Summer Musings

[stever20]

well I think today proves what we were saying about the SEC. It's not SEC basketball of the 80's that's for sure.

[marquette]

Yes, stever, the sky is falling because Auburn got a couple nice recruits.

In 2003 Mississippi had the #10 recruiting class, LSU #2, Arkansas #11, Missouri #4.
In 2004 Arkansas was #6, Missouri #21, Alabama #23, Mississippi State #25, LSU #26.
In 2005 Mississippi State #4, Alabama #10, Georgia #11, LSU #13, Auburn #22.
In 2006 Tennessee #10, Arkansas #18.
In 2007 Alabama #13.
In 2008 Tennessee #5, Alabama #12, Arkansas #22.
In 2009 Alabama #21, Mississippi #26.
In 2010 Tennessee #7, Missouri #13, Alabama #19, LSU #29, Auburn #32.
In 2011 Arkansas #7, Alabama #9, Mississippi State #14
In 2012 you got me, but even then a #35 Auburn squad pulled 1 top 100 recruit and a guy ranked 106.
In 2013 LSU #5, Arkansas #13, Missouri #19, Alabama #26.
In 2014 Missouri #13, Alabama #24, Auburn #30.
In 2015 Auburn #19, Mississippi State #20.

What can we glean from this? SEC teams are going to pull good players to mediocre SEC programs. Happens every year.

EDIT: Numbers from 247sports.com

[stever20]

Yes, stever, the sky is falling because Auburn got a couple nice recruits.

In 2003 Mississippi had the #10 recruiting class, LSU #2, Arkansas #11, Missouri #4.
In 2004 Arkansas was #6, Missouri #21, Alabama #23, Mississippi State #25, LSU #26.
In 2005 Mississippi State #4, Alabama #10, Georgia #11, LSU #13, Auburn #22.
In 2006 Tennessee #10, Arkansas #18.
In 2007 Alabama #13.
In 2008 Tennessee #5, Alabama #12, Arkansas #22.
In 2009 Alabama #21, Mississippi #26.
In 2010 Tennessee #7, Missouri #13, Alabama #19, LSU #29, Auburn #32.
In 2011 Arkansas #7, Alabama #9, Mississippi State #14
In 2012 you got me, but even then a #35 Auburn squad pulled 1 top 100 recruit and a guy ranked 106.
In 2013 LSU #5, Arkansas #13, Missouri #19, Alabama #26.
In 2014 Missouri #13, Alabama #24, Auburn #30.
In 2015 Auburn #19, Mississippi State #20.

What can we glean from this? SEC teams are going to pull good players to mediocre SEC programs. Happens every year.

EDIT: Numbers from 247sports.com

The SEC had 9 teams with top 40 recruiting classes this past year. Eventually if you do that enough, you are going to have your conference get better and better and better.

The SEC is getting much better in basketball.

I'm not saying the sky is falling, but this recruit is showing that the landscape is WAY different than it was back in the 80's when the Catholic schools were doing as well as they were.

last 10 years- SEC teams have had 14 elite 8's, with 3 titles, a final game, and 7 final 4's... In the 80's they had 8 elite 8's TOTAL.
compare to the Catholic schools.
last 10 years- had 8 elite 8's with 2 final 4's. In the 80's they had 16 elite 8's with 7 final 4's and 2 titles.

[stever20]

the thing about Heron- and the point that I'm trying to make-- a kid like Heron back 20-30 years ago very likely goes to St John's. Now, he's going to the SEC. When you're asked why the Catholic schools have struggled so much recently I think that's a pretty darn good example showing what the difference is in 2015

furthermore- I'd say look at the guys of the 80s. If the 80's top players were hs kids today, where do they go? Would a Patrick Ewing circa 2015 go to Georgetown? I unfortunately seriously doubt it.

[GumbyDamnit!]

The SEC had 9 teams with top 40 recruiting classes this past year. Eventually if you do that enough, you are going to have your conference get better and better and better.

The SEC is getting much better in basketball.

I'm not saying the sky is falling, but this recruit is showing that the landscape is WAY different than it was back in the 80's when the Catholic schools were doing as well as they were.

last 10 years- SEC teams have had 14 elite 8's, with 3 titles, a final game, and 7 final 4's... In the 80's they had 8 elite 8's TOTAL.
compare to the Catholic schools.
last 10 years- had 8 elite 8's with 2 final 4's. In the 80's they had 16 elite 8's with 7 final 4's and 2 titles.

Here we go again. OK, Stever let's take a closer look and see just how hollow your numbers are...

