Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[jaxalum]

I will not post a longwinded narrative on my opinions in regards to expansion, as to whatever I say I'm sure has been stated twenty seven different ways, while being refined, corrected, incentivized, modified, and tinkered with.

My "short" of it:

Keep it at ten. Period. Perfect round robin format.

The only two reasons to expand:

1. I don't know if Fox has the leverage/power, but if they demand it, there's really no choice, as they are paying the bills. The quintessential "gun to the head" scenario.
2. There are a few teams out there that are just obvious to the masses that you add if you can.

Uconn
Gonzaga
Notre Dame
There are a few others out there that when you hear the name, your immediate reaction is essentially "hell, yeah!".

As to the other teams that have been discussed ad nauseam (St. Louis, Dayton, etc). I like to believe that when Xavier was invited to the Big East we were joining a Major Conference. The powers that be at Xavier established a plan, laid the groundwork and infrastructure, and executed that vision over many years, and it paid off in receiving that coveted invite, along with two other well deserving institutions in the Butler Bulldogs and the Creighton Blue Jays.

My point is this. We are constantly fighting the "New" Big East stigma, fighting for respect as a POWER basketball conference to be reckoned with, and most importantly, that we are little better than a Mid Major Conference. And yet, I hear that if we expand we should add two middle of the road mid major teams out of a "decent" mid major conference (Dayton, St louis). If you want to perpetuate "the New Big East is little more than a mid major on weak steroids" narrative, then thats your obvious play. My opinion is f--- that business. If we do indeed expand, I want the team(s) to be obvious selections that instantly strengthen the perception that this is a POWER CONFERENCE. i.e. if Gonzaga suddenly relocated to the Midwest, their invitation would have been sent out yesterday. I still think the Zags are a possibility, but thats a conversation for another time. If it takes another ten to fifteen to twenty years for those schools to emerge, then so be it. As these invites are permanent, the choices have to be as close to a sure thing as possible, and the options being discussed are not even remotely close to fitting that criterion. Patience fellow conference members.

I retract my previous "longwinded" statement as I'm approaching that threshold.

One last thing. Vetoes or "blocking" has really not been discussed in depth, and could make these hundreds of pages of expansion talk relatively moot. These are my assumptions, so please correct me if Im wrong. Nova would block any of the other Philly five schools from getting in. I've heard that Georgetown would block Richmond? (may be the opposite). Would Creighton block Wichita St? And X (maybe Butler as well)would block Dayton. Any other obvious ones I'm missing? I'm not sure what the procedures and protocols are regarding the voting process, but I could see that if a school with the credentials and reputation of Gonzaga presented itself, I would find it hard to believe one school could veto such an obvious and desirable addition. I'd be interested to know from others on the board who are closer and more knowledgeable concerning the bi laws of the conference charter.

[NJRedman]

I bet there are more Ohio State fans in Cincy than X fans, or more maryland fans in DC than GTown or PSU fans in Philly than Nova fans. It doesn't matter when the TV negotiations start, it gets us into another top 25 TV market.

I can't speak for the number of Maryland Fans in DC, or Penn State fans in Philly, but this does not hold true in Cincinnati. On the Ohio side of the river there are many more UC and XU fans than OSU fans. On the Kentucky side of the river there are more UK Fans. In fact in the Cincinnati area, OSU is probably the fifth most popular college basketball team behind (Cincinnati, UK, Xavier, and Indiana). Miami (OH) and UD probably have about the same number of fans in Greater Cincinnati.

It's not even about bball fans but casual fans. I also find it hard to believe in a city in Ohio that Ohio state who has onebofvthe largest fan bases in the country is fifth. Maybe they are behind UK and maaaaybeeee Cincy but I find it hard to believe that a good chunk of Buckeye alumni don't make it to Cincy.

Rutgers has more fans in NYC that St. John's and Seton Hall. They might not be bball fans but they are fans/alumni of Rutgers. That's just the hard truth when dealing with large state schools compared to small private schools. But my point was that if we add a team from that city then the cable providers will have to add FS1 to the general sports package along with ESPN.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

The teams in the order I think the Presidents would like to invite realistically:

1. Saint Louis
2. Dayton
3. Richmond
4. Davidson

Current Candidates:

1. Saint Louis
2. Dayton
3. Richmond
4. Davidson

I hear that if we expand we should add two middle of the road mid major teams out of a "decent" mid major conference (Dayton, St. Louis).

