Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Updated numbers for the ‘usual suspects’:

Today’s RPI Rankings

9 - Dayton (11-2) • SOS Rank # 8
44 - Gonzaga (11-3) • SOS Rank # 71
74 - Wichita State (7-5) • SOS Rank # 69
91 - Richmond (8-6) • SOS Rank # 50
95 - Connecticut (10-4) • SOS Rank # 138
104 - Virginia Commonwealth (10-5) • SOS Rank # 130
253 - Saint Louis (5-8) • SOS Rank # 173

[notkirkcameron]

#4 - The directional Florida's are in top 35 markets, which still makes them 2nd/3rd banana behind programs like UF, FSU, Miami... but a lot of that has to do with the fact that it's been Rice and Tulsa coming to town. What happens when it's Texas & Oklahoma instead? Conference realignment is a two-way street.

The other thing it does is open up Florida as recruiting territory when the Big XII can promise 1-3 games every four years to recruits in Florida (a state that produces 14% of FBS scholarship football players).

Cincinnati is a given if they expand. The question of who's the 12th is what's up for discussion. BYU stretches west, and the Big XII would rather look east; has all kinds of hassles with scheduling due to their non-Sundays rule, there's no travel partner for them (Iowa State by default).

You've hit on something by noting that UCF/USF are, at best, 4th banana in Florida behind the Canes, Noles, and Gators. What that means is that the strength of their "Top 35" markets is diluted.

For comparison's sake, think of Kansas City. KC is also a Top 35 market...but it's split three ways between Mizzou, K-State, and Kansas. I'm convinced this is part of the reason why the Big Ten never went for Mizzou, even when Mizzou had strong programs, and were begging the Big Ten to take them. Big Ten Network was already in St. Louis thanks to U of I, so adding Mizzou would only add one more market (KC) which was split three ways. Better to add a national program (Nebraska), and three large media markets (New York, Baltimore, DC) by adding Rutgers and Maryland. The Big Ten's programs would be the top dog locally (or at worst, undisputably one of them), and the markets have large numbers of expats and alumni from the other Big Ten schools.

So looking at Tampa and Orlando through a similar lens, let's be generous and say that UCF and USF each command a quarter of their market, with UF/FSU/UM taking the rest (and the rival Directional Florida taking none). It's admittedly an imperfect metric, but, if anything, such an estimate probably overestimates the level of support for each program in each market. Florida probably has a number of alumni from the rest of the SEC, and expats from the rest of the country cheering on their own alma maters back home. The Sunshine State doesn't exactly have a great reputation when it comes to supporting its home teams.

Tampa's Nielsen Market population is 1.9 million TV homes. A quarter of that is 475,000.
Orlando's Nielsen Market population is 1.5 million TV homes. A quarter of that is 375,000.

That 475,000 is just a little bigger than Dayton, Ohio (465,000).
That 375,000 is just a little bigger than Shreveport, Louisiana (368,000).

In contrast, BYU is the top banana in Salt Lake City (along with U of Utah), which should be noted, is also a "Top 35" market, but whose only other "big time" sports options are the Jazz and Real Salt Lake. If the Big 12 needs to expand, and BYU wants to come under their umbrella, that deal will be consummated rapidly.

[BEwannabe]

with Oklahoma easily making the National Championship I believe conference realignment based on that premise is gone. In my estimation , the force that will drive any further movement is the ability to conduct a huge revenue generating conference championship game. The B1G, I believe has a legitimate claim arguing some formula (division vs division) must be in place to conduct a championship game.

The extra conference game as Ohio State proved last year can make a difference in the process so I'm not completely dismissing what impact winning a conference championship game especially in convincing fashion. But other outcomes are also present, Oklahoma did not play in a conf championship game and earned a spot and losing in a conference championship will knock you out of contention. But always present in a conference championship scenario is a big payday for the leagues and networks.

Therefore I believe the conversation about how a league can have a conference championship is key. Will B1G, PAC12 and SEC allow ACC and Big12 to make up their own rules or will they be forced to comply with a like formula.

So I don't think the 4x16 discussion has anything to do with it but I do think there are other factors in play. I know the B1G best and I think the current East - West divisional make ups have issues especially moving forward with Ohio St, Michigan St and Michigan very much looking like the major football players. And 2 of those major players (Ohio St and Michigan) in any direction B1G considers (those 2 are why Rutgers and Maryland are even in the B1G).

So I think there are way more things driving realignment and certainly not a simplistic 4x16 direction.