1). UK is UK. No one will argue with you that they are not a GREAT program. They are a BB school and always have been. They've got a great recruiter in place and they should be a force for as long as he is there.
2). FL was terrible before Donovan came on board. WITH Donovan FL has been very, very good. He is no longer there. Uh-oh.
3). Take those two teams out of the mix and exactly two other programs (out of 14) have made the E8 (once each) in the last 10 years. Tenn (who have been below average since Pearl left) & Mizzou (who just happened to win 3 conf games last year).

Now on the BE side I absolutely LOVE how you conveniently left out Butler and made it an argument about the "Catholic schools" vs the SEC schools. When you add in Butler's 2 FF's you realize that half of the league has made the E8 (Marq, Butler, Nova, G'town & X), and 30% of the teams have made the FF in the last 10 years. So in a 10 team league more schools have made it to both a regional final and FF than the the 14 team league. But wait your #'s suggest that the SEC is a superior league. Again Stever pulls the data his way, to fit his argument.

Outside of UK and FL the SEC has been mostly dreadful. Your defense of that conference reminds me of the same defense of the AAC. The 2 or so teams at the top of the conference support your entire argument and you turn a complete blind eye to slop at the bottom who have done absolutely nothing of note for years and years.

Lastly when you point to recruiting rankings, there is no guarantee that it will translate. FL is going to take a step back without Donovan. No question there. Auburn will probably improve under Pearl because he is completely shady. That's probably the reason he got Herron to commit. (yep, I said it.) It will be a matter of time before it catches up to him. Will LSU survive after their one-and-dones leave after next season? Of course not. It will be a one year run. Will any of the traditional FB schools really commit long term to BB. I seriously doubt it.

Stop it already.

[MUBoxer]

The SEC had 9 teams with top 40 recruiting classes this past year. Eventually if you do that enough, you are going to have your conference get better and better and better.

The SEC is getting much better in basketball.

I'm not saying the sky is falling, but this recruit is showing that the landscape is WAY different than it was back in the 80's when the Catholic schools were doing as well as they were.

last 10 years- SEC teams have had 14 elite 8's, with 3 titles, a final game, and 7 final 4's... In the 80's they had 8 elite 8's TOTAL.
compare to the Catholic schools.
last 10 years- had 8 elite 8's with 2 final 4's. In the 80's they had 16 elite 8's with 7 final 4's and 2 titles.

Here we go again. OK, Stever let's take a closer look and see just how hollow your numbers are...

1). UK is UK. No one will argue with you that they are not a GREAT program. They are a BB school and always have been. They've got a great recruiter in place and they should be a force for as long as he is there.
2). FL was terrible before Donovan came on board. WITH Donovan FL has been very, very good. He is no longer there. Uh-oh.
3). Take those two teams out of the mix and exactly two other programs (out of 14) have made the E8 (once each) in the last 10 years. Tenn (who have been below average since Pearl left) & Mizzou (who just happened to win 3 conf games last year).

Now on the BE side I absolutely LOVE how you conveniently left out Butler and made it an argument about the "Catholic schools" vs the SEC schools. When you add in Butler's 2 FF's you realize that half of the league has made the E8 (Marq, Butler, Nova, G'town & X), and 30% of the teams have made the FF in the last 10 years. So in a 10 team league more schools have made it to both a regional final and FF than the the 14 team league. But wait your #'s suggest that the SEC is a superior league. Again Stever pulls the data his way, to fit his argument.

Outside of UK and FL the SEC has been mostly dreadful. Your defense of that conference reminds me of the same defense of the AAC. The 2 or so teams at the top of the conference support your entire argument and you turn a complete blind eye to slop at the bottom who have done absolutely nothing of note for years and years.

Lastly when you point to recruiting rankings, there is no guarantee that it will translate. FL is going to take a step back without Donovan. No question there. Auburn will probably improve under Pearl because he is completely shady. That's probably the reason he got Herron to commit. (yep, I said it.) It will be a matter of time before it catches up to him. Will LSU survive after their one-and-dones leave after next season? Of course not. It will be a one year run. Will any of the traditional FB schools really commit long term to BB. I seriously doubt it.

Stop it already.

I don't wanna be "that guy" but LSU made the FF in 06 that was in your 10yr parameter.

And while Donovan took Florida to blue blood status he inherited a program from Lon Kruger that was a year from a final four appearance and coming off an ncaa tournament bid. Yes they were terrible before Kruger but it's like saying Bo Ryan built Wisconsin when he took over a program coming off a final four,they both just capitalized off it.

