Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[DudeAnon]

Call me crazy, but isn't 4x16 the inevitability here? The football playoff is the golden goose. It seems as long as 1 conference is getting left out people will be unhappy.

And if 4x16 is the case, its going to be a lot more than UCONN who might be on the outside looking in.

[stever20]

Call me crazy, but isn't 4x16 the inevitability here? The football playoff is the golden goose. It seems as long as 1 conference is getting left out people will be unhappy.

And if 4x16 is the case, its going to be a lot more than UCONN who might be on the outside looking in.

I don't think 4x16 is necessarily the case at all. Pac 12 a HUGE reason why.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Call me crazy, but isn't 4x16 the inevitability here? The football playoff is the golden goose. It seems as long as 1 conference is getting left out people will be unhappy.

And if 4x16 is the case, its going to be a lot more than UCONN who might be on the outside looking in.

I don't think 4x16 is necessarily the case at all. Pac 12 a HUGE reason why.

Why because they don't want to print up new shirts?

Scenario: Pac12 and Fox sit down at a table and they mutually decide they want a big piece of the Southwest / TX market.
They throw an ungodly amount of $ on the table and Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor and Texas Tech join up. Pac 12 becomes Pac 16. Not so outlandish of a thought these days.

[stever20]

Call me crazy, but isn't 4x16 the inevitability here? The football playoff is the golden goose. It seems as long as 1 conference is getting left out people will be unhappy.

And if 4x16 is the case, its going to be a lot more than UCONN who might be on the outside looking in.

I don't think 4x16 is necessarily the case at all. Pac 12 a HUGE reason why.

Why because they don't want to print up new shirts?

Scenario: Pac12 and Fox sit down at a table and they mutually decide they want a big piece of the Southwest / TX market.
They throw an ungodly amount of $ on the table and Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor and Texas Tech join up. Pac 12 becomes Pac 16. Not so outlandish of a thought these days.

Fox isn't the only share holder with the Pac 12. ESPN is. I think the last thing ESPN wants really is a P4. Also with the cable stuff right now- don't see them wanting to pay a ton for it.

Also with your scenario, Oklahoma St would be in with Texas, Oklahoma, and either Baylor or Texas Tech. Don't think for a second that Oklahoma would be allowed to leave w/o OSU being taken care of, and don't see OSU going to the SEC.

[SJHooper]

It would be absolutely hilarious to see UConn left out while teams like Cincy, Memphis, etc. get poached.

UConn like almost all the former Big East juggernauts have never been the same since their departure. Cuse had major scandals and their HOF all world coach is retiring very soon. SJ has beat them the past 2 times. Pitt has been "blah". They will rattle off a few wins here and there but nowhere near the perennial top 10 team they used to be. Louisville is still good but they are not playing like a blue blood and Pitino has a major scandal that will cost them. UConn had their HOF coach retire and yes Ollie's team won the championship but it was really Ollie using Calhoun's players. UConn is still far from a blue blood like they were in the Big East. They are stuck in a terrible mid major conference and they are in big trouble the longer they are kept out of the F5. They risk becoming irrelevant years down the line of AAC torture.

The day Cuse and Pitt left I panicked. I really thought major hoops was over for St. John's and the rest of the other teams left over. I thought the media would call us mid major, we would have 1 team ranked at most every year, and have 2 or 3 bids at most. I didn't think recruits would come the way they did in the original Big East. I figured they'd see us as a 1AA instead of a 1A conference. Thank GOD I was wrong on all counts and really couldn't have been more wrong. The Big East has been shockingly good the last few years. The only possible critique has been the tourney performance, but that is 100% luck. Some years none of our teams will advance to the 2nd round. Some years a few will. Some years we will have 2 in the Elite 8. You just never know. The important thing is just to keep getting teams in the tourney and taking care of OOC. Eventually some teams will break through in March.

[anXUfan]

Four conferences where it takes at least 2 seasons to to have played all the other members? I'm not a fan of college football at all, but I don't think I'd enjoy the 4x16 model if I was. Nor do I see a major conference electing to simply disband to facilitate the transition.

But I've been surprised by many of the changes made, and the conferences and rivalries ruined, by realignment already. What do I know?

[cu blujs]

No way does Texas give up what it has going right now. Heck it doesn't even have to win to rake in untold millions. And, there is a Texas size ego that will not allow it to move unless on its own terms, and I don't see UCLA, USC or most other schools of the P12 accepting Texas's terms. Do you think the other PAC12 schools would let it keep its Longhorn channel? What incentive does OU have for going elsewhere? What's it going to get from the P12 that it doesn't have now (and fewer teams to compete against)? The committee has shown that it will take a one-loss BigXII champion without a conference championship game. So, no real incentive there. And, fewer teams to divvy up shares. More realignment may come, but it I don't see any way it starts with a Texas or any other Big XII team moving elsewhere. If anything, I could see them going after Cincinnati or even Louisville to try to grab some of the televisions in that part of the country.

