Conference of the Americas......one-bid

[Masterofreality]

Houston was exposed as a fraud tonight. Looked terrible against a pedestrian Cincy team.

[stever20]

Stever, just because you're favored in however many games doesn't means you're expected to win all of them. For example, a really good team may be favored in every game for the year. However, each game they may have an average odds of winning at 93%. That means they're unlikely to actually win all the games, just that they're favored in each individual game.

So you need to look more in depth at the numbers. Much more than that, though, is whether you think the UC schools are capable of winning that many games. Based on how they played I wouldn't be surprised either way. I personally wouldn't bet on both making it. For one of them to make it I'd think there'd be decent odds.

What were these teams projected back in October? I'd think a lot higher than 90 by mid January. The games need to be played and they have little room for error.

RPI's can be a little funky even now. You keep on bringing that they're 90. If they win this week, they will not be 90, period end of story. UConn jumped 20 spots beating MEMPHIS at HOME! They now play #64 Tulsa on the road. A win there, and they are going to jump up big time. Oh and UConn is 80 right now.

The thing is also look at UConn. They have 2 games they're predicted to lose this week- 1 has a 46% chance to Tulsa, and 1 has a 45% chance to Houston. Odds are pretty darn good that they're going to win 1 of those 2 games. Cincy has 3 games left projected to lose in the 45-47% chance. Odds are pretty good that they'll get at least 1 win out of those 3, if not go 2-1. So it goes both ways. (oh and UConn has a 3rd game with 44% chance to Memphis). So they may lose a game they're projected to win. But they may just the same win a game they're projected to lose.

Mid January, 90 RPI.

Let's look at the impact on the RPI from just 1 game....
Cincy is now up to #73. Up from 90 at the start of the week.
Houston now 126. up from 128 at the start of the week.

So Cincy went up 17 spots by winning a home game. What the heck?

Oh yeah, that's just what I said was going to happen.

[Masterofreality]

Mid January, 90 RPI.[/quote]
Let's look at the impact on the RPI from just 1 game....
Cincy is now up to #73. Up from 90 at the start of the week.
Houston now 126. up from 128 at the start of the week.

So Cincy went up 17 spots by winning a home game. What the heck?

Oh yeah, that's just what I said was going to happen.[/quote]

Well if a season and NCAA bids were based on 1 game, you might have something, but, oh, it's based on a "total body of work". How inconvenient for you.

Cincinnati had a home game against one of the higher rated AAC teams tonight. Problem is that they have 9 games left (out of their 13 total) with sub 100 RPI teams and fully 6 of those are over TWO HUNDRED RPI. Those games, whether you win or lose kills your rating. They, and the other AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC teams screwed themselves in the non-con by not beating anybody and now they'll pay for it.

Juan Bid is at the door.....and knocking......loudly.

[Xudash]

Let's look at the impact on the RPI from just 1 game....
Cincy is now up to #73. Up from 90 at the start of the week.
Houston now 126. up from 128 at the start of the week.

So Cincy went up 17 spots by winning a home game. What the heck?

Oh yeah, that's just what I said was going to happen.

You don't seem to post very much about Georgetown, as a Georgetown fan. You post a lot - too much, actually - about the AAC.

Why is that?

[stever20]

Let's look at the impact on the RPI from just 1 game....
Cincy is now up to #73. Up from 90 at the start of the week.
Houston now 126. up from 128 at the start of the week.

So Cincy went up 17 spots by winning a home game. What the heck?

Oh yeah, that's just what I said was going to happen.

You don't seem to post very much about Georgetown, as a Georgetown fan. You post a lot - too much, actually - about the AAC.

Why is that?

Have you seen Georgetown this year? Lets see what happens in the next 10 days. Right now- Georgetown is #96 in RPI and #69 in Ken Pom. Best win of the year? Wisconsin or Syracuse(only 2 top 100 wins right now). I'd love to beat Nova, X, and UConn- but just do not see it the way the team has played.

[CoachK]

OOC not great? UConn has wins over Michigan(who just beat Maryland), Texas(who just beat Iowa St), and Ohio St(who has beat Kentucky). How is that not a good OOC?