Um...you MIGHT want to go back and check on that info.

I take it you're taking National Championship as in final game when I think it can be easy to interpret what I meant with Oklahoma reaching the series without a conference championship game. Expansion and league affiliation will happen as both are part of the dynamics of college sports. If Big XII doesn't get a championship game with 10 team then expansion happens rather quickly in my estimation because revenue for a football conference championship game is currently 20 mil split divided equally between conference affiliates. I don't see B1G and SEC allowing BigXII to get away with 10 team format. In any case, this next wave won't have any impact on the Big East.

[Masterofreality]

Updated numbers for the ‘usual suspects’:

Today’s RPI Rankings

9 - Dayton (11-2) • SOS Rank # 8
44 - Gonzaga (11-3) • SOS Rank # 71
74 - Wichita State (7-5) • SOS Rank # 69
91 - Richmond (8-6) • SOS Rank # 50
95 - Connecticut (10-4) • SOS Rank # 138
104 - Virginia Commonwealth (10-5) • SOS Rank # 130
253 - Saint Louis (5-8) • SOS Rank # 173

There are no "suspects". You lost by 29 to Xavier. Keep dreaming. League isn't expanding.

[JPSchmack]

Updated numbers for the ‘usual suspects’:
9 - Dayton (11-2) • SOS Rank # 8
44 - Gonzaga (11-3) • SOS Rank # 71
74 - Wichita State (7-5) • SOS Rank # 69
91 - Richmond (8-6) • SOS Rank # 50
95 - Connecticut (10-4) • SOS Rank # 138
104 - Virginia Commonwealth (10-5) • SOS Rank # 130
253 - Saint Louis (5-8) • SOS Rank # 173

RPI/power ratings are meaningless for conference expansion consideration. They are derived from THE SCHEDULE. OOC schedules change every year, switching conference changes the other 19-22 games.

And Wichita State, UConn and VCU aren’t usual suspects.

There are no "suspects". You lost by 29 to Xavier. Keep dreaming. League isn't expanding.

The elitist/superiority behaviors of Big East fans with regard to conference expansion are hilarious, inconsistent and backwards.

Dayton’s “not good enough” for the Big East?
A. You don’t need teams better than the 10 of you. You need a team that’s simply better than “everyone else” not in the BCS/AAC/Big East now.

B. A school that wins a ton of games OOC, wins in the NCAA Tournament, and RARELY EVER BEATS YOU? That’s the freaking PERFECT expansion candidate. Xavier should be the school saying “We want Dayton!” and Providence should be saying “uh, no thanks. We don’t want them beating us, like they did in the NCAA Tournament last year and maybe displacing us on the at-large board.”

C. My post got buried because mine need to be approved for some reason, but the viewpoints on the quality of team needed for Big East expansion are totally backward: You don’t need an NCAA caliber team to make the league better. You have plenty. You need someone absorbing conference losses for you, so all your NCAA caliber teams don’t finish 6-12 in Big East play like Seton Hall did last year.

Seton Hall, Creighton, Marquette and even DePaul could be NCAA Tournament teams if the ADMINISTRATIVE side of the Big East was set up.

Do you elitist Big East fans think that Seton Hall last year would have wiped the floor with the 5th place team in the A-10? Of course you do. But the A-10’s fifth was much closer to an NCAA bid (66 RPI, 21-9) than Seton Hall (95 RPI, 16-15) was. Because URI had the five terrible teams at the bottom of the league to beat the tar out of, while Hall went 3-3 vs peer schools in Marquette, Creighton and DePaul.


You shouldn’t look at “Best basketball program” for expansion. You should be looking at “Schools in markets untested by power schools that we could control with the Big East brand, that win OOC games against a bunch of slappies, and would go 1-17 in the Big East putting Seton Hall and Marquette into the dance.”

[JPSchmack]

You've hit on something by noting that UCF/USF are, at best, 4th banana in Florida behind the Canes, Noles, and Gators. What that means is that the strength of their "Top 35" markets is diluted.

So looking at Tampa and Orlando through a similar lens, let's be generous and say that UCF and USF each command a quarter of their market, with UF/FSU/UM taking the rest (and the rival Directional Florida taking none). It's admittedly an imperfect metric, but, if anything, such an estimate probably overestimates the level of support for each program in each market.

In contrast, BYU is the top banana in Salt Lake City (along with U of Utah), which should be noted, is also a "Top 35" market, but whose only other "big time" sports options are the Jazz and Real Salt Lake. If the Big 12 needs to expand, and BYU wants to come under their umbrella, that deal will be consummated rapidly.

