Which year of Big East better?

[billyjack]

This year is far better and it's not close. I feel that our top 4 all have the ability and expectation to make the second weekend. Also, the big east will at least get 5 teams in the tournament, one of Creighton, Georgetown, Seton Hall, or Marquette will separate themselves at some point. I would also argue that these four teams are better than they were last year and could win a game or two depending on the match up.

It's no lock at all that Big East gets 5...
Seton Hall. 14 games left, need to go 7-7 probably. 7 ranked games left.
Creighton. 14 games left. Need to go 8-6 probably. 7 ranked games left.
Marquette. 15 games left(1 OOC). Need to go 9-6 probably. 7 ranked games left.
Georgetown. 15 games left(1 OOC with UConn). Need to go 8-7 probably. 8 ranked games left.

like tonight is a HUGE game for Creighton. If they lose to PC they would need to go 8-5. With 3 games left vs DePaul/St John's. So 5-5 in those other 10 games, with 6 of them against the ranked teams.

Also and saw someone mention this somewhere- if one of those 4 does get in, they'll be almost certainly playing in the First 4.

On one thread, you say Butler is vulnerable cuz their defense is weak.

On this thread, you imply an enormous hurdle for SHU, CU, GU and MU by having to play "7 ranked games", though each has 2 of those games vs Butler, and 4 games vs Butler-PC, and so far those 4 bubble teams are a combined 1-0 so far (road win too) vs PC and Butler. PC is great, but young, and will be prone to off nights. These are really 7 opportunities each for strong resume building.

According to what you wrote, it looks like each of these 4 teams has a solid path to an NCAA bid. I mean, is it really so difficult to ask a team to go 7-7, or 8-6, or whatever. I'm assuming you are pessimistic on the BE getting that 5th bid, because you framed it as "it's no lock that the BE gets 5". I may be misinterpreting what you wrote though, so what percentage chance would you yourself put as the chance of getting a 5th bid?

The opportunities and paths to get at least 1 of these 4 bubble teams into the NCAA's is very favorable. In order to only get 4 NCAA bids, there will have to be a series of improbable results... there is a "possibility" that your worst-care scenario could take place, but a rational person should look at probabilities. Your path to worst-case is built like a Rube Goldberg machine.

So we waste ink debating Rube Goldberg machines of January 12th, and by January 20th as more results come in, an entirely new machine will be carted out in front of the public.

[stever20]

just looking-
Seton Hall- projected 7-7.
Creighton- projected 8-6.
Marquette- projected 4-11
Georgetown- projected 6-9

For Seton Hall-
Butler 58%
Providence 59%

For Creighton-
@ Marquette 56% is only one in 50's. Tonight's game with PC- is 64%. Starts a stretch of 3 games where they are the 3 games in Ken Pom that Creighton is projected to win that they have their lowest winning pct except for that Marquette game.

So right now, if Seton Hall and Creighton lose a game that they are less than a 60% chance of winning- they would both be on the wrong side of the bubble. With those losses not helping any of the other bubble teams out at all. Neither of those would be what one could say are improbable results at all. I'm not saying St Johns will beat Seton Hall and Creighton and that's going to knock them out, lets say that.

I'd probably say right now that I'd give the Big East like a 40% chance of getting at least 5 in. But then I would give the Big East like a 20% chance of getting 6 in quite frankly- as Seton Hall and Creighton both could do enough(without damaging each other).

[billyjack]

just looking-
Seton Hall- projected 7-7.
Creighton- projected 8-6.
Marquette- projected 4-11
Georgetown- projected 6-9

For Seton Hall-
Butler 58%
Providence 59%

For Creighton-
@ Marquette 56% is only one in 50's. Tonight's game with PC- is 64%. Starts a stretch of 3 games where they are the 3 games in Ken Pom that Creighton is projected to win that they have their lowest winning pct except for that Marquette game.

So right now, if Seton Hall and Creighton lose a game that they are less than a 60% chance of winning- they would both be on the wrong side of the bubble. With those losses not helping any of the other bubble teams out at all. Neither of those would be what one could say are improbable results at all. I'm not saying St Johns will beat Seton Hall and Creighton and that's going to knock them out, lets say that.

I'd probably say right now that I'd give the Big East like a 40% chance of getting at least 5 in. But then I would give the Big East like a 20% chance of getting 6 in quite frankly- as Seton Hall and Creighton both could do enough(without damaging each other).

