Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[ohiohsbball]

I haven't chimed in on this topic in a while, but since it is almost basketball season, why not?

The rumor of Cincy and Memphis going to the B12 has been going on for the past 18 months or so, but in my opinion, I don't think the playoff will have anything to do with it. Yes, there is a very good chance the b12 gets shunned again, but that is all because of non conference; TCU and Baylor play community colleges for non conference schedules, so what does adding Memphis and Cincinnati to the conference do for that? Cincinnati is competitive, but certainly not an annual top 25 team, and this is the best year Memphis has ever had, with really only one marquee win over Ole Miss. I do think Cincinnati has future plans, because I don't see them dumping a ton of money into their football and basketball venues to stay in an AAC, which no one knows the future of.

Bottom line, I still think we are going to see the P5 go to P4; the question is who survives? The B12 or ACC? I have a lot of friends that are close to the Big 10 expansion targets and what the B10 is trying to keep secret is how desperately they want into the southern markets. Georgia Tech and Florida State have been big targets because of Atlanta and Delaney desperately wants in Florida. If the B10 and SEC raid the ACC, then in all likelihood the Pac 12 takes care of the Big 12 and then you have your power 4 conferences. With only a p5 you have someone every year being left out of the football big show, and I don't see that continuing much longer.

I know a lot of talk has calmed down, but I don't think the conference realignment is over by any stretch especially with the B10 getting ready to renegotiate a new TV contract. What is especially interesting to me is the Big12 contract with Fox. They have a nice deal, but a lot of ESPN coverage for the league has shifted to the Longhorn Network. If I can find the article I read I'll post, but a lot of Big12 teams are getting p**ed because their boys and girls basketball games are being shown on the LHN, with no one watching because not many people have access to that channel; Texas is getting a ton of money while a lot of other schools are getting nothing. Will be interesting to see how that all shakes out.

[gtmoBlue]

I haven't chimed in on this topic in a while, but since it is almost basketball season, why not?

Bottom line, I still think we are going to see the P5 go to P4; the question is who survives? The B12 or ACC? I have a lot of friends that are close to the Big 10 expansion targets and what the B10 is trying to keep secret is how desperately they want into the southern markets. Georgia Tech and Florida State have been big targets because of Atlanta and Delaney desperately wants in Florida. If the B10 and SEC raid the ACC, then in all likelihood the Pac 12 takes care of the Big 12 and then you have your power 4 conferences. With only a p5 you have someone every year being left out of the football big show, and I don't see that continuing much longer.

I know a lot of talk has calmed down, but I don't think the conference realignment is over by any stretch especially with the B10 getting ready to renegotiate a new TV contract. What is especially interesting to me is the Big12 contract with Fox. They have a nice deal, but a lot of ESPN coverage for the league has shifted to the Longhorn Network. If I can find the article I read I'll post, but a lot of Big12 teams are getting p**ed because their boys and girls basketball games are being shown on the LHN, with no one watching because not many people have access to that channel; Texas is getting a ton of money while a lot of other schools are getting nothing. Will be interesting to see how that all shakes out.

if u are correct and the B1G and SEC raid the ACC that is game-set-match. The conferences will be down to football P3, + Texas and the dwarfs. Duke to the BE.

[muskienick]

I haven't chimed in on this topic in a while, but since it is almost basketball season, why not?

Bottom line, I still think we are going to see the P5 go to P4; the question is who survives? The B12 or ACC? I have a lot of friends that are close to the Big 10 expansion targets and what the B10 is trying to keep secret is how desperately they want into the southern markets. Georgia Tech and Florida State have been big targets because of Atlanta and Delaney desperately wants in Florida. If the B10 and SEC raid the ACC, then in all likelihood the Pac 12 takes care of the Big 12 and then you have your power 4 conferences. With only a p5 you have someone every year being left out of the football big show, and I don't see that continuing much longer.

I know a lot of talk has calmed down, but I don't think the conference realignment is over by any stretch especially with the B10 getting ready to renegotiate a new TV contract. What is especially interesting to me is the Big12 contract with Fox. They have a nice deal, but a lot of ESPN coverage for the league has shifted to the Longhorn Network. If I can find the article I read I'll post, but a lot of Big12 teams are getting p**ed because their boys and girls basketball games are being shown on the LHN, with no one watching because not many people have access to that channel; Texas is getting a ton of money while a lot of other schools are getting nothing. Will be interesting to see how that all shakes out.

if u are correct and the B1G and SEC raid the ACC that is game-set-match. The conferences will be down to football P3, + Texas and the dwarfs. Duke to the BE.