I generally agree with you… but two points:
#1 - BYU can’t be a top banana in SLC when Utah’s there. If the market is split, the market is split. But that’s not a huge market to begin with, and Utah wins because of Pac-12 affiliation. Lines are drawn in the state along LDS affiliation.

#2 - The conference affiliation is key. College sports fans & viewers are going to watch: THEIR TEAM first, and the BEST GAME second. In Orlando and Tampa, people may be Florida, Florida State, Miami fans because they watch the GOOD GAMES on TV. But being a Big XII member is going to make UCF and USF games good games against Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, West Virginia in football. Big XII football is better than ACC football. Non-alums in Orlando and Tampa might pick UCF/USF vs a Big XII ranked team than Florida State vs Wake Forest. The Big XII can have more viewers in Florida by adding those two schools. Plus, UCF is a massive school. Their students are probably Miami, Florida, Florida State fans because UCF has been C-USA/American. Their popularity increases when they get the Big XII brand and play those great football schools week after week. And their recruiting gets better and they become competitive.

The UCF/USF tandem would be better for the Big XII than BYU. BYU gets access from the Big XII, the Big XII gets more TV benefits and more recruiting benefits.


Now I want to combine those two topics, Big East expansion and the market competition aspect:

Dayton’s an overlapping market with Xavier
Saint Louis is dominated by Illinois, Kansas, Missouri fans (plus the MVC)
Richmond is split between UR/VCU, and there’s Virginia, Virginia Tech fans.


IF there was a private, Catholic school that won OOC basketball games… that exists in a market with a lot of people, and very few schools that have big basketball or big football as competition… wouldn’t all those people in the region become Big East basketball viewers if you invited that team?

And if they finished at the bottom of the Big East standings, wouldn’t that give the 10 of you more Big East wins and put a team like last year’s Seton Hall into the NCAA Tournament?

Isn’t that better for everyone than adding a powerful school in a market with tons of competition, that will win Big East games and bunch everyone up even more?

It’s simple:
10-teams = 90-90 in Big East play. The bottom four teams were 20-52 last season, and 21-51 the year before.

12-teams = 108-108 in Big East play. The NEW GUYS will probably go 6-30 or worse combined, which makes your current ten teams a combined 102-78, 12 or more games better. That makes you a SEVEN OR EIGHT BID LEAGUE, and all go to the current 10 teams.


Makes sense, right?

[MakScratcher3]

Updated numbers for the ‘usual suspects’:

Today’s RPI Rankings

9 - Dayton (11-2) • SOS Rank # 8
44 - Gonzaga (11-3) • SOS Rank # 71
74 - Wichita State (7-5) • SOS Rank # 69
91 - Richmond (8-6) • SOS Rank # 50
95 - Connecticut (10-4) • SOS Rank # 138
104 - Virginia Commonwealth (10-5) • SOS Rank # 130
253 - Saint Louis (5-8) • SOS Rank # 173

There are no "suspects". You lost by 29 to Xavier. Keep dreaming. League isn't expanding.

Classic. While I initially wanted no part of playing UD, as my wife/wife's family are all UD grads and huge fans, I absolutely love being able to bring that game up whenever they try to compare the teams this season. It immediately stops any further discussion of college basketball relating to UD.

Some of you will appreciate this -- when my wife's family came over for Christmas Eve 2 weeks ago, I turned on the TV and went to the Xavier/Dayton game that I still had saved on my recorded shows list. I fast forwarded the game to the end, when Xavier was up 32 pts, with less than a minute remaining in the game and paused the TV at this exact moment:


When they walked in to our family room and saw what was on the TV, I can't even describe their reactions. The father-in-law laughed and shook his head; the mother-in-law (who despises Xavier) was absolutely pissed. I was pretty proud of myself -- even my wife thought it was funny, as she isn't die-hard like her parents. All in good fun and well worth the reactions.

[NJRedman]

Bring on Dayton, who cares what X fans think.

[FenwayFriar]

When's v. 2016 coming out?

[Masterofreality]

Not "elitist".

There is no need to expand this league, despite how badly some on the outside want it to happen.

And we're not "looking for anyone for expansion". No one I know connected with any schools in this league want it to expand. Round Robin schedule and good TV money split. All schools of like mind. The "suspects" are the product of a insanely delusional imagination.

As I said. Those on the outside, keep dreaming.