Ok, I'd put it higher, but fair enough.

[stever20]

I think billyjack if some other team was in the position that Seton Hall was in, I'd be giving them a lot more of the benefit of the doubt. But just can't trust the Pirates.

Creighton is the one that I may be underestimating. These next 5 games are just huge. Providence(64), @ DePaul(68), Butler(63), @ Georgetown(45), and Seton Hall(70). Going 4-1 there would be huge. 5-0 and they are almost a lock quite frankly by that point.

Also I feel like Ken Pom is kind of short-changing PC to some degree. I could so easily see PC beating BOTH Creighton and Seton Hall on the road. If that happens, that puts both of them in trouble.

[MUPanther]

If the Big East this season ends up with a top heavy, let's say 4 bids, wouldn't last season be better with 6 bids?

It's not just about the number of bids. Seeding matters too. This year the BE might get more than one team on the top 2 lines and four on the top 4 lines, and there's still a chance that a fifth team gets in.

Knowing we had 6 locks last year and nobody on the bubble was sweet. I think when it's all said and done the Big East will get 5 in for this season.

[stever20]

really tough one for Creighton tonight obviously. They still have a chance, but they're now really going to have to win a game they're not supposed to win now. Looking the games they have the best shot of winning that they aren't supposed to- @ Georgetown(44%), Xavier(39%), @ PC(31%), or @ Butler(30%). Plus win the games they're supposed to win- with 3 games in the 60-70% range and also @ Marquette with 54%. Bottom line those 8 games- instead of going 4-4 against those now, they need to go 5-3 in.

Think it's probably good that they have a few extra days here before the game @ DePaul.

[stever20]

interesting. Teamrankings.com has a page that has probabilities of making the tourney....

Right now they have Big East with 4 locks just about Nova and X are at 100%. Butler is at 91% and PC at 80%(big diff is they have Butler as 16% of winning BET while PC only 4%- not sure I agree with that).
they have at 4.5 projected bids total...
Seton Hall 24%
Georgetown 20%
Creighton 20%
Marquette 3%

They have Seton Hall finishing only at 18-12 why so low for them.

Also-Right now they have Nova at a 70% chance of getting a 1 seed. Xavier at a 28% chance. In fact for Nova- they have the highest chance of getting a 1 seed in the country right now. X at 28% is #4 right now. Not too bad at all.

[stever20]

what sucks about this year- this year could have been a forget 6 bid year but a 7 bid year SO easily. If Marquette and Creighton schedule just a bit harder, and Georgetown doesn't lose to the teams they lost to- 7 is pretty reasonable. And frankly- 8 would have been SO possible as well!!! Ah well, would have could have should have.

[Hall2012]

I'm interested in revisiting this mainly out of frustration at Seton Hall winning 4 straight Big East games, with a possibility of stretching it to 7, without picking up a single meaningful, resume building (top 50) win. Maybe it's just flukey scheduling, but I can't help but feel like that wouldn't have been possible last year because the conference was so much stronger. Too many genres this year seem like they're about avoiding bad losses.

Seriously, seton hall may be better off losing their return game at Georgetown to pull the hoyas rpi closer to the top 50 and make the win they have meaningful.

Yeah, things didn't go so well in the tourney, but I think the league was better last year.

Right now we have 6 teams in the rpi top 100, last year we had six teams in the top 50. That means last year every other game was a potential resume builder. This

[DudeAnon]

I'm interested in revisiting this mainly out of frustration at Seton Hall winning 4 straight Big East games, with a possibility of stretching it to 7, without picking up a single meaningful, resume building (top 50) win. Maybe it's just flukey scheduling, but I can't help but feel like that wouldn't have been possible last year because the conference was so much stronger. Too many genres this year seem like they're about avoiding bad losses.

Seriously, seton hall may be better off losing their return game at Georgetown to pull the hoyas rpi closer to the top 50 and make the win they have meaningful.

Yeah, things didn't go so well in the tourney, but I think the league was better last year.

Right now we have 6 teams in the rpi top 100, last year we had six teams in the top 50. That means last year every other game was a potential resume builder. This

College basketball is a weird sport. As you said, by RPI (the most prominent metric) The Big East was definitely stronger last year. But ultimately, it seems rankings and your performance in the single-elimination tournament are all that matters.