The sec will always be Kentucky and another team. LSU was a monster in the 80s, Arkansas was even better than Kentucky in the 90s, Florida has been Florida the past 15. (Plus Tennessee has been no slouch the past 15 years either).

[stever20]

My point is simple though...

Catholic schools(what Bill Marsh built this thread on) are having to compete against at the top a MUCH tougher SEC than what was around back in the 80's. Like I said- 80's 8 elite 8's. Last 10 years- 14. It doesn't matter if it's just Kentucky and Florida- the fact is that the top level SEC block is much different now than in the 80's. Kentucky last 10 years MUCH different than Kentucky was in the 80's.

If you go just Big East.... last 10 years Big East has had all of 7 elite 8's and 4 final 4's.

Your post Gumby brings up an interesting point. It's a very interesting difference between dominating teams and more parity. I feel that's a to each their own preference type of argument.... Big East has by far more parity, SEC has by far more good teams.

Regarding the question you have about will any of the traditional FB schools really commit long term to BB.... I think they will. There's only so much money that you can spend on football. Given that their money is doubling, where are they going to spend the money? I think basketball is a pretty obvious answer. Looking at the hires being made around the SEC, it's pretty evident that's what's happening.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I think it is hard to say that the BE will trail these types of schools just because of $. There are many factors that go into the equation. I think that the BE can tout that these BB kids will be the top dog on campus. I would expect many recruits are be turned off by thinking that if they went to Alabama or Auburn that they'll always be 2nd fiddle (by a lot). Also there is something to be said for smaller sized schools. Not every kid is dying to go to a school with 35,000 others.

There is no doubt that money has changed college athletics. $ leads to good facilities and high paid coaches, etc. I get that. There are also now brands tied to specific alums that are literally carrying schools to the top through direct involvement (Oregon and Nike, Maryland and Under Armour). So I don't think that dynamic will ever change but may get even worse. UK being good is not a new phenomenon. They won before Calipari and they'll win after him. Same with Duke IMO. Same with Carolina. Same with Kansas. They are blue blood programs. There are 4-5 of those and the next 25-30 are all battling it out for consistent relevancy. I put teams like Nova and G'town, maybe X (potentially Marq and Butler) in this mix. Always in or around the Top 25-30. Each conf has 3-4 of these programs. So if the SEC schools displace other programs in that next tier it won't just be at the expense of the BE schools. The B1G, Pac, ACC or Big XII would not be immune either if that were the case.

FL will be interesting to watch b/c they clearly have been a great program for that conference. Not sure they maintain that same level of success. So they may pass a school like Auburn as they head down the ladder and Auburn moves up. All of the others are wait and see. LSU has a proud tradition and can certainly return to prominence. But right now, other than UK, show me the program that you are convinced will be better than Nova and G'town in the next decade. For all of the great recruiting going on in the SEC almost every program in the BE is also talking about how thrilled they are with the talent coming in. Marq brought in a top 10 kid, Nova brought in the best PG in the nation, G'town has had two straight ridiculously talented classes. SHU had their best class in years in 2014. Creighton is now getting top 100 talent, etc. And if Marq returns to where they were 4-5 years ago (which appears likely with Wojo) and X continues to be X there are 4 consistently good programs. I would expect each to make the tourney 80% of the time. And I'm not even bringing up Butler who went to 2 finals in the past decade who could do the same.

So for all the "sky is falling" because the SEC is getting better, I don't think it is necessarily at the expense of the BE specifically. Nova fans cannot believe the amount of talent that this new conference has brought us. Maybe Jalen Brunson and Omari Spellman didn't get memo about the SEC.

[MUBoxer]

LSU will be the new number two in that conference. They've been recruting at a ridiculous level in 2013 and 2015, plus a decent get in 2014.

[marquette]

There are 4-5 of those and the next 25-30 are all battling it out for consistent relevancy. I put teams like Nova and G'town, maybe X (potentially Marq and Butler) in this mix. Always in or around the Top 25-30. Each conf has 3-4 of these programs.

Last year was our first year since 1998 that we were below .500. I seem to recall that during that stretch Nova went 15-16 and 13-19 in '02-'03 and '11-'12. Under your current coach. Georgetown went 13-14 in '03-'04, 16-15 in '08-'09, and 18-15 in '13-14. In '12-'13 Xavier went 17-14, 17-12 in '04-'05. We've also been to the elite 8 more recently than any of those programs.

And if Marq returns to where they were 4-5 years ago (which appears likely with Wojo) and X continues to be X there are 4 consistently good programs.

Or, you know, 3 years ago when we went to the elite 8.