everyone plays twice in a 13-team Big East, and I could show you.
Give me a 12-team Big East and your ideal candidates (and who you think they’d beat!) and I can show you.

I personally think the unconventional additions of schools in markets that are decent-sized REGIONALLY, and face the least possible competition in those regions are the best choices. I don’t think everyone in Detroit is going to abandon Michigan State and Michigan to watch Detroit Mercy in the Big East. I do think that there’s a really compelling case for a 13-team Big East with Dayton (addressing your “top half sizzle”), St. Bonaventure (market potential, media love, maintains OOC) and Belmont (winnable market, maintains OOC) that could result in NINE NCAA bids.

Skip the part where you call me crazy and just say “show your work” (or trephine, clarify what you were really asking).

[Masterofreality]

On good authority from a well placed "source" - "Dayton to the Big East is not happening".

I can't disclose any more info about the "source" than that, but VD would be wise to just concern themselves with being the best they can be in the A10. No troll, just fact.

[Jet915]

No reason to expand, Big East is thriving. We are in the position of power.

[BEX]

I love your enthusiasm for Bona. Good program and good coach (spent 7 great years @ X). Honestly, one of the great benefits of joining the BE (there are many), is not having to make the annual snow and ice packed trek to Olean and the Reilly Center. I think our last game there we had to endure an all night bus ride home bcuz nothing could fly. Good luck with your program and hope you get the win vs. UD. I can't envision a situation where X will ever be coming back there.

[NovaBall]

No reason to expand, Big East is thriving. We are in the position of power.

Nodding

[trephin]

JP, i think I get your idea. I don't think it's crazy at all. I think people get sidetracked on the bottom third idea and miss your qualifiers. I was just trying to say how the idea hinges on "who YOU ARE, and who you are adding, to an extent." Meaning the OOC schedule and wins and also what I thought the line for diminishing returns of a max of 13 schools. The "show your work" was more my idea that sometimes its easier for people to understand with concrete examples so if you could show how the A10 (using the years it was 12 or 13 teams) might have gained a bid because of say a Bonnie. However, not only would this have been a lot of work, but I hadn't considered the "who YOU ARE" part which might render the A10 to BE analogy impractical. I think your replies to Dave and myself should have clarified things for everyone.

We still don't know the conference's payout breakdown which plays a role here too.

My only disagreement is the quantified value of the increased payout v the intangible, impossible to quantify perception of the conference after years of this group being attacked and torn down by fans of football schools, ESPN, and pundits. I think many here feel that the conference needs to solidify its standing first.

Yes, gaining another bid would help the reputation. But even if (and I'm finding myself in agreement with you) the numbers work out, the danger is that the detractors will still attack and that the conference is still vulnerable. I am convinced that expansion will happen eventually to gain extra bids.

[Piratefan]

Agreed re no expansion. We have an awesome league of terrific schools. If it aint broke...

[murphy]

Agreed re no expansion. We have an awesome league of terrific schools. If it aint broke...

To the moderators: - i wish you would post this - I come in peace

As a lifelong UD follower, I can honestly tell you that the vast majority of UD fans and the admin are really not interested in joining the BE
On the surface it seems surprising, however UD has finally built the team and has the top tier coach that if he leaves, will pave the way
for another quality coach to follow. UD gets plenty of national exposure through the FIRST FOUR and exposure and virtually every game is broadcast on ESPN, NBC and CBS
If they joined the the BE they would also have to cater to the whims of FOX. The UD administration is not a big fan of that network, or any other network pulling strings ( the sports and news divisions.)

I do respect the BE and XU, and it is an interesting league, thats why i frequent this board, however honestly UD admin and fans like where they are
right now. 3 years ago, they would have had a different opinion.

[ChicagoX]

I can't imagine Xavier, Butler, Marquette, and even DePaul permitting Dayton to join the Big East and allowing them to compete for Midwestern recruits. It seems like everyone is happy with the 10-team, round-robin format, and giving that up to add mid-major schools that do nothing to enhance the conference's brand doesn't make sense.

It's my understanding that expansion isn't even on the table right now, so maybe the Dayton posters should just lay low and step away from this thread for a while until there is legitimate reason to believe that adding members is actually going to happen. Right now, it sounds like it's not even being considered by the university presidents.