Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[Xudash]

People keep saying 16x4 because it sounds cute, I don't think there is any merit behind it; even less if the playoff expands to 8 eventually.

Don't think eventually is anytime soon.

Firstly, Re the contract, $500mm over 12 years; $41mm per year. Ten schools, so $4.1mm per school per year.

Chatter and rumors held that Fox would "true-up" the media agreement to keep the per team payout the same in the event the conference decided to go to 12 teams. All that noise went on surrounding the formation of the BE.

4x16? I used to think so, but they're essentially getting what they want with the regular season and with 4 conferences having a championship game.

Besides, and here is my key point: playoff format isn't driving the bus, television revenue is driving the bus. More to the point, conference television package revenue is driving the bus. Notwithstanding what is going on with media technology, that is still a fundamental reality.

I agree with you - eventually isn't exactly the word for it.

[DeltaV]

Agreed. I really doubt that 8 happens with the current conference system. The round of 8 is supposed to replace the conference title games to keep the number of games down. I highly doubt that any current conference would be willing to give up the $$$ of their own title game. Now if a 16X4 came to fruition, all bets are off.

Think they would ever go to a 6 team playoff, where 1 and 2 get byes? That would near guarantee that each conference gets a piece of the pie, and throws a bone to the G5/Domers to keep them from getting too upset about not getting to play at the big boys table.

...
no, it's a 12 year contract. 9 years to go after this year.

Ahh, I stand corrected.

[stever20]

Agreed. I really doubt that 8 happens with the current conference system. The round of 8 is supposed to replace the conference title games to keep the number of games down. I highly doubt that any current conference would be willing to give up the $$$ of their own title game. Now if a 16X4 came to fruition, all bets are off.

Think they would ever go to a 6 team playoff, where 1 and 2 get byes? That would near guarantee that each conference gets a piece of the pie, and throws a bone to the G5/Domers to keep them from getting too upset about not getting to play at the big boys table.

...
no, it's a 12 year contract. 9 years to go after this year.

Ahh, I stand corrected.

I don't think it goes to 6. it'll be 8. going 6 with the byes actually IMO puts the 1 and 2 seeds at a disadvantage. Imagine if Oklahoma had played iowa and #3 Michigan St had played Stanford. That would be a pretty good advantage for those 2 teams then to play against 1/2 teams who had been off then for possibly 4 weeks with 3/6 and 4/5 having played perhaps the week before.

[BEwannabe]

with Oklahoma easily making the National Championship I believe conference realignment based on that premise is gone. In my estimation , the force that will drive any further movement is the ability to conduct a huge revenue generating conference championship game. The B1G, I believe has a legitimate claim arguing some formula (division vs division) must be in place to conduct a championship game.

The extra conference game as Ohio State proved last year can make a difference in the process so I'm not completely dismissing what impact winning a conference championship game especially in convincing fashion. But other outcomes are also present, Oklahoma did not play in a conf championship game and earned a spot and losing in a conference championship will knock you out of contention. But always present in a conference championship scenario is a big payday for the leagues and networks.

Therefore I believe the conversation about how a league can have a conference championship is key. Will B1G, PAC12 and SEC allow ACC and Big12 to make up their own rules or will they be forced to comply with a like formula.

So I don't think the 4x16 discussion has anything to do with it but I do think there are other factors in play. I know the B1G best and I think the current East - West divisional make ups have issues especially moving forward with Ohio St, Michigan St and Michigan very much looking like the major football players. And 2 of those major players (Ohio St and Michigan) in any direction B1G considers (those 2 are why Rutgers and Maryland are even in the B1G).

So I think there are way more things driving realignment and certainly not a simplistic 4x16 direction.

[JPSchmack]

The 4x16 is what people who like symmetry talk about. Back in 2003 when the ACC was raiding Miami, BC and (as it developed) VT; it was “Everyone is going to 12!”

We never had a single day where the power conferences were all at 12. The ACC, Pac-12 and Big Ten went to 12 teams… and it left the Big XII at 10 teams. Before the Big XII got back to 12 the SEC and Big Ten went to 14.

