Non-Conference Strength of Schedule

[stever20]

1 thing about the conference RPI. Today will be it's highest it'll be for the rest of the season...

look at what's getting added rest of the year....
Penn 4-6
Temple 5-5
IUPUI 4-10
Coppin St 0-11
Presbyterian 2-7
Stetson 2-9
UConn 7-3

so 24-51 will be added to the 50% pot.

for those that say Coppin St is 2-11- their 2 wins- D2 teams.

[xusandy]

This AM sees Louisville with the #6 KenPom ranking, just ahead of Villanova and Xavier (at #7 and #8.) Yet I see that Louisville has a NCSOS of #321, while both Nova and X are in the top 100 of NCSOS. Looking at Louisville's actual schedule, I see many stirring victories -- over Samford, North Florida, Hartford, St. Francis of NY, St. Louis, Kennesaw State, Eastern Michigan, Western Kentucky, and (just last night) over the mighty Kangaroos of the University of Missouri@Kansas City.

I get that since every one of those games was decided by 20+ points, Louisville's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings are both pretty damn good! And of course Louisville's only loss was to #1 Michigan State by 4 at their place. So I'm not disputing that Louisville is a good team, but I am just wondering how a pretty sophisticated computer program, developed and tweaked over many years by a team of genius basketball junkies, can spit out a result that puts a team with one loss and 9 wins over teams that aren't even in the top 150 (Western Kentucky, at #161, is the highest rated team the 'Ville has beaten) AHEAD of a 12-0 Xavier team, which has 7 wins, 6 by 10+ points, over teams ranked higher than Louisville's BEST win. Also, Xavier beat WKU by 31, while Louisville beat them by "only" 22.

As for Nova, they only have 5 wins over teams ranked ahead of the Ville's best win, and they have 2 away loses to top 5 teams instead of Louisville's 1 loss. Still, I'd take Nova's record anytime if asked to compare the two teams.

Bottom Line #1: The computer rankings ain't gospel.
Bottom Line #2: I'll take Kentucky in next week's Kentucky-Louisville game at whatever point spread is offered.

[stever20]

Louisville by the RPI- has played 4 teams at 200 or worse in the current RPI. Hartford, St Francis NY, Saint Louis, and Kennesaw St. 4 teams in the RPI top 100 right now. That'll change I think- don't see UMKC or E Michigan sticking.

The thing is, for teams like Nova, Xavier, and Louisville- the OOC SOS doesn't mean much. It means far more for teams like Marquette who will be on the bubble almost certainly. And by any measure their OOC schedule just isn't good. It's similar to what we saw in football with Baylor, or later North Carolina. If you are on the bubble- you have got to challenge yourself.

[ChelseaFriar]

Below is PC's schedule from last season. From what I recall, the SOS was Top 10ish (can anyone confirm?).

I think the key to this schedule was that teams like Albany, Stony Brook and Yale had strong showings in their conferences. Obviously playing Kentucky helped and ND turned out to have their best season in a while.

But I think the most important thing was that many of the bad teams we played were actually good in their conference.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/2507/year/2015/providence-friars

[stever20]

Below is PC's schedule from last season. From what I recall, the SOS was Top 10ish (can anyone confirm?).

I think the key to this schedule was that teams like Albany, Stony Brook and Yale had strong showings in their conferences. Obviously playing Kentucky helped and ND turned out to have their best season in a while.

But I think the most important thing was that many of the bad teams we played were actually good in their conference.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/2507/year/2015/providence-friars

last year- PC OOC SOS was 15 and total was 10...

the thing with PC's OOC last year, they really only scheduled 3 teams they assumed would be dogs. Navy, Binghamton, and Brown. Instead of Cupcake St, they went out and tried to play some teams. 7 games in the OOC schedule.

[BEX]

X RPI 1 SOS 1

[NovaBall]

Kenpom also doesn't start the season fresh. He uses the last few years trends for teams. It weeds out as the season progresses.