I see an eventual Power-4 (4 x 16) mainly for football purposes. In such a setup, a number of schools could get left out of the fold, especially if Notre Dame finally succumbs to conference membership. Boston College, Syracuse, UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis, and/or Pitt may be on the outside looking in with BYU being one of the reasons (pushing at least one current Big 12 member to the "NEW CON."

PAC 16: ARIZONA, ASU, BYU, CAL, COLORADO, OKLAHOMA, OK ST., OREGON, ORG, ST., STANFORD, TEXAS, UCLA, USC, UTAH, WASHINGTON, WASH. ST
B1G: GA TECH, ILLINOIS, INDIANA, IOWA, MARYLAND, MICHIGAN, MICH ST., MINNESOTA, NEBRASKA, NORTHWESTERN, NOTRE DAME, OHIO STATE, PENN ST, PURDUE, RUTGERS, WISCONSIN
SEC:ALABAMA, ARKANSAS, AUBURN, FLORIDA, FLORIDA ST., GEORGIA, KENTUCKY, LSU, MISSISSIPPI, MISS ST., MISSOURI, SO CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, TEXAS A&M, TCU or BAYLOR, VANDY
NEW CON: BAYLOR or TCU, CLEMSON, DUKE, IOWA ST., KANSAS, KANSAS ST., LOUISVILLE, MIAMI, NC ST., PITT or SYRACUSE, TEXAS TECH, VIRGINIA, VA TECH, UNC, WAKE FOREST, WVU

I realize that B1G wants to get into the rich Florida recruiting area by getting Florida State into the fold, but if ND is there for the picking, they will go that route instead. If ND stays independent, then Florida State may join Ga Tech in the B1G (which would likely please Florida mightily).

[notkirkcameron]

The Big Ten (money), SEC (regional identity), and Pac-12 (regional identity) are not going anywhere. As to determinig whether the ACC or the Big 12 is the next one into the disaster zone, their problems are ironically, the inverse of each other.

The Big 12 is the smallest power five conference, and outside of the state of Texas, its biggest TV markets are arguably Kansas City (#33), and Oklahoma City (#43). It needs members, and it needs markets. The Big Ten isn't exactly salivating over the possibility of adding West Virginia.

The ACC is in the opposite position. It has 15 members (14 football), and has markets that other conferences envy. This, combined with a football-basketball tension reminiscent of the Superconference era Big East makes their members ripe for picking. As Maryland showed, everybody has their price.

Domino theory A (The ACC dies, but its remnants merge with the Top Half of the American)
Most likely version where this happens is it is initiated by the Big Ten.Greedy for Southern markets, the Big Ten grabs AAU members Virginia, Duke, Carolina, and Georgia Tech. The move effectively cuts the ACC in half geographically. Florida State, Clemson, Louisvile, and maybe Miami go to the Big 12 to bring its membership to at least 13 and maybe 14. The SEC nabs football programs with "institituional fit" Virginia Tech and NC State to bring its membership to 16. To keep up, the Pac-12 likely makes an overture to BYU and Boise State to amp up the football. The ACC is left with just 5 teams...one of whom is Notre Dame, who certainly would not want any part of this for their football program or basketball. The four non-Irish programs would be Pittsburgh, Boston College, Syracuse, and Wake Forest, The shattered remnants of the ACC would, oddly enough, still be preferable to the top half of the American. It would be decidedly "mid-major" but you can put together a pretty decent league with Syracuse, UConn, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Temple, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, South Florida, Memphis and UCF.

B10 (18 members): ILL, IND, PURD, tOSU, MSU, MICH, PSU, MINN, IOWA, NEB, NWSTN, RUTG, MARY, VIRG, GATECH, UNC, DUKE
B12 (14 members): BAY, TCU, TEX, TTECH, OKLA, OKLAST, KU, KSU, IOWA ST, WEST VA, VILLE, FLA ST, CLEM, MIAMI
P12 (14 members): WASH, WAST, OREG, ORST, STAN, CAL, UCLA, USC, ARIZ, ASU, UTAH, COLO, BYU, BOISE
SEC (16 members): MIZZ, ARK, TXAM, LSU, OLE MISS, MSU, AUB, BAMA, VANDY, TENN, UK, UGA, FLA, USC, NCST, VATECH
Midmajor ACC 2.0 (10 members): BC, CUSE, UCONN, PITT, WAKE, TEMPLE, CINCY, MEMPHIS, USF, UCF (Army? Navy? ECU? ND?)