While Dayton and Saint Louis appear to be the best “institutional fits” for possible future Big East expansion, their basketball programs are on diverging trajectories.

Dayton has fared quite well since the 10-team Big East was established, going 5-2 in the last two NCAA Tournaments, and are predicted by some to win the Atlantic 10 in 2015-16. Last night, Joel Welser picked Dayton to finish # 38 and win the Atlantic 10, despite having no seniors on the team. Consequently, Dayton should be favoured to win the Atlantic 10 in 2016-17 as well.

On the other hand, Saint Louis has faltered since the players recruited and trained by Rick Majerus graduated. The Billikens finished in 14th place in the Atlantic 10 last year, and are not predicted to be a Top 150 team this season. Saint Louis fared rather poorly prior to Rick Majerus’ arrival.

Dayton - Final RPI Rankings

2007-08 ==> 28
2008-09 ==> 26
2009-10 ==> 35
2010-11 ==> 79
2011-12 ==> 91
2012-13 ==> 115
2013-14 ==> 33
2014-15 ==> 29

Saint Louis - Final RPI Rankings

2007-08 ==> 135
2008-09 ==> 130
2009-10 ==> 81
2010-11 ==> 184
2011-12 ==> 28
2012-13 ==> 17
2013-14 ==> 24
2014-15 ==> 273
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LAST EIGHT SEASONS: Average RPI Ranking – Team (Best RPI Ranking, Worst RPI Ranking)
54.5 - Dayton (26, 115)
109.0 - Saint Louis (17, 273)

In the last eight seasons, Dayton has five Top 35 finishes and one season worse than RPI 100.
In the last eight seasons, Saint Louis has three Top 35 finishes and four seasons worse than RPI 100.
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Two-year Average RPI Ranking - Team - 2014 Final RPI Ranking - 2015 Final RPI Ranking

7 - Villanova - 8 - 6
31 - Dayton - 33 - 29
35 - Providence - 46 - 25
42 - Xavier - 56 - 28
49 - Georgetown - 75 - 24
66 - St. John's - 82 - 50
87 - Creighton - 17 - 157
92 - Butler - 154 - 30
119 - Marquette - 94 - 145
120 - Seton Hall - 136 - 105
149 - Saint Louis - 24 - 273
177 - DePaul - 157 - 197

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RPI Breakdown: 2014-15 Saint Louis Billikens (CBS Sports)

0-12 vs. RPI Top 100 teams
3-2 vs. RPI #101 to RPI #200 teams
5-7 vs. RPI #201 to RPI #300 teams

Jim Crews is clearly on the hot seat.

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Dayton also has a considerable advantage over Saint Louis (and other possible expansion candidates) in terms of fan support, TV viewership ratings, and past history with present Big East teams.

In 2015-16, the Flyers had an average home attendance of 12,000+ per game for the 16th consecutive season, while the Billikens average around 7,000 per game.

St. Louis 25th in NCAA Tourney Ratings STL Today - March 26, 2015

St. Louis isn’t much of a college basketball market to begin with. While St. Louis University has had some nice seasons recently, that follows a drought in which the Billikens didn’t make the NCAA event for 11 consecutive seasons. And while Missouri and Illinois draw big interest in St. Louis for their annual “Braggin’ Rights” matchup, the ratings these teams draw locally the rest of the time unless they are having standout seasons generally isn’t strong.

Nielsen says 7 % of St. Louis area homes with a TV tuned in, on average, to the first four days of coverage that was spread across CBS, TNT, TBS and truTV.

Louisville was the nation’s top-rated market for the tourney. Nielsen said 22.8 % of TV households there were tuning in through last weekend.

Dayton was second (17.3 %) and Cincinnati was third (15.4 %), and also benefited by having two in-town schools (Xavier and Cincinnati) in the field.

And finally, Dayton has played a total of 332 games against the 10 Big East teams – by far the most of any possible expansion candidate.

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The purpose of my lengthy post is to provide relevant verifiable information – not to annoy the BE fans who dislike Dayton.

