Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[billyjack]

I'm just going to toss this out there, since this thread has been re-kindled... (I had put this together a while ago, but held off posting it cuz expansion talk was getting annoying)...

I think a huge intangible regarding BE expansion candidates is historic ties. Creighton, in addition to being a great school, having a great athletic program, great attendance, perennial Top-20 seasons and post season play, also had played vs the original C-7 in a bunch of games throughout their history... 40 games vs Marquette, 20 vs DePaul, 12 vs Xavier, 10 vs Providence, and handfuls against the others. There was a familiarity factor that I think really went a long way... something the C-7 wouldn't have as easily with say Wichita State (all things being equal).

Anyway, with historic ties in mind, below is a list of the most games vs opponents for each current Big East school (minimum 15 games)...
I looked at each of our 10 BE schools' historic head-to-head opponents.
Then I removed schools that weren't realistic additions in this manner:
- I removed any so-called Power-5 schools.
- I removed any former Big East member (with the thought that UConn for example would be added if available anyway).
- I removed any school that doubles up a current Big East market... so no URI, no Loyola Chicago, no St Joseph's, etc.
- I removed any Ivy League school, since they're staying together for certain.

Anyway, this was the breakdown by BE team:

BIG EAST TEAM
Opponent - numbers of games against. (I've included opponents played 15+ times).

VILLANOVA.
Duquesne - 41.
St Bonaventure - 32.
Canisius - 26.
Niagara - 23.
Detroit Mercy - 16.

ST JOHN'S.
Niagara - 62.
Holy Cross - 25.
Davidson - 17.

GEORGETOWN.
Navy - 29.
Holy Cross - 18.
Fairfield - 15.

SETON HALL.
Iona - 35.
Army - 23.
Niagara - 19.
Holy Cross - 18.
St Bonaventure - 18.

PROVIDENCE.
Holy Cross - 48.
Canisius - 25.
UMass - 25.
Niagara - 25.
St Bonaventure - 23.
Fairfield - 16.

MARQUETTE.
Detroit Mercy - 56.
Saint Louis - 48.
Dayton - 35.
Memphis - 26.
Charlotte - 23.
Air Force - 20.
UAB - 20.
Tulane - 19.
Bowling Green - 18.
Bradley - 18.
Drake - 18.
Valparaiso - 18.
Western Michigan - 17.

DePAUL.
Dayton - 67.
Saint Louis - 39.
UAB - 32.
Bradley - 28.
Memphis - 26.
Northern Illinois - 25.
Duquesne - 23.
Charlotte - 20.
Illinois State - 20.
Niagara - 19.
Detroit Mercy - 17.
St Bonaventure - 17.
Bowling Green - 15.

BUTLER.
Detroit Mercy - 68.
Valparaiso - 59.
Evansville - 54.
Indiana State - 51.
Ball State - 50.
Green Bay - 46.
Wright State - 43.
Cleveland State - 39.
Saint Louis - 29.
Western Kentucky - 24.
Youngstown State - 24.
Bradley - 22.
Dayton - 21.
Toledo - 20.
Oral Roberts - 16.

CREIGHTON.
Drake - 101.
Wichita State - 94.
Southern Illinois - 89.
Bradley - 86.
Indiana State - 79.
Illinois State - 71.
Missouri State - 59.
Tulsa - 53.
Northern Iowa - 46.
Evansville - 39.
New Mexico State - 15.

XAVIER.
Dayton - 132.
Miami of Ohio - 87.
Detroit Mercy - 78.
Duquesne - 46.
Saint Louis - 40.
St Bonaventure - 40.
Evansville - 36.
UMass - 24.
Western Kentucky - 23.
Canisius - 21.
Oral Roberts - 18.
Richmond - 18.
Eastern Kentucky - 15.

- - - - - - -

So, these are the schools that played at least 3 Big East teams in 15+ games in their history:

Bradley - 154 games vs 4 BE teams
(Creighton 86, DePaul 28, Butler 22, Marquette 18).

Canisius - 72 games vs 3 BE teams
(Villanova 26, Providence 25, Xavier 21).

Dayton - 255 games vs 4 BE teams
(Xavier 132, DePaul 67, Marquette 35, Butler 21).