Domino theory B (The Big 12 dies)
This is a move that is initiated by the Pac-12, seeking the Superconference it wanted in 2010. Texas and Oklahoma are top of the list. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech might be along for the ride. In this scenario, the SEC moves to grab TCU and Baylor. They don't deliver new markets but establish the SEC as THE GAME in Texas outside of UT. The Big Ten makes a move to add the Kansas City market by adding Kansas and Kansas State to bring B10 membership to 16. All that is left is Iowa State and West Virginia, who find themselves in the unenviable position with no TV markets to speak of, and less-than-successful programs. The American would be their likely destination.

B10 (16 members): ILL, IND, PURD, tOSU, MSU, MICH, PSU, MINN, IOWA, NEB, KU, K-STATE, NWSTN, RUTG, MARY
PAC-16 (16 members): WASH, WAST, OREG, ORST, STAN, CAL, UCLE, USC, ARIZ, ASU, UTAH, COLO, TX, TXTECH, OKLA, OKST
SEC (16 members): MIZZ, ARK, TXAM, BAY, TCU, LSU, OLE MISS, MSU, BAMA, AUB, UGA, FLA, USC, TENN, VANDY, UK
American (14 members): IOWA ST, SMU, HOU, TULANE, TULSA, MEMPHIS, NAVY, WEST VA, TEMPLE, UCONN, ECU, USF, UCF, CINCY

[muskienick]

notkirkcameron,

My thoughts on your suggestions:

SCENARIO A:
I count only 17 members of the Big 10 in your Domino A scenario (instead of the 18 you said were there).
To suggest that ND might ever consider becoming a member of a completely emasculated ACC just doesn't hold any water at all. Furthermore, I doubt that your mid-major ACC would even qualify for the name with only four survivors from the REAL ACC! I also doubt that Virginia and Virginia Tech will be separated.
And I sincerely believe that Domino A would be DOA since the numbers are out of balance and your Big 12 and PAC 12 would be on the prowl for cherry-picking programs from elsewhere to get to 16 themselves. Furthermore, the Big 10, with 18 (although only 17 are listed) would be too unwieldy to manage (as though 16 wouldn't be too?)
.
SCENARIO B:
I count only 15 in the Big 10 in your Domino B scenario (instead of the 16 you said were there).
Scenario B also completely leaves out the ACC.
I also cannot see any possibility of the American Conference becoming anything like a serious competitor for credibility as a Power Football Conference so why even list them with the other three you have in Scenario B, while at the same time not even including the ACC at all!

But this process is a fun exercise, especially since our own Conference has insulated itself against any such turmoil due to the guts and foresight of the "Catholic-7"!

[gtmoBlue]

notdirk...
The B1G only needs 2 to get to Superconf status (16). UVA and (GT or FSU) have been coveted and fill the bill nicely. The Carolina schools lack major B1G interest. Perhaps the SEC takes 2 also?

As for the B12 scenario. Should the PAC-12 collect UT and the Okies (and BYU) that leaves 7 schools in the wind. Baylor, KU, and ISU are the only really viable 3 schools in that 7. If the B1G had any interest, it would be KU and ISU (both AAU and research dollars)-although both suck at football. Will be interesting to see what, if anything, transpires.

[gosports1]

IMO should any of these doomsday scenarios occur, the B10 would want Syracuse before ND. (mainly since ND would want no part of them). Syracuse would get B10 into New York State. Be a 3rd team that can lay claim to the NYC market (rutgers and psu being the others) This would give the BIG another foot in the door to play games in NYC, both bb and fb

ND being ND would be able to do what they have always done, come out where they need to be. They could negotiate some deal where they keep independence but have access to the bowls. They would then have to find home for their sports not named FB. Since the new p4 would probably want all in or all out and not have much room to spare, the easiest league for the BE to join would then be the BE.

[notkirkcameron]

notkirkcameron,

My thoughts on your suggestions:

SCENARIO A:
I count only 17 members of the Big 10 in your Domino A scenario (instead of the 18 you said were there).
SCENARIO B:
I count only 15 in the Big 10 in your Domino B scenario (instead of the 16 you said were there).

Whoops. Completely forgot about Wisconsin. Wasn't intentional.


(or was it....)

[Hoya Hoya Hoya]

http://espn.go.com/blog/travis-haney/in ... st?id=4955

Houston's administration this year has publicly lobbied to eventually join the Big 12, taking the cause to legislators in Austin. David Rudd, Memphis' president, said his school has power-conference ambitions, as well. Rudd said he expects another round of realignment dominoes to fall in the next two years, and his school will be prepared for it.

2 years until the next round of realignment and I CANT WAIT

[Edrick]

http://espn.go.com/blog/travis-haney/insider/post?id=4955

2 years until the next round of realignment and I CANT WAIT

Your middle school has as much chance of Big 12 admission as Houston, I think you can safely ignore that.