What makes anyone think that leagues acting independently out of self interest will ever be in the exact same situation where they have an optimal configuration of 16 each? It’ll never happen unless rule changes force it.

The Big XII will expand if their proposal fails and they have to have 12 to hold a CCG in football. In which case, Cincy is headed to the Big XII with one other school... and the debate will wage on their message boards (well, it already has) over teams like UConn, BYU, Houston, USF, Tulane, Memphis (And BTW, the Big XII should probably go Cincy, USF, UCF and Memphis).

[JPSchmack]

Big East expansion is totally independent from that conversation. The Big East’s decision is their own. And the Big East should have 12, because 12 is better.

125 pages of amusing discussion of who’s worthy… it amuses me to no end. You’re all about the best of the best, and what each school’s Ken Pom/RPI ratings are, and NCAA bids and NCAA runs. It’s laughable because 19 of 31 games for each school are CONFERENCE GAMES.

That makes:
A - Ken Pom/RPI ratings, which are dependent on SCHEDULE, 61% freaking meaningless (actually, way more)
B - A Big East team is losing in 19+ of the 31+ conference games each, so you can’t send 10 or 12 teams to the dance anyway.


All the talk of who’s worthy of Big East inclusion is pretty nuts because LITERALLY ANY TWO TEAMS THAT BEAT 9+ CHUMPS OOC MAKES THE BIG EAST A BETTER CONFERENCE.

Last season: 94-32 OOC (.746), 90-90 conference.
Top Six: 70-38 in Big East play.
Bottom Four: 20-52 in Big East play

Which is why 7th place Seton Hall was 6-12, 16-15 and missed the NCAA Tournament. If they were 9-9 in Big East play and 19-12 overall, they’d totally dancing. Of course, it’s practically impossible to have seven teams in a 10-team league 9-9 or better, unless your champ is 11-7 and you’re all seeded as 9-10-11 seeds in the dance (which you wouldn’t want either).

You bring in two private catholic schools from new markets that can win nine OOC games against inferior teams, but don’t have the Big East pedigree (that you don’t think anyone else in the nation possesses anyway) and will get rocked by your superior 10 teams:

OOC 112-38 (.747)

Top Six: 70-38
Bottom 2: 2-34
Other 4: 36-36, a 16-game improvement. Plus your #5 and #6 teams get a “first round” win over #11 and #12 in the Big East Tourney.

Conference play is a zero sum game. Seton Hall, Creighton and Marquette are NCAA calibre programs, who have gone 2-8 vs better NCAA caliber programs, split with each other and all been NIT programs.

You can bring in the best of the best — let’s say we just picked up the entire campuses of Dayton and Gonzaga and put them in Pittsburgh and Boston - and beat each other up EVEN MORE, and now you can turn FIVE NCAA caliber programs into ONE BID total.

Or you can add two teams to absorb all 1/3 of your conference losses, and your nine NCAA caliber programs can get 8 bids.

[notkirkcameron]

The 4x16 is what people who like symmetry talk about. Back in 2003 when the ACC was raiding Miami, BC and (as it developed) VT; it was “Everyone is going to 12!”

We never had a single day where the power conferences were all at 12. The ACC, Pac-12 and Big Ten went to 12 teams… and it left the Big XII at 10 teams. Before the Big XII got back to 12 the SEC and Big Ten went to 14.

What makes anyone think that leagues acting independently out of self interest will ever be in the exact same situation where they have an optimal configuration of 16 each? It’ll never happen unless rule changes force it.

The Big XII will expand if their proposal fails and they have to have 12 to hold a CCG in football. In which case, Cincy is headed to the Big XII with one other school... and the debate will wage on their message boards (well, it already has) over teams like UConn, BYU, Houston, USF, Tulane, Memphis (And BTW, the Big XII should probably go Cincy, USF, UCF and Memphis).

If the Big 12 has to expand, BYU and Cincinnati are the only oranges where the juice is conceivably worth the squeeze. Directional Floridas don't grow the pie enough in either major revenue sport to convince Texas and Oklahoma to take a smaller slice.