Detroit Mercy - 235 games vs 5 BE teams
(Xavier 78, Butler 68, Marquette 56, DePaul 17, Villanova 16).

Duquesne - 110 games vs 3 BE teams
(Xavier 46, Villanova 41, DePaul 23).

Evansville - 129 games vs 3 BE teams
(Butler 54, Creighton 39, Xavier 36).

Holy Cross - 109 games vs 4 BE teams
(Providence 48, St John's 25, Georgetown 18, Seton Hall 18).

Niagara - 148 games vs 5 BE teams
(St John's 62, Providence 25, Villanova 23, DePaul 19, Seton Hall 19).

Saint Louis - 156 games vs 4 BE teams
(Marquette 48, Xavier 40, DePaul 39, Butler 29).

St Bonaventure - 130 games vs 5 BE teams
(Xavier 40, Villanova 32, Providence 23, Seton Hall 18, DePaul 17).

- - - - - - -

So, not that some of these schools are realistic (Evansville, Bradley), but some of these candidates have played boatloads of games against us. In the slim chance that Detroit Mercy (235 games vs 5 difference BE teams) goes on a 6-year Gonzaga-esque run, I would think that their name would be tossed around pretty easily... whereas a similar 6-year run by say by Davidson wouldn't have the same weight due to unfamiliarity. And with Dayton, they get a lot of grief on this board, but 4 BE teams have played them 255 total times... so they're the leaders... wow.

Anyway, I'm just talking out loud and tossing this information out there.

[trephin]

re: UConn's finances

Has everyone seen actual numbers? how much does football really drain the school? what is the AAC rules with bowls? are they shared equally? even if UConn never gets into the P5, can the occasional playoff once a decade or so plus the conference's other school's bowls be enough maybe not to be in the black but enough to not be a sink hole especially in the non financial argument how football is advertising?

I suspect that the investment is too great for them to ever give up football.

oh, and is it really their academics keeping them out of the B1G as opposed to just on field success? They may not be AAU but I always thought their academics were pretty sharp?

Are you serious? There is very little chance a AAC team let alone any G5 team makes the playoff.

Any chance is a chance. But truthfully, i was thinking of the 3 at large bowls. Either way, can UConn survive financially ? again, maybe not in the black but close enough that football isn't really threatened?

[Gopher+RamFan]

I think the best options if the Big East Conference should expand to 12 schools are Saint Louis University (between Creighton and the rest of the Big East former rivals of DePaul and Marquette) and the University of Connecticut (Storrs, CT, if they go back to FCS) or Saint Joseph's University (Philadelphia, PA) or Duquesne University of the Holy Spirit (Pittsburgh, PA) or Siena College (suburban Albany, NY) or Canisius College (Buffalo, NY) or College of the Holy Cross (Worcester, MA, original Big East Conference founding invitee). I cannot picture the Big East Conference having more Midwest schools than Northeastern schools, as Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's and Villanova would never accept that, which eliminates University of Dayton as a possibility.

Don't want to offend, but if the Big East chooses one of those teams outside Of Dayton/SLU (obviously UCONN is out) I'm going to end my casual viewership of BE basketball. That would signal above all else the conference is not interested in performance, but some watered down archaic version of a vision from the 1970s of what the Big East should be.

Outside of UCONN the decent/good options are: Dayton, SLU and VCU (UR doesn't bring anything to the table, but I admit I'm openly biased).

1. Dayton: loyal fanbase, some recent success but it's all under Archie. This is not a WSU/VCU scenario where the coaches leading up to this moment for Dayton have had NCAA appearances. I'm more worried about Dayton sans Archie than VCU without Shaka. Dayton watches basketball, the thing is they watch any basketball. Their DMA is consistently rated in ESPN's top 10 for CBB viewing. Will ratings spike if Dayton joins the BE, or have they been watching it anyways? Will a national audience want to watch Dayton?

I think Dayton has the inside track if X allows it. Private institution, loyal fanbase and enough recent success to not make the national media blast the pick.