Like most on this board, I believe that it is in the best interests of the Big East to remain at 10 teams for the foreseeable future.

I don’t see the BE ever inviting a public school to join the conference, and I don’t see Gonzaga ever being interested in joining an East Coast/Midwest conference (due to travel time and expense). That pretty much leaves Dayton, Saint Louis, and Richmond in the running for possible expansion, and at the present time, neither Saint Louis nor Richmond would add value to the Big East brand.

[AACguy]

You could make a pretty good case why Dayton and SLU should be added to the AAC as non-football members similar to those arguing for or against VCU and Wichita.

[Hoya Hoya Hoya]

You could make a pretty good case why Dayton and SLU should be added to the AAC as non-football members similar to those arguing for or against VCU and Wichita.

Not trying to be a dick but straight up laughed in my cube just now

Moving from the A10 to AAC is a lateral move at best. No stability with top teams wanting out.

[stever20]

The A10 has slipped some, and will continue to slip. In the College Sports Madness- their best team just got posted- Dayton. At #38. That's a 10 seed. AAC even last year saw their champion as a 6 seed.

Just look at the coaching in the 2 leagues. AAC has had no coaches poached in basketball. Meanwhile, A10 lost Smart, and will be losing Miller and Hurley real soon. And that doesn't even get into the recruiting.

[AACguy]

You could make a pretty good case why Dayton and SLU should be added to the AAC as non-football members similar to those arguing for or against VCU and Wichita.

Not trying to be a dick but straight up laughed in my cube just now

Moving from the A10 to AAC is a lateral move at best. No stability with top teams wanting out.

Which is sort of my point. It's clear that the Big East doesn't want SLU or Dayton. If they and VCU are considered "the top teams" in the A10 how is there any stability in that league either? They all want to join the Big East and it ain't happening. Either they need to let go of that dream or if they are serious about wanting to play elsewhere, look at options like the AAC. Selfishly, I think if we added a couple of good hoops schools we could be a pretty awesome league.

[Hoya Hoya Hoya]

You could make a pretty good case why Dayton and SLU should be added to the AAC as non-football members similar to those arguing for or against VCU and Wichita.

Not trying to be a dick but straight up laughed in my cube just now

Moving from the A10 to AAC is a lateral move at best. No stability with top teams wanting out.

Which is sort of my point. It's clear that the Big East doesn't want SLU or Dayton. If they and VCU are considered "the top teams" in the A10 how is there any stability in that league either? They all want to join the Big East and it ain't happening. Either they need to let go of that dream or if they are serious about wanting to play elsewhere, look at options like the AAC. Selfishly, I think if we added a couple of good hoops schools we could be a pretty awesome league.

Problem is the football schools that want out are also the powers in basketball. Cincy/Memphis/Uconn are always brought up in realignment discussions. AAC will be forced to bring in more football schools that might not have quality basketball programs. Maybe the bottom of the league will finally start improving but I dont see how the future of the AAC is good basketball wise.

[R Jay]

The teams in the order I think the Presidents would like to invite realistically:

1. Saint Louis
2. Dayton
3. Richmond
4. Davidson

Current Candidates:

1. Saint Louis
2. Dayton
3. Richmond
4. Davidson

I hear that if we expand we should add two middle of the road mid major teams out of a "decent" mid major conference (Dayton, St. Louis).

While Dayton and Saint Louis appear to be the best “institutional fits” for possible future Big East expansion, their basketball programs are on diverging trajectories.

Dayton has fared quite well since the 10-team Big East was established, going 5-2 in the last two NCAA Tournaments, and are predicted by some to win the Atlantic 10 in 2015-16. Last night, Joel Welser picked Dayton to finish # 38 and win the Atlantic 10, despite having no seniors on the team. Consequently, Dayton should be favoured to win the Atlantic 10 in 2016-17 as well.

On the other hand, Saint Louis has faltered since the players recruited and trained by Rick Majerus graduated. The Billikens finished in 14th place in the Atlantic 10 last year, and are not predicted to be a Top 150 team this season. Saint Louis fared rather poorly prior to Rick Majerus’ arrival.