[JPSchmack]

If the Big 12 has to expand, BYU and Cincinnati are the only oranges where the juice is conceivably worth the squeeze. Directional Floridas don't grow the pie enough in either major revenue sport to convince Texas and Oklahoma to take a smaller slice.

#1 - The pie would be grown by the CCG.
#2 - The Big XII has a provision with their TV deals with ESPN/Fox; the checks would stay the same amount, there'd just be two more checks.
#3 - The Big XII teams keep their own third-tier rights and are not sharing. Which remain unchanged. USF/UCF's inability to grow the pie would be their problem. Except more viewers would want to see a LHN game in Florida than in Utah, so LHN might make more money.
#4 - The directional Florida's are in top 35 markets, which still makes them 2nd/3rd banana behind programs like UF, FSU, Miami... but a lot of that has to do with the fact that it's been Rice and Tulsa coming to town. What happens when it's Texas & Oklahoma instead? Conference realignment is a two-way street.

The other thing it does is open up Florida as recruiting territory when the Big XII can promise 1-3 games every four years to recruits in Florida (a state that produces 14% of FBS scholarship football players).

Cincinnati is a given if they expand. The question of who's the 12th is what's up for discussion. BYU stretches west, and the Big XII would rather look east; has all kinds of hassles with scheduling due to their non-Sundays rule, there's no travel partner for them (Iowa State by default).

[NJRedman]

with Oklahoma easily making the National Championship I believe conference realignment based on that premise is gone. In my estimation , the force that will drive any further movement is the ability to conduct a huge revenue generating conference championship game. The B1G, I believe has a legitimate claim arguing some formula (division vs division) must be in place to conduct a championship game.

The extra conference game as Ohio State proved last year can make a difference in the process so I'm not completely dismissing what impact winning a conference championship game especially in convincing fashion. But other outcomes are also present, Oklahoma did not play in a conf championship game and earned a spot and losing in a conference championship will knock you out of contention. But always present in a conference championship scenario is a big payday for the leagues and networks.

Therefore I believe the conversation about how a league can have a conference championship is key. Will B1G, PAC12 and SEC allow ACC and Big12 to make up their own rules or will they be forced to comply with a like formula.

So I don't think the 4x16 discussion has anything to do with it but I do think there are other factors in play. I know the B1G best and I think the current East - West divisional make ups have issues especially moving forward with Ohio St, Michigan St and Michigan very much looking like the major football players. And 2 of those major players (Ohio St and Michigan) in any direction B1G considers (those 2 are why Rutgers and Maryland are even in the B1G).

So I think there are way more things driving realignment and certainly not a simplistic 4x16 direction.

Um...you MIGHT want to go back and check on that info.

[Xudash]

The 4x16 is what people who like symmetry talk about. Back in 2003 when the ACC was raiding Miami, BC and (as it developed) VT; it was “Everyone is going to 12!”

We never had a single day where the power conferences were all at 12. The ACC, Pac-12 and Big Ten went to 12 teams… and it left the Big XII at 10 teams. Before the Big XII got back to 12 the SEC and Big Ten went to 14.

What makes anyone think that leagues acting independently out of self interest will ever be in the exact same situation where they have an optimal configuration of 16 each? It’ll never happen unless rule changes force it.

The Big XII will expand if their proposal fails and they have to have 12 to hold a CCG in football. In which case, Cincy is headed to the Big XII with one other school... and the debate will wage on their message boards (well, it already has) over teams like UConn, BYU, Houston, USF, Tulane, Memphis (And BTW, the Big XII should probably go Cincy, USF, UCF and Memphis).

If the Big 12 has to expand, BYU and Cincinnati are the only oranges where the juice is conceivably worth the squeeze. Directional Floridas don't grow the pie enough in either major revenue sport to convince Texas and Oklahoma to take a smaller slice.

Ironical isn't it, that Florida cannot produce squeeze-worthy oranges in this case. I do agree with you, though.