Ohio State. You mean the Ohio State that lost to UT-Arlington. If I'm not mistaken, I turned on the TV Sunday and they were down 48-18 at halftime to a good but not great Indiana team. UConn beat Ohio State at home....oh wow !!!

And Texas, another big name, but. The game before Iowa State, they lost to a TCU team that was 0-3 in the league and 8-7 overall coming into the game. And UConn beat them without their 2nd leading scorer / leading rebounder.

If you go back a few years, PC beat a great Louisville team by 31 in mid-January. Following that, we must have been an unbelievable game for opponents to place. Unfortunately, we finished 4-14 in the Big East. The reality is, just because you win one big game, doesn't make you a great team, or a great opponent.

[stever20]

OOC not great? UConn has wins over Michigan(who just beat Maryland), Texas(who just beat Iowa St), and Ohio St(who has beat Kentucky). How is that not a good OOC?

Ohio State. You mean the Ohio State that lost to UT-Arlington. If I'm not mistaken, I turned on the TV Sunday and they were down 48-18 at halftime to a good but not great Indiana team. UConn beat Ohio State at home....oh wow !!!

And Texas, another big name, but. The game before Iowa State, they lost to a TCU team that was 0-3 in the league and 8-7 overall coming into the game. And UConn beat them without their 2nd leading scorer / leading rebounder.

If you go back a few years, PC beat a great Louisville team by 31 in mid-January. Following that, we must have been an unbelievable game for opponents to place. Unfortunately, we finished 4-14 in the Big East. The reality is, just because you win one big game, doesn't make you a great team, or a great opponent.

Ohio St #65 in RPI right now. will be interesting to see how they finish. It's very possible they could be in the top 50 and a good win...
Texas- they're #26 in the RPI right now. It's a good win. And UConn was missing someone in the game....
Michigan #36 in the RPI right now.
So 2 top 50 wins, and a 3rd one that could get in the top 50. That's pretty good....

UConn is in very good shape.

[adoraz]

Stever, once again you are completely oblivious. I never doubted how much your RPI can increase or decrease for a single game, especially for teams ranked near 100 or worse. A team in a good position, say an RPI around 30, obviously wouldn't move up 17 spots for beating a bad team.

But are you seriously bragging about a 73 RPI? Lol.

73 RPI is bad. They still have a lot of work to do. Little room for error. Outside looking in.

Get my point now?

[stever20]

Stever, once again you are completely oblivious. I never doubted how much your RPI can increase or decrease for a single game, especially for teams ranked near 100 or worse. A team in a good position, say an RPI around 30, obviously wouldn't move up 17 spots for beating a bad team.

But are you seriously bragging about a 73 RPI? Lol.

73 RPI is bad. They still have a lot of work to do. Little room for error. Outside looking in.

Get my point now?

And if they win this weekend @ Temple, they'll be in the top 50.

And you know what Butler RPI is right now? 49. And you know what it'll be after beating St John's at home this weekend. Right around 50.

So if Cincy is ahead of Butler after this weekend, does that mean Butler has little room for error then?

[Xudash]

Let's look at the impact on the RPI from just 1 game....
Cincy is now up to #73. Up from 90 at the start of the week.
Houston now 126. up from 128 at the start of the week.

So Cincy went up 17 spots by winning a home game. What the heck?

Oh yeah, that's just what I said was going to happen.

You don't seem to post very much about Georgetown, as a Georgetown fan. You post a lot - too much, actually - about the AAC.

Why is that?

Have you seen Georgetown this year? Lets see what happens in the next 10 days. Right now- Georgetown is #96 in RPI and #69 in Ken Pom. Best win of the year? Wisconsin or Syracuse(only 2 top 100 wins right now). I'd love to beat Nova, X, and UConn- but just do not see it the way the team has played.

That doesn't explain your infatuation with the AAC. In fact, your response is neither cute nor clever. Why would your team being down be a legitimate excuse for spending as much time as you do on the AAC?

There isn't one other HLOH poster around here who invests as much time as you in posting about that conference and its members.