2. SLU: private institution, great arena, great tv market. Needless to say, SLU doesn't carry the Saint Louis market. I'm not sure they can even make a dent, but I can see Georgetown/Nova/X and Butler coming to town and making it a big event. Saint Louis loves it's sports! and CBB happens in a down time (after the Rams but before the Cards, only competing with the Blues) but I'm not sure if the population has enough ties to the university. A strong decade run of winning seasons/NCAA wins can easily change that. The problem is, and I've said this before years ago, I don't trust Coach Crews. I dont trust their AD to make the correct hiring choices and there is not as much pressure on the athletic department. No prospective school should dip into the RPI 250s.

If the Big East isn't expanding for a few years (which looks like the correct choice) than it gives SLU a good chance to try to boost it's perception and prospective success. The market, combined with private institution and a nice bridge to Creighton gives them a great chance.

3. VCU: it goes without saying that it's a public institution, everyone understands. VCU has strong on the court success through 3 separate coaches over the last decade, no fewer than 24 in each of the last 10 years. It is the only school (out of 14 D1s) to go to 5 straight NCAAs. Obviously none of that matters if Will Wade leads them to a 10-21 season this year. The last time VCU ended the season outside of the RPI top 100, I wasn't legally able to drive. VCU should remain competitive, and will open a $25 million dollar basketball only Practice Facility in two months. If the Big East is looking to add a school that has shown a dedication to CBB, VCU is the choice. VCU matched Texas' initial $2.6 and $2.8 million/year offers to Shaka Smart, so the money, donor levels, dedication are all there. VCU consistently has the most fans in New York for their conference tournament, which is a big deal for the Big East. VCU will instantly make 32,000 student;100,000+ alumni and 17,000 connected to the Big East Conference.

The biggest indicator of VCU's ability to garners sponsorships, viewing , potential etc... Is. Learfield Sports' recent $20 million deal with the school. Learfield also has contracts with SLU and Richmond, but those numbers haven't been publicized. VCU's $2 million/year deal rivals Georgetown's $1-3 million/year (based on performance) deal with FS. As most can guess, schools will publicize or let slip great contracts, so it's reasonable to assume UR and SLU's deals are not that high

VCU remains a longshot, depending on if the Big East decides to invite a public. I still think Dayton and SLU are the leaders, but if Will Wade coaches VCU to success in the NCAAs, the on the court success, media deals and fanbase/student population may overcome this.


Others: UR doesn't have enough success, not a large following and doesn't command a market that is already somewhat small compared to SLU's. The biggest thing they have going for them is being an eastern private school used to balance out SLU without X blocking them (hey Dayton). UR has a great arena, but is lacking in most other basketball criteria.

Davidson: great program, great coach, great location. Problem is the coach isn't getting any younger and the school isn't getting any larger. Adding a 1,500 student population will do next to nothing to help the Big East. I'm afraid that when McKillop retires that program will go through great instability, like any program would when their coaches of decades leaves.

Please feel free to add anything, I'm coming from a VCU/Virginia point of view and understand it's not representative of what everyone's thinking.

[billyjack]

Someone asked this a while back... how does "Duquesne University of the Holy Spirit" fit their name on their uniform.

[marquette]

Someone asked this a while back... how does "Duquesne University of the Holy Spirit" fit their name on their uniform.

All players get "Duquesne" and then the starters each get one of the other 5 words, depending on order of importance.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

I think a huge intangible regarding BE expansion candidates is historic ties. Creighton … also had played vs the original C-7 in a bunch of games throughout their history ...

40 games vs Marquette, 20 vs DePaul, 12 vs Xavier, 10 vs Providence, and handfuls against the others.

There was a familiarity factor that I think really went a long way... something the C-7 wouldn't have as easily with say Wichita State.

So, these are the schools that played at least 3 Big East teams in 15+ games in their history:

Dayton - 255 games vs 4 BE teams
(Xavier 132, DePaul 67, Marquette 35, Butler 21).

And with Dayton, they get a lot of grief on this board, but 4 BE teams have played them 255 total times... so they're the leaders... wow.

billyjack – thank you for your excellent and informative post. The work you put into it is much appreciated, but I would like to correct a few of your numbers concerning the Dayton Flyers (sources: Dayton Flyers Men's Basketball and the Dayton Flyers 2014-15 Media Guide published by the UD Athletic Department).