Dayton - Final RPI Rankings

2007-08 ==> 28
2008-09 ==> 26
2009-10 ==> 35
2010-11 ==> 79
2011-12 ==> 91
2012-13 ==> 115
2013-14 ==> 33
2014-15 ==> 29

Saint Louis - Final RPI Rankings

2007-08 ==> 135
2008-09 ==> 130
2009-10 ==> 81
2010-11 ==> 184
2011-12 ==> 28
2012-13 ==> 17
2013-14 ==> 24
2014-15 ==> 273
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LAST EIGHT SEASONS: Average RPI Ranking – Team (Best RPI Ranking, Worst RPI Ranking)
54.5 - Dayton (26, 115)
109.0 - Saint Louis (17, 273)

In the last eight seasons, Dayton has five Top 35 finishes and one season worse than RPI 100.
In the last eight seasons, Saint Louis has three Top 35 finishes and four seasons worse than RPI 100.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Two-year Average RPI Ranking - Team - 2014 Final RPI Ranking - 2015 Final RPI Ranking

7 - Villanova - 8 - 6
31 - Dayton - 33 - 29
35 - Providence - 46 - 25
42 - Xavier - 56 - 28
49 - Georgetown - 75 - 24
66 - St. John's - 82 - 50
87 - Creighton - 17 - 157
92 - Butler - 154 - 30
119 - Marquette - 94 - 145
120 - Seton Hall - 136 - 105
149 - Saint Louis - 24 - 273
177 - DePaul - 157 - 197

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RPI Breakdown: 2014-15 Saint Louis Billikens (CBS Sports)

0-12 vs. RPI Top 100 teams
3-2 vs. RPI #101 to RPI #200 teams
5-7 vs. RPI #201 to RPI #300 teams

Jim Crews is clearly on the hot seat.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dayton also has a considerable advantage over Saint Louis (and other possible expansion candidates) in terms of fan support, TV viewership ratings, and past history with present Big East teams.

In 2015-16, the Flyers had an average home attendance of 12,000+ per game for the 16th consecutive season, while the Billikens average around 7,000 per game.

St. Louis 25th in NCAA Tourney Ratings STL Today - March 26, 2015

St. Louis isn’t much of a college basketball market to begin with. While St. Louis University has had some nice seasons recently, that follows a drought in which the Billikens didn’t make the NCAA event for 11 consecutive seasons. And while Missouri and Illinois draw big interest in St. Louis for their annual “Braggin’ Rights” matchup, the ratings these teams draw locally the rest of the time unless they are having standout seasons generally isn’t strong.

Nielsen says 7 % of St. Louis area homes with a TV tuned in, on average, to the first four days of coverage that was spread across CBS, TNT, TBS and truTV.

Louisville was the nation’s top-rated market for the tourney. Nielsen said 22.8 % of TV households there were tuning in through last weekend.

Dayton was second (17.3 %) and Cincinnati was third (15.4 %), and also benefited by having two in-town schools (Xavier and Cincinnati) in the field.

And finally, Dayton has played a total of 332 games against the 10 Big East teams – by far the most of any possible expansion candidate.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The purpose of my lengthy post is to provide relevant verifiable information – not to annoy the BE fans who dislike Dayton.

Like most on this board, I believe that it is in the best interests of the Big East to remain at 10 teams for the foreseeable future.

I don’t see the BE ever inviting a public school to join the conference, and I don’t see Gonzaga ever being interested in joining an East Coast/Midwest conference (due to travel time and expense). That pretty much leaves Dayton, Saint Louis, and Richmond in the running for possible expansion, and at the present time, neither Saint Louis nor Richmond would add value to the Big East brand.

Let's just say that Saint Louis is on a downward trajectory because of one bad season and forget that they graduated a really good senior class like Creighton did last year. Let's also not look at their last two recruiting classes and just claim that they're not very good either. Great idea bro! /sarcasm

[stever20]

The problem with SLU is that the man responsible for their really good senior class from 2 years ago is no longer with us, and the man at the helm right now is not a good coach at all. SLU has got to get back to being respectable before they would have a chance IMO.

I'd say this as well, if SLU and Dayton's performances were opposite- with SLU having performed like Dayton the last 8 years- they would quite possibly be in the Big East now.