6 tournament teams again this year

[FriarJ]

Non conference schedule didn't matter at all in the old Big East. PC had one year where 9 out of 10 games in a row were against ranked opponents

yes and no. You had to if you had a schedule like what Marquette had- be pretty much either undefeated with it, or like 1 loss. Or go in the conference and be like 11-7. You can't schedule like what Marquette did this year, go 8-10 in conference, and make the tourney. That never happens.

Folks take Villanova back in 2012-13 season. They were 20-13, 10-8 in conference play with wins over Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, Marquette, and Georgetown. They were 9-4 in OOC play. But their OOC SOS was 106. Overall SOS was #17. If Nova had played Marquette's schedule that year, It's no where near as comfortable as it was- and no lock that they are in.

Yes, I should have quoted the post but I was responding to the post about Cincy's 2011 OOC ranking. In this league you better have a top 40-50 OOC SOS and you better win some games, otherwise you are going to have to really roll in the conference and this is a league of a bunch of 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 10-6 teams, any better record than that and you are a great team and certainly not a bubble team and frankly had probably taken care of business in the OOC as well.

[stever20]

I think the Selection Committee made it clear that you have to play the Top 25/Top 50 teams and win some. We are very fortunate in the BE that we don't need to go out of the conference for this type of competition. We heard a lot of whining and bitching from dayton last year that there 25 wins against the lower two thirds of the A-10 and buy games should have counted for something. The Committee didn't see it that way, and if they don't win the game @ VCU the last week of the season, they were OUT. Schedule up in the OOC if you can't get the games in Conference!

Sorry but I disagree totally with this. Watch what happens with Marquette or Creighton if they are 9-9 in conference play. The OOC will bite them in the rear end. You can't just schedule as dreadfully as those 2 and expect to get in, regardless of the conference(unless you are like 11-7 or better in the conference). The OOC schedules have improved tremendously across the board lately in the other conferences.

[stever20]

Non conference schedule didn't matter at all in the old Big East. PC had one year where 9 out of 10 games in a row were against ranked opponents

yes and no. You had to if you had a schedule like what Marquette had- be pretty much either undefeated with it, or like 1 loss. Or go in the conference and be like 11-7. You can't schedule like what Marquette did this year, go 8-10 in conference, and make the tourney. That never happens.

Folks take Villanova back in 2012-13 season. They were 20-13, 10-8 in conference play with wins over Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, Marquette, and Georgetown. They were 9-4 in OOC play. But their OOC SOS was 106. Overall SOS was #17. If Nova had played Marquette's schedule that year, It's no where near as comfortable as it was- and no lock that they are in.

Yes, I should have quoted the post but I was responding to the post about Cincy's 2011 OOC ranking. In this league you better have a top 40-50 OOC SOS and you better win some games, otherwise you are going to have to really roll in the conference and this is a league of a bunch of 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 10-6 teams, any better record than that and you are a great team and certainly not a bubble team and frankly had probably taken care of business in the OOC as well.

I don't think you have to have a top 40-50 OOC SOS. I mean- Xavier is 46 best. Georgetown 75, Nova 85 PC 106, St John's 135, DePaul 159. All 6 of those are fine(4 for sure, and I think DePaul and St John's are ok as well). It's the Butler at 206, Seton Hall at 278, Creighton at 284, and Marquette at 332 that are problematic(Butler a bit less so).

[ChelseaFriar]

I think the Selection Committee made it clear that you have to play the Top 25/Top 50 teams and win some. We are very fortunate in the BE that we don't need to go out of the conference for this type of competition. We heard a lot of whining and bitching from dayton last year that there 25 wins against the lower two thirds of the A-10 and buy games should have counted for something. The Committee didn't see it that way, and if they don't win the game @ VCU the last week of the season, they were OUT. Schedule up in the OOC if you can't get the games in Conference!

And then they were rewarded with games in Ohio.

[xusandy]

How quickly things change! A good 10 day run for the league and suddenly we're all not talking about 5 in the dance, but 6, and a few brave souls are now posting how it could all work out so that we get 7. Well, we still have a few OOC games against the Football 5 before we get to the conference season (Butler-Purdue, Xavier-Auburn, Xavier-Wake, Creighton-Oklahoma, St. Johns-South Carolina, Depaul-Stanford, and Depaul-Northwestern.) If we can take 5 of those 7 (a tall order, IMHO), then I'll agree that 6 BEASTs in the 2016 dance looks fairly likely.