Dayton - 283 games vs 4 BE teams
(Xavier 158, DePaul 69, Marquette 35, Butler 21)

Dayton also has a history against the other 6 Big East teams, playing them a total of 49 times:

Creighton - 10 games
St. John’s - 10 games
Seton Hall - 9 games
Villanova - 9 games
Providence - 8 games
Georgetown - 3 games

Therefore, Dayton has played a total of 332 games against the 10 Big East teams.

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Gopher+RamFan – another excellent post.

Outside of UCONN the decent/good options are: Dayton, SLU and VCU.

1. Dayton: loyal fanbase, some recent success but it's all under Archie.

This is not a WSU/VCU scenario where the coaches leading up to this moment for Dayton have had NCAA appearances.

Actually, EVERY Dayton head coach since the 1947-48 season has lead the Flyers to the NCAA Tournament (highlighted by Don Donoher’s team which lost to John Wooden’s UCLA Bruins in the 1967 NCAA National Championship game). Not many schools outside the P5 conferences can make such a claim.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Very insightful analysis by Frank - as always.

http://frankthetank.me/2015/07/29/big-12-expansion-or-contraction-watch-out-for-oklahoma/

[Gopher+RamFan]

-----------------------------------

Gopher+RamFan – another excellent post.

Outside of UCONN the decent/good options are: Dayton, SLU and VCU.

1. Dayton: loyal fanbase, some recent success but it's all under Archie.

This is not a WSU/VCU scenario where the coaches leading up to this moment for Dayton have had NCAA appearances.

Actually, EVERY Dayton head coach since the 1947-48 season has lead the Flyers to the NCAA Tournament (highlighted by Don Donoher’s team which lost to John Wooden’s UCLA Bruins in the 1967 NCAA National Championship game). Not many schools outside the P5 conferences can make such a claim.

While that's impressive, it also spans only 5 coaches over 53 years. No one would call Gregory's 2 appearances out of 11; or Purnell's 2 out of 9; or 1/5 from O'brien impressive.

I am impressed by Donahue's 8 out of 24 and Archie's 2 out of 4 however. I think WSU and VCU have had a stronger coaching staff in recent (10 years) times. Of course it looks like Dayton keeps their coaches longer than some (whether they're just good enough not to be fired, or they've been able to fend off other programs trying to poach their coach).

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

No one would call Gregory's 2 appearances out of 11; or Purnell's 2 out of 9; or 1/5 from O'Brien impressive.

No one did. I merely pointed out that they made NCAA Tournament appearances.

I think WSU and VCU have had a stronger coaching staff in recent (10 years) times.

That opinion is unquestionably correct.

Of course it looks like Dayton keeps their coaches longer than some (whether they're just good enough not to be fired, or they've been able to fend off other programs trying to poach their coach).

Tom Blackburn died of cancer while still head coach at UD, and his assistant Don Donoher was promoted to the top job.

Donoher and his successor Jim O'Brien were subsequently fired. Oliver Purnell and Brian Gregory were both on the hot seat at UD before they made wise decisions to move on. Archie Miller already makes well over €2M per year on a contract which expires in 2022, and reportedly has a huge buy-out clause.

Archie's father (a legendary Pennsylvania HS basketball coach) and brother Sean Miller have reportedly advised Archie to remain at Dayton and continue to build a strong resume until a Top 15 coaching position becomes available through the retirement of a present 'big name' coach. Ohio State (Thad Matta), Michigan State (Tom Izzo), Indiana (Tom Crean), and Louisville (Rick Pitino) have all been mentioned as possible 'destination' jobs for Archie when the time comes, which would likely be a number of years from now.

The immediate concern of the Flyer Faithful is the Wisconsin job, as Bo Ryan has announced that he will retire after the 2015-16 season, leaving a very solid program behind. It remains to be seen if there will be any mutual interest between Archie and the Badgers.

On paper, the 2015-16 Dayton Flyers appear to be Archie's best team yet, and with only one scholarshipped senior on this season's roster, the 2016-17 Flyers could be even better.

The Flyers should be favored to make the NCAA Tournament the next two seasons, and quite possibly extend that streak into the future.

When Archie does leave Dayton, the Flyers basketball program will be in an excellent position to hire a very promising head coach.

[BEX]

It's been 2 years already. You UD fans need to move on. It ain't happening. No need.