[GumbyDamnit!]

OSU instead of Baylor or Tex Tech: fine. Doesn't really matter. But it is a realistic scenario that could happen. Point being, the Pac 12 could easily become the Pac 16.

In terms of the BigXII--the most logical target of expansion vultures--there is precedent, and they are the most vulnerable at 10. SEC already grabbed Texas A&M and Mizzou. Adding two more surely would not be that difficult. B1G grabbed Nebraska. PAC already grabbed CO. I could easily see any of those conferences trying to lure another couple of teams.

And with all the "Texas holds all the cards with their Longhorn Network" talk, at some point they will be faced with a tough decision. They can either take the short term $ or put themselves in position for big money for 50 years. (ND might be faced with a similar scenario). Some decisions can be made without any of their input or knowledge. If I know that the B1G and the SEC are going to be aggressive and proactive to get to 16 (2 eight team divisions), do I want to be sitting around a Big XII carcass without OU & OSU, or without Baylor, trying to decide whether to add Cincy, Memphis or UCF? Or would I rather be in a conference with other REAL football schools, in complete control of my destiny.

None of us know exactly what will happen but I think the 4x16 makes as much or more sense than any other scenario.

[pki1998]

No way does Texas give up what it has going right now. Heck it doesn't even have to win to rake in untold millions. And, there is a Texas size ego that will not allow it to move unless on its own terms, and I don't see UCLA, USC or most other schools of the P12 accepting Texas's terms. Do you think the other PAC12 schools would let it keep its Longhorn channel? What incentive does OU have for going elsewhere? What's it going to get from the P12 that it doesn't have now (and fewer teams to compete against)? The committee has shown that it will take a one-loss BigXII champion without a conference championship game. So, no real incentive there. And, fewer teams to divvy up shares. More realignment may come, but it I don't see any way it starts with a Texas or any other Big XII team moving elsewhere. If anything, I could see them going after Cincinnati or even Louisville to try to grab some of the televisions in that part of the country.

I don't see any ACC school leaving for the Big 12. The Big 12 is only as stable as Texas wants it to be. And if the 4 x 16 model is inevitable, its the Big 12 that has to be destroyed. Otherwise, were does the PAC 12 get their additional four schools? Future Expansion of the ACC, BIG, PAC12, and SEC depends on three schools Texas, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma. The ordering of those schools was purposeful. Texas is truly the crown jewel of conference expansion. Texas could join any conference if they agreed to play by the same rules as everyone else. If Texas leaves, the Big 12 is done. Oklahoma would likely follow them to their new conference, and it would finally be the seismic change that would force Notre Dame to give up football independence. Notre Dame would be the next most likely to start a change reaction. Notre Dame to the BIG would result in another team (BC, Syracuse, Virginia) being stolen from the ACC. Likewise if Notre Dame joined the ACC as a full member, I assume the ACC would choose between Cincinnati and Connecticut. The Big Ten would like seek vengeance against the ACC for taking the team they always wanted. For the SEC, Oklahoma could be used as a way to get Texas to join the SEC. Texas might decide that the Big12 is beneath them at that point and choose the SEC to keep their two biggest historical rivals (Oklahoma and Texas A&M) as conference games. There would be pressure from the state governments for Oklahoma to take Oklahoma State, and Texas to take Baylor or Texas Tech with them. The Pac12 could make a play to add Oklahoma and Kansas to get up to 14 schools, as a way to force Texas to join. This would be a great move because they could then pull in Baylor to get to 16.

I don't see any of those scenarios happening anytime soon so the most likely scenario is Big 12 adding 2+ teams (BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Houston, Memphis, or South Florida). Which is why I am surprised that the ACC has not added Cincinnati. If Texas doesn't go to the SEC, the ACC will likely get raided by both the SEC, and the Big 10. Might as well have your best expansion candidate locked up before that happens. In the long run I see the following happening

1) Pac 12 adds Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Baylor
2) Big 10 adds Notre Dame and Boston College (Added bonus of helping out with the Big Ten Hockey Conference)
3) SEC adds NC State and Oklahoma State
4) ACC adds Cincinnati, West Virginia, Connecticut and scratches its head for a long time to come up with one more school (Maybe convincing Villanova or Georgetown to upgrade to FBS, Maybe Temple or UMASS out of complete desperation. Texas Tech just to get a foot in the Texas Recruiting Game, Memphis because there is no other option)

Biggest Losers in realignment
Iowa State
Kansas State
TCU
Texas Tech (Maybe)
BYU

[anXUfan]

Doesn't every F5 conference but the SEC have a Grant of Rights agreement in place? Doesn't that essentially block any team from leaving the ACC, B1G, P12 or B12? Won't it take at least 5 more years for those agreements to expire?