[stever20]

How quickly things change! A good 10 day run for the league and suddenly we're all not talking about 5 in the dance, but 6, and a few brave souls are now posting how it could all work out so that we get 7. Well, we still have a few OOC games against the Football 5 before we get to the conference season (Butler-Purdue, Xavier-Auburn, Xavier-Wake, Creighton-Oklahoma, St. Johns-South Carolina, Depaul-Stanford, and Depaul-Northwestern.) If we can take 5 of those 7 (a tall order, IMHO), then I'll agree that 6 BEASTs in the 2016 dance looks fairly likely.

outside of Creighton/Oklahoma and Butler/Purdue- none of those games will have much bearing at all on if the league gets 6. A FAR bigger game is Seton Hall/Wichita. It's the TEAMS that get bids to the tourney, not conferences. Right now, the 3 teams most likely to finish 6th- Seton Hall, Marquette, and Creighton, are severely lacking in the OOC aspect of things. If they do finish 6th, especially with a 9-9 or 8-10 record, it's going to be nearly impossible for them to make the tourney.

[Hall2012]

Right now, it's important for all Big East teams to play strong non-conference schedules because the league as a whole is still in the process of proving itself. You can see that from the preseason polls. Last year we started with 1 ranked team and finished with finished with 3, as well as a few other teams in and out a various points. This year, we started with 2 and we're up to 4 right now. Once people start believing in this league to the point where we're getting 3 and 4 teams in the preseason polls, scheduling a strong OOC schedule loses some importance. We obviously don't want to schedule crap, but when teams know they'll get at least 6-8 opportunities for high quality top 25 wins in conference play, it makes more sense to build the OOC schedule with quantity of wins in mind over quality. A Big East team that hits that 20 win plateau, including at least a pair over ranked conference opponents should generally be in pretty good shape.

[stever20]

Right now, it's important for all Big East teams to play strong non-conference schedules because the league as a whole is still in the process of proving itself. You can see that from the preseason polls. Last year we started with 1 ranked team and finished with finished with 3, as well as a few other teams in and out a various points. This year, we started with 2 and we're up to 4 right now. Once people start believing in this league to the point where we're getting 3 and 4 teams in the preseason polls, scheduling a strong OOC schedule loses some importance. We obviously don't want to schedule crap, but when teams know they'll get at least 6-8 opportunities for high quality top 25 wins in conference play, it makes more sense to build the OOC schedule with quantity of wins in mind over quality. A Big East team that hits that 20 win plateau, including at least a pair over ranked conference opponents should generally be in pretty good shape.

I think by and large OOC schedules have improved greatly the last 5 years nation wide. You're going to pretty much yearly have the exempt tourney with at least 2 if not 3 good games. Gavitt games for most everyone. Rivalry games. I think worst case the OOC SOS should be around 200.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Marquette puts themselves on the right side of the bubble.

Not according to RPI Forecast, who projects RPI # 154 Marquette to finish the regular season with a 18-13 record and an RPI Ranking of # 111.

Marquette this year maybe only 12 top 50 games?

RPI Forecast projects Marquette to play a total of 10 games vs. RPI Top 50 teams.

I think the Selection Committee made it clear that you have to play the Top 25/Top 50 teams and win some.

RPI Forecast projects Marquette to win 2 of 10 games vs. RPI Top 50 teams.

While Marquette is to be congratulated on their win at RPI # 107 Wisconsin, it did not put Marquette on the right side of the bubble. RPI Forecast might be wrong (or very wrong) but the Golden Eagles' projected Non-conference SOS Ranking of # 331 is not going to impress anyone on the Selection Committee.

[stever20]

The current ken pom projected conference standings are why you can't say 6 is anywhere close to a lock....
Nova 14-4
Xavier 14-4
Butler 11-7
Georgetown 9-9
PC 9-9
Seton Hall 9-9
Creighton 8-10
Marquette 8-10
DePaul 4-14
St John's 4-14

Georgetown would have 13 losses pending the UConn game
Seton Hall would have 11 losses pending the Wichita game
Creighton would have 13 losses pending the Oklahoma game
Marquette would have 12 losses.

Seton Hall and Georgetown would have the best chance if they won their crucial OOC game. But that OOC game is really make or break